Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

38 hours.


thats trulyt amazinf
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Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?
A:Yes
B:No
B
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Quoting nigel20:

How are you doing Grothar...is it because of the low terrain why Beryl didn't die off over land?


The winds died off, but many times these systems hold their circulation for a long time. Also, it was able to bring in moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic. Don't forget, Wilma held together quite well crossing the entire state.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Some of the same statements were made about the former Caribbean disturbance which was later tagged 94L with a near 0% chance for development which went on to become Beryl. This disturbance though lacking a circulation center is more organized convectively than 94L ever was in that area, if it can maintain itself for another 2-3 days it is not impossible we could see another TS the first week of June, just my take.
94l actually had a surface low and a vorticity signature throughout the lower atmosphere. This blob currently in the Caribbean is simply that, a blob, there is no vorticity signature. 94l also had model support from the reliable models once it exited the Caribbean, the current blob doesn't have that - it has weak support from our least reliable models.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I hear you, but girl please stop. put you faith on the officals like eg:NHC. because here everything goes wacky sometimes and it could get people killed. I am not sayin to run from this blog but just sit back and learn and don't put faith bad idea

Info from WU is helpful, but should ALWAYS be combined with information from your local authorities (NWS) and the NHC. In the event of conflicting information, go with NWS/NHC info.
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325. Skyepony (Mod)
Concerning model performance on Beryl, NOGAPS actually did okay this storm..here's model error in nm..
Model
Name 0hr 24hr 48hr 72hr 96hr 120hr
NGPS 25.9 49.9 59.2 94.9 113.5 156.0
has done better then
LBAR 3.4 87.1 190.9 426.1 708.3 880.9
NAM 33.0 84.0 173.0 203.2 - -
even out did
GFDL 10.3 44.3 79.0 138.1 163.6 -

GFS, UKMET & Clipper did a little better than NoGAPS
AEMN 24.5 76.4 47.5 75.0 87.9 109.2
EGRR 11.6 22.3 35.6 69.5 - -
DRCL 0 28.2 33.7 27.6 32.2 -

The ones that stood out at having the better 3-5 day cast is
AVNO 30.7 87.5 58.9 90.2 55.7 114.3
CMC 40.3 74.3 92.7 51.9 75.9 157.8

Any model that starts with T deserves a prize so far on Beryl.. All these are consensus track programs where the various other models are used together.
TCCN 0 16.8 28.9 40.5 - -
TCOA 0 19.5 29.3 33.6 - -
TCOE 0 19.2 29.6 42.6 - -
TCON 0 19.2 29.6 42.6 - -
TVCA 4.0 27.5 56.2 76.0 94.6 67.6
TVCC 3.5 42.0 85.9 77.1 60.7 52.4
TVCE 3.5 44.9 90.5 79.2 84.7 67.6
TVCN 3.5 44.9 90.5 79.2 84.7 67.6

All around least error winners are
DRCL 0 28.2 33.7 27.6 32.2 -
GUNA 0 18.6 26.0 43.0 - -

With humans proving once again that we are smarter than computers..in the lead..
OFCL
0 20.5 31.3 22.4 - -

ECMWF isn't included in this comparison..data comes from here.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37336
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No
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Quoting jeffs713:

The Caribbean blob isn't likely to develop, since it seems to have a few things stacked against it right now.

1. high shear (some signs it may lessen)
2. lack of low-level convergence.
3. no vorticity at any level

It has a chance - but it isn't likely.


It has those issues right now. But it will change later on this week. Note 94L had similar issues.
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6z GFS Individual Ensemble Member--I see a weak low pressure passing over south florida..its a wait and see scenario
(the 12z is currently running)



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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Link?


Reported on the television, so I really can't link it lol.
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Quoting sluggosteve:


What is meant by the "shower curtain factor"?

It's an old blog joke.....
Not a real thing.
Sorry to confuse you.
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
not to shabby..any damage reports down there for wind or surge not the flooding rains


Just edited my post to include some of that.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


There was a 87mph gust recorded, as well as several 65mph+ winds, unofficially recorded that is.


Link?
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
I put more faith in this blog and the info I gleen from it than most other sources. WU got me through Katrina when I lived on the MS gulf coast, Rita and Ike. As soon as there is even a hint of a storm, I am on here watching and learning.

I hear you, but girl please stop. put you faith on the officals like eg:NHC. because here everything goes wacky sometimes and it could get people killed. I am not sayin to run from this blog but just sit back and learn and don't put faith bad idea
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Okay it looks like rain cometh my way in Madeira Beach...Oh and I heard mention earlier in the blog about the missing person from FL. They found a body that they believe was the 19 year old swimmer. Very sad these things are so preventable..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


There was a 87mph gust recorded, as well as several 65mph+ winds, unofficially recorded that is.
not to shabby..any damage reports down there for wind or surge not the flooding rains
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Quoting pottery:

Have you considered the 'shower curtain' factor ?


What is meant by the "shower curtain factor"?
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Quoting txjac:


Howdy neighbor, from Houston myself.

You picked a good time to ask that question as long as you have time to watch it play out. There are a few on here that see signs that they think are favorable for slow development ...and there are others that think it will not develop. There is a lot of back and forth with many charts being displayed that are being used to support or deny development.

I'm finding it a good learning opprotunity as I'm a novice at all of this and find myself just listening (watching) and attempting to learn and understand.

I only hope that all making their points keep their responses to each other respectful. Makes it more enjoyable to learn.

The Caribbean blob isn't likely to develop, since it seems to have a few things stacked against it right now.

1. high shear (some signs it may lessen)
2. lack of low-level convergence.
3. no vorticity at any level

It has a chance - but it isn't likely.
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Quoting gator23:

CMC is the least reliable but to your point yes the NOGAPS is not that reliable however you said there is NO model support which is factually incorrect.
Outside of the tropics (ie 500mb height modeling), the cmc is better than the nogaps model. When it comes to the tropics both have issues with track and intensity.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
Quoting NJcat3cane:
did one single location report sustained 50 mph winds at all with beryl?


There was a 87mph gust recorded, as well as several 65mph winds, unofficially recorded that is. There where reports of roof's being severely damaged with a lot of power outages too.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
also look at this low level convergence was bearly there 24 hours ago just only two small spots
24 hours ago


now it has grown some through out the past 24 hours now more is there however not under the convection I say it is growing give it some time and let it grow it will go under the convection soon
now as of 15Z
Yeah but that surface convergence is over land, it has to get out over water.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
I put more faith in this blog and the info I gleen from it than most other sources. WU got me through Katrina when I lived on the MS gulf coast, Rita and Ike. As soon as there is even a hint of a storm, I am on here watching and learning.
That is good thanks to that you will be prepare and inform before a storm arrives.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
also look at this low level convergence was bearly there 24 hours ago just only two small spots
24 hours ago


now it has grown some through out the past 24 hours now more is there however not under the convection I say it is growing give it some time and let it grow it will go under the convection soon
now as of 15Z


Agreed. This AOI wont ramp up too quickly just watch it as it progress.
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did one single location report sustained 50 mph winds at all with beryl?
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
how many hours has beryl been over land for now?

38 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31438
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
So, what does everyone think the system down in the Carib. Is gonna do?
I think it will get caught up with the shortwave trough coming down from the Midwest and if it develops it would likely be after it crosses over FL. into the open Atlantic. Right now I'm giving it about a 30% chance of ever developing. Just my opinion of course.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Ahh, the infamous shower curtain with the duckies.....I wonder how Miami will fare this season?
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Quoting NJcat3cane:
how many hours has beryl been over land for now?


About 40ish.
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I put more faith in this blog and the info I gleen from it than most other sources. WU got me through Katrina when I lived on the MS gulf coast, Rita and Ike. As soon as there is even a hint of a storm, I am on here watching and learning.
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how many hours has beryl been over land for now?
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just a little.. and i mean little ... sprinkle in riverview just east of tampa on I75. come on rain bands hold together to give us some rain...
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also look at this low level convergence was bearly there 24 hours ago just only two small spots
24 hours ago


now it has grown some through out the past 24 hours now more is there however not under the convection I say it is growing give it some time and let it grow it will go under the convection soon
now as of 15Z
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Quoting pottery:

Have you considered the 'shower curtain' factor ?


That's for Miami and they've been getting loads of shields.

Tampa's shields really need to notch it down a bit.
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CMC, 96 hours. No closed isobars.



European, 96 hours. No closed isobars.



GFS, 96 hours. No closed isobars.



NOGAPS, 96 hours. One closed isobar.



This isn't model support. It's just not. If it develops, I'll happily eat my words, but when you have no model support, I just can't see development happening.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm starting to wonder if there's an actual meteorological reason why this keeps on happen vs. a huge coincidence.



I'm pretty sure there isn't one, I've seen way too many lines this come through in this type of atmosphere and they normally always hold together.


I still think this should make it in, it has that feed of convection off to the west as well even if the initial cells can't hold.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7272
Wherever this line sets up will get "training" rains:

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I'm starting to wonder if there's an actual meteorological reason why this keeps on happen vs. a huge coincidence.

Have you considered the 'shower curtain' factor ?
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Seriously, what the heck is wrong with this area, it doesn't make sense...

You must have upset the weather gods. It's the only logical explanation.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
291. txjac
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
So, what does everyone think the system down in the Carib. Is gonna do?


Howdy neighbor, from Houston myself.

You picked a good time to ask that question as long as you have time to watch it play out. There are a few on here that see signs that they think are favorable for slow development ...and there are others that think it will not develop. There is a lot of back and forth with many charts being displayed that are being used to support or deny development.

I'm finding it a good learning opprotunity as I'm a novice at all of this and find myself just listening (watching) and attempting to learn and understand.

I only hope that all making their points keep their responses to each other respectful. Makes it more enjoyable to learn.
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While we here in south Texas could use rain....we don't need the tropical systems...but I guess it is the nature of the beast when you live near the water.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Seriously, what the heck is wrong with this area, it doesn't make sense...


I'm starting to wonder if there's an actual meteorological reason why this keeps on happen vs. a huge coincidence.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't know, those thunderstorms cells are starting to look weaker frame by frame. I don't think it's going to happen.



Seriously, what the heck is wrong with this area, it doesn't make sense...
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7272
Quoting lobdelse81:

It is probably also due to its proximity to the Okefenokee Swamp, which means there may be some moisture for Beryl to still maintain itself, that's just my guess.

Thanks for your input!
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
So, what does everyone think the system down in the Carib. Is gonna do?


Seeing some model support but conditions aren't favorable in the short term. however, things will change later on this week. Monitor it as the week progresses.
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Moderate to heavy showers approaching Barbados

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Quoting stormpetrol:
Some of the same statements were made about the former Caribbean disturbance which was later tagged 94L with a near 0% chance for development which went on to become Beryl. This disturbance though lacking a circulation center is more organized convectively than 94L ever was in that area, if it can maintain itself for another 2-3 days it is not impossible we could see another TS the first week of June, just my take.

true, very true

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Here we go again...

no it just you that all
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Quoting TomTaylor:
It is known to have convective feedback issues, causing it to spin up most disturbances or over intensify existing storms.

Regardless, these models you guys are citing show one to two closed isobars...thats really not impressive considering most of those models are notoriously trigger happy.


Its in its early stages, there is no real vorticity to work with for now. These models can be off and on with systems so just keep an eye out on it.
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
So, what does everyone think the system down in the Carib. Is gonna do?


die
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting nigel20:

How are you doing Grothar...is it because of the low terrain why Beryl didn't die off over land?

It is probably also due to its proximity to the Okefenokee Swamp, which means there may be some moisture for Beryl to still maintain itself, that's just my guess.
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This would suggest some sort a circulation developing in the GOH.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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