Beryl makes landfall, weakens to a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:47 PM GMT on May 28, 2012

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Tropical Storm Beryl lumbered ashore near Jacksonville Beach, Florida at 12:10 am this Memorial Day as an intensifying tropical storm with 70 mph winds. Beryl is only the second named storm to hit on a Memorial Day weekend in the U.S. (the three-day weekend was established in 1971.) The other was Subtropical Storm Alpha of 1972, which followed a path almost identical to Beryl's and made landfall as a 60 mph subtropical storm. Beryl's 70 mph winds at landfall make it the strongest landfalling May tropical cyclone since the May 29, 1908 hurricane, which had 75 mph winds when it brought tropical storm-force winds to the Outer Banks of North Carolina.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 2:35 pm EDT May 27, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.

Damage from Beryl has been mostly minor, with reports of street flooding, trees down, one house with a roof torn off, and power outages to 25,000 people in the Jacksonville, Florida area. One swimmer is missing from Folly Beach, South Carolina, and lifeguards performed dozens of rescues along the Southeast U.S. coast over the weekend due to rip currents generated by Beryl's rough surf. A tornado warning was issued near 10:30 am EDT this morning for the region near the coast to the east of Jacksonville, and Beryl's spiral bands could produce rotating thunderstorms that will trigger more tornado warnings today. A few of the top winds generated by Beryl over the past day:

Mayport, Florida: 47 mph, gusting to 62 mph (11:10 pm Sunday night)
Buck Island, St. Johns River: wind gust of 73 mph (10:35 pm Sunday night)
Huguenot Park: 54 mph, gusting to 63 mph
Jacksonville Naval Air Station: 37 mph, gusting to 48 mph
Brunswick, GA: 31 mph, gusting to 45 mph
Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine: 47 mph, gusting to 58 mph


Figure 2. Estimated rainfall from Beryl from the radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl has weakened to a tropical depression, but will continue to spin and dump copious rains as it slowly treks through northern Florida, Southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina Monday and Tuesday. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts as of Monday morning were generally 1 - 4 inches in Northern Florida and Southern Georgia, with a few regions of 4+ inches. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to exceptional drought. The 4 - 8 inches of rain expected from Beryl will provide significant drought relief in Florida and Georgia, which are suffering rainfall deficits of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 3.) When Beryl pops off the coast of South Carolina or North Carolina on Wednesday, the storm will probably be moving fast enough that it won't have time to generate enough rain to cause serious flooding problems in those states.


Figure 3. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. Image credit: NOAA.

July-like heat wave continues over much of the U.S.
A strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. brought more record-smashing May heat to much of the country on Sunday. The heat was most notable in Indiana, where both South Bend (97°F) and Fort Wayne (96°F) set records for their hottest temperature ever recorded in May. Rockford, Illinois (99°) and Chicago (97°) both had their hottest temperature on record so early in the year. On Saturday, at least nine airports in the Midwest had their hottest May day on record, and 58 out of 456 U.S. airports set daily high temperature records. A compensating sharp dip in the jet stream allowed three airports in the Western U.S. to set daily coldest temperature records on Saturday. Numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley today, where temperatures 15 - 20°F above average are expected.

Jeff Masters

()
Jax Beach Pier pre-Beryl (jaxbeachbadger)
Jax Beach Pier pre-Beryl
Tropical Storm Beryl (Skyepony)
Pouring on Palm Bay.
Tropical Storm Beryl

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Quoting GTcooliebai:

Yep, make that 1007 mb. low:




This could turn into a Noreaster I believe
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Quoting RitaEvac:
These numbers "look impressive" but in reality are still unacceptable...

Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81
What does Unacceptable mean to Mother Nature? Be happy 2012 has been much better than 2011 so far.
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the WRF MM5 NAM NOGAP and somewhat the GFS and GEOS-5 all forecast a system in the W caribbean
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Quoting jeffs713:

I see Tomball's anti-rain shield is still active...
I do not think we should Compare any year in Texas to 2011 that was a very hot and dry year and hopefully we never see one like that again but to compare record drought year with another year means very little to me. Since Texas is pretty dry and hot every Summer be happy if you stay below 100 and get a shower once a month that is the way i look at it in South Central Texas.
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Looks like the southeast is gonna get some sever weather an unusually powerful cold front(for this time of year) barrels through the southeast Fri-Sat!!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:
TX better pray for tropical storm and hurricanes this year
I think High Pressure will keep tropical systems away from Texas, hope I am wrong but the High Pressure in Mexico and West Texas is pretty strong again. Weak front coming thru Thursday is suppose to drop us to low 90s instead of mid to upper 90's for 1 day.
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These numbers "look impressive" but in reality are still unacceptable...

Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81
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678. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
TX better pray for tropical storm and hurricanes this year
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Quoting Skyepony:


Even the GEOS-5 has gone to a open trough for the Caribbean blob as it moves over FL.
Yes. This next trough will shear it. Florida should get some decent rain.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting jeffs713:

I see Tomball's anti-rain shield is still active...


Rain gauge needs to be checked
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Quoting nchurricane:


Thanks King


Don't mention it.

I still think they may be slightly underestimating the wind field at that time and wouldn't be surprised for the counties (carteret dare onslow etc) that border the ocean along the southeast NC coast to see a brief period of tropical storm force.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
SE TX:

Dry pattern upper level pattern of ridging aloft and at the surface continues to support little if any rainfall over the area has been the case for the past 1.5-2 weeks. Ground moisture is starting to dry with the hot afternoon temperatures and gusty south winds


2011 versus 2012 Rainfall:

While the last few weeks have been very dry, rainfall for the first part of 2012 has been extremely heavy with some locations recording their first or second wettest year to date starts on record. Most locations are averaging between 3-4 times greater rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011.



Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81


**Even while rain has been HUGE this year, already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture**

After all number crunching which is meaningless in the end, TX is still in the hole

I see Tomball's anti-rain shield is still active...
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Quoting Skyepony:


Even the GEOS-5 has gone to a open trough for the Caribbean blob as it moves over FL.


Hopefully that can pan out for Tampa as they can't seem to get this rain down into Tampa.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Atlantic looks completely clear of development through the 9th of June according to the models.


Not the Caribbean & Gulf.



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670. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Atlantic looks completely clear of development through the 9th of June according to the models.


Even the GEOS-5 has gone to a open trough for the Caribbean blob as it moves over FL.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37796
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
SE TX:

Dry pattern upper level pattern of ridging aloft and at the surface continues to support little if any rainfall over the area has been the case for the past 1.5-2 weeks. Ground moisture is starting to dry with the hot afternoon temperatures and gusty south winds


2011 versus 2012 Rainfall:

While the last few weeks have been very dry, rainfall for the first part of 2012 has been extremely heavy with some locations recording their first or second wettest year to date starts on record. Most locations are averaging between 3-4 times greater rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011.



Sugar Land: 5.89 vs 30.18 (over 5 times the amount of rainfall in 2012 compared to 2011)

College Station: 7.66 vs 23.12

Crockett: 12.03 vs 21.65

Bush IAH: 6.96 vs 22.24

Hobby: 5.40 vs 26.29

Galveston: 7.73 vs 20.82

Matagorda: 5.31 vs 21.44

Tomball: 4.32 vs 13.63

Victoria: 6.13 vs 11.81


**Even while rain has been HUGE this year, already north of I-10 and east of I-45 where current KBDI values are pushing into the 500-600 range indicating that vegetation health is starting to suffer due to lack of ground moisture**

After all number crunching which is meaningless in the end, TX is still in the hole
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting HurricaneKing:



From the 5am Discussion

BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS
IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY


Thanks King
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Atlantic looks completely clear of development through the 9th of June according to the models.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23878
Looks like it will depend upon how close to the coastline Beryl stays as she moves northeast.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I am supposed to be visiting the NWS in atlanta tomorrow with the weather club TheOnlyBravesFan and I started from our Math Club, i will try to see if i can get any info on what they think of the upcoming system, which will be on day 3 convective outlook by then.

Hopefully there will also be more model consistency, so they wont just say, "we really dont know what will happen"
There is a lot of"what ifs" with this system, but they did feel confident enough to put that slight risk area up three days in advance plus the 4-8. It will be quite a system.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
.
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12Z
Statistical


Dynamic


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15088
Two questions:

1. Given the two storms to date, is there a season pattern emerging similar to the past years where storms followed a dominant pattern such as the curvature into the Atlantic or a few yrs ago with the tracks that stayed low and hammered Mexico?

2. RE: Nea Lake Michigan comments - As a relatively closed ecosystem, my concern would be regarding the rash of invasive species and whether these increased temps may allow the invasives to thrive and hurt the native fish species?
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DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST. BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.

A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...BRINGING THE CENTER OF BERYL CLOSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BACK OVER ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS BERYL APPROACHES THE COASTLINE AND ACCELERATES ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN BERYL COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

Above is an excerpt from 5 a.m. Tropical Depression BERYL Public Advisory(NHC).
Expect an update at 11 a.m.
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Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?



From the 5am Discussion

BERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS
IT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM
WATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES
OR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY
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You think they would considering its about 24 hours out
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Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?
They will put some kind of advisories up. I was thinking gale warnings at the very least.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?


I would expect it.





It still has a pretty good spin and has been over land for what, about 36 hours?
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Quoting nchurricane:
So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?


I'm wondering that as well. Not too much talk on the OBX about the storm.
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So do you think that they will put up TS warnings for the carolinas if its supposed to restrengthen?
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Looks like the showers on the west coast are staying just barely to Tampa Bay's north.
Link
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i think i'm encountering 'stretching of the blog' for the first time... seen it referenced for years, never experienced. is this when a post duplicates in a "stretched out" way while scrolling up or down the comments?
sorry if not topic related; but is blog related :)
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Quoting ncstorm:


our local media is calling for 20-25 mph winds for us tomorrow..seriously? Have they not consulted the NHC maps?


IF Beryl makes TS status again, the strongest winds would remain offshore with an ENE movement.
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Cyclone OZ is heading back to catch Beryl.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
JAX:
AT THIS POINT...TIMING SPECIFICS IS A CHALLENGE. LOOK FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR SVR WEATHER WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN WINDOW OF TIME LOOKS TO BE FROM 3PM THU UNTIL 6 AM FRI.
INITIALLY...HAIL/DMG WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK FOR THU
AFTERNOON/EVE. LATER IN THE NGT THU...WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE
TO A POINT WHERE A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE THU NGT PERIOD.


by the way, seeing any storms right now Hydrus?
The system in the Western Caribbean is interesting. It has an upper low to the west of it that might alter its track. If it actually made it into the gulf, something could spin up, but it likely go up the spine of the peninsula or to the N.E. of it. You can see the upper low over Central America.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20935
I hope the rain from Beryl has been beneficial to those that needed it the most. We're supposed to be dry here in Louisiana everyday except the day I have where a bunch of people are free to come over and help stain the deck and fencing. Isn't that the way it always works...
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I am supposed to be visiting the NWS in atlanta tomorrow with the weather club TheOnlyBravesFan and I started from our Math Club, i will try to see if i can get any info on what they think of the upcoming system, which will be on day 3 convective outlook by then.

Hopefully there will also be more model consistency, so they wont just say, "we really dont know what will happen"
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
There is a lot more rain on tap for FL.




Some parts..LOL
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6813
Hernando county Florida is getting hammered. A report of 6.59" (for the 24 hrs ending 7am this morning) just came in from Cocohrahs site in Brooksvillle. Highest rain report from Cocorahs so far in Florida. Obviously a "training event" there. That's a lot, but they really need it.Areal Flood Advisory
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There is a lot more rain on tap for FL.


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This will all fall apart right before it reaches me, I just know it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23878
Apparently there is a wildfire in Upper Michigan that has done quite some damage.
I didnt even notice this before.

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SPC D 4-8 Outlook:

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE A
SPECIFIC DELINEATION OF 30 PERCENT CALIBER SEVERE RISKS...ALTHOUGH
SEVERE TSTMS CAN NONETHELESS BE EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY EVEN ON A
WIDESPREAD BASIS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. ON
FRIDAY...SEVERE TSTMS SEEM LIKELY WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM THE
TN VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES TO THE APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS AND PERHAPS
MID-ATLANTIC STATES
...WITH 00Z GFS-BASED GUIDANCE GENERALLY
SLOWER/FARTHER WEST AS COMPARED TO THE FASTER/FARTHER EAST 00Z
ECMWF. A SEVERE THREAT COULD EVEN LINGER INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY FOR
AREAS SUCH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST/COASTAL CAROLINAS SHOULD A
SLOWER TROUGH/COLD FRONT SOLUTION MATERIALIZE AS PER 00Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS/GEFS GUIDANCE.

general consensus seems to be all modes are possible, but they really dont have much of an idea on exactly how this will pan out.
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Stretch Of S.R. 40 Reopens After Flooding
Busy Road Closed For 1 Mile Tuesday Morning



DUNNELLON, Fla. -- Busy State Road 40 was closed early Tuesday morning because of water over the roadway.

About one mile of the road is closed in Dunnellon just east of U.S. Highway 41. After a few hours, the road reopened in both directions shortly before 7 a.m.

WESH 2 traffic reporter Kimberly Williams says drivers can use Southwest 31st street or East Pennsylvania Avenue instead.

Stay with WESH for more traffic updates.

Read more: http://www.wesh.com/news/31124740/detail.html#ixzz 1wGHCy9n8
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itsstuck
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


The reason why I'm intrigued is the GFS showed this for several days a decent TS hitting FL last weeks model runs.

Hey stormtrackerk2, I'm on board with what ever you are seeing. You might not be always right but you have a better avg. than most of the weather guys here in tampa. great job!!!!!! Starting to rain really good here in Z-hills today.
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636. Jax82
Nice band of rain setting up for NEFL. Other than some tree limbs and leaves everywhere, i'd say everyone fared well from Beryl.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.