Subtropical Storm Beryl forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

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The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.

The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.


Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.


Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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1463. icmoore
Quoting LargoFl:
...........a few showers around Tampa bay area



Hmmm looks like that might come on down to Madeira Beach.
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1462. LargoFl
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning everybody and thank you to Largo and all who make it easy for an old under-caffeinated sleep deprived woman to get caught up on Beryl :)
thanks, hope everyone is listening and prepares for this storm, stay safe
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Beryl's center is now almost covered by convection:



Satellite loops show that deeper convection has been on the increase this morning and these cloud tops are cooler than those seen yesterday with this storm. This is all sign that Beryl is transitioning to a tropical cyclone.
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Good morning every one

Looks like Beryl is a little south of there tracking marks has any one else notice this ? they are calling for 1.5 inches here in Tallahassee
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Quoting icmoore:
Good morning everybody and thank you to Largo and all who make it easy for an old under-caffeinated sleep deprived woman to get caught up on Beryl :)
My sentiments exactly! Couldn't agree more..
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1458. 10Speed

can you imagine, 15 inches of rain in 3 days?


Nope and I am going to have to see it to actually believe it.
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1457. icmoore
Good morning everybody and thank you to Largo and all who make it easy for an old under-caffeinated sleep deprived woman to get caught up on Beryl :)
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1456. LargoFl
...........a few showers around Tampa bay area
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
Time: 11:17:00Z
Coordinates: 30.8N 79.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 969.6 mb (~ 28.63 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 305 meters (~ 1,001 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.6 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 57° at 48 knots (From the ENE at ~ 55.2 mph)
Air Temp: 20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Dew Pt: 19.9°C (~ 67.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data


Where do you find that information at?
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1454. LargoFl
..................jacksonville beaches
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Time: 11:17:00Z
Coordinates: 30.8N 79.3667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 969.6 mb (~ 28.63 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 305 meters (~ 1,001 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1004.6 mb (~ 29.67 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 57° at 48 knots (From the ENE at ~ 55.2 mph)
Air Temp: 20.0°C (~ 68.0°F)
Dew Pt: 19.9°C (~ 67.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 50 knots (~ 57.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 43 knots (~ 49.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 3 mm/hr (~ 0.12 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting LargoFl:
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Subtropical storm Beryl is less than approximately 160 miles east Jacksonville Beach and is moving west southwest at10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph with higher gusts. The pressure is 998 mb. The circulation center is still expected to make landfall in our viewing area by this evening.

Preparations should include securing loose objects in your yard. Wind and rain will increase during the day Sunday with wind gusts near 60 mph possible by Sunday evening. Rainfall totals may reach 5-10" with totals over 15 inches by Wednesday. Although this is needed rain, the combination of rains like this and high tides will cause problems and possibly flooding.

Quoting LargoFl:
can you imagine, 15 inches of rain in 3 days? if you live near a stream etc, pay attention to your local warnings



localized flooding in low-lying areas may be a problem as this will grind the coast for an extended time....due to the drought conditions water will not initially want to soak into the ground as fast so flash floods could be a factor....

Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
1451. LargoFl
Quoting Mamasteph:
TY Largo..hatches are all batten down here as I have small children..but most of the small streams here have all but dried up..so they actually need that rain..i.e. don't even hear the tree frogs anymore..and mosquitoes aren't even a problem yet! It would help if they closed the beaches..but then the tourism board will have a hissy fit..tho I did see some of the beach patrol today moving the lifeguard benches..lol..hint hint ...
ok stay safe out there ok,I think i read jacksonville banned people from the water, lets hope people listen.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
TY Largo..hatches are all batten down here as I have small children..but most of the small streams here have all but dried up..so they actually need that rain..i.e. don't even hear the tree frogs anymore..and mosquitoes aren't even a problem yet! It would help if they closed the beaches..but then the tourism board will have a hissy fit..tho I did see some of the beach patrol today moving the lifeguard benches..lol..hint hint ...
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1449. LargoFl
Quoting LargoFl:
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Subtropical storm Beryl is less than approximately 160 miles east Jacksonville Beach and is moving west southwest at10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph with higher gusts. The pressure is 998 mb. The circulation center is still expected to make landfall in our viewing area by this evening.

Preparations should include securing loose objects in your yard. Wind and rain will increase during the day Sunday with wind gusts near 60 mph possible by Sunday evening. Rainfall totals may reach 5-10" with totals over 15 inches by Wednesday. Although this is needed rain, the combination of rains like this and high tides will cause problems and possibly flooding.
can you imagine, 15 inches of rain in 3 days? if you live near a stream etc, pay attention to your local warnings
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1448. LargoFl
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Subtropical storm Beryl is less than approximately 160 miles east Jacksonville Beach and is moving west southwest at10 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 50 mph with higher gusts. The pressure is 998 mb. The circulation center is still expected to make landfall in our viewing area by this evening.

Preparations should include securing loose objects in your yard. Wind and rain will increase during the day Sunday with wind gusts near 60 mph possible by Sunday evening. Rainfall totals may reach 5-10" with totals over 15 inches by Wednesday. Although this is needed rain, the combination of rains like this and high tides will cause problems and possibly flooding.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting LargoFl:
people should be nowhere near the beaches and especially IN the water today, real dangerous rip currents etc


Yeah, you and I know that...am sure Beach Patrol is on high alert. Then you've got the wind, rain, squally weather and holiday traffic later. Could be a bad day for some folks. Sunny here right now so am sure there are people heading for the beach as we speak. Will go down there myself shortly and check it out.
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Quoting unf97:


Yes. The Recon plane is approaching Beryl currently.


ty :)
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
1445. unf97
Quoting odinslightning:
is hh in the air?


Yes. The Recon plane is approaching Beryl currently.
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1444. LargoFl
Quoting Chicklit:
Link Rip Current Risk High

...DAYTONA BEACH PATROL RECORDED AT LEAST SEVENTY
RESCUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST AND MOST TREACHEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WHICH WILL IMPACT AREA BEACHES TODAY...
people should be nowhere near the beaches and especially IN the water today, real dangerous rip currents etc
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
is hh in the air?
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
Link Rip Current Risk High

...DAYTONA BEACH PATROL RECORDED AT LEAST SEVENTY
RESCUES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF THE STRONGEST AND MOST TREACHEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WHICH WILL IMPACT AREA BEACHES TODAY...

It is deceptively calm here right now.
I fear for the swimmers and boaters today who are not taking this storm seriously.
Link East Coast Water Vapor Loop

Partly Cloudy
Temperature 72.4 F Feels Like 71 F
Wind(mph)4.0
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if convergence strengthens in the next 3 hr pass don't be surprised to see the quasi-eyewall either jump forward west or backwards east a few miles as it aligns from 850mb-500mb. if i was a betting man i would expect a slight backwards jump of the quasi-eye to the east given the maps.....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
1440. LargoFl
Recently, A NOAA buoy located off the South Carolina coast recorded wind gusts up to 35 mph, with wave heights surpassing 10 feet. Beryl's Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from its center, and will impact the warned area later today. Preparation to protect life and property should be rushed to completion for residents stretching from Florida`s central Atlantic Coast to central South Carolina.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1439. LargoFl
Quoting Mamasteph:
Good Morning all..local news from cf13 says storm 171 mi. from jacksonville..163 miles from daytona..moving sw @10...Nhc says tropical storm winds stretch 90 miles from center...palm coast fl is 62 miles from jacksonville...so..as it hits jax it hits down to flagler county too..so maybe we are all correct..lol!
stay safe out there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Surf in Indialantic this am.Clean with Beryl being north of us. 3-4 ft.Headed out the door now after a few cups of Coffee.

Link
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Good Morning all..local news from cf13 says storm 171 mi. from jacksonville..163 miles from daytona..moving sw @10...Nhc says tropical storm winds stretch 90 miles from center...palm coast fl is 62 miles from jacksonville...so..as it hits jax it hits down to flagler county too..so maybe we are all correct..lol!
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1436. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Good morning,
Link ECFL Weather Page

Beryl Approaching the Northeast Florida Coast - Deteriorating Weather Today -

Link URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
614 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
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1434. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1433. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting Gorty:


100%b of all TS has no eye wall. I dont think a TC gets an eye wall till they hit cat 3. hurricane status.



what i meant was the dry air entrained in the broad area of low pressure......and hurricanes begin at 75mph (cat 1) :)
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
1431. Gorty
Quoting odinslightning:


when i watch the loops and read the maps (keep in mind im not a professional, but i kinda understand) she looks like she wants to act tropical, but the lack of a well defined eyewall still suggests she isnt completely tropical....


maybe she is sub-nontropical/sub-tropical....lol.... the category between S-TS and TS lol


100% of all TS has no eye wall. I dont think a TC gets an eye wall till they hit cat 3. hurricane status.
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Quoting Gorty:


So is she close to becoming tropical?


when i watch the loops and read the maps (keep in mind im not a professional, but i kinda understand) she looks like she wants to act tropical, but the lack of a well defined eyewall still suggests she isnt completely tropical....


maybe she is sub-sub-tropical....lol.... the category between S-TS and TS lol


however, the wind won't be the main cause of damage(s), it's the amount of rain she can entrain and stack before she comes ashore.....50-60 mph winds grinding slow along the coast will force water into vents, around flashing, etc...... a slow grinding storm as it makes landfall allows for more water to fall from the sky, thus making downed trees more of a possibility as the ground is loosened by absorbing water and the wind continues to pull and push at the trees/palms.....

at worst i am expecting damages like Hurricane Irene in Massachusetts.....Not the flooding like Vermont/Maine got, but minor wind damages over a wide area.....not everyone will have a wind/flood claim, but there will be thousands of claims regardless......how many thousands will be dependent upon how well she converges and stacks moisture around her bands....
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
1429. Gorty
Quoting odinslightning:
mornin every1.....

looks like she has converged and consolidated considerably while we were asleep....

convergence--

Link

lack of winds at the coast also suggests she is stacking vertically....

sheer tendency --

Link

interesting next 4 hrs as convection flares around subtrop eye. i think wind/flood peril will be mainly dependent upon how much water she can entrain in the next 12-16 hrs prior to landfall.....

WV loop--NOAA/NASA

Link

strong ts winds w/ tons of downpours can/will cause water penetration into structures as well as downing trees on covered property. However this won't produce severe wind damage(s); regardless i am very impressed w/ her structure given the time of year it is......


So is she close to becoming tropical?
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mornin every1.....

looks like she has converged and consolidated considerably while we were asleep....

convergence--

Link

lack of winds at the coast also suggests she is stacking vertically....

no impediment from shear--

shear tendency --

Link

interesting next 4 hrs as convection flares around subtrop eye. i think wind/flood peril will be mainly dependent upon how much water she can entrain in the next 12-16 hrs prior to landfall.....

WV loop--NOAA/NASA

Link

strong ts winds w/ tons of downpours can/will cause water penetration into structures as well as downing trees on covered property. However this won't produce severe wind damage(s); regardless i am very impressed w/ her structure given the time of year it is......
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 514
Good Morning all. Just got caught up on Beryl,want to thank the night crew for all their good input!
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1426. WxLogic
Good Morning
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1425. unf97
Looking at Jax radar, the first outer rain bands associated with Beryl are about 50-60 miles offshore Jacksonville Beach currently. They should approach on the coast by 10-11 a.m. this morning.
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1424. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1423. LargoFl
.....................Gee, look how close it is, this may well come ashore before midnight
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1422. LargoFl
Quoting reedzone:


I was totally confident on this making landfall in St. Johns County, and it was looking so good last night until I woke up and saw it changed course back to the forecast models and NHC track.
yeah it fooled some others also,but we all know these storms have a mind of their own, we can only guess and hope we are right..have a great day and stay safe ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1421. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Quoting LargoFl:
local weather guy said its also picked up a lil speed too,would not be surprised if it came ashore earlier than midnight, also has a small window, couple of hours or so, to turn tropical, but waters are cooler nearer the shoreline


I was totally confident on this making landfall in St. Johns County, and it was looking so good last night until I woke up and saw it changed course back to the forecast models and NHC track.
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1419. LargoFl
Quoting reedzone:
Ok ok... I was wrong, the models were right. Beryl will be making landfall north of St. Augustine. At least I'm willing to admit I was wrong... Beryl just quickly turned more west, aligning itself back with the forecast models and NHC track after a continued SW motion.
local weather guy said its also picked up a lil speed too,would not be surprised if it came ashore earlier than midnight, also has a small window, couple of hours or so, to turn tropical, but waters are cooler nearer the shoreline
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
Ok ok... I was wrong, the models were right. Beryl will be making landfall north of St. Augustine. At least I'm willing to admit I was wrong... Beryl just quickly turned more west, aligning itself back with the forecast models and NHC track after a continued SW motion.
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1417. unf97
Quoting LargoFl:
ok good your right on the track over there, stay safe ok and let us know whats happening as best you can


Yes I will update as much as possible. I hope to hear from Aquak on blog today as Beryl makes landfall.

The NWS office here in Jacksonville is projecting landfall either at Ponte Vedra or Jacksonville Beach at approximately midnight on their AFD product this morning.
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Recon should reach the storm in about an hour


Live Recon Data in Google Earth
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1415. LargoFl
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
TONIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO NEW INFORMATION IS INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT. ALL PRIOR WATCHES
AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
BAKER...NASSAU...DUVAL...CLAY...ST JOHNS...PUTNAM...FLAGLER...
WAYNE...BRANTLEY...INLAND GLYNN...COASTAL GLYNN...CHARLTON...
INLAND CAMDEN AND COASTAL CAMDEN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
ALL OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
UNION...BRADFORD...BACON...APPLING...WARE...PIERC E AND CLINCH.

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT IN EFFECT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...COLUMBIA...
GILCHRIST...ALACHUA...MARION...COFFEE...JEFF DAVIS...ATKINSON AND
ECHOLS...POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM RELATED HAZARDS ARE STILL A
CONCERN.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.5N...LONGITUDE 78.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 160 MILES
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FL. STORM MOTION WAS WEST SOUTHWEST OR 255
DEGREES AT 10 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
SUB-TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST SOUTHWEST AND
ON THIS TRACK WOULD APPROACH THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA COAST TONIGHT. WINDS AND RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE AROUND 11 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FLZ023-GAZ136-152-164-271600-
/O.CON.KJAX.TR.W.1002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BAKER-WAYNE-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-
551 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FINAL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. THE ONSET OF GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINS CAN CAUSE OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES TO BECOME DANGEROUS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. IF YOU
LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...LEAVE IT FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 63 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF U.S.
HIGHWAY 301. RESIDENTS SHOULD MOVE LOOSE ITEMS INDOORS... SUCH AS
GARBAGE CANS AND OUTDOOR FURNITURE...AS THEY WILL BE BLOWN AROUND.
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...POSSIBLY HIGHER IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS. RAINBANDS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE STORM SLOWING
DOWN ONCE IT MAKES LANDFALL AND STALLING OVER THE AREA. A FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF STATE ROAD 16
IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS WELL AS ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

...TORNADOES...
HERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT AS RAINBANDS MOVE INLAND.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1414. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950
1413. LargoFl
....................Tampa Bay 7 day
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37950

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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