Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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Just in case you guys missed it the 12Z Nogaps developes Chris in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf.

Friday.


Saturday.
1006 milibar low over Cape Canaveral.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting RitaEvac:
NWS's up in the NE sure go overboard on their warnings, draw gigantic polygons, like in some panic mode

Most severe weather events up here are squall lines though so the storms often cover huge distances... I guess they figure issuing a couple giant warnings is better than a bunch of little ones.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's always nice to see Stewart or Avila cover systems. :P

I do like reading Avila's discussions more than the others... They are often quite entertaining :) I like all the NHC forecasters though... You have to be pretty good to have that job... They deserve a lot of respect.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
My Weather Radio here in York County,PA keeps going off
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Why is that cool? He does plenty of advisories, lol.

It's always nice to see Stewart or Avila cover systems. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Been a while, but new blog.

Beryl to regain tropical storm status, but otherwise, the Atlantic is quiet
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:


Ahem!


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
NWS in wilmington, nc..

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM TUESDAY...TWO BIGGEST ISSUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD
CONCERNS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING TONIGHT AND THE RISK
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
.

TD BERYL IS PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST GA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL BEGIN ITS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...AT
LEAST THROUGH 12-24 HOURS. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM BERYL NOSES
INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME COUPLING WITH THE RRQ OF AN H3 JET
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO A SWATH OF
STRONG UVVS. THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO NEAR 2.3 INCHES WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF HEAVY RAIN AS TD BERYL MOVES THROUGH. QPF WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
2-4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE DISTRIBUTION OF UVVS
IMPLIES THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL COULD OCCUR EAST OF AN
ELIZABETHTOWN NC TO KINGSTREE SC LINE.

IN REGARDS TO THE TORNADO THREAT...A 3 TO POSSIBLY 6 HOUR WINDOW
FOCUSED AROUND 12Z WED MAY EXIST IF THE TRACK OF BERYL REMAINS ALONG
THE COAST. GIVEN THIS TRACK THE COASTAL AREAS WOULD BE MOST AT RISK
GIVEN HIGH 0-1 KM HELICITY AND SUPPORTIVE BULK RICHARDSON NUMBER FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADOES. SPC ALREADY HAS THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
SLIGHT RISK FOR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
NWS's up in the NE sure go overboard on their warnings, draw gigantic polygons, like in some panic mode
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
According to the latest track, Beryl will be right on TOP of me come 2 pm tomorrow.



LOL..they have changed it back to a TS status AGAIN over us..this storm must have them drinking quantities amounts of fresh brewed coffee..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Cool, Avila did this advisory.

Why is that cool? He does plenty of advisories, lol.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
Quoting reedzone:
A CLASSIC summer Severe Weather Outbreak in the Northeast today, watch out East Coast later this evening.

Anywhere less than 50 miles from the coast won't get any storms due to a strong seabreeze... Far inland should be on alert though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
Hi Tropicalwx
Just stormproofed yard
Thank you Loftin
Couldnt do it without you
Tis the season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Managed to churn out a blog update for Beryl just before work, because I'm that good. You can thank me later.

see ya bros


I'll read it later Kori, you always write well in your entries. I got to go. Have a great safe night all!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8849
According to the latest track, Beryl will be right on TOP of me come 2 pm tomorrow.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Managed to churn out a blog update for Beryl just before work, because I'm that good. You can thank me later.

see ya bros
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's faster to go east because water is closer in that direction than going NE the long way. They can feel water masses and take direct paths toward it if steering isn't too overwhelming.
yes it will seek a source
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
General trend today has been to the E-ENE. Guess the NHC views it as a short term wobble and not a direction.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't.

I'm pretty sure my dad would be willing to take me there though.


I hope so. My dad was cool like that too.

Although he never did find out about me and two of my friends sneaking out to surf in Hurricane Gloria (1985).

At night.

Still not a good idea to tell him about that :P
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8849
Cool, Avila did this advisory.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting reedzone:
A CLASSIC summer Severe Weather Outbreak in the Northeast today, watch out East Coast later this evening.



Do I remember you from somewhere?
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 307
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


What do you drive to get there?

I don't.

I'm pretty sure my dad would be willing to take me there though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
9 houses are without power in Wellington FL from the severe thunderstorm today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A CLASSIC summer Severe Weather Outbreak in the Northeast today, watch out East Coast later this evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Water bound

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

LOL.

I'm done with school though (as a freshmen anyways) so I could go to the beach anytime I wanted.


What do you drive to get there?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8849
551. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:34 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wants Beryl to move ENE instead of east. And I know why. He wants to head down to the beach after school tomorrow and watch the storm! If Beryl goes east too much there won't be a show for him.

I'll root for Beryl to gain latitude and lose millibars for you Analyst :) North Carolina raised guys have to stick up for each other!

LOL.

I'm done with school though (as a freshmen anyways) so I could go to the beach anytime I wanted.

I'd rather wait for more significant tropical cyclones.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
550. BaltimoreBrian
8:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
TropicalAnalystwx13 wants Beryl to move ENE instead of east. And I know why. He wants to head down to the beach after school tomorrow and watch the storm! If Beryl goes east too much there won't be a show for him.

I'll root for Beryl to gain latitude and lose millibars for you Analyst :) North Carolina raised guys have to stick up for each other!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8849
549. TAMPASHIELD
8:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Well the Tampa Shield thing only lasts for a short time...

Examples of Severe Weather Events in Tampa Bay:

March 1993 "Superstorm": 96 mph winds recorded in Tampa Bay with line of severe storms

February 1998: Line of severe storms produce wind gusts to 78 mph

September 2001: TS Gabrielle, gusts to 68 mph

April 2004 Cold Front: 60 mph due to low pressure

Severe Thunderstorm Late June 2004: 50-60 mph wind and heavy rain

September 4-6, 2004: TS Frances: 40-60 mph winds

September 26, 2004: Hurricane Jeanne: Gust to 71 mph at St. Pete/Clearwater Airport/ Gusts to 78 mph near the coast

December 2004 Cold Front: 71 mph wind gusts with a low that produced snow over South Texas the previous day

July 2005: Hurricane Dennis in the Gulf produces Gust to 58 mph at St. Pete Albert Whitted

August 2005: Outer band from then Category 3 Hurricane Katrina produces 48 mph gust

October 2005: Hurricane Wilma: Gusts to 56 mph Clearwater Beach Buoy

June 2006: TS Alberto: Gusts 53-56 mph

November 2006: Line of Severe Thunderstorms Produces Tornado Warning and Gust to 61 mph in NE Saint Pete/Pinellas Park resulting in damage

December 2007: Remnants of TS Olga merge with front and produce 78 mph wind gust at Clearwater Beach

January 25, 2011: 75 mph winds with storms in St. Petersburg/Pinellas

March 31, 2011: 90 mph winds move through Pinellas/Hillsborough Counties with large
supercell and line of severe storms; Tornadoes that hit produced gusts as high as 95+ mph.

Mid-May 2011: 72 mph winds reported at Indian Rocks Beach with line of severe thunderstorms

March 4, 2012: Roofs damaged in north Tampa due to very strong winds likely over 60 mph; 56 mph winds at Clearwater with a thin line of storms; 53 mph at MacDill AFB

Early April 2012: 45 mph wind gust with squall line

So Tampa Bay, if you live here long enough, well...you see some pretty wild stuff. As you can see, in the past 20 years, there have been multiple episodes of severe or tropical weather with gusts over hurricane force.


Ahem!
Member Since: April 21, 2012 Posts: 4 Comments: 307
548. CybrTeddy
8:32 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. They're all gonna die.


He doesn't live in Tampa though..?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
547. StormChaser81
8:31 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why is Beryl moving east...?




HAHAHAHHA, classic. Mother Nature does what it wants, But the models didnt show this. lololololol
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2315
546. StormTracker2K
8:31 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, but it should be moving northeast, not east.


LOL! it wants back into the ocean. It may emerge off Savannaha
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
544. StormTracker2K
8:29 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why is Beryl moving east...?


I think it's a left over trough left behind from Beryl. Not uncommon to get these left over troughs as a storm departs to the NE.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
543. ncstorm
8:29 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, that's a problem then. :P



more time over water means more strengthening..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16222
542. RitaEvac
8:28 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, but it should be moving northeast, not east.


It's faster to go east because water is closer in that direction than going NE the long way. They can feel water masses and take direct paths toward it if steering isn't too overwhelming.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
541. BenBIogger
8:28 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quick check of the NAO.
Member Since: March 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1421
540. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:27 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Beryl is moving east because the physical parameters of the trough support that motion.

Well, that's a problem then. :P

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
539. BaltimoreBrian
8:26 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, but it should be moving northeast, not east.


Beryl is moving east because the physical parameters of the trough support that motion.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8849
538. WxGeekVA
8:25 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No. They're all gonna die.


They'll make it. This isn't NC -___-
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
537. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:24 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I got storms a comin!


No. They're all gonna die.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
536. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
8:24 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Because Beryl has a trough to the north.


and thats making the old beryl roll
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
535. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:24 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Because Beryl has a trough to the north.

Lol, but it should be moving northeast, not east.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
534. Hurricanes305
8:24 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why is Beryl moving east...?


It could be just be wobbling east a bit.
Member Since: May 25, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2043
533. WxGeekVA
8:23 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
I got storms a comin!

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
532. BaltimoreBrian
8:22 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why is Beryl moving east...?


Because Beryl has a trough to the north.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8849
531. MAweatherboy1
8:21 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
It's 64 degrees in Boston right now
It's 92 degrees in Springfield in exactly the same airmass
That's the power of the seabreeze...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8032
530. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:20 PM GMT on May 29, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I would really watch this line forming in N FL as this could be a bigtime Flood maker across N C FL tonight and tomorrow morning.




Why is Beryl moving east...?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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