Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I gave 12-6-3 for the season.

Given Alberto and Beryl, add 2 to that 12.


breaking 16000
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

continue it to 36-48 hours you will see the shear decreases after the 24 hours

Quoting wunderkidcayman:

A


at first 94L did not have or bearly had a surface low and vort. this caribbean system has the same blobly-ness that 94L first had before she was tagged 94L


Do you think it will develop in the NW Caribbean just like you thought 94L would develop in the NW Caribbean?
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I know my post said " a couple " of remarkable similarities and then listed 5 !.

Just so you know, in the Caribbean "couple" can mean either two or a few LOL.
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Quoting weatherh98:


today is wednesday

In Australia...
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Quoting weatherh98:


today is wednesday

LOL.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
Quoting StormTracker2K:
CMC and more noteably the Nogaps are showing a weak tropical system crossing C FL and strengthening as it exits into the Atlantic.

Pretty strong system here on the Nogaps.

I really don't see that as a tropical system. More like a weak open trough associated with some rain getting pulled into the deep trough coming across the SE.
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Quoting weatherh98:
Heck im ready to poll

How many storms this year

A 2 or less (joke)
b 3-9
c 10-12
d 13-15
e 16 or more

how many landfalls

A1
B2
C3
d4
e 5 or more

how many MDR storms

a 0-2
b 3-4
c 5-6
d 7 or more

how many home growns

a2
b3-4
c5-6
d7-9
e10 or more

when will el nino form? (going random now)

aAugust
boctober
cjune
djuly
eseptember
fnovember


ill say

D D C D A



Quoting jeffs713:

pre-Beryl also had LL convergence, more time to sit and spin, better model support, and didn't have a front diving in to pick it up.


LL convergence is increasing as we speak. This AOI is more organized convection-wise. That front probably will pick up some of its moisture. However, tropical waves just east of the Lesser Antilles will provide more energy. Just give it some time. D-15, D, B-4, C-5, A- late August.
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Quoting Patrap:
..I never poll on a Tuesday as rule.


:P


today is wednesday
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I gave 12-6-3 for the season.

Given Alberto and Beryl, add 2 to that 12.



Ik you said 2 mdr storms and 9 homegrowns

unless you saying there will be 3 in the middle of the atl
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good afternoon

I agree that for now the blob offshore Honduras is unlikely to develop any time soon, if at all. However, there are a couple of remarkable similarities to the feature that became Beryl evident down there today.

1. Shear is high over the NW Caribbean and was similarly high when the surface trough that was the genesis for Beryl established itself in the GOH.

2. Beryl came from a trough in the GOH and there is a trough in that area now.

3. The 850 vort for the trough that spawned Beryl was originally located onshore down in the "neck" of the GOH and that is where we see 850 mb vorticity today, though small.

4. There is lower convergence partially below and partially offshore the 850 mb vort. If both can slip offshore just a little to the NE and shear was to ease off things could change in a hurry.

5. Upper divergence is well established.

Of course, none of this means that history will repeat itself but at the very least the area does bear watching.












Thanks for the detailed reply.

Divergence is lined up well with the thunderstorm activity, but the 850mb vort and LL convergence is out of phase with the convection, as the convection is several hundred miles east of the 850mb vort and ll convergence. The trough is kinda splitting the two features.
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..I never poll on a Tuesday as rule.


:P
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I totaly agree nothing will develop now but 36 hours and onward from not I say something will
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368. JLPR2
Quoting jeffs713:
How to tell bloggers are bored on Dr Master's blog, method # 497 : There are more polls/surveys posted than there is new content.


Ha!
Yep, waiting for Beryl to move over water...
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Since everyone is doing polls:

How many Hurricanes will reach Category 5 strength this year?

A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) 4 or more


c
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


You realize that at best you gave the season 11 storms and you voted for 13-15 : )

I gave 12-6-3 for the season.

Given Alberto and Beryl, add 2 to that 12.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
CMC and more noteably the Nogaps are showing a weak tropical system crossing C FL and strengthening as it exits into the Atlantic.

Pretty strong system here on the Nogaps.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Since everyone is doing polls:

How many Hurricanes will reach Category 5 strength this year?

A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) 4 or more
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1.) D
2.) C+
3.) A
4.) D
5.) E


You realize that at best you gave the season 11 storms and you voted for 13-15 : )
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Quoting kmanislander:


Good afternoon

I agree that for now the blob offshore Honduras is unlikely to develop any time soon, if at all. However, there are a couple of remarkable similarities to the feature that became Beryl evident down there today.

1. Shear is high over the NW Caribbean and was similarly high when the surface trough that was the genesis for Beryl established itself in the GOH.

2. Beryl came from a trough in the GOH and there is a trough in that area now.

3. The 850 vort for the trough that spawned Beryl was originally located onshore down in the "neck" of the GOH and that is where we see 850 mb vorticity today, though small.

4. There is lower convergence partially below and partially offshore the 850 mb vort. If both can slip offshore just a little to the NE and shear was to ease off things could change in a hurry.

5. Upper divergence is well established.

Of course, none of this means that history will repeat itself but at the very least the area does bear watching.












THANK YOU!!!


Quoting allancalderini:
Ok I am totally confuse Wunderkid show a map where shear is supposedly to decrease and you are showing shear to increase.which is the one increase or decrease?

yes it increases in 24 but drops in 36 hours and drops even further in 48hours
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How to tell bloggers are bored on Dr Master's blog, method # 497 : There are more polls/surveys posted than there is new content.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models



Excerpt:


The models exhibited clear differences among
themselves. The CMC is the most aggressive in
forecasting TC genesis. As a result, it had the greatest
number of hits, but also the greatest number of false
alarms. The NOGAPS was least aggressive, under
predicting TC genesis during all seasons.
Experiments with consensus forecasts revealed
that false alarm rates were lower when multiple models
predicted TC genesis. The consensus approach yielded
better results than any one model alone. For example,
when the CMC and GFS both predict the same genesis
event, there is ~75% chance that genesis will occur
(albeit possibly at the wrong time). This argues that
forecasters should have greater confidence in TC
genesis forecasts made by multiple models.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10838
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Don't forget about allancalderini who made the poll.


I never answer polls but I will this time..this looks like 94l all over again and will say yes, it will develop..only time will tell and I have no problem in being wrong as I have been many times before

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Quoting weatherh98:
Heck im ready to poll

How many storms this year

A 2 or less (joke)
b 3-9
c10-12
d 13-15
e 16 or more

how many landfalls

A1
B2
C3
d4
e 5 or more

how many MDR storms

a 0-2
b 3-4
c 5-6
d 7 or more

how many home growns

a2
b3-4
c5-6
d7-9
e10 or more

when will el nino form? (going random now)

aAugust
boctober
cjune
djuly
eseptember
fnovember


ill say

D D C D A


D
E
C
D
F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
24 hour shear forecast is going to increase a little in the Caribbean.



Ok I am totally confuse Wunderkid show a map where shear is supposedly to decrease and you are showing shear to increase.which is the one increase or decrease?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

The Caribbean blob isn't likely to develop, since it seems to have a few things stacked against it right now.

1. high shear (some signs it may lessen)
2. lack of low-level convergence.
3. no vorticity at any level

It has a chance - but it isn't likely.


Good afternoon

I agree that for now the blob offshore Honduras is unlikely to develop any time soon, if at all. However, there are a couple of remarkable similarities to the feature that became Beryl evident down there today.

1. Shear is high over the NW Caribbean and was similarly high when the surface trough that was the genesis for Beryl established itself in the GOH.

2. Beryl came from a trough in the GOH and there is a trough in that area now.

3. The 850 vort for the trough that spawned Beryl was originally located onshore down in the "neck" of the GOH and that is where we see 850 mb vorticity today, though small.

4. There is lower convergence partially below and partially offshore the 850 mb vort. If both can slip offshore just a little to the NE and shear was to ease off things could change in a hurry.

5. Upper divergence is well established.

Of course, none of this means that history will repeat itself but at the very least the area does bear watching.

Surface trough



divergence



vorticity at 850 mb






lower convergence



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:
Heck im ready to poll

How many storms this year

A 2 or less (joke)
b 3-9
c10-12
d 13-15
e 16 or more

how many landfalls

A1
B2
C3
d4
e 5 or more

how many MDR storms

a 0-2
b 3-4
c 5-6
d 7 or more

how many home growns

a2
b3-4
c5-6
d7-9
e10 or more

when will el nino form? (going random now)

aAugust
boctober
cjune
djuly
eseptember
fnovember


ill say

D D C D A


1.) D
2.) C+
3.) A
4.) D
5.) E
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
Heck im ready to poll

How many storms this year

A 2 or less (joke)
b 3-9
c10-12
d 13-15
e 16 or more

how many landfalls

A1
B2
C3
d4
e 5 or more

how many MDR storms

a 0-2
b 3-4
c 5-6
d 7 or more

how many home growns

a2
b3-4
c5-6
d7-9
e10 or more

when will el nino form? (going random now)

aAugust
boctober
cjune
djuly
eseptember
fnovember


ill say

D D C D A

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
353. JLPR2
Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No


I'll say B, I really doubt it will develop into anything.
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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well looks like the jury has reached its verdict.

Except wunderkid and hurricanes305 pulling up the wild card vote


Don't forget about allancalderini who made the poll.
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Quoting Grothar:
24 hour shear forecast is going to increase a little in the Caribbean.




continue it to 36-48 hours you will see the shear decreases after the 24 hours
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Infallible Tampa Shields at work again..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23494
Quoting Hurricanes305:


A. Yes, just give it time.

hey stealing my word lol
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Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No

A. yes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well looks like the jury has reached its verdict.

Except wunderkid and hurricanes305 pulling up the wild card vote
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
24 hour shear forecast is going to increase a little in the Caribbean.



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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

A


at first 94L did not have or bearly had a surface low and vort. this caribbean system has the same blobly-ness that 94L first had before she was tagged 94L

pre-Beryl also had LL convergence, more time to sit and spin, better model support, and didn't have a front diving in to pick it up.
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At work on 2nd shift here in Charleston. Armed with umbrella and waiting for Beryl. Will probably be a mess out there tonight.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

B: No.


A. Yes, just give it time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE WRN
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
FROM 21N83W TO 16N87W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 16N-21W BETWEEN 82W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
EXTEND SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...
IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1008 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA
NEAR 10N75W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADE WIND FLOW
OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER
WINDS N OF COLOMBIA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE
WIND CONVERGENCE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N E OF 60W. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THE REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PRODUCE OCCASIONAL HEAVY SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AREA BEFORE MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CUBA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No


B. big no
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Quoting HoustonTxGal:



Agree.. I look at all the maps and models available and read info here to get a good fix on what is going on. While many on here are very informed there are some that are just wish casters and I would not put any stock in if they were choosing which socks to put on..lol




What's wrong with one white and one navy sock? Its a new style!
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Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No

A

Quoting TomTaylor:
94l actually had a surface low and a vorticity signature throughout the lower atmosphere. This blob currently in the Caribbean is simply that, a blob, there is no vorticity signature. 94l also had model support from the reliable models once it exited the Caribbean, the current blob doesn't have that - it has weak support from our least reliable models.

at first 94L did not have or bearly had a surface low and vort. this caribbean system has the same blobly-ness that 94L first had before she was tagged 94L
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Quoting TomTaylor:
94l actually had a surface low and a vorticity signature throughout the lower atmosphere. This blob currently in the Caribbean is simply that, a blob, there is no vorticity signature. 94l also had model support from the reliable models once it exited the Caribbean, the current blob doesn't have that - it has weak support from our least reliable models.


Prove my point that the models are on and off with Tropical development. Some models supported 94L then dropped it only to pick it up again close to it developing.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

And 94L never got organized in the Caribbean.



Isnt his blob supposed to go north
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Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No

B: No.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No


Beta
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


It has those issues right now. But it will change later on this week. Note 94L had similar issues.

And 94L never got organized in the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31326
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I hear you, but girl please stop. put you faith on the officals like eg:NHC. because here everything goes wacky sometimes and it could get people killed. I am not sayin to run from this blog but just sit back and learn and don't put faith bad idea



Agree.. I look at all the maps and models available and read info here to get a good fix on what is going on. While many on here are very informed there are some that are just wish casters and I would not put any stock in if they were choosing which socks to put on..lol



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Quoting allancalderini:
Just to know who is in favor and who is not
Do you think the blob in the Caribbean will develop in something?I will say A and give it a shot.
A:Yes
B:No

B, No.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

38 hours.


thats trulyt amazinf
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.