Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

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The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters

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Not seeing any stalling.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


More time to strengthen.
smart storm, also a stall could mean a change in direction.
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I think beryl will become the first hurricane of the season
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12728
Quoting Patrap:
Looks like a stall to me. Not to sure how long it will last but is stalling not a sign of intensification? Or am I mixing it up with super cells.
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Do we havea microwave?
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The RAP is picking up on those 'friction' winds whipping against the GA/FL bend. 
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Fully wrapped. Will be interesting to see how much Beryl can strengthen before it hits the cool shelf off Florida. This won't be intensifying for much longer, but it could get to 65mph before that happens.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Geez that errr...eye looks like its going to crash head on into Jacksonville
YEP waterpuppy needs some rain
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56987

Last Beryl wasn't that far form this Beryl
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BRING IT ON!!!!!!

We need the rain here in the SouthEast!

Mel
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Two things:
1)Beryl's COC is fully closed. If it wasn't, it wouldn't be considered a storm and the NHC would not be issuing advisories on it.

2)Beryl's COC isn't broad at all.


He said this wouldnt happen when i said it would
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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Stall? Don;t stall - need rain NOW.
Short stall now may = more rain later...
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The new thunderstorms on the south side are very intense. They are what appears to be the start on an eye wall.
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Recon. would be quite useful right about now.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting Hurricanes101:


she certainly has slowed down though


More time to strengthen.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


I would have to disagree with your analysis. All data shows a fully closed center of circulation and shows a well defined, tight low. This is definitely not a broad circulation. You may be meaning that the convection has not fully closed off around the circulation. But all indications point to this being a tropical system.


http://i300.photobucket.com/albums/nn39/Stormchas er20079/2012%20Hurricane%20Season/grearth2012-05-2 713-39-58-30.png


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Quoting NEFLWATCHING:
Stall? Don;t stall - need rain NOW.


If it stalls then well i said it earlier
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it is not stalling


she certainly has slowed down though
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Geez that errr...eye looks like its going to crash head on into Jacksonville
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Quoting Grothar:
This is the GFS 66 hours out. My concern with this thing over pretty much the same area for days, the rain will be the big problem. That is too long for a system to hang around.



They need the rain but too much of a good thing, isn't good at all.
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Quoting Ameister12:

Umm... The COC is closed and very tight. Not broad at all.


I was wondering why that person said that???
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Quoting thelmores:


Also Humberto was FULLY tropical...... while Beryl is transitioning, the COC has not fully closed off, and is pretty broad....... thus the comparison between Humberto and Beryl is not a good comparison........

Not to mention, the waters Humberto traversed in its last 24hrs, were much warmer than what Beyrl will traverse its last 24 hours......

Two things:
1)Beryl's COC is fully closed. If it wasn't, it wouldn't be considered a storm and the NHC would not be issuing advisories on it.

2)Beryl's COC isn't broad at all.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Levi just posted on facebook that Beryl may be stalling..DUH to DUH!!!..(over the gulf stream)


it is not stalling
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This is the GFS 66 hours out. My concern with this thing over pretty much the same area for days, the rain will be the big problem. That is too long for a system to hang around.

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Quoting thelmores:


Also Humberto was FULLY tropical...... while Beryl is transitioning, the COC has not fully closed off, and is pretty broad....... thus the comparison between Humberto and Beryl is not a good comparison........

Not to mention, the waters Humberto traversed in its last 24hrs, were much warmer than what Beyrl will traverse its last 24 hours......

Umm... The COC is closed and very tight. Not broad at all.
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Quoting thelmores:


Also Humberto was FULLY tropical...... while Beryl is transitioning, the COC has not fully closed off, and is pretty broad....... thus the comparison between Humberto and Beryl is not a good comparison........

Not to mention, the waters Humberto traversed in its last 24hrs, were much warmer than what Beyrl will traverse its last 24 hours......


I would have to disagree with your analysis. All data shows a fully closed center of circulation and shows a well defined, tight low. This is definitely not a broad circulation. You may be meaning that the convection has not fully closed off around the circulation. But all indications point to this being a tropical system.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Note the 17:15 UTC Rainbow "Connection"

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Stall? Don;t stall - need rain NOW.
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Levi just posted on facebook that Beryl may be stalling..DUH to DUH!!!..(over the gulf stream)
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Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.

Strike:
For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56987
Quoting thelmores:


Also Humberto was FULLY tropical...... while Beryl is transitioning, the COC has not fully closed off, and is pretty broad....... thus the comparison between Humberto and Beryl is not a good comparison........

Not to mention, the waters Humberto traversed in its last 24hrs, were much warmer than what Beyrl will traverse its last 24 hours......
The circulation in no way is pretty broad. Its a tight circulation and has been for most of Beryl life.
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Quoting thelmores:


Also Humberto was FULLY tropical...... while Beryl is transitioning, the COC has not fully closed off, and is pretty broad....... thus the comparison between Humberto and Beryl is not a good comparison........

Not to mention, the waters Humberto traversed in its last 24hrs, were much warmer than what Beyrl will traverse its last 24 hours......


you NEVER know what nature can do... see Vince, Rolf, 91C etc...

Andrea had hurricane winds even before it got classified
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Quoting VirginIslandsVisitor:


It's working fine over here. Water seems to be getting a lot closer to the cam. No beach left. Wish they'd clean the lens though!

www.jaxpiercam.com

..ty, i found a site that has it..im posting the link to it, water seems mad over there, rushing......hate the ad before you get to see it...........................Link
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Quoting Grothar:


Have any little marshmallows?


Why most certainly.

"Nom, nom"
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56987
Quoting Patrap:


I can support dat Gro.

Easily.

Report to The mess tent for some Hot chocolate as well. : )


Have any little marshmallows?
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T.C.F.W.
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
30.09N/79.98W
NEARING LANDFALL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 181 Comments: 56987
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


could it be dangerous when the storm turns back out too???
TS warnings again?


our NWS was saying it may be a non tropical low when it reemerges back into the atlantic..
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


could it be dangerous when the storm turns back out too???
TS warnings again?
If it stays over land for a shorter amount of time it could be a hurricane at some point when it goes back out to sea.
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A Improving DVORAK image scene as well.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
DON'T FORGET HUMBERTO '07 !


Also Humberto was FULLY tropical...... while Beryl is transitioning, the COC has not fully closed off, and is pretty broad....... thus the comparison between Humberto and Beryl is not a good comparison........

Not to mention, the waters Humberto traversed in its last 24hrs, were much warmer than what Beyrl will traverse its last 24 hours......
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Quoting LargoFl:
pier cam is down for maint


It's working fine over here. Water seems to be getting a lot closer to the cam. No beach left. Wish they'd clean the lens though!

www.jaxpiercam.com

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Nice towers blowing up all around the COC with a good deal of Graupel being seen by radar.


It looks like a hurricane, IDK but it just does
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I feel like Beryl is trying to close off an eyewall. If it had a few more days over water, I think we would see a hurricane. In any case, strengthening just before landfall is not good. This will be a HUGE rainmaker now, when yesterday it was nearly a naked swirl.
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On satellite you can't say Beryl doesn't have the classic buzz saw shape.Thank God the rpms are not up to speed.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
FLZ023>025-030>033-037-038-GAZ136-152>154-164>166 -271930-
BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-CHARLTON-
CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-NASSAU-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-UNION-WAYNE-
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL OCCASIONALLY MOVE
INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TEMPORARY
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY.

MORE SIGNIFICANT BANDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL AREA OF
BERYL...ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COASTLINE SOMETIME BETWEEN 4 AND 8 PM. THIS BAND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 430 Comments: 130817
Quoting jaxbeachbadger:


No it isn't, watching it right now.
ok ty
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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