Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Quoting Hurricanes305:


He got the attention span of a 14 year old. lol


Because he is 3 strikes youre out

You are like number 20 and 2 of the day iggy
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting weatherh98:


Cmc is like apocalyptic haha


not really, it is not that far off from the other models, and although that map may look bad, shear is not extreme or anything, so it just bears watching for the next 3 days.
Could set up anywhere from the TN, and GA to IN and OH, so we really need to figure out where this will go soon.
It should be on the Day3 Convective outlook tomorrow.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NHC confirmed yesterday that Beryl was the strongest pre-June USA-landfalling tropical storm on record.


When?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New CMC further north with the trough, looks to affect the TN and OH valleys the most:
48 hours out..84 hours..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22314
Thanks Analyst. I haven't been online since Friday. Now it's Wednesday.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The NHC confirmed yesterday that Beryl was the strongest pre-June USA-landfalling tropical storm on record.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I was one mb off when I guessed Beryl's landfalling pressure. Not too bad.

This storm was so odd. The second storm of the preseason. Hitting in a place tropical cyclones seldom land. And Beryl just might be the strongest landfalling May storm on record in the US.

The NHC confirmed yesterday that Beryl was the strongest pre-June USA-landfalling tropical storm on record.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
I was one mb off when I guessed Beryl's landfalling pressure last Friday. Not too bad.

This storm was so odd. The second storm of the preseason. Hitting in a place tropical cyclones seldom land. And Beryl just might be the strongest landfalling May storm on record in the US.
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Quoting weatherh98:


Look at what he just said. Lol


He got the attention span of a 14 year old. lol
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
New CMC further north with the trough, looks to affect the TN and OH valleys the most:


Cmc is like apocalyptic haha
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Chicago just may have its warmest spring on record this year.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


He said next week check comment 453 for reference.


Look at what he just said. Lol
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Beryl looks nice and ready to exit into Atlantic.

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Derived from ATCF data for TropicalDepressionBeryl on 29May6pmGMT

The previous mapping from 28May6am
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
New CMC further north with the trough, looks to affect the TN and OH valleys the most:


new UKMET keeps this confined to mainly TN adn North.
GFS is further north, weaker, but may be cycling.
ECMWF is further south than last run, but races the trough/cold front through at a VERY high rate.

this data is what the evening forecast discussions will use, if they are changed at all.
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfcloop/ussatsfc_ loopb.html
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Oops, sorry guys.

I didn't mean the end of next week, I meant the end of next month.

Got distracted, lol.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting weatherh98:


He ment month not week


He said next week check comment 453 for reference.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Wow! very interesting Just image if this pattern continues during the peak of hurricane season when conditions are favorable It could throw a cat. 5 hurricane to the gulf coast or Florida just like 2004.

2004 I did not like that year I thought we were dead when Charley can but then we had Ivan from eyewall to eyewall it was not pretty cat 4/cat 5 at that
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Slowly coming around to the idea huh!


He ment month not week
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Hey if your 14 shouldn't you being in school?


Sweet summertime
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
18z
Statistical


Dynamic
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Hmmm just checking in and I see my city is under a flash flood watch. Been raining here since this morning and hasnt let up yet. We are closing in on 3 inches...Hold on we even had a Tornado Warning here earlier.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am sticking to my prediction that we won't see "Chris" until at least the middle of next week. The MJO is gone, there are low pressures across the USA, and the models show nothing.

I don't see Chris until mid-late June at this point unless we get one of those weird storms in the middle of the Atlantic that forms off a front like a few from last year.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8002
West of St. Auggie. South of Jacksonville. Sigh. we got rain. Lots of rain. Now just sitting out the after storm steam.

A on Fresca

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I am sticking to my prediction that we won't see "Chris" until at least the middle of next week. The MJO is gone, there are low pressures across the USA, and the models show nothing.


Slowly coming around to the idea huh!
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Quoting weatherh98:


NNNNOOOO IT WASNT... BERYL HAD VORTICITY ALREADY AND CONVERGENCE.... Cheesum petes


Hey if your 14 shouldn't you being in school?
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I am sticking to my prediction that we won't see "Chris" until at least the middle of next month. The MJO is gone, there are low pressures across the USA, and the models show nothing.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Age is not important. Knowledge is, as far as weather input. Some teens here know more about tropical systems than their "elders". Just my 2 cents.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow you know what I think now
I think this will be Beryl's twin brother wow its under almost the same conditions as beryl when it was in the same area


Wow! very interesting Just image if this pattern continues during the peak of hurricane season when conditions are favorable It could throw a cat. 5 hurricane to the gulf coast or Florida just like 2004.
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Quoting tazmaniad:


if your to young for beer maybe you shouldnt be bloggig
jusy sayin


what?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow you know what I think now
I think this will be Beryl's twin brother wow its under almost the same conditions as beryl when it was in the same area


NNNNOOOO IT WASNT... BERYL HAD VORTICITY ALREADY AND CONVERGENCE.... Cheesum petes
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow you know what I think now
I think this will be Beryl's twin brother wow its under almost the same conditions as beryl when it was in the same area


Hopefully not the evil twin LOL
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Quoting kmanislander:
Last map for now.

925 mb vort on the rise and recent update for shear shows it having fallen in the area just over Roatan.


wow you know what I think now
I think this will be Beryl's twin brother wow its under almost the same conditions as beryl when it was in the same area
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
Quoting tazmaniad:


if your to young for beer maybe you shouldnt be bloggig
jusy sayin


levi is too young... i think
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting tazmaniad:



Report, minus, ignore, move on.
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To think Hurricane Bud started to dissipated even before making landfall and TS Beryl is holding its own over land for over 30+ hours.
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Quoting Hurricanes305:


Do you think this system will develop?


Too early to say but the similar set up to what we saw ultimately produce Beryl cannot be discounted entirely. Just something to watch for now.
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Today is probably the 9th day in a row we've had downpours once an hour. We've already declared an emergency and the rain keeps on coming....

Fair to say my parents have picked me up from school because of downpours everyday for the last 2 weeks.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...and a look at Beryl.




So?


kay

im an idiot and thought it was alchoholic whoops

no Cocacola
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Fresca Poll

Do you like fresca?

A. Oh yeah
B. eww, no way


I am older than 21- so i can't drink Fresca- only alcoholic beverages.
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Quoting LargoFl:


Its gonna die before it hits tampa
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting kmanislander:
Updated map. 850 mb vort expanding and now partially offshore.



3 hours ago



convergence still colocated with 850 mb vort


note and unlike 94L/beryl it has vort stacked from 850mb to 500mb
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
Quoting kmanislander:
Updated map. 850 mb vort expanding and now partially offshore.



3 hours ago



convergence still colocated with 850 mb vort



Do you think this system will develop?
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...and a look at Beryl.



Quoting weatherh98:


im 14

So? Fresca's not alcoholic. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32717
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think there's enough Severe Weather warnings out...




Never had one.


No they missed a cell
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Last map for now.

925 mb vort on the rise and recent update for shear shows it having fallen in the area just over Roatan.

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Quoting HoustonTxGal:
Fresca Poll

Do you like fresca?

A. Oh yeah
B. eww, no way


im 14
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting kmanislander:
Updated map. 850 mb vort expanding and now partially offshore.



3 hours ago



convergence still colocated with 850 mb vort


as I said not goin to develop today but soon
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12712
Quoting LargoFl:
.....get ready Stormtracker, your rain is coming also..


Can't wait! We had a good soaking this morning so another good rain will be welcome.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.