Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting LargoFl:
.....get ready Stormtracker, your rain is coming also..


Can't wait! We had a good soaking this morning so another good rain will be welcome.

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I don't think there's enough Severe Weather warnings out...



Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Fresca Poll

Do you like fresca?

A. Oh yeah
B. eww, no way

Never had one.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Fresca Poll

Do you like fresca?

A. Oh yeah
B. eww, no way

A
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Quoting MahFL:
Beryl is due north of me now in GA, it's beginning to get a touch windier. I think as she is so healthy when the eye even nears water she will re-strengthen. Just over 4 inches of rain so far, in Orange Park.



It looks on ir satellite like she is trying to wrap convection on the west side. I dont understand how that can happen with the front coming in on her
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3075
.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Since everyone is doing polls:

How many Hurricanes will reach Category 5 strength this year?

A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) 4 or more


B: 1 Hurricane Chris
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Quoting weatherh98:


thought you would say that

They probably won't hold together until they reach me :(

Beryl is still hanging in there it looks like.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Fresca Poll

Do you like fresca?

A. Oh yeah
B. eww, no way
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When I posted this image of the Spanish Armada a few weeks ago here(P. 1125,) it was intended to be a reminder to the policy makers in Washington, that the earth can be their best friend, or our worst enemy.

The beneficial rains that have fallen over the parched southeast, delivered by the earliest, yet strongest preseason tropical system in the record books, arrived at Midnight on Memorial Day.

Beryl's well timed arrival is arguably a perfect underline to what is depicted below.

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
"... space-time isn't a table without hands.


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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Since everyone is doing polls:

How many Hurricanes will reach Category 5 strength this year?

A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) 4 or more

A.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I guess nobody ever 3-putts in the CI. A couple a putts is it per green. I like that house rule.


Two putts and a "gimme"
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419. MahFL
Beryl is due north of me now in GA, it's beginning to get a touch windier. I think as she is so healthy when the eye even nears water she will re-strengthen. Just over 4 inches of rain so far, in Orange Park.
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I say E for Cat 5
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
Quoting LargoFl:
.....get ready Stormtracker, your rain is coming also..
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Quoting lobdelse81:


I need a Fresca. Who here loves Fresca?


I think you should ask that in a form of a poll!
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Quoting LostTomorrows:
Beryl is looking like she's well on her way to restrengthening already. She is looking very good.


Beryl can knock it off. I'm impressed though by how well it has held together over land for so long.

I just don't want/need 5+ inches of rain in one fell swoop tonight.
Member Since: July 11, 2005 Posts: 190 Comments: 16972
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Maybe I'll get some storms today:



thought you would say that
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Get ready for rain, it's coming towards us Largo!
all, day ive been waiting for this lol..it just keeps on staying just a bit north of here, hopefully This one will get to me
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Quoting jeffs713:
NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.
Quoting jeffs713:
NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.


F. AOI will develop in NW carib.
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Quoting jeffs713:
NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.

D and E.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31464
Updated map. 850 mb vort expanding and now partially offshore.



3 hours ago



convergence still colocated with 850 mb vort

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Ummmm...does NOAA know something the rest of us don't? Just typed in my zip code (Lake Worth, FL) over at noaa.gov and got the following forecast. LOL:

Hazardous weather condition(s):


Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Special Weather Statement
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast


This Afternoon: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph.

Tonight: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and 2am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Tropical storm conditions possible. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Southwest wind around 7 mph.

Wednesday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind 3 to 8 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday: Hurricane conditions possible. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88.

Thursday Night: Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Quoting weatherh98:


F im to young for beer but i need a coke


I need a Fresca. Who here loves Fresca?
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Maybe I'll get some storms today:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7614
Quoting LostTomorrows:
Beryl is looking like she's well on her way to restrengthening already. She is looking very good.



Looking at infrared satellite, how is she able to be wrapping convection around on that western side ?
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3075
Quoting LargoFl:
Get ready for rain, it's coming towards us Largo!
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Quoting kmanislander:
I know my post said " a couple " of remarkable similarities and then listed 5 !.

Just so you know, in the Caribbean "couple" can mean either two or a few LOL.
I guess nobody ever 3-putts in the CI. A couple a putts is it per green. I like that house rule.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Since everyone is doing polls:

How many Hurricanes will reach Category 5 strength this year?

A) 0
B) 1
C) 2
D) 3
E) 4 or more

D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:
Heck im ready to poll

How many storms this year

A 2 or less (joke)
b 3-9
c10-12
d 13-15
e 16 or more

how many landfalls

A1
B2
C3
d4
e 5 or more

how many MDR storms

a 0-2
b 3-4
c 5-6
d 7 or more

how many home growns

a2
b3-4
c5-6
d7-9
e10 or more

when will el nino form? (going random now)

aAugust
boctober
cjune
djuly
eseptember
fnovember


ill say

D D C D A


1:D
2:E
3:A
4:C
5:Between last 2 weeks of August and Early September
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

continue it to 36-48 hours you will see the shear decreases after the 24 hours


If you read my post 255 carefullym you would see I covered that.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Today is Tuesday


SARCASM
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Quoting jeffs713:
NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.
E. What you got to drink?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Beryl is looking like she's well on her way to restrengthening already. She is looking very good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:
NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.


F im to young for beer but i need a coke
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:
NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.


E!! LOL
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Quoting weatherh98:


today is wednesday


Today is Tuesday
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Quoting jeffs713:
NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.




E
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Kinda like the cruise passengers saying they are going ashore to have a "couple" of drinks...


Exactly :-)
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Quoting Grothar:


How many people think this is a great entry?

A) 10
B) 15
c) 24


e invalid
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NEW POLL TIME!

How may polls will we have today?
A.) We're done for the day.
B.) 2.
C.) 7.
D.) 2 per hour until Beryl emerges from the coast.
E.) I need a drink.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jeffs713:

Thanks for the detailed reply.

Divergence is lined up well with the thunderstorm activity, but the 850mb vort and LL convergence is out of phase with the convection, as the convection is several hundred miles east of the 850mb vort and ll convergence. The trough is kinda splitting the two features.


Agreed again but the opportunity for them to align in exists.
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The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
eastern Palm Beach County in South Florida.

* Until 330 PM EDT
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Quoting weatherh98:


today is wednesday
If you live in Japan then yes today is Wednesday.
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TORNADO WARNING
VTC011-015-019-291915-
/O.NEW.KBTV.TO.W.0001.120529T1818Z-120529T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
218 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LAMOILLE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...
NORTHWESTERN ORLEANS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST VERMONT...
CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST VERMONT...

* UNTIL 315 PM EDT.

* AT 217 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THE POSSIBLE
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SHELDON...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...
LAKE CARMI STATE PARK...ENOSBURG FALLS...BAKERSFIELD...BELVIDERE
CENTER...MONTGOMERY...MONTGOMERY CENTER...

THIS TORNADIC STORM IS ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING.

WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY...PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS...OR HAIL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL
FREE...1 800 8 6 3 4 2 7 9...OR BY SUBMITTING A STORM REPORT AT
WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...VEHICLE...OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. AS A LAST RESORT..LIE DOWN IN A LOW
LYING AREA AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND VERMONT.

&&

LAT...LON 4500 7250 4470 7249 4478 7305 4495 7304
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 268DEG 23KT 4487 7293

$$
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Quoting jeffs713:
How to tell bloggers are bored on Dr Master's blog, method # 497 : There are more polls/surveys posted than there is new content.


How many people think this is a great entry?

A) 10
B) 15
c) 24
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25369
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL.


see how alert pat is shush it ik what day it is
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Quoting kmanislander:
I know my post said " a couple " of remarkable similarities and then listed 5 !.

Just so you know, in the Caribbean "couple" can mean either two or a few LOL.

Kinda like the cruise passengers saying they are going ashore to have a "couple" of drinks...
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I gave 12-6-3 for the season.

Given Alberto and Beryl, add 2 to that 12.


breaking 16000
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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