Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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comes out on the SE side..stronger..

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not according to the models. Wind shear should stay unfavorable across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean through at least next week.

no he is right shear is expected to die down by then
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Actually, we were just talking about it. Read back some.


DOH! Sorry...didn't read up before posting that. Will do...thanks for the FYI!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not according to the models. Wind shear should stay unfavorable across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean through at least next week.


???
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SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EXTREME WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
EASTERN NEW YORK
VERMONT

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES SOUTH OF GLENS FALLS
NEW YORK TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF BURLINGTON VERMONT. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 312...

DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN ENHANCED
CU/TCU FIELD WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS...AND CONTINUED HEATING OCCURS
AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EAST INTO VT WILL ALSO
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTING THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES THIS
AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...WEISS
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Nogaps



Tampa Express.

Nom Nom Nom. yummy words
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Thank you, TropicalAnalystwx13.

Have a good day.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link doesn't work...

No it doesnt. I want to eat his words too. Please send the link
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Going to be a lot of wind/hail damage reports given the parameters up there. Not quite sold on the tornado threat though, as this event looks mainly linear in nature. Maybe a few brief spin-ups.



Well it looks like the SPC begs to differ... A tornado watch has been issued.

Cape values are upwards of 4000 in extreme northern New York and wind shear of 45kts+ is quite widespread, extending in extreme southern Quebec where I live... Could be interesting. :)
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12z Nogaps

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Quoting ncstorm:


You bout to eat your words..



cant deny that development..

Link doesn't work...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting Hurricanes305:


The tropical wave could give this system the energy to start developing by this weekend. Note: wind shear should be much lower by then.

Not according to the models. Wind shear should stay unfavorable across the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean through at least next week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Show me what you're looking at, because I'm looking at the NOGAPS right now and see nothing besides a very weak low pressure area.


You bout to eat your words..



cant deny that development..
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deleted
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
@mermaidlaw send as much as you can!


It's coming Teddy. As this Bow Echo feature crosses N C FL then the rest of this line will be pulled south probably right into Tampa over the next 2 to 3 hours.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
The area of convection south of western Cuba looks rather interesting...anyone think the NHC will slap a circle on that anytime soon?

Actually, we were just talking about it. Read back some.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
The area of convection south of western Cuba looks rather interesting...anyone think the NHC will slap a circle on that anytime soon?
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Thanks but what does it mean when the NAO takes a dive?

The best way to memorize it:

Negative NAO - weak subtropical and icelandic low = more troughs and therefore less landfalls

Positive NAO - strong subtropical and icelandic low = less troughs and therefore more landfalls.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beryl has delivered up to a foot and a half of rain to some places in Florida and Georgia...widespread 5" totals.

Any drought in the area is probably pretty much wiped out.


wow!!!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
There is alot of wind, and thunder and lightening with this band!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

'IF it persists".


The tropical wave could give this system the energy to start developing by this weekend. Note: wind shear should be much lower by then.
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Quoting MahFL:


That's not what I recall, they said FL and it might go inland some then slowly turn NE, which is what Beryl is doing.


The NHC was right on the money. They never said north Georgia and we can prove that using technology.

Graphics archive.
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@mermaidlaw send as much as you can!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Tornado Watch
Statement as of 12:26 PM EDT on May 29, 2012



The National Weather Service has issued Tornado Watch 313 in
effect until 9 PM EDT this evening for the following areas

In Massachusetts this watch includes 1 County

In western Massachusetts

Berkshire

In New York this watch includes 13 counties

In east central New York

Albany Columbia Fulton
Greene Hamilton Herkimer
Montgomery Rensselaer Saratoga
Schenectady Schoharie Warren
Washington

In Vermont this watch includes 2 counties

In southern Vermont

Bennington Windham

This includes the cities of... Albany... Amsterdam... Athens...
Bellows Falls... Bennington... Brattleboro... Cairo... Cambridge...
Catskill... Cobleskill... Coxsackie... Dolgeville... Fort Edward...
Frankfort... Glens Falls... Gloversville... Granville... Greenwich...
Herkimer... Hudson... Hudson Falls... Ilion... Jefferson Heights...
Johnstown... Little Falls... Middleburgh... Mohawk... North Adams...
Pittsfield... Rotterdam... Saratoga Springs... Schenectady...
Speculator... Troy... Wellsville... West Brattleboro...
West Glens Falls and Whitehall.
Member Since: May 17, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 904
HEAVY rain on Utila with West winds....
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Show me what you're looking at, because I'm looking at the NOGAPS right now and see nothing besides a very weak low pressure area.

refer to #132
and
this is the WRF (12Z)




this is the MM5(12Z)



hmm just found out this run is weaker that to last run but still shows it
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Quoting gator23:


At about hour 90 there is a minor hint. I am not saying I agre with him but it bears watching

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=20 12052900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Ani mation


Ok, that map shows more clearly that there is one closed isobar, but in my opinion it's just too close in time to develop with no other models showing it.
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Quoting mermaidlaw:
Ted, I am trying to send you some of this rain! We are finally getting it here in Weeki Wachee.


That line is about 30 minutes to my west and it looks intense. I have a feeling this feeder band from beryl will be here tomorrow as well.





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I found the double rainbow last night


what is it supposed to mean? i forgot
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A -NAO means a more southerly displaced Jet with stronger eastern US troughs like models are forecasting for this weekend. Plus lesser trade winds in the MDR region which eventually means warmer waters there.

That's the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in a nutshell. I think this is a west-based -NAO. The AO(Arctic Oscillation) is also trending negative as I speak.
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Idk... this one looks like it means business. Also, some more discrete cells are forming south of the main line indicating the atmosphere is still very ripe for convection
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Beryl has delivered up to a foot and a half of rain to some places in Florida and Georgia...widespread 5" totals.

Any drought in the area is probably pretty much wiped out.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


That's at least the third time you've posted that today, and I'm sorry, but I just don't see where you think you see suggestions of a tropical cyclone. It shows a very weak surface trough and some rainfall. Not exactly hinting at development.


At about hour 90 there is a minor hint. I am not saying I agre with him but it bears watching

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.cgi?time=20 12052900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Can I get a Link to it?


Link
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just popped in for a minute but Rob @ Crown Weather also said the area should be watched closer to the weekend.


Can I get a Link to it?
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Ted, I am trying to send you some of this rain! We are finally getting it here in Weeki Wachee.
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Good Mourning, some of the models are suggesting some heavy rain for South Florida from the system in the Caribbean.
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143. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

some models are forecasting it even the NOGAP


im with u cayman looks like its trying to form somethig down there now a nice red blob
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just popped in for a minute but Rob @ Crown Weather also said the area should be watched closer to the weekend.

'IF it persists".
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Never get any fun in the Tampabay area. lol
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes Thurs/Fri timefame
Just popped in for a minute but Rob @ Crown Weather also said the area should be watched closer to the weekend.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Check out the Tampa Shield.
This is the 2nd line that deteriorated to miss Tampa, Now we wait for the 3rd one:


That will almost certainly deteriorate before it reaches Tampa.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24033
Quoting SteveDa1:
Interesting...


Going to be a lot of wind/hail damage reports given the parameters up there. Not quite sold on the tornado threat though, as this event looks mainly linear in nature. Maybe a few brief spin-ups.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072

Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Thank you, Nigel20.
No problem!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Not according to the NGP


That's at least the third time you've posted that today, and I'm sorry, but I just don't see where you think you see suggestions of a tropical cyclone. It shows a very weak surface trough and some rainfall. Not exactly hinting at development.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

some models are forecasting it even the NOGAP

Show me what you're looking at, because I'm looking at the NOGAPS right now and see nothing besides a very weak low pressure area.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32072
Interesting...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We just went through this with Beryl. It's not going to "go" at all because conditions are too unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean. None of the models, not even the CMC and NGP, show any sort of development, and when those two aren't...you know nothing is going to form. The pattern won't be like Alberto/Beryl by the time this gets up near Florida, it'll just be a blob of showers that moves northward.

some models are forecasting it even the NOGAP
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We just went through this with Beryl. It's not going to "go" at all because conditions are too unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean. None of the models, not even the CMC and NGP, show any sort of development, and when those two aren't...you know nothing is going to form. The pattern won't be like Alberto/Beryl by the time this gets up near Florida, it'll just be a blob of showers that moves northward.


Not according to the NGP
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Thank you, Nigel20.
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:



What does a lowering NAO mean?

The NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is the dominant mode of winter climate variability in the North Atlantic region ranging from central North America to Europe and much into Northern Asia. The NAO is a large scale seesaw in atmospheric mass between the subtropical high and the polar low. The corresponding index varies from year to year, but also exhibits a tendency to remain in one phase for intervals lasting several years.

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8035

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.