Beryl dumping heavy rains; all-time May heat records set in MI, OH

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on May 29, 2012

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Tropical Depression Beryl continues to bring heavy rains to Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, but has begun to move northeast, and will be spreading heavy rains over coastal South Carolina today and North Carolina on Wednesday. Rains of 5 - 8 inches have been common over Northern Florida. These rains have caused numerous problems with street flooding, but no serious damage. The heaviest rains from Beryl so far have been to the southwest of the center, over Lafayette County, Florida, where 12.65" was measured as of 6:30 am EDT Tuesday near Midway. Beryl spawned one tornado on Monday, near Florida's St. Lucie Medical Center. The twister damaged two roofs and brought down trees and power lines. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and a 19 year old man is missing and presumed drowned from swimming in rough surf in Daytona Beach, Florida. Before becoming a tropical cyclone, Beryl produced heavy rainfall over Cuba, especially Sancti Spíritus Province, where meteorologists reported more than 20 in (510 mm) of precipitation. The rains caused mudslides and flash floods, destroying 47 houses and damaging 1,109 more. Two people died attempting to cross flooded rivers in Cuba.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:05 pm EDT May 28, 2012 by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical depression with winds of 35 mph.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it treks through Southern Georgia today, and coastal South Carolina and North Carolina on Wednesday. These rains will generally not be heavy enough to cause damaging flooding, since the region is under moderate to severe drought. When Beryl pops off the coast near the North Carolina/South Carolina border on Wednesday, wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow re-intensification to a tropical storm. However, tropical-storm-force winds will probably be limited to the right-front side, over the ocean, and the coast of North Carolina will see winds no greater than 35 mph.


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the Valdosta, Georgia radar.

July-like heat wave brings hottest May temperatures on record to Michigan, Ohio
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Monday. The heat was most notable in Southern Lower Michigan and Northern Ohio, where Detroit (95°F), Flint (93°), Cleveland (92°F), and Toledo, Ohio (96°) tied or set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. On Sunday, at least sixteen airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 68 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. Eight airports in the Western U.S. set daily coldest temperature records on Sunday; no airports have set an all-time coldest May temperature record in the U.S. this month. Temperatures 5 - 10°F above average are expected over portions of New England today, but the May 2012 heat wave is pretty much over for the U.S.

Jeff Masters

Beryl's Rain Bands (SunsetSailor)
Beryl's about 75 mi SSE from us and still off shore and on schedule to move over land sometime after mid night. We're getting steady 20-30 mph winds.
Beryl's Rain Bands
Beryl Band (flsky)
Beryl Band

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ok so whos gonna call NOAA and find out?
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
The Big Picture. I told you all nothing was going on in the Atlantic.






Grothar
I looked on your blog and you dont look all that old
Fine looking gent, if I may say so
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Quoting nigel20:

What's going on with all the satellite images?


Solar flare maybe :/
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting nigel20:

What's going on with all the satellite images?


apparently they are in need for some "enhancement"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
The Big Picture. I told you all nothing was going on in the Atlantic.



That's a good one!
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Death Ridge

It actually doesn't look extraordinarily deathly at the moment, unless you're in the southern 2/3 of Texas and points westward. We'll probably see some clouds fill in there pretty soon due to some thunderstorm development north of there.

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
It appears that the weather had died. :P


What's going on with all the satellite images?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Big Picture. I told you all nothing was going on in the Atlantic.


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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models



Excerpt:


The models exhibited clear differences among
themselves. The CMC is the most aggressive in
forecasting TC genesis. As a result, it had the greatest
number of hits, but also the greatest number of false
alarms. The NOGAPS was least aggressive, under
predicting TC genesis during all seasons.
Experiments with consensus forecasts revealed
that false alarm rates were lower when multiple models
predicted TC genesis. The consensus approach yielded
better results than any one model alone. For example,
when the CMC and GFS both predict the same genesis
event, there is ~75% chance that genesis will occur
(albeit possibly at the wrong time). This argues that
forecasters should have greater confidence in TC
genesis forecasts made by multiple models.
Thanks for that. If you got any other papers or links on model performance and biases, feel free to send them my way!
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Dominator Plus package...$2....per chase...uhm...worth it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Yeah, it kinda goes on for a while...



Death Ridge
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Okay, that made me laugh.


:-)

I'm good for a joke every now and then.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
The amount of clear skies west of Beryl to plains all the way to west coast is insane

Yeah, it kinda goes on for a while...



Oh, I still get most of the vis, by the way.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there seems to be some interuption with the data there appears to be a problem


Thanks, KEEP. I thought I forgot to take my blood pressure medicine or something.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I hear that's a problem for older folk...


Okay, that made me laugh.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Maybe it's the first step to the 2012 Apocalypse.
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Quoting nigel20:

Thanks much Grothar...good evening everyone


I wrote that 6 hours ago. :)
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.
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Quoting hydrus:
I have No satellite images at all. Computer is slow too...


You think they all got mad at us for criticizing them?
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The amount of clear skies west of Beryl to plains all the way to west coast is insane
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9685
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

LIES! The sun is still in the air here!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
It appears that the weather has died. :P

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Quoting MississippiWx:


I hear that's a problem for older folk...


LOL
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Grothar:


The winds died off, but many times these systems hold their circulation for a long time. Also, it was able to bring in moisture from the Gulf and the Atlantic. Don't forget, Wilma held together quite well crossing the entire state.

Thanks much Grothar...good evening everyone
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey......quit that..wuja do
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55976
Quoting Grothar:


No, really, all the NOAA models and Navy are blank.
there seems to be some interuption with the data there appears to be a problem
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55976
Quoting Grothar:
What happened to all the models? I can't get anything up.
I have No satellite images at all. Computer is slow too...
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
150 people queuing up for the climb to Everest's peak. Might as well install a chairlift to the top...

...since guides "boast they can get nearly anyone up the mountain as long as they're in decent physical shape and have $65,000 to spare."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting TropicalWxBlogger:


Don't keep your attention pointed towards the black line. There is a white cone there meaning a track between Lumberton, NC, and 33N 78W is possible.

Oh, I am well aware. I was just making an observation.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
i know its the NAM but just for reference

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55976
Quoting Grothar:


No, really, all the NOAA models and Navy are blank.


I think you missed the joke...It was dirty. I should be flogged for saying it. LOL.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I hear that's a problem for older folk...
Well then he will have to drop it in. Providing positions are correct....I am no expert.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22583
Quoting MississippiWx:


I hear that's a problem for older folk...


No, really, all the NOAA models and Navy are blank.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
What happened to all the models? I can't get anything up.


I hear that's a problem for older folk...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What happened to all the models? I can't get anything up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:
THIS THING REALLY LOOKS LIKE TO ME IT WILL BE OVER WATER IN A SHORT TIME. I DONT KNOW IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE NC/SC BORDER ON LAND...oops soory about caps


Not the best news for the Charleston area if that were to be true.
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I think we're in the midst of a satellite blackout.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting GTcooliebai:
NOGAPS has been fairly consistent on the last few runs with low pressure developing in the SE GOM and moving it towards the West Coast of FL. Do you think it depends on how far south the trough makes it as to whether we get development or not?


That's a good question. TA13 seems to think it maybe an ULL. Which is possible because there is one over the Yucatan and it would make sense that this gets kicked NE. And if this is true then we could have another STS.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting K8eCane:
THIS THING REALLY LOOKS LIKE TO ME IT WILL BE OVER WATER IN A SHORT TIME. I DONT KNOW IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE NC/SC BORDER ON LAND...oops soory about caps

It'll probably exit a little south of where the NHC has it judging by satellite loops.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
hey BaltimoreBrian you see when your on parade square and they check your uniform and so on and so on. how the hell do you get those boots shiney like a black mirror cause I was on the square and I got a good beasting from the Lt. I have really tried hard with them but just can't get them up to standards
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
THIS THING REALLY LOOKS LIKE TO ME IT WILL BE OVER WATER IN A SHORT TIME. I DONT KNOW IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE NC/SC BORDER ON LAND...oops soory about caps
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, it's being absorbed by a front by then and is completely cold core.


I think the feature the NOGAPS is showing is also cold core, or almost all cold core.

Edit: But I see you added that already :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 8033
Quoting StormTracker2K:
CMC brings weak low across C FL and then forms Chris off the SE US.


No, it's being absorbed by a front by then and is completely cold core.



The NOGAPS also has it cold-core throughout the entire period.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just in case you guys missed it the 12Z Nogaps developes Chris in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf.

Friday.


Saturday.
1006 milibar low over Cape Canaveral.
NOGAPS has been fairly consistent on the last few runs with low pressure developing in the SE GOM and moving it towards the West Coast of FL. Do you think it depends on how far south the trough makes it as to whether we get development or not?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
CMC brings weak low across C FL and then forms Chris off the SE US.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just in case you guys missed it the 12Z Nogaps developes Chris in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf.

Friday.


Saturday.
1006 milibar low over Cape Canaveral.


if this pans out Chris can develop better than the two with the high sea surface temps but lets see how the upper atmosphere is first
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Just in case you guys missed it the 12Z Nogaps developes Chris in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf.

Friday.


Saturday.
1006 milibar low over Cape Canaveral.

yes I know
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Just in case you guys missed it the 12Z Nogaps developes Chris in the NW Caribbean or SE Gulf.

Friday.


Saturday.
1006 milibar low over Cape Canaveral.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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