Subtropical Storm Beryl forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:03 PM GMT on May 26, 2012

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The second named storm of this unusually fast-starting 2012 Atlantic hurricane season is here. Subtropical Storm Beryl formed Friday night, a few hundred miles east of the South Carolina coast, from an area of disturbed weather that had moved from the Western Caribbean northeastward. Beryl's formation marks the first time since the hurricane season of 1908 that two Atlantic named storms have formed so early in the year. The only other year with two storms so early in the year was 1887. Records of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic extend back to 1851.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Beryl.

The clockwise flow of air around an extremely intense ridge of high pressure that is bringing record heat to the Midwest this weekend is currently driving Beryl to the southwest, and this motion is likely continue until Beryl is very close to the Georgia/Northern Florida coast on Sunday night. As I explain in my Subtropical Storm Tutorial, a subtropical storm typically has a large, cloud free center of circulation, with very heavy thunderstorm activity in a band removed at least 100 miles from the center. The difference between a subtropical storm and a tropical storm is not that important as far as the winds they can generate, but tropical storms generate more rain. A key difference between tropical and subtropical storms is that tropical systems have the potential to quickly grow into hurricanes, while subtropical storms do not. Thus, we need not be concerned about Beryl intensifying to hurricane strength while it is still subtropical. If the storm manages to build a large amount of heavy thunderstorms near its center, these thunderstorms should be able to add enough heat and moisture to the atmosphere to turn Beryl into a tropical storm. This process will be aided as Beryl passes over the warmest waters of the Gulf Stream Saturday night and Sunday morning. But as Beryl makes its likely transition to a tropical storm on Sunday afternoon and evening as it approaches the coast, the storm will move off of the warmest Gulf Stream waters into waters that are cooler (25°, 77°F), and with with lower total heat content. This will limit the storm's potential to strengthen. The 11 am Saturday wind probability advisory from NHC gave Beryl just an 8% chance of becoming a hurricane. There is a lot of dry air surrounding Beryl, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system aloft, and this will keep rainfall amounts much lower that what we would expect if Beryl was a tropical storm. Thus, flooding due to heavy rains is probably not a huge concern with this storm, particularly since the Southeast U.S. coast is under moderate to extreme drought. The 2 - 4 inches of rain expected from Beryl will not be enough to bust the drought, since the Southeast U.S. is generally suffering a rainfall deficit of 8 - 12 inches (since October 1.) Heavy rains from Beryl are not likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida until Sunday.


Figure 2. Moderate to exceptional drought is currently gripping the Southeast U.S.; Beryl's rains would be welcome. Image credit: U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Bud hits Mexico and dissipates
Hurricane Bud hit Mexico as a tropical depression early this morning, and has now dissipated, thanks to dry air, wind shear, and interaction with Mexico's mountainous terrain. As Bud approached Mexico on Friday, it brought tropical storm-force winds and heavy rains to the coast. Winds at Manzanillo peaked at 41 mph, with a gust to 55 mph, Friday afternoon. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record so early in the year in the Eastern Pacific. There are no reports of deaths or damage from Bud so far, and with only another inch or so of rain expected from the storm, Mexico appears to have escaped serious damage.


Figure 3. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 1:15 pm EDT May 25, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:



That is the 5:00 am advisory. We need something new!!!


Fixed, sorry!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
1762. Grothar
WTNT42 KNHC 271449
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS. BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.

THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF. AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting thelmores:


Not used to drawing squiggly lines until August! LOL


:) I hear ya, hopefully you won't get too many opportunities to draw those squiggly lines this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Starting to get the first bit of rain from Beryl in Hilton Head, SC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
If in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.


We've pulled in the patio furniture and potted plants. We're getting decent winds and rain bands now. Looks like we're going to be just on the north side of the eye at landfall, so hope it doesn't get any worse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1758. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39048
1757. yqt1001
Quoting BahaHurican:
Mostly off topic, but imagine this hurricane season....

Axeman
Busboy
Contractor
Dancer
Entymologist
Fisherman
Grenadier
Hunter
Iceman
Juggler
Kamikaze
Lance
Manicurist
Oboeist
Pianist
Rainman
Smith
Taxidermist
Vintner
Weatherman


Would be better if all the names were doom...

Apocalypse
Bombardment
Cavalry
Death
End
Frigate
Grenadier
Hunter
Infantry
J
Kamikaze
Lancer
Missile
O
Pirate
Raid
Soldier
Tank
Viking
W

That's all I can manage in 5 minutes. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1756. Grothar
Quoting WxGeekVA:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 270831
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 30.5N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 30.4N 80.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 30.5N 81.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 28/1800Z 30.8N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/0600Z 31.2N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/0600Z 36.0N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 01/0600Z 40.0N 62.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP



That is the 5:00 am advisory. We need something new!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Still Subtropical.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 271449
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER
OF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL
MAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT
LARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.
BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.
BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND
LIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT
SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE
CYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS. BERYL IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.

THE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
MAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL
MOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE
SHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE
TAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES
TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
ECMWF. AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE
FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 30.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 30.2N 80.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL
24H 28/1200Z 30.3N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z 30.8N 82.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 29/1200Z 31.4N 82.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 31/1200Z 37.0N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 41.0N 58.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
1752. Patrap
Again, do NOT take the Storm Lightly...

Remember how K came in Aug 05 in Fla on the up-tick.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1751. divdog
60 mph 998 pressure @11:00am advisory
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1750. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES



Keep your little finger off of that F8 button and give somebody else a chance!!!!! :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurrikanEB:


According to wikipedia: "The storm briefly reached hurricane strength (though it was not a hurricane at the time because it was not tropical) before weakening."

And i guess if one were to get technical, NOAA does use the phrasing of a "tropical cyclone" in their hurricane definition. But, if a storm has 75 mph winds but isn't fully tropical, then what is the proper classification if not a hurricane? I would think that so long as it is tropical enough to be named then it it should be able to be classified as a hurricane...


A Nuetercane perhaps lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 270831
TCDAT2

SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

BERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH
THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS
IMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE
LANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE
CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE
CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO
TURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE
WESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN
AFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A
LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL
WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS
AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36
AND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH
TRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT
DAYS 4 AND 5.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
Quoting wxgeek723:
Has anyone ever thought about what it would be like if a storm was named Hunter?

...HURRICANE HUNTERS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE HURRICANE HUNTER...

Lol. Good one "HURRICANE HUNTER STALLS OUT OVER JAMAICA..." hmmm....
Member Since: June 11, 2006 Posts: 4 Comments: 445
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I mean recon is on it's way out away from Beryl.


Oh, My Bad. Should get the 11am Advisory in shortly.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1745. Grothar
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker




C
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LargoFl:
gee that must have been terrible, i hope it doesnt get that bad this time, but you never know if this thing stalls out inland huh
yeah fay was nuts........ stalll off volusia county for 30 plus hours
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Another Flight? Already?


I mean recon is on it's way out away from Beryl.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker

C
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2465
I wonder is Beryl will take advantage of the dry slot to try to create an eye...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Recon on it's way out.


Another Flight? Already?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting StormJunkie:
What's up thel! Good to see ya. No fancy graphic with colory lines to depict the cooler shelf waters? :)


Not used to drawing squiggly lines until August! LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1736. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39048
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon on it's way out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24157
1732. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Very welcome rain for Northern Florida...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker
b and possibly tropical
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What's up thel! Good to see ya. No fancy graphic with colory lines to depict the cooler shelf waters? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker


B
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
1727. K8eCane
Quoting Patrap:
In in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.


Pat thank you as usual . you are a kind man. Dont forget to post Hurricane Hercules.
I cannot believe the comments i made aboutthis storm early this am. I will have to eat those words...gulp...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker


G) 55 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1725. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1724. LargoFl
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39048
Quoting Unfriendly:
Looks like the convection is starting to pop this morning. Probably will be strengthening right up until landfall.

Any additional data about that 65kt reading?


You have to consider the COC in relative location to the Gulf Stream is partially responsible for this mornings added convection.

But before landfall, there will be an interaction with considerably cooler shelf waters....... which in the very least will make further strengthening unlikely, I even wouldn't be surprised to see a little fizzle!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone! Beryl appears to be a lot better organized this morning - it should be interesting to see what the Hurricane Hunters find!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker

B.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32250
Poll Time!!!

How strong should Beryl be for the upcoming advisory?

A) Same

B) 60mph

C) 65mph

D) 70mph

E) 75mph or More

F) Weaker
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Beryl looks pretty....


Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1718. LargoFl
Quoting Patrap:
If in the Impact area, time now to get those Preps done and be aware of whats coming.

Every storm is different, and this one is going to come in on the Up-tick seems.

Have a NOAA Alert Radio handy for info on the Tornadoes, and Squally weather.

Remind those who are elderly, and those who are shut in's, and help them as well.

Be Pro-active, to prevent being re-active during the storm.

Take care of one another.
ditto, folks plse listen to him and your local warnings
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39048
1717. Seastep
Quoting Grothar:
The season's a bust.




LOL
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Quoting Jedkins01:


Potentially, just looking at the visible it looks like its transitioning into the high level TS stage. Deeper convection is quickly beginning to consolidate around the center. Beryl is definitely getting better organized and adding more moisture to its environment. PWAT analysis shows finally higher PWAT you would expect from a fully tropical system (2.2 to 2.4 inches near the center)


Im guessing 60mph 998mb at 11am
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Beryl looks pretty....
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Mostly off topic, but imagine this hurricane season....

Axeman
Busboy
Contractor
Dancer
Entymologist
Fisherman
Grenadier
Hunter
Iceman
Juggler
Kamikaze
Lance
Manicurist
Oboeist
Pianist
Rainman
Smith
Taxidermist
Vintner
Weatherman


LOL!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3474
Looks like Beryl took a more westerly job but has quickly resumed WSW movement, I was getting concerned for a bit my forecast might have been in jeopardy :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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