Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting yonzabam:
When the season starts on June 1st, it will be 2412 days since a major hurricane hit the US (Wilma Oct 2005).

There's a good article out today on the frequency of landfalling major hurricanes in the US since 1900, with an interesting chart, showing how 'overdue' one is.

Some interesting discussion about the environmental factors which have protected the US and whether these might be due to chance or climate change.

Link


If one uses the SSS for Impact determination, well it was designed for wind loading on structures and isnt at'all a good indicator of Surge, Size etc.

Ask anyone who experienced Ike in 08 if it wasnt a major.

The answer is obvious.

Hurricane Ike NOAA Base Relief Map

..click on thumbnails for ZOOMed images

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20 Inches has fallen South-West of Ocala,Florida

Link
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Warner Robins
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI

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When the season starts on June 1st, it will be 2412 days since a major hurricane hit the US (Wilma Oct 2005).

There's a good article out today on the frequency of landfalling major hurricanes in the US since 1900, with an interesting chart, showing how 'overdue' one is.

Some interesting discussion about the environmental factors which have protected the US and whether these might be due to chance or climate change.

Link
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:

Is it because the terrain is flat why Beryl has maintained a fairly organized circulation?
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8427
Quoting Grothar:


Two pots of gold.

At each end, surely.
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222. Gah, you're right. My mistake, but still I believe that shear will help knock down those tropical waves until they reach closer to the Caribbean.
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Quoting Patrap:


We're upping the stock with a assorted mix as Jr. Graduate's tomorrow and we be having the after party here.

Sounds good!
Congrats to Junior.
Oh, and tell him we are still waiting on his next Guitar-playing performance.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The general setup is that the season will be less active than 2011 and 2010, but more active than 2009 with more storms developing closer to the coast. As previously mentioned SST's are below average in the Eastern Atlantic, but there will be a higher amount of moisture over Africa, favoring stronger tropical waves thanks to the cool GoG. However, with an El Nino present, the shear and cool SST's should knock down those waves, forcing them more westward, and developing much closer to land with much less time to recurve. That is the biggest danger I can foresee this season, those pesky and often violent type hurricanes that develop just SE of the islands and move into the Caribbean.


There are patches of below average SSTs, but the signal as a whole from the east Atlantic is above average...



Furthermore, it has been warming, here are the anomalies from 4 weeks ago




NAO forecasts call for negative NAO...NAO at Allan Huffman's, NAO at Maue's, MRF NAO at the CPC, and GFS Ensemble NAO at the CPC
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I found the double rainbow last night


what is it supposed to mean? i forgot


Two pots of gold.
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Quoting pottery:

Welcome to the Club...
90F (down from 91)
Heat Index 103......

Got any Fresca?


We're upping the stock with a assorted mix as Jr. Graduate's tomorrow and we be having the after party here.
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12z CMC is spinning up the caribbean disturbance.





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Quoting TomTaylor:
Waters over the tropical Atlantic aren't as warm as they have been in the past few years, but they are still above average across the MDR, Caribbean, and especially in the Gulf. North of 20N SSTs are below average, which does hurt the basin as a whole for total activity, but may help focus activity in the tropical regions. Waters in the South Atlantic are below average and waters in the west Indian ocean are warmer than they are over the east Indian ocean. This would favor enhanced precipitation over Africa and model forecasts do expect above average precipitation over the region which favors stronger tropical waves off Africa. More rain usually favors less dry air and dust blowing off Africa, however, the stronger pressure gradient can create stronger winds (and waves) which would push more dust and dry air off the continent. ITCZ over the mid Atlantic hasn't been too healthy, especially the southern side. However, this is expected with the way the SST anomalies are set up (warm anomalies north of the equator, cold anomalies south of the equator), and it could help to focus the ITCZ further north. The far east Atlantic SSTs have been below average in much of the preseason but it has recently warmed up dramatically and are now above average. Furthermore, NAO forecasts are calling for a solid run of the negative phase of the NAO for the next week or two which would mean more warming under lighter trade winds.

But the big thing everyone is looking at is the ENSO...already got around neutral conditions and most models are calling for El Nino to take over around the peak of our season. This should keep us around an average season. However, given all the other factors, and that we've already had two named storms, I think we will have a slightly above average season. I'm saying 12-14 named storms.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The general setup is that the season will be less active than 2011 and 2010, but more active than 2009 with more storms developing closer to the coast. As previously mentioned SST's are below average in the Eastern Atlantic, but there will be a higher amount of moisture over Africa, favoring stronger tropical waves thanks to the cool GoG. However, with an El Nino present, the shear and cool SST's should knock down those waves, forcing them more westward, and developing much closer to land with much less time to recurve. That is the biggest danger I can foresee this season, those pesky and often violent type hurricanes that develop just SE of the islands and move into the Caribbean.

Agreed!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8427
Quoting pottery:

Humid and sunny and still......
If I was a fungus I would be enjoying this.

Lol!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8427
The general setup is that the season will be less active than 2011 and 2010, but more active than 2009 with more storms developing closer to the coast. As previously mentioned SST's are below average in the Eastern Atlantic, but there will be a higher amount of moisture over Africa, favoring stronger tropical waves thanks to the cool GoG. However, with an El Nino present, the shear and cool SST's should knock down those waves, forcing them more westward, and developing much closer to land with much less time to recurve. That is the biggest danger I can foresee this season, those pesky and often violent type hurricanes that develop just SE of the islands and move into the Caribbean. Storms that popup suddenly in the GOMEX is also a huge issue this year, vertical instability is very high in the Gulf and we could be looking at Claudette and Humberto style spinups this year too.
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Quoting Patrap:
Phew, itsa Hotsui' here.

Noon Temperature

93.4 °F

Feels Like 99 °F

Welcome to the Club...
90F (down from 91)
Heat Index 103......

Got any Fresca?
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Quoting allancalderini:
Do someone know if Beryl have killed people I don`t really trust Wikipedia?


From Dr. Jeff Masters above:

One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

2 in Cuba, with 2 missing in South Carolina and Florida.
Thanks.
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Phew, itsa Hotsui' here.

Noon Temperature

93.4 F

Feels Like 99 F
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There plenty of moisture in the Caribbean. As well as, some tropical waves between the Lesser Antilles and Africa that will move in the NW Caribbean to support persistent thunderstorms.
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Alberto and Beryl will certainly act as pretty significant season total boosters as I've said earlier. Even if we only get 10 named storms in the season like in 2006, we'd still end up with a average-slightly above average season with 12 named.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Do someone know if Beryl have killed people I don`t really trust Wikipedia?

2 in Cuba, with 1 missing in South Carolina and 1 missing in Florida.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
Quoting nigel20:

Hey pottery...what's up?


Humid and sunny and still......
If I was a fungus I would be enjoying this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Waters over the tropical Atlantic aren't as warm as they have been in the past few years, but they are still above average across the MDR, Caribbean, and especially in the Gulf. North of 20N SSTs are below average, which does hurt the basin as a whole for total activity, but may help focus activity in the tropical regions. Waters in the South Atlantic are below average and waters in the west Indian ocean are warmer than they are over the east Indian ocean. This would favor enhanced precipitation over Africa and model forecasts do expect above average precipitation over the region which favors stronger tropical waves off Africa. More rain usually favors less dry air and dust blowing off Africa, however, the stronger pressure gradient can create stronger winds (and waves) which would push more dust and dry air off the continent. ITCZ over the mid Atlantic hasn't been too healthy, especially the southern side. However, this is expected with the way the SST anomalies are set up (warm anomalies north of the equator, cold anomalies south of the equator), and it could help to focus the ITCZ further north. The far east Atlantic SSTs have been below average in much of the preseason but it has recently warmed up dramatically and are now above average. Furthermore, NAO forecasts are calling for a solid run of the negative phase of the NAO for the next week or two which would mean more warming under lighter trade winds.

But the big thing everyone is looking at is the ENSO...already got around neutral conditions and most models are calling for El Nino to take over around the peak of our season. This should keep us around an average season. However, given all the other factors, and that we've already had two named storms, I think we will have a slightly above average season. I'm saying 12-14 named storms.
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Quoting canehater1:
If I am reading Dr. Gray's analysis correctly
we are moving from La Nina towards El Nino and
SST's are lower than 2010, but still higher
than average. Thus we should expect a near
average to below average Hurricane season.

Is that it in a nutshell ?
Yeah that's his reasoning, which makes sense, but I disagree with the CSU team's forecast.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


If the system can spin up a low pressure I expect more models to latch on to it. Remember Beryl had no decent model support early on before it was 94L.
gfsdid
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Do someone know if Beryl have killed people I don`t really trust Wikipedia?
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Quoting ncstorm:
comes out on the SE side..stronger..


and becoming extratropical. (look at the 500mb height change just to its west... that sure looks like the tail end of the front expected to push through at that time).

The front is likely helping the nascent low amplify a bit, due to baroclinic forcing and energy.
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Quoting allancalderini:
Not always depend on the models as you know the tropics are unexpected.

Agreed!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8427
Quoting pottery:
Heavy rains coming in fast to Barbados, Tobago, Trinidad.
Hearing thunder rumbling just S/W of me here in Trinidad.
It's been showery since last night, and looks to be getting heavy in a short...

Hey pottery...what's up?

Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8427
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, as I stated, a weak low pressure area which really shouldn't even there considering it shows high wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. It's an unreliable model and none of the other show it...are you really expecting anything?
Not always depend on the models as you know the tropics are unexpected.
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Welcome to the "May"an Tropical Palzooa 2012
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
Well i just got home and while i was out we had a total washout here in Wilmington. Now the sun is shining and its BAKING outside
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Good news is, that I believe Beryl's rains will finally raise the dew points up enough and wipe out the dry air that has been plaguing Florida and should finally start those ripe and strong Florida daytime thunderstorms (my favorite part of summer).


That would be great Teddy - I miss those afternoon rains that used to do such a good job for the landscape... our barrier island has been turning into a desert landscape the past several years...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, as I stated, a weak low pressure area which really shouldn't even there considering it shows high wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. It's an unreliable model and none of the other show it...are you really expecting anything?


If the system can spin up a low pressure I expect more models to latch on to it. Remember Beryl had no decent model support early on before it was 94L.
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Think we do need to watch the area to the south, I mean models were hinting at something for close to a week now. If the waters are warm and we know they are, and we have that persistent thunderstorm activity we can get a low trying to form.
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Quoting pvbeachbum:


Drought not nearly wiped out yet here in Ponte Vedra Beach (SE of Jax) - we have only gotten about 1 inch so far - lots of dry wind bands yesterday as all the rain fizzled before it reached us - but is is lightly raining today and we may be in the path of the larger band coming from central Florida today, so still hoping for some more rain.


Good news is, that I believe Beryl's rains will finally raise the dew points up enough and wipe out the dry air that has been plaguing Florida and should finally start those ripe and strong Florida daytime thunderstorms (my favorite part of summer).
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I believe this is the new ECMWF:
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Quoting pvbeachbum:


Drought not nearly wiped out yet here in Ponte Vedra Beach (SE of Jax) - we have only gotten about 1 inch so far - lots of dry wind bands yesterday as all the rain fizzled before it reached us - but is is lightly raining today and we may be in the path of the larger band coming from central Florida today, so still hoping for some more rain.
Hopefully you'll get some well needed rain!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 12 Comments: 8427
Heavy rains coming in fast to Barbados, Tobago, Trinidad.
Hearing thunder rumbling just S/W of me here in Trinidad.
It's been showery since last night, and looks to be getting heavy in a short...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, as I stated, a weak low pressure area which really shouldn't even there considering it shows high wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. It's an unreliable model and none of the other show it...are you really expecting anything?


Hey, I just watch the models..LOL..when they start showing consistency which the nogaps has been doing, then I pay attention..and I have to say for the thousandth time, Dr. Masters has stated the Nogaps is a reliable model several times..ALL models have been wrong many times..with the way the season is going..yeah, I expect it:)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, as I stated, a weak low pressure area which really shouldn't even there considering it shows high wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. It's an unreliable model and none of the other show it...are you really expecting anything?


We wont be supressing any opinions here. I think these people are excited that they may have another tropical system to watch. And to be honest, there is some model support and a blob. So what the harm in discussing possible development?
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It has just started raining in Bluffton/Hilton Head, SC.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Beryl has delivered up to a foot and a half of rain to some places in Florida and Georgia...widespread 5" totals.

Any drought in the area is probably pretty much wiped out.



Drought not nearly wiped out yet here in Ponte Vedra Beach (SE of Jax) - we have only gotten about 1 inch so far - lots of dry wind bands yesterday as all the rain fizzled before it reached us - but is is lightly raining today and we may be in the path of the larger band coming from central Florida today, so still hoping for some more rain.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link doesn't work...


see if this works

Link
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z Nogaps


Yes, as I stated, a weak low pressure area which really shouldn't even there considering it shows high wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico at the time. It's an unreliable model and none of the other show it...are you really expecting anything?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

'IF it persists".


All due respect but, it is persisting and has been for a couple days now. I don't see anything changing much by the weekend so, one can gather that it will continue on as is.
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comes out on the SE side..stronger..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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