Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Hi.
Is there a possibility of another tropical storm forming within the next five days? If so, the Atlantic would have three named storms before June 1.
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1831. WxLogic
Given upper level cloud pattern and latest steering maps it would currently look that Beryl might be shooting for a further S than currently estimated but not by much...



A shallower system will remain S but a stronger Beryl will remain N of the forecast track.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No, that is 120hrs, Beryl is making landfall in 48-60hrs, which is where the 1st decline is.

That would have to be well after lanfall, but the HWRF he showed kept Beryl on land, so it shouldnt intensify like that.


It restrengthens after emerging back over water:

114 hrs






126 hrs

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It doesn't, that is just prior to landfall, see #1816.


No, that is 120hrs, Beryl is making landfall in 48-60hrs, which is where the 1st decline is.

That would have to be well after lanfall, but the HWRF he showed kept Beryl on land, so it shouldnt intensify like that.
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Good Morning.
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Quoting K8eCane:


BTW wunderkid I really enjoy your enthusiasm for weather.

well I work or should I say worked but on leave at the cayman islands national weather service so I guess its from that I guess
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Beryl is in moist air except for that dry streak it is inhaling.
If it can tap into all that moisture to the east, it will become fuly rounded instead of lopsided to the west and south.:
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


How does the HWRF expect Beryl to strengthen to 50kts over land?


It doesn't, that is just prior to landfall, see #1816.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
The big picture...Anything on the horizon?


From my blog update....

"P8...A pair of tropical waves are in the tropical belt of the Atlantic...one that has entered the Caribbean from the Lesser Antilles...the other following behind hundreds of miles to the east. Both waves are suppressed by dry air mentioned at the end of paragraph P7 above. Upper easterlies (aligned with low-level easterlies) on the south side of paragraph P7's upper ridging means favorable low shear. If the western of the two tropical waves overcomes the dry air and starts to develop T-storm activity in this low shear environment...this may lead to yet another area of interest. Absolutely no signs of that at this time."

Otherwise...there's nothing else I can think of that could be on the horizon...
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Good morning my friends,

Looks like Beryl may finally be the rain maker that North Florida, Georgia and South Carolina needs!

A nice gentle TS will refill some lakes and canals and lift the water tables in those areas.

Hope it brings rain and does not end up a dry storm.

Thanks for all the maps and info. I guess Dr Jeff will put up a new update soon.

enjoy your day.
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From ATCF, change only to position; winds and pressure remain the same:

AL, 02, 2012052612, , BEST, 0, 319N, 760W, 40, 1001, SS, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 1016, 180, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M,

Meanwhile in the EPAC, Bud is now but a TD:

EP, 02, 2012052612, , BEST, 0, 205N, 1058W, 25, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:






How does the HWRF expect Beryl to strengthen to 50kts over land?
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I put out one of my detailed tropical updates last night (1:21 AM) for the Atlantic.

Track-wise the NHC forecast has been dead on so far (and I still am a bit off with some N bias). Intensity-wise...Beryl if doing what I expected so far....

I'm off for fishing...will do another update tonight when I return....and I hope Beryl hasn't pulled any surprises by then. P.S....I am fishing here in Michigan...so I don't have to worry about Beryl impacts way up here....
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Pressure steadily rising at Bouy 41002 as Beryl departs, Winds were quite gusty, up to 31kts over night, and are now starting to calm.
Not many other buoys till Beryl nears the coast.
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06Z cyclone specific models a little stronger:









Link
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 MAY 2012 Time : 104500 UTC
Lat : 32:13:22 N Lon : 75:45:08 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1005.7mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 1.5 1.5

Center Temp : 14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -0.6C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1018mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.5 degrees

************************************************* ***

I believe this result is because they are assuming Beryl is tropical. Is this true?
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 251445
IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR
THE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE

BEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER
LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK
OVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.



WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1800Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 26/1515Z C. 27/0915Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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1813. K8eCane
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok

ok make sense


BTW wunderkid I really enjoy your enthusiasm for weather.
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The big picture...Anything on the horizon?

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Defiantly fully tropical.


ok
Quoting K8eCane:


i donbt know that it makes much difference if the wind speeds are gonna do that whether its tropical, subtropical, atropical,untropical or detropical. My homeowners insurance just gives a huge deductible for "wind damage"

ok make sense
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1810. K8eCane
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes but you need to ask your self Sub tropical or extra tropical at the end when it reemerges


i donbt know that it makes much difference if the wind speeds are gonna do that whether its tropical, subtropical, atropical,untropical or detropical. My homeowners insurance just gives a huge deductible for "wind damage"
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yes but you need to ask your self Sub tropical or extra tropical at the end when it reemerges


Defiantly fully tropical.

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
You can see the trend once in reemerges into the Atlantic:


yes but you need to ask your self Sub tropical or extra tropical at the end when it reemerges
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You can see the trend once in reemerges into the Atlantic:

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Quoting AussieStorm:

I've had a few to many drinks and on flu medication. not a good combo for brain function.

its alright all of us do that sometimes
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BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

...BERYL MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF BERYL
WILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA
ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH
CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS
ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well it probably because you put in goggle.com.au and not google.com.au
lol

I've had a few to many drinks and on flu medication. not a good combo for brain function.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Last year there was a similar "initiator" (weak TROF/LOW) in the NW Carib/FL Keys that attempted to get itself together but got pushed out to the E by the strong westerlies, but didn't see any tropical systems affecting FL prior to the raining season starting.
hopefully this system gets it started
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LinkSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012

Weather Station - KI4FIA - Daytona Beach (Ponce Inlet), FL, Daytona Beach
Elevation 12 ft
Clear
Temperature 72.2 %uFFFDF Feels Like 72.2 %uFFFDF
Wind(mph)0.0
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NAM wants take it into the NE gulf, and on the turn around, pass near Tampa, but as a weak TD
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1800. WxLogic
Quoting islander101010:
was not last yrs rainy season set off by a weak undeclared system making landfall in flagler county?


Last year there was a similar "initiator" (weak TROF/LOW) in the NW Carib/FL Keys that attempted to get itself together but got pushed out to the E by the strong westerlies, but didn't see any tropical systems affecting FL prior to the raining season starting.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I also goggled AVN retriever and checked the links, all come to dead ends.

well it probably because you put in goggle.com.au and not google.com.au
lol
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Beryl looks like Alberto
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Quoting KennyNebraska:
Cyclone Oz web cam is up and running in Jacksonville.

got a link, WUmail me it, please
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STS Beryl.

Winds@1000mb (Surface)


Winds@925mb


Winds@700mb


Winds@600mb


Winds@500mb



Click Images for full size.
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Cyclone Oz web cam is up and running in Jacksonville.
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Quoting cat7hurricane:
are you sure? I found a few links just off a simple google search. Haven't tried them yet, will in the AM

I also goggled AVN retriever and checked the links, all come to dead ends.
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1793. K8eCane
Quoting MissNadia:
Good Morning,
Skies are clear at Cape Fear. Wind is North at 25 Kts with gusts to 31... seas are in the 8 foot range with a steady glass.


Morning MissNadia
a little overcast here by the airport and a little breezy
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1792. intampa
i hope beryl "barrels" her way to central florida and provides rain for all... however i think we in tampa will be once again in the "dry slot" as they say. rainy season , rainy season where for art thou rainy season?
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Good Morning,
Skies are clear at Cape Fear. Wind is North at 25 Kts with gusts to 31... seas are in the 8 foot range with a steady glass.
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1789. K8eCane
i may have been looking at a different sat pic because the one that Seafarer just posted looks like there are some good cold cloudtops there
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Quoting WxLogic:
Got 60% to 80% change of Rain on my area in CFL... I sure hope is able to send/pull some moisture here before it heads out. Quite dry in my area. Praying... :)
was not last yrs rainy season set off by a weak undeclared system making landfall in flagler county?
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1787. WxLogic
Still quite a bit of dry air out there... but we'll see if the Gulf Stream is able to provide that temporary burst in moisture:

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1786. K8eCane
Quoting WxLogic:
Got 60% to 80% change of Rain on my area in CFL... I sure hope is able to send/pull some moisture here before it heads out. Quite dry in my area. Praying... :)


Im praying too WX
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1785. WxLogic
Got 60% to 80% change of Rain on my area in CFL... I sure hope is able to send/pull some moisture here before it heads out. Quite dry in my area. Praying... :)
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1784. K8eCane
I had thought Beryl would have a little more moisture this morning though. Hopefully she will pick some up on her way down, maybe once she kicks off some of the sub tropical charectarisrtics
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1782. K8eCane
Good Morning!! Please let it bring some rain to Fla. They sound like they really need it
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.