Beryl a little stronger, closes in on Southeast U.S. coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:21 PM GMT on May 27, 2012

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The beach-going weather this Memorial Day weekend will deteriorate rapidly this afternoon along the Southeast U.S. coast near the Florida/Georgia border, where Subtropical Storm Beryl is steadily closing in. A hurricane hunter aircraft found top surface winds near 60 mph in heavy thunderstorms to the northeast of Beryl's center at 9:15 am EDT this morning; top winds in the region to the southwest of the center were a little weaker, near 55 mph. This region is now approaching the coast of northern Florida. Winds at the Buoy 41012, 46 miles ENE of St. Augustine and to the southeast of Beryl's center, hit 38 mph gusting to 49 mph, at 11 am EDT this morning. Wave heights at the buoy were 12 feet, and Beryl is driving heavy surf that is generating dangerous rip currents along a large section of the Southeast U.S. coast. On Saturday, at least 32 people were rescued by lifeguards at Tybee Island, Georgia due to strong rip currents generated by Beryl's crashing surf.


Figure 1. True-color MODIS satellite image of Beryl taken at 12:20 pm EDT May 26, 2012 by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Beryl was a subtropical storm with winds of 45 mph.


Figure 2. Morning radar image from the long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL.

Forecast for Beryl
Beryl is still a subtropical storm, as evidenced by its large, cloud-free center, but the storm is steadily building a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near the center this morning, as the storm traverses the core of the Gulf Stream. The warm 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F) waters of the Gulf Stream are helping warm and moisten the atmosphere near Beryl's core, and it is possible that Beryl will become a tropical storm before landfall late Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, the fact that the storm has not been able to generate a tight inner core with heavy thunderstorms near the center will limit its intensification potential, and we need not be concerned about rapid intensification of Beryl while it is still subtropical.The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the west. As Beryl approaches the coast tonight, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with lower total heat content. A portion of the storm's circulation will also be over land, and these two factors will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. Beryl is also struggling against a large amount of dry that surrounds the storm, due to the presence of an upper-level trough of low pressure. The 11 am Sunday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 6% chance of becoming a hurricane before landfall. Flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 3 - 6 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 9 - 12 inches (Figure 4.) Heavy rains from Beryl will begin affecting coastal Georgia and Northern Florida near 3 pm Sunday.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall from Beryl, as taken from the 06 UTC May 27, 2012 run of the HWRF model. A large area of 4 - 8 inches of rain (dark green colors) is predicted for the drought-stricken areas of Northern Florida and Southern Georgia. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.


Figure 4. Much of the Southeast U.S. needs 9 - 12 inches of rain (red colors) to bust the current drought. A drought is defined as "busted" when the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) goes higher than -0.5. As seen from the HWRF precipitation forecast in Figure 3, most of the drought relief from Beryl will occur near the coast, and the most needy areas (purple colors in Figure 3) are expected to get little rainfall. Image credit: NOAA.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the FL/GA coastal region
Long-range radar out of Jacksonville, FL
Jacksonville, FL live pier cam

Scorching May heat wave hits much of the U.S.; severe weather expected in the Midwest
An exceptionally strong high pressure system anchored over the central U.S. is bringing record-smashing May heat to much of the country this Memorial Day weekend. Dozens of daily high temperature records fell on Saturday, including several all-time records for the month of May. Vichy-Rolla, Missouri hit 98°F, beating its all-time May heat record of 95° set on May 15, 1899. Columbus, Georgia hit 97°F, tying the record hottest May day on record. Saturday's high of 100°F in Tallahassee was the second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1892. Pensacola's 98°F on Saturday was its second highest May temperature since record keeping began in 1879 (the record May temperature in both cities is 102°F, set on May 27, 1953.) Nashville, Tennessee hit 95°F on Saturday, just 1° shy of their all-time May heat record. That record could fall today, and numerous all-time May heat records will be threatened in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Tennessee Valley. As is often the case when one portion of the country is experiencing record heat, the other half is seeing unusually cool conditions, due to a large kink in the jet stream. Billings, Montana received 1.3" of snow Saturday, and Great Falls had received 2.3" as of 6 am this morning. The dividing line between the warm conditions in the Eastern U.S. and cool conditions to the west lies over Nebraska and Kansas today, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of these states in their "Moderate Risk" area for severe weather--the second highest level of alert.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like the center of Beryl will make landfall between Jacksonville Beach and American Beach, Florida a little after 11PM EDT with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph.

Regardless of whether its called a tropical storm or not operationally, there is a high chance it will be upgraded to hurricane status in the post-season.
Before even getting to your second point.....do you really still at this point expect 70 mph sustained winds ashore? What's the highest we've seen so far?
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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012


A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS IN BERYL FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT...AND A
RAIN-INFLATED PEAK SFMR WIND OF 62 KT. CORRECTING THE SFMR WIND FOR
THE RAIN YIELDS 55 KT. IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE TO FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND SPEED RATIO WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL. EARLIER DOPPLER
RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATED WINDS AT 5000-6000 FT AS STRONG AS THOSE
MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF ONLY 50-55 KT WITHIN THIS
REGION...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER REDUCTION FACTOR WAS REASONABLE.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE STRONG DOPPLER WIND SPEED ESTIMATES WINDS
HAVE DECREASED WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT
3.5. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT BERYL IS NO LONGER
INTENSIFYING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE
LARGE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LEAVING NO TIME FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN
FACT...SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
DSHIPS MODEL WHILE BERYL IS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN BERYL EMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BERYL WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CARRY BERYL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 30.2N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 29/0000Z 30.5N 82.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1200Z 31.2N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 31/0000Z 34.5N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 01/0000Z 37.5N 66.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33117
Final post for tonight everyone. Those in the path of Beryl stay safe. Have a great evening all.

See you tomorrow
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2262. pottery
Quoting Grothar:


I am still sticking to my April prediction of an above average season. I never agreed with any of the predictions.
Quoting Grothar:


I am still sticking to my April prediction of an above average season. I never agreed with any of the predictions.

Yeah!
All predictions are rot.
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2261. Bitmap7
Another wet week here in cayman. Right at the doorsteps.



*sigh*
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Interesting number that 99 was, wonder if there was something subliminal.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Pray not! you think things are bad now!!!

but he has investments in your entity, why do you fear the investor and not the spender?
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Quoting Grothar:


I am still sticking to my April prediction of an above average season. I never agreed with any of the predictions.
Agreed Grothar.I'm still sticking with 15 named storms.People are underestimating this season just like they underestimated Beryl.
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Wind shear in that area should decrease and plenty of moisture associated with the system in the caribbean
probably could ramp up quickly
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2255. Grothar
Quoting Tazmanian:



start of june will be fun


I am still sticking to my April prediction of an above average season. I never agreed with any of the predictions.
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2253. Patrap
Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap leave Maxwell Smart out of this.


I liked Agent 99,she had Looks and Moxie.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130487
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormBeryl for 28May12amGMT:
30.0n79.9w has been re-evaluated&altered
30.1n79.9w, 30.1n80.6w are now the most recent positions
Its vector had changed from WSWest at ~10.3mph(16.5km/h) to West at ~6.9mph(11.2km/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from ~55knots(63mph)102km/h to ~60knots(69mph)111km/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 997millibars to 993millibars

For those who like to visually track TS.Beryl's path...
COI is MerritIsland . KXFL is FlaglerBeach . UST is ST.Augustine . FD48 is PonteVedraBeach

The Easternmost dot on the kinked line is where Invest94L became SubTropicalStormBeryl
The Westernmost dot on the kinked line is where STSBeryl became TropicalStormBeryl
The Easternmost dot on the Westernmost line-segment was TS.Beryl's most recent position

The Westernmost line-segment is a straightline-projection
through TS.Beryl's 2 most recent positions to the coastline.
The KFXL dumbbell was the endpoint of the 27May12pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
The KFXL*dumbbell was also the endpoint* of the 27May6pmGMT* straightline projection*
connected to its closest airport.
On 28May12amGMT, TS.Beryl was headed toward passing ~9.3miles(15kilometres) North of St.Augustine,Florida and about the same distance South of PonteVedraBeach,Florida in ~3&1/2.hours from now

Copy&paste fpr-27.39n80.26w, fpr-27.426n80.274w,coi-28.3779n80.6w, kxfl-29.515n81.145w, kxfl-29.601n81.184w, ust-30.096n81.339w, fd48-30.20n81.366w, jax, gge-33.292n79.172w, 32.3n74.9w, 32.4n75.3w, 31.9n76.0w, 31.6n76.3w, 31.0n76.9w, 30.6n78.0w, 30.3n78.9w, 30.1n79.9w, 30.1n79.9w-30.1n80.6w, 30.1n79.9w-30.096n81.339w into the GreatCircleMapper for more^information.
The previous mapping for comparison.

* 30.0n79.9w was re-evaluated&altered to 30.1n79.9w. So an incorrect vector(direction&speed) was calculated for 24May6pmGMT from using the original incorrect position.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector has been corrected to reflect that change.
The original incorrect vector produced an incorrect straightline projection leading to an incorrect endpoint on the KXFL dumbbell
Nonetheless I am reposting the incorrect KXFL dumbbell to maintain historicity with the previous map.

^ For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 32.3n74.9w and the first 30.1n79.9w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 30.1n79.9w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters. So I couldn't leave a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


the true tropical waves in 2005 didnt really go trigger happy either until they were close to home

Only 1 storm out of the record 28 was considered a cape very storm (Irene)
Maria and Lee were also Cape verde I think.
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...CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND...TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 81.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Quoting kmanislander:


So have we LOL
And then some.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Mitt Romney.

Pray not! you think things are bad now!!!
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Quoting Patrap:



Ahh, but what about the Pope's secret Shoe account, hmmm, Hmmm?

It was under the mattress therefore a Cayman account.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
No change to Beryl's strength.



11pm not out yet
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Patrap leave Maxwell Smart out of this.
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TROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
0300 UTC MON MAY 28 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 81.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 20SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 81.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 80.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.5N 82.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 31.2N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 34.5N 75.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 37.5N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 40.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 81.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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Quoting Patrap:



Ahh, but what about the Pope's secret Shoe account, hmmm, Hmmm?


The blob will wash away all evidence of same and so we come full circle.

Rain now about 30 miles to the South. Ah well, what can you do ??
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2242. Dsntslp
Jacksonville, FL JEA Power Outage Map:

Link
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No change to Beryl's strength.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33117
2240. pottery
Quoting tropicfreak:
Seriously.... why didn't the NHC classify it as a hurricane??? IMO there is very solid evidence from the hurricane hunters and from velocity scopes on radar that this IS a hurricane. What is keeping them from classifying it. Whether it is 70 or 75 mph it's still going to do the same amount of damage. What is wrong with them???

You can't classify something as a "Hurricane" based on damage....
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Good luck to all those in the storm path -- hope the electric outages don't last long.

Will be around tomorrow to keep an eye on the new blob peeking up south of us.
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2238. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
Pay no attention to the thingee behind the NOAA logo right corner.

All is well.

thats ah sleeper thats it nothing to see here move along
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 180 Comments: 56480
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, they did arrest the Pope's butler did they not ??.
Turns out the pope has a WU account so watch out with what you say. ;)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/pope
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2236. wpb
still getting better organized lucky its run out of water.most were told of a 50 mph tropical storm on saturday

be safe
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2235. Patrap
<
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130487
Seriously.... why didn't the NHC classify it as a hurricane??? IMO there is very solid evidence from the hurricane hunters and from velocity scopes on radar that this IS a hurricane. What is keeping them from classifying it. Whether it is 70 or 75 mph it's still going to do the same amount of damage. What is wrong with them???
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
2233. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, they did arrest the Pope's butler did they not ??.



Ahh, but what about the Pope's secret Shoe account, hmmm, Hmmm?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130487
Quoting Hurricanes305:
Hey, Wunderblog I new to this.
But exactly is that burst of convection in the carribean.

Check out paragraph P8 (especially the last sentence of paragraph P8) in my blog post...that is the more detailed version of the answer you are looking for. If that explanation doesn't make sense...I am not doing a good enough job explaning...so feel free to leave questions.
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Quoting Patrap:


Nyet..


I think the GFS has
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2230. pottery
Quoting zoomiami:
Kman -- please keep the "blob" to yourself -- we've had more than enough rain here.

Hi Pottery ---- long time no see/talk. How's the island life?


Kman has had plenty too.
All is well down here.
Looking East and seeing Things....
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2229. Patrap
Quoting RussianWinter:
Have any of the models picked up the group of thunderstorms by the Yucatan area?


Nyet..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130487
Cyberteddy --- I have not forgotten that the storms follow you, where are you these days?
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Quoting zoomiami:
Kman -- please keep the "blob" to yourself -- we've had more than enough rain here.

Hi Pottery ---- long time no see/talk. How's the island life?



So have we LOL
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2226. Patrap
Why, I love it here, "where the Posts are the Right Height"..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130487
The fat blob is in a moist environment...
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Have any of the models picked up the group of thunderstorms by the Yucatan area?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

609...Mitt Romney...Chris...Cyclone...it all makes sense...you guys are making me paranoid! Next thing you know we will be talking about the freemasons....


Well, they did arrest the Pope's butler did they not ??.
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2222. pottery
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

609...Mitt Romney...Chris...Cyclone...it all makes sense...you guys are making me paranoid! Next thing you know we will be talking about the freemasons....

LOL, brilliant!
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I got it by George in 4 tries.
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Kman -- please keep the "blob" to yourself -- we've had more than enough rain here.

Hi Pottery ---- long time no see/talk. How's the island life?

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Quoting Grothar:


I think so Taz, they have been having it for a few days now.



start of june will be fun
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


forms in November, the worst natural disaster in US history lol



Get a clue.
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2217. Patrap
Quoting HurrikanEB:


the interesting thing about beryls location is that even before the center actually makes landfall, the storm will be/is more than half over land already.


Thats why I hate the "Landfall" term completely, as folks riding out the storm with Lil info think its still Hours away as conditions even go down hill.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130487
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually 609 if you look closely

609...Mitt Romney...Chris...Cyclone...it all makes sense...you guys are making me paranoid! Next thing you know we will be talking about the freemasons....
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2215. Patrap
Quoting tropicfreak:


That's a hurricane....


You are like a hurricane
There's calm in your eye.
And I'm gettin' blown away
To somewhere safer
where the feeling stays.
I want to love you but
I'm getting blown away.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 429 Comments: 130487

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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