Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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This would suggest some sort a circulation developing in the GOH.
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So, what does everyone think the system down in the Carib. Is gonna do?
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Quoting Jedkins01:



It looks like this one really will, that line is strong and is progressing southeast much faster than the last so I don't think it will stall to the north of Tampa Bay like the last one, granted we probably won't get 30 to 4 inches like our neighbors to the north, but if it holds a couple inches is certainly possible.


I don't know, those thunderstorms cells are starting to look weaker frame by frame. I don't think it's going to happen.
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also I do not trust the GFS for two reasons #1 it has a long history of being trigger happy a week or 2 before hand and kills it in the middle but when it is just couple of days away GFS brings it back
#2 GFS have just gotten upgraded and I am not too sure on how well the new GFS is taking it
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The Tampa shield is starting up:
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

very true plus shear should start to lower by 48 hours
(notice the Dark blue and purples(lower shear) are comimng back while in 24 houes you would see the light blues and even green-blue(high shear)

Here we go again...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Some of the same statements were made about the former Caribbean disturbance which was later tagged 94L with a near 0% chance for development which went on to become Beryl. This disturbance though lacking a circulation center is more organized convectively than 94L ever was in that area, if it can maintain itself for another 2-3 days it is not impossible we could see another TS the first week of June, just my take.
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Quoting obxlocal:
How is Beryl looking?


It still has it's circulation intact but hanging on to tropical depression status. It starts to head off northeast into the Atlantic. It could restrengthen as it cross over the gulf stream to tropical storm status before affecting the Carolinas by Wednesday night.
IT has caused major flooding including isolated reports of 20 inches of rain.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nasty squall line coming in. Let's see if it actually can hold together. Looks like I'm going to get walloped.
This one won't fall apart and it has plenty of momentum to make it through all of the immediate bay area.... hopefully the southern progression will slow slightly to allow for higher rainfall totals.
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271. txjac
Quoting RitaEvac:
Waiting in TX for ignition of storms to fire on radar this afternoon, should be closer to Houston area this evening


Let's hope so woman! Bring it on
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


System in the Caribbean has more energy than when Beryl was an invest in that area.

very true plus shear should start to lower by 48 hours
(notice the Dark blue and purples(lower shear) are comimng back while in 24 houes you would see the light blues and even green-blue(high shear)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Don't worry, she'll hold together!

Baby please hear me hold together.





It looks like this one really will, that line is strong and is progressing southeast much faster than the last so I don't think it will stall to the north of Tampa Bay like the last one, granted we probably won't get 30 to 4 inches like our neighbors to the north, but if it holds a couple inches is certainly possible.
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Quoting Grothar:
Wile the system in the Caribbean looks good, and has for a number of days, it is not likely to develop anytime soon. There is very little low level convergence. Wind shear is very high in the area and is expected to stay that way until the end of the week. If the wind shear begins to relax and additional moisture can fill in the Western Caribbean in about 5 or six days, we could find development. It is persisting though, therefore, it could have sufficient energy to maintain itself for a few more days.



Current low level convergence:



Current upper leverl divergence:



Current wind shear:







How are you doing Grothar...is it because of the low terrain why Beryl didn't die off over land?
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Don't worry, she'll hold together!

Baby please hear me hold together.


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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
GFS does kida have it mainly as an open trough and shower activity moves it off to S Fl by day 3-day 4 but it still has it

I can agree with that just an ordinary low pressure system riding along the southwest flow ahead of a shortwave trough.
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Quoting gator23:


As noted there is some model support
WRF
NOGAPS
CMC

Even if you discount the CMC the WRF is a very good model
It is known to have convective feedback issues, causing it to spin up most disturbances or over intensify existing storms.

Regardless, these models you guys are citing show one to two closed isobars...thats really not impressive considering most of those models are notoriously trigger happy.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting obxlocal:
How is Beryl looking?

Healthy, considering.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Waiting in TX for ignition of storms to fire on radar this afternoon, should be closer to Houston area this evening
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How is Beryl looking?
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GFS does kida have it mainly as an open trough and shower activity moves it off to S Fl by day 3-day 4 but it still has it

Quoting CybrTeddy:


NOGAPS is the least reliable global model.

Until the ECMWF and GFS spin it up, I won't pay much attention to it.
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Quoting Grothar:
Wile the system in the Caribbean looks good, and has for a number of days, it is not likely to develop anytime soon. There is very little low level convergence. Wind shear is very high in the area and is expected to stay that way until the end of the week. If the wind shear begins to relax and additional moisture can fill in the Western Caribbean in about 5 or six days, we could find development. It is persisting though, therefore, it could have sufficient energy to maintain itself for a few more days.



Current low level convergence:



Current upper leverl divergence:



Current wind shear:









System in the Caribbean has more energy than when Beryl was an invest in that area.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I see no model support for any sort of development in the Caribbean, increased moisture sure and that's what we're getting. But once again, I will repeat that the area of convection being seen in the western Caribbean is nothing but an upper level trough from N. Florida to the Yucatan, and is generating a large area of diffluence alof and a surface trough that is causing these thunderstorms. There is nothing on the surface being shown and there is a very low chance of development.. however if these thunderstorms hold together into next week it is something we should defiantly watch for development but as of right now there is no model support, shear is way to high for fragile monsoonal development.
exactly...Just upper divergence at work, shear is too high, no low level vorticity signature, and no support from reliable models for now.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting CybrTeddy:


NOGAPS is the least reliable global model.

Until the ECMWF and GFS spin it up, I won't pay much attention to it.

CMC is the least reliable but to your point yes the NOGAPS is not that reliable however you said there is NO model support which is factually incorrect.
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Tornado watch up for new york and vermont...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TORNADO WATCH #313 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT ULSTER...DUCTHESS AND LITCHFIELD. IN COORDINATION WITH
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MUCH OF THE FORECAST WAS UPGRADED TO
MODERATE RISK.

MORNING SOUNDING IS LOCKED AND LOADED FOR HI END SLIGHT RISK/MOD
SEVERE EVENT....CAPES 3000 J/KG, SWEAT 301, 0-3KM STM REL HEL 141
M2/S2. EHI 1-2 SOUTH 2-4 NORTH..LI DROP TO -11.

SHEAR RELATIVELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...AND HT FALLS ASSOC WITH
APPROACH HING JET BEGINNING TO IMPACT W PTNS OF RGN...BUT BEST JET
DYNAMICS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BULK OF EVENT IS OVER...SPARING US
FROM THE WORST CASE SCENARIO.

MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND WITH PWATS
OF 1.6 INCHES HEAVY RAIN. FORTUNATELY THEY WILL BE MOVING 30+
KNOTS.
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I went to research and find what Dr. Masters considers a reliable model back in 2011..I found this:

"The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis–the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS"

but I also found him stating the NHC dosent consider the Nogaps a reliable model anymore but he never said if he agrees or not..

I believe all the models have failed many times in their predictions as to why they should only be used as guidance only
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
Wile the system in the Caribbean looks good, and has for a number of days, it is not likely to develop anytime soon. There is very little low level convergence. Wind shear is very high in the area and is expected to stay that way until the end of the week. If the wind shear begins to relax and additional moisture can fill in the Western Caribbean in about 5 or six days, we could find development. It is persisting though, therefore, it could have sufficient energy to maintain itself for a few more days.



Current low level convergence:



Current upper leverl divergence:



Current wind shear:






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:


As noted there is much model support
WRF
NOGAPS
CMC

Even if you discount the CMC the WRF is a very good model


NOGAPS is the least reliable global model.

Until the ECMWF and GFS spin it up, I won't pay much attention to it.
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Quoting gator23:


As noted there is much model supports
WRF
NOGAPS
CMC

Even if you discount the CMC the WRF is a very good model

true
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
I see no model support for any sort of development in the Caribbean, increased moisture sure and that's what we're getting. But once again, I will repeat that the area of convection being seen in the western Caribbean is nothing but an upper level trough from N. Florida to the Yucatan, and is generating a large area of diffluence alof and a surface trough that is causing these thunderstorms. There is nothing on the surface being shown and there is a very low chance of development.. however if these thunderstorms hold together into next week it is something we should defiantly watch for development but as of right now there is no model support, shear is way to high for fragile monsoonal development.


As noted there is some model support
WRF
NOGAPS
CMC

Even if you discount the CMC the WRF is a very good model
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Quoting sluggosteve:


Shows you the variability with these systems....just 100 miles to the south in southern Osceola county we have only received about an inch of rain from Beryl and are at 3.81 for the month.


You should be able to get some rain with that rain and coming in.
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Quoting Gatorstorm:



The missing Daytona Beach swimmer referenced above drowned; found in Ormond Beach this morning.


19 year old was carried 10 miles by wave action and rip currents
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Nasty squall line coming in. Let's see if it actually can hold together. Looks like I'm going to get walloped.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
not from the reliable models.


Since when are the WRF(HWRF) or NOGAPS not reliable models?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


From Dr. Jeff Masters above:

One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.




The missing Daytona Beach swimmer referenced above drowned; found in Ormond Beach this morning.
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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Doesn't look like Tampa is going to be able to dodge that line like the several prior to it. 


Our friend Jedkins is going to get nailed over the next 2 hours. That is one dangerous line heading toward Clearwater & north Tampa.
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I see no model support for any sort of development in the Caribbean, increased moisture sure and that's what we're getting. But once again, I will repeat that the area of convection being seen in the western Caribbean is nothing but an upper level trough from N. Florida to the Yucatan, and is generating a large area of diffluence alof and a surface trough that is causing these thunderstorms. There is nothing on the surface being shown and there is a very low chance of development.. however if these thunderstorms hold together into next week it is something we should defiantly watch for development but as of right now there is no model support, shear is way to high for fragile monsoonal development.
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Tampa, your storms cometh, and that right soon.

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Quoting allancalderini:
At least is something.

true
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Look what the CMC wants to move into the FL west coast this weekend. Lots of heavy rains again for FL. I just heard on TWC that some areas SW of Ocala have seen nearly half of their yearly rainfall average. Geesh!!
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


I'm not surprised as I am hearing many reports of 12" plus in Citrus County. There are also very heavy storms that are training and moving in my direction. I could easly get 2" to 3" out of this. Some parts of FL have literally went from drought to floods in literally 48 hours.

Doesn't look like Tampa is going to be able to dodge that line like the several prior to it. 
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by the way the W caribbean AOI is dragging some more moisture from the SW caribbean low and monsoon trough shown on sat
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Are we beginning to see a more sharp turn towards the east north east with Beryl or he just going for a jog?

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Right so so far
WRF
MM5
NOGAP
NAM
CMC
GFS to some extent
lot of model support for caribbean system


Hey Wunderkid, I can get some links to those models?
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Quoting TomTaylor:
not from the reliable models.
At least is something.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
20 Inches has fallen South-West of Ocala,Florida

Link


Shows you the variability with these systems....just 100 miles to the south in southern Osceola county we have only received about an inch of rain from Beryl and are at 3.81 for the month.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Right so so far
WRF
MM5
NOGAP
NAM
CMC
GFS to some extent
lot of model support for caribbean system
not from the reliable models.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
20 Inches has fallen South-West of Ocala,Florida

Link


I'm not surprised as I am hearing many reports of 12" plus in Citrus County. There are also very heavy storms that are training and moving in my direction. I could easly get 2" to 3" out of this. Some parts of FL have literally went from drought to floods in literally 48 hours.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
222. Gah, you're right. My mistake, but still I believe that shear will help knock down those tropical waves until they reach closer to the Caribbean.
Yeah, it will be interesting to see what the ENSO does over the summer and how strong of an impact is has on our season. Right now precipitation over the central and much of the eastern pacific (180W-120W) is still much below average though, which implies less convection and subsequent ventilation aloft which gives us the shear across the MDR. Obviously that will change if the SST anomalies dramatically turn around, but for now it shows that the atmosphere is still lagging (and will continue to due so) behind the SST anomalies. So even a full blown El Nino (based off the SST signal) at the peak of our season will most likely not behave as strongly in the atmosphere, at least not immediately.




ESPI is also still negative.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4358
We should market a "Blog to Build a Tropical Storm" app for Wunder bloggers.

I see $'s.
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z CMC is spinning up the caribbean disturbance.






Right so so far
WRF
MM5
NOGAP
NAM
CMC
GFS to some extent
lot of model support for caribbean system
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Quoting yonzabam:
When the season starts on June 1st, it will be 2412 days since a major hurricane hit the US (Wilma Oct 2005).

There's a good article out today on the frequency of landfalling major hurricanes in the US since 1900, with an interesting chart, showing how 'overdue' one is.

Some interesting discussion about the environmental factors which have protected the US and whether these might be due to chance or climate change.

Link


If one uses the SSS for Impact determination, well it was designed for wind loading on structures and isnt at'all a good indicator of Surge, Size etc.

Ask anyone who experienced Ike in 08 if it wasnt a major.

The answer is obvious.

Hurricane Ike NOAA Base Relief Map

..click on thumbnails for ZOOMed images

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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