Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

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The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
I heard Gov. Rick Scott has not giving TS Beryl permission to make Landfall until it undergoe's a urine test.


: )



Well that's not good...

This one's loaded up on the NSTP

(Non-supercell tornado potential)

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Beryl is becoming quite pretty!!!!!!!!! Name still blows though. Anyone ever know a Beryl? haha

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Quoting Jedkins01:



True, but my family is doing a BBQ this evening, as much as I love weather I'm not a loner, lol.
Don't worry one of these days when there is another storm me and you will go on the chase. Besides I need to gain some experience :)
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I knew two nights ago that with the relatively favorable environment ahead of her that Beryl would not remain a 50 mph tropical storm. I think sometimes the NHC relies too much on models instead of thinking independently. It doesn't really matter right now though.



I agree.
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also while we all are staring at beryl check out the SW caribbean

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Quoting hurricane23:
Eyewall trying to form.


Been watching this process for the past couple hours. Would not be surprised to see this complete the process and become a minimal hurricane at the rate it has been organizing and intensifying today.
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I knew two nights ago that with the relatively favorable environment ahead of her that Beryl would not remain a 50 mph tropical storm. I think sometimes the NHC relies too much on models instead of thinking independently. It doesn't really matter right now though.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
I heard Gov. Rick Scott has not giving TS Beryl permission to make Landfall until it undergoe's a urine test.


: )

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane or not, I still have to work tonight and will be driving home in 50-60 mph. winds.. Please keep me in your prayers tonight for a safe ride home. Stay safe everyone, head these warnings, Beryl is only 10 mph away from being a Hurricane.
..Praying you make it home safe my fellow Palm Coaster but if push comes to shove..Mc Donalds there at Towne Center is open 24 hrs..crash there for a while..lol
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You could probably make it if you left now. ;)



True! But my family is doing a BBQ this evening, as much as I love weather I'm not a loner, lol.
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sorry, double post
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Quoting allancalderini:
Beryl will probably peak at 70mph now. Imagine if Beryl becomes a hurricane before landfall the blog will go crazy.


I don't know about crazy, but for the month of May perhaps. Sure beats global warming discussions though.
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Quoting jaxbeachbadger:
Just got back from our walk on Jax Beach. Did a wave and kissed the wife for the Pier Cam. It's interesting, like a big tourist event. Temps are nice, wind is brisk, lots of people on the beach and a hundred or so on the pier! The waves are big enough to be slamming into the planking of the pier from underneath, which is interesting when you're on those planks and see the waves breaking on either side of you. Weird to see everything 'so normal'-- Bukkets, the restaurant with a patio on the boardwalk, was full of people sitting having lunch on the patio. Bikers, kids on skateboards, etc. like a normal Sunday afternoon at the beach. Sun's still out, no rain yet here. Winds are increasing.


couldnt see you, the cam was 2 messy and i couldnt see the beach, only the water and pier
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Quoting txjac:


Were you the one that cleaned the cam???? lol


I did send them an email a few hours ago telling to clean the cam for the most important day in their history!
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Eyewall trying to form.
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OK, her'es my best uneducated guess. Beryl will finally become a tropical storm later today, maybe around 1800 EDT. 55 mph sustained with 65 mph gusts. It will make "landfall" somewhere between St. Augustine and Jacksonville and then skirt the Georgia/South Carolina coast as a tropical depression before recurving out to sea. I agree with the NHS - the chances of Beryl becoming a hurricane in the next 72 hours are virtually nill. I wish it would move further west so Southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle would get some much needed rain but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. We'll see if I'm even close to right over the next two days or so.
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Quoting Levi32:
I have set up a script to generate an auto-updating rapid-scan visible loop of Beryl:



Direct link


Looking at that inage...... you would never had known that Beryl was sub-tropical this morning!!!
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Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane or not, I still have to work tonight and will be driving home in 50-60 mph. winds.. Please keep me in your prayers tonight for a safe ride home. Stay safe everyone, head these warnings, Beryl is only 10 mph away from being a Hurricane.
you got them for sure, stay safe and slow down, i drove thru 70 mph winds years ago, a gust almost spun me around
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Quoting Gorty:
What time is she foretasted to make landfall?


Would appear to be sometime around 8 to 10 PM EST give or take an hour.

Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah that is a great sign of intensification, there is also lightning present and indication of thunderstorm tops to near 50,000 ft in those stronger cells, this system battled a massive amount of dry and has won. While this might mean more severe weather for northeast Florida it will mean more beneficial rain.

Man, I wish I had driven up there for it, it would actually be worth the drive now that it has ramped up. The large circulation center will allow a pretty solid wind maxima to effect the coast too...


I'm beginning to think that a good 3 to 6 inches rainfall will come through Northern Florida and Southern Georgia with Beryl which would be much needed relief from the drought conditions plaguing the region.
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Quoting reedzone:
Hurricane or not, I still have to work tonight and will be driving home in 50-60 mph. winds.. Please keep me in your prayers tonight for a safe ride home. Stay safe everyone, head these warnings, Beryl is only 10 mph away from being a Hurricane.


Will be praying for everyone affected, stay safe!
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What I wonder if Beryl's arrival in Florida means that we'll finally start getting those good, classic daytime heating thunderstorms that we've been waiting for in Tampa.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah that is a great sign of intensification, there is also lightning present and indication of thunderstorm tops to near 50,000 ft in those stronger cells, this system battled a massive amount of dry and has won. While this might mean more severe weather for northeast Florida it will mean more beneficial rain.

Man, I wish I had driven up there for it, it would actually be worth the drive now that it has ramped up. The large circulation center will allow a pretty solid wind maxima to effect the coast too...

You could probably make it if you left now. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
541. txjac
Quoting jaxbeachbadger:
Just got back from our walk on Jax Beach. Did a wave and kissed the wife for the Pier Cam. It's interesting, like a big tourist event. Temps are nice, wind is brisk, lots of people on the beach and a hundred or so on the pier! The waves are big enough to be slamming into the planking of the pier from underneath, which is interesting when you're on those planks and see the waves breaking on either side of you. Weird to see everything 'so normal'-- Bukkets, the restaurant with a patio on the boardwalk, was full of people sitting having lunch on the patio. Bikers, kids on skateboards, etc. like a normal Sunday afternoon at the beach. Sun's still out, no rain yet here. Winds are increasing.


Were you the one that cleaned the cam???? lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh gosh, you said it, not me!

Kidding, good to see you thelmores, we haven't seen you in a while.


Always lurking my friend! Good to see you Ted! :)
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Quoting 12george1:
Is any further strengthening possible before landfall?
yes hurricane force wind gusts are possible later tonight into the early morning hours

i am not expecting it to become a full hurricane at this time
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
Quoting Gorty:
What time is she foretasted to make landfall?


Looks like 8-10 pm.
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Quoting Gorty:
What time is she foretasted to make landfall?
Sometime between 8 pm and midnight local time.
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I have set up a script to generate an auto-updating rapid-scan visible loop of Beryl:



Direct link
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535. Gorty
What time is she foretasted to make landfall?
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534. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Beryl is looking beautiful today. Felling bad for the folks on its way, one Memorial weekend ruined.
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Hurricane or not, I still have to work tonight and will be driving home in 50-60 mph. winds.. Please keep me in your prayers tonight for a safe ride home. Stay safe everyone, head these warnings, Beryl is only 10 mph away from being a Hurricane.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Glad someone else was noticing the mesoscale vorticies within the convection on the eastern side of the storm. Beryl definitely has come quite far in becoming a solid tropical storm.



Yeah that is a great sign of intensification, there is also lightning present and indication of thunderstorm tops to near 50,000 ft in those stronger cells, this system battled a massive amount of dry and has won. While this might mean more severe weather for northeast Florida it will mean more beneficial rain.

Man, I wish I had driven up there for it, it would actually be worth the drive now that it has ramped up. The large circulation center will allow a pretty solid wind maxima to effect the coast too...
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Quoting Gorty:
is she fending off the dry air?


Looks like it to me.

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Quoting thelmores:
Don't want to be Captain obvious........ but whether Beryl comes in at 70mph, or 75mph, the Classification will be the only major difference....... the effects will be the same. I still believe Spouts or Tornadoes, while likely to be F-1, will be the biggest risk to public safety (unless you are brave enough to get in the water!).

Seems reasonable that 65-75mph will be the peak, lower end of that range at landfall in my opinion.......

Definitely a rare event for location and timing...... Rare for a tropical storm to hit the East coast of Florida in May!!!

Could this be another 2005?


Oh gosh, you said it, not me!

Kidding, good to see you thelmores, we haven't seen you in a while.
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529. unf97
Still getting gusty north winds of 30 mph + on the back side of BERYL. Right now, we are in a lull with the outer rain bands, but that will drastically deteriote after 5:00 this afternoon here in jax metro area. Beginning to get a little concerned that I may lose power ay some point with beryl making landfall later tonight. Also, it looks that Beryl is trying one last good attempt to achieve minimal hurricane status. She has really taken full advantage sitting int aht 28 degree celsius sea surface temps in the Gulf Stream. The cyclone has only about a couple of more hours left in that water and may max out in intensity before the next Recon plane gets in there later this afternoon.
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Quoting 12george1:
Is any further strengthening possible before landfall?

Yes, it looks to be slowly strengthening now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31883
527. 7544
looks like orlando is getting some action as per the radar are the stroms forming south west coast around ft myers a part of beryl also ? they are moving east tia ?
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Just got back from our walk on Jax Beach. Did a wave and kissed the wife for the Pier Cam. It's interesting, like a big tourist event. Temps are nice, wind is brisk, lots of people on the beach and a hundred or so on the pier! The waves are big enough to be slamming into the planking of the pier from underneath, which is interesting when you're on those planks and see the waves breaking on either side of you. Weird to see everything 'so normal'-- Bukkets, the restaurant with a patio on the boardwalk, was full of people sitting having lunch on the patio. Bikers, kids on skateboards, etc. like a normal Sunday afternoon at the beach. Sun's still out, no rain yet here. Winds are increasing.
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Is any further strengthening possible before landfall?
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Quoting Patrap:


The Impact is well under way as Beach erosion and Thunderstorms and Squalls are occurring.

The storm dosent magically Start with a CoC making landfall.
of coarse i know that pat i was refering to the outer coc nearing or just reaching the coast at that time it may not fully get over land anyway and may just sit there for a while before heading n ne later in the period
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
Don't want to be Captain obvious........ but whether Beryl comes in at 70mph, or 75mph, the Classification will be the only major difference....... the effects will be the same. I still believe Spouts or Tornadoes, while likely to be F-1, will be the biggest risk to public safety (unless you are brave enough to get in the water!).

Seems reasonable that 65-75mph will be the peak, lower end of that range at landfall in my opinion.......

Definitely a rare event for location and timing...... Rare for a tropical storm to hit the East coast of Florida in May!!!

Could this be another 2005?
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Quoting LargoFl:
yes they are..going to be an interesting night for sure, wonder if we will get tropical storm force winds here?
If some of the squalls reach this far it is not out of the question we get Tropical Storm wind gusts. But I doubt anything sustained.
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Quoting Unfriendly:


yes, I'm sure they'll find more FLIGHT LEVEL winds of 64kts . If they found 64kt surface, we'd be looking at Hurricane Beryl right now. Stop overhyping, this is like the 3-4th time i've seen you post that "it has 64kt winds".


they found 64kt surface winds twice, and the data was not listed as questionable.

They finally cleaned the jaxpier cam

lots of people walking on the pier
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
looks impressive looks like it may be trying to form an eye its wraping convection quite nicely around the center
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


special marine warning


Okay thanks!
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15115


Looks like Nassau, Duval, St Johns, Flagler, and Volusia Counties should see initial impacts within the next hour.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Around or just a hair south of Jacksonville.


That's what I was seeing, but a friend in JAX said the news was saying it's going to go north of Jax.......figured I'd best check with the blog to be sure!! Thank you much!!!
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Quoting ncstorm:


whats the box for?


special marine warning
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7505

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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