Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Afternoon All. Low shear coming in from the west.



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Pretty much every 12z model has shifted north of Florida except the NAM. Let's see what the 12Z Euro does at 2 PM.
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The lowest pressures are just north of the 30th parallel. So I think that COC will win out there against the other one just northeast of Grand Bahama.
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12Z GFS has shifted south some with 94L. Now has this aimed at C FL.
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We have recon tomorrow!

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1800Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 26/1515Z C. 27/0915Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIV E.
JWP
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Excellent link Mike.V..Thank you for it.
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.
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/tbw/TopNews/PDF/Nort hPortTornado24may2012.pdf
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Quoting hydrus:
Bud never had that truck tire look that almost all annular hurricanes have..I do not usually question the experts, but something looked amiss as far as appearance is concerned. In an annular hurricane, nearly 100% of the energy transfer from sea surface to atmosphere occurs in the single ring around the eye. Isabel had an awesome pinwheel eye.">

Action:
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| Ignore User


Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 10977






The "tire" look in the eyes of intense hurricanes are from radially outward propagating vortex Rossby waves.
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NWS observer program if anyone is interested.....................Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate #Invest94 tomorrow afternoon


NOUS42 KNHC 251445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 26/1800Z A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 26/1515Z C. 27/0915Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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Once that ridge bends 94L, it should be able to develop.
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Hydrus that last post screwed up the blog.
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Quoting Brock31:
Is the shear 94L has been enduring still forecast to relax sometime tomorrow?


Per CIMSS the 24 hour sheer tendency is dropping....

Link
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Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate #Invest94 tomorrow afternoon
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<
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Quoting Jstn568:
Link

Looking at the last few frames in the loop, it appears that a low is starting to close right around 75.5W/29.5N. Still rather elongated, but definitely slowing its Eastward motion. Interesting.


Yup the eastward motion has come to a crawl. NHC had this at 31N at 8am but it's obvious the center is around 28 or 27N.
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Is the shear 94L has been enduring still forecast to relax sometime tomorrow?
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UPDATED!!!!
94L Elongated closed low.

Winds@1000mb (Surface)


Winds@925mb


Winds@700mb


Winds@200mb


Click Images for full size.
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94L in the Atlantic a threat to become a historic 2nd named storm in May - 5/25/12
BLOG UPDATE!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24022
Quoting reedzone:


This will break a record..

2 storms before June 1st since 1887

Look where that ridge is in the Atlantic, it needs to move or else we have major problems come August, September.


I think Doc said yesterday that 1908 had 2 storms before June 1st as one formed in March. Folks 1908 had 2 storms before June 1st

March 6th

May 24th


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Quoting txjac:
Dangit!!!! You guys are addicting!!! I'm sitting here at work ...reading the blog ...and NOT working!!!

lol ...thank goodness its a holiday weekend and no one is really paying attention!
LOL..sure is going to be an interesting few days here on this blog alright
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Quoting Skyepony:
Another weird thing about last night's Bud discussion #17 where he was called annular is that a TRMM pass for 5/24 is made reference to passing the eye. I thought maybe it hadn't been released yet. Now we have data for one on the 25th that doesn't cover the center. Nothing before that since 5/22. Click pic to animate.


NRL Monterey has the 2229 pass
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Dangit!!!! You guys are addicting!!! I'm sitting here at work ...reading the blog ...and NOT working!!!

lol ...thank goodness its a holiday weekend and no one is really paying attention!
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what happens if that blocking ridge to the north of 94 never materializes?..does it just keep going NE or does it come ashore further up the coast say new england?
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Link

Looking at the last few frames in the loop, it appears that a low is starting to close right around 75.5W/29.5N. Still rather elongated, but definitely slowing its Eastward motion. Interesting.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It should really organize late tonight as it interacts and becomes stacked with the upper level low.

Expect Tropical Storm Beryl tomorrow morning.


Yeah I agree and there maybe a nice shift south on the models as this appears to be the center forming due east of Cape Canaveral by about 300 miles. It also doesn't appear to be to the NE that much anymore either.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It should really organize late tonight as it interacts and becomes stacked with the upper level low.

Expect Tropical Storm Beryl tomorrow morning.


This will break a record..

2 storms before June 1st since 1887

Look where that ridge is in the Atlantic, it needs to move or else we have major problems come August, September.
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Models continue to deepen this low with a negative tilt, and could create bad weather far to the south for this time of year....
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Center is looking better with each passing frame now so I would expect the percentages to go up to 80 or 90% by 2pm.


It should really organize late tonight as it interacts and becomes stacked with the upper level low.

Expect Tropical Storm Beryl tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
Cyclone Oz has posted that he is going to Jacksonville. He says he is going to be in a flood zone area for this storm.

I think it would be interesting if he can broadcast a flash flood in progress.
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Center is looking better with each passing frame now so I would expect the percentages to go up to 80 or 90% by 2pm.

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ASCAT says not closed yet

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42. Skyepony (Mod)
Another weird thing about last night's Bud discussion #17 where he was called annular is that a TRMM pass for 5/24 is made reference to passing the eye. I thought maybe it hadn't been released yet. Now we have data for one on the 25th that doesn't cover the center. Nothing before that since 5/22. Click pic to animate.
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Now if the center shifts we should see a shift from the models as well right, saying they don't have the low in the right location?
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The Caribbean is pretty much open for business right now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32056
At this time, it appears very possible that 94L will develop into Sub-Tropical or Tropical Storm Beryl. Model support is unanimous and consistent from the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, UKMET, and NOGAPS. I will be writing up a blog shortly.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24022
Hurricane Bud
Winds@1000mb (Surface)


Winds@925mb


Winds@700mb
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT FRI 25 MAY 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z MAY 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-007

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
C. 26/1515Z
D. 33.0N 77.0W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

A. 27/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 27/0915Z
D. 30.8N 79.5W
E. 27/1130Z TO 27/1630Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 28/0000Z FIX
NEAR 30.8N 81.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
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700

WHXX04 KWBC 251132

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L



INITIAL TIME 6Z MAY 25



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 28.3 78.4 30./17.1

6 28.6 77.9 54./ 4.8

12 29.1 77.0 59./ 9.7

18 29.3 76.5 72./ 5.0

24 29.6 76.1 54./ 4.3

30 30.5 76.0 5./ 8.6

36 30.9 76.7 303./ 6.7

42 30.9 78.2 273./13.4

48 30.9 79.4 270./10.3

54 31.1 80.6 280./10.3

60 31.2 82.4 273./15.7

66 31.5 83.9 281./13.0

72 31.6 85.6 272./14.7



STORM DISSIPATED AT 72 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
AMSU pass



That's where I'm seeing it on the visible. The NHC pegged the position way to far to the north on the 8am update so expect these models to drop south by the 2pm update.
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Some severe weather next week .. Invest 94l in 24 hours...In 48 hours....In 84 hours..NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 25 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)
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251

WHXX01 KWBC 251308

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1308 UTC FRI MAY 25 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120525 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120525 1200 120526 0000 120526 1200 120527 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 31.4N 76.3W 31.7N 76.3W 31.1N 77.2W 30.4N 78.6W

BAMD 31.4N 76.3W 33.3N 74.4W 33.8N 74.1W 33.8N 75.2W

BAMM 31.4N 76.3W 32.1N 75.9W 31.6N 76.7W 31.0N 78.2W

LBAR 31.4N 76.3W 32.9N 75.0W 33.6N 73.5W 33.8N 72.7W

SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS 35KTS

DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120527 1200 120528 1200 120529 1200 120530 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 30.0N 80.3W 30.9N 82.9W 32.2N 83.2W 32.4N 81.0W

BAMD 34.1N 77.2W 34.3N 80.9W 34.8N 81.4W 37.3N 75.8W

BAMM 30.5N 80.1W 30.2N 83.1W 30.0N 83.7W 29.3N 81.9W

LBAR 33.2N 72.1W 31.3N 70.7W 29.1N 69.2W 27.7N 66.4W

SHIP 34KTS 23KTS 16KTS 18KTS

DSHP 34KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 31.4N LONCUR = 76.3W DIRCUR = 25DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 26.5N LONM12 = 78.7W DIRM12 = 30DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 23.8N LONM24 = 81.3W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 140NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
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If 94 keeps moving NE at 10-15 mph wont it soon be too far away to come all the way back to NE Florida? Wesure could use a good rain maker here.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.