Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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1030. ncstorm
Rain...and lots of it this morning!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
1029. hydrus
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Beryl finally fell apart:


Might not make TD by NC after all:
Good morning. Beryl could become quite a storm when it moves out over the far Atlantic...Our trough is still looking rather potent..
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1028. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

she is not really falling apart it just her center starting to feel the water becoming unstable looking like its dying but after a few hour over water she will regain her strength
she is done kid thats it warm waters are close to shore after that she will need a sweater
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54623
1027. Brock31
1001 mb here and still falling
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Good Morning All
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1025. pcola57
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


that is an old picture, see the one i posted above for what it looks like now.


By Georgia your right!!
LOL...I will see if I can come up with the new one from Naval Labs.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Beryl finally fell apart:


Might not make TD by NC after all:

she is not really falling apart it just her center starting to feel the water becoming unstable looking like its dying but after a few hour over water she will regain her strength
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12180
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning Beryl



that is an old picture, see the one i posted above for what it looks like now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9732
1022. pcola57
.
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Today(10%T/ 45%W/ 45%H):


Tomorrow:


Friday:


You could probably continue the 30%risk from where it is tomorrow to where it is on friday given that night storms are not always displayed well on convective outlooks.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9732
1020. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
02L DEACTIVATE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54623
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That would be nice send it this way and let it go thru Texas. Going to be difficult though with that big ridge of High Pressure out West of me.


There is a front that is supposed to move offshore this Friday but washout and return north
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting pcola57:
It's 80 degrees,humid @ 76% here at 8:10 am local..uggghhh


Same here, no wind, uncomfortable
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Derived from ATCF data for TropicalDepressionBeryl on 30May12pmGMT:
MaxSusWinds have held steady at 30knots
MinimumPressure has decreased from 1002millibars to 1001millibars
The ENEasternmost dot on the connected lines is TDBeryl's most recent ATCF position, 33.7n78.8w

TDBeryl was moving a bit faster than could be derived from combining the most recent ATCF and NHCAdvisory positions,
and a bit to the north of a straightline projection though those ATCF and NHCAdvisory positions.
Should have made NorthCarolina landfall by now near 60J OceanIsleBeach,
and should soon head out to sea again after passing about midway between ILM Wilmington and 03NC CarolinaBeach.

The previous mapping from 30May6amGMT
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Missed Beryl by that much....
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Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY AMPLIFYING A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL, IN TURN, PULL LARGE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB SEA NORTH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SO DECIDED TO TO GO WITH LIKELY
SHWRS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR SATURDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Water temps along SE TX in low 80s, prime time for tropical development to start in the NW gulf. Need a front to sag offshore and get a feature to root to the surface and hang around for a few days
That would be nice send it this way and let it go thru Texas. Going to be difficult though with that big ridge of High Pressure out West of me.
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1013. pcola57
It's 80 degrees,humid @ 76% here at 8:10 am local..uggghhh
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Beryl finally fell apart:


Might not make TD by NC after all:
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9732
Earlier a comment was made that the current location of the Bermuda High would be a main factor for U.S. landfalling storms this season. What conditions would allow the location of this High to be 'fixed' for the season. I mean, it's not like it is set in stone, right? So is 2004 an analogous year?
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1010. Brock31
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Beryl is looking good this morning.



Pressure is 29.59 and dropping. Winds at the beach gusting to 37 earlier and now sustained at around 30 mph.

We still have a few bands to come through closer to the center of circulation.
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Water temps along SE TX in low 80s, prime time for tropical development to start in the NW gulf. Need a front to sag offshore and get a feature to root to the surface and hang around for a few days
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting RitaEvac:
Muggy, steamy, dead calm here with temps around 80 in SE TX near the coast
75 here for a low, 98 percent humidity, little to no rain in our future.
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Quoting aspectre:
949 Bern99: Well, here's a quote from the Ars Technica article about it: "the radioactivity caused by the cesium was about 30 times below that caused naturally by radioactive potassium. So, the tuna don't present a health threat to anyone involved."
The radiation level is ~4 Becquerels per kilogram (Bq/kg), from one article I read. The average banana has 15 Bq of radioactive potassium...


And a kilogram of bananas doses at ~130Bq... which doesn't have much to do with anything*.
The levels cited are found in bluefin caught on the American side of the Pacific, after the bluefin have diluted their contamination load both through normal growth and normal metabolic elimination while crossing the ocean. It'd be higher in those on the Asian side.

Bluefin flesh is so highly valued that trade is worldwide: ie the industry flies the fish from the first-market port to wherever the price is the highest.
And there is no point-of-origin labeling required or voluntarily given out. After the first-market port, wholesale buyers don't care where the bluefin came from -- certainly not enough to attempt any sort of verification even if they were to be told something -- making it highly unlikely that the retailer would know or wanna know. So the sashimi / sushi topping could easily be more radioactive than a consumer would personally think of as safe.

My own view is that anything that can scare off bluefin buyers is a positive for the species' survival, and for the bluefin industry in the long run.

* Even if the banana-scale were as applicable to real-life exposure to radioactive industrial waste as folks like to pretend.


The "banana scale" does apply. If your measuring radiation in Bq, it doesn't matter if the radiation comes from salt substitute, bananas, a spent fuel rod, or tobacco. A Bq is a Bq. Using a banana is just a convenient unit that most people can relate to, which is a good thing since the media gets a tad sensationalistic.

There are other scales which take into account the type and exposure of radiation, but that isn't what was being discussed.
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Muggy, steamy, dead calm here with temps around 80 in SE TX near the coast
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Dew points near 80 in N C FL. WOW!!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Jax82:
Captured one of the last bands of Beryl going through Jax Beach last night, not bad for an Iphone, eh. Taken around 9:30pm.






Very nice!! I'm book marking these pics. Very cool! Thanks for sharing.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Already 3" to 4" of rain this morning on top of 12" to 16" that fell yesterday.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
1002. Jax82
Captured one of the last bands of Beryl going through Jax Beach last night, not bad for an Iphone, eh. Taken around 9:30pm.



Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
This blog is dead.

Looks like the Ohio Valley and the Mid Atlantic could have severe weather.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9732
I think it's safe to say FL is really entrenched into our rainy season.

GFS 16 Day Precip Accum.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be a pattern this hurricane season. Notice the position of the Bermuda High.





Alternating troughs and "ridges in bad places" along the East Coast. All about the timing. In 04 the timing was NOT in our favor as re-curve did not happen until shortly after impact. Hopefully the timing is in our favor this year as I think there will be a few nail biters.
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gfs~is`good`nailed`berly
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Quoting aspectre:
The levels cited are found in bluefin caught on the American side of the Pacific, after the bluefin have diluted their contamination load both through normal growth and normal metabolic elimination while crossing the ocean. It'd be higher in those on the Asian side.


This 'sort of' makes it sound that those on the Asian side have retained higher contamination than those on the North American side. They haven't ... unless they have received more radiation exposure than those that showed up across the Pacific have. Otherwise the 'dilution rate' is comparable for both sides.
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972 MissNadia: It raining hard with a wind from the SE at 20 30 here on the Cape Fear Coast. Pressure is 29.70 and falling. Should be over with in a few hours.

Near as can tell from combing the last ATCF with the last NHCAdvisory, Beryl's center will be passing just a bit north of CapeFear in about 3hours. ie You'll be on the strong side relatively near the center.
Max.Sus.Winds have been picking up and minimum pressures have been dropping between the last two ATCF reports, so my best guess is that you may be facing a 35knot(40mph)65kmh TropicalStorm with higher wind gusts.

The latest ATCF is already due, so may have a LOT better info in a few minutes to half hour.
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Quoting Brock31:
Kinda wet here in Wilmington this morning.

Hoping for a wind shift this afternoon.


Beryl is looking good this morning.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Kinda wet here in Wilmington this morning.

Hoping for a wind shift this afternoon.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
This pattern shows that the U.S time is up.No more avoiding this time..Damn..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Interesting enough the Euro around that time is showing a trof split....Mmmmm.


Yeah notice the little notch at the tail end of a frontal trough off SC & GA at the 240hr timeframe on the Euro.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting K8eCane:
excellent sleeping weather here in wilmington nc



or should i say excellent curl up with my favorite james patterson weather
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excellent sleeping weather here in wilmington nc
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This could be a pattern this hurricane season. Notice the position of the Bermuda High.


This pattern shows that the U.S time is up.No more avoiding this time..Damn..
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
AT 360HRS lol
Interesting enough the Euro around that time is showing a trof split....Mmmmm.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
When is this suppose to happen?
AT 360HRS lol
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Looking like another very stormy day across C FL. Could be easily 2" to 3" today across our area as you can already see what appears to be a nice convective band beginning to build from the Gulf across to Daytona Beach and this is verified by lots tall building CU around here this morning which is unusual as we normall don't see this until late morning early afternoon here.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Looks like Beryl is just off shore Myrtle Beach and moving NE.
Buoy off Cape Fear is reporting wind from the South at 36+ 45 MPH pressure of 29.61 and falling. Rain is letting up some here in Wilmington.
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This could be a pattern this hurricane season. Notice the position of the Bermuda High.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
To nigel20, post # 954, I am good. Thanks. Boy this morning the remains of Beryl look pretty well structured on the S./N. Carolina coast. Seems to be moving more NE than ENE. Maybe the front is pulling it a bit more northerly.
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Quoting SFLWeatherman:
The GFS
When is this suppose to happen?
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The GFS
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Storms are already building. These storms also were producing a nice light show this morning.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
New models keep the worst weather N of the SE.
Oh, well.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9732

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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