Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Quoting MrstormX:


Hopefully nowhere, his smugness is a magnet for storms. (Yes he is smug, and that is not a personal attack...merely an observation.)


lol +1
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting ncstorm:
18z

Statistical



Dynamic


Dynamic models in fairly reasonable agreement. Statistical models, er, less so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wonder if Presslord took his boat back out after last week's weather issues and getting ready to look for safe harbor again...........Twice in the last 5-6 days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Key is going to be how strong that high is and if it's WSW or SW. If it dives SW right out of the gate, it could go even further south, IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


94L/Pre-Beryl(Counting the trough portion extending through the Bahamas) now has more size then the entire state of Florida...
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting weatherbro:


Incorect. Most models take it into Goargia then up to the Carolinas by tuesday


Because of the incorrect position of invest 94L at 8am. All the Global models take this right into ST. Augustine/Palm Coast area as a strong tropical storm. I wouldn't even rule out that this tries to make a run at hurricane strength.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
If this storm is large and possible a stronger TS, i wonder where its rains will extend to and if we could see some storms from the bands into N GA.

Several models takeit into central and south GA, but the ECMWF is insistent on taking the storm out of Florida and back toward NC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


Thought it was nearly stationary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18z

Statistical



Dynamic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Damm! It is 96 here in N C FL.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Anyone wanna Guess where Jim Cantore will show up?

I'm Betting on Jacksonville,FL


Hopefully nowhere, his smugness is a magnet for storms. (Yes he is smug, and that is not a personal attack...merely an observation.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TXCWC:
Both 12Z GFS and EURO say landfall just south of Jacksonville, Fl. NE Florida looks to be a very good bet right now, despite what track models said earlier this morning.


Most models take it into Georgia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buoy at ~75W, 32N.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
You guys are quick...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


HWRF is quite far north compared to the other "best" models, closer to the other "unreliables".
I dont know about these model upgrades....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm heading to Cape Cod for the next couple days and won't have any access to computers so unfortunately I'll be missing most of this storm, but I think the most likely scenario is that 94L will develop sometime tomorrow morning probably being named Beryl right away, strenghten into around a 60mph storm, and make landfall around Jacksonville near peak intensity.
If it struggles with all that dry air to its west then it may only make 45 or 50mph, but at the most I could see a 70-75 mph storm, so I think going in between those two options for around 60mph is the best bet.

Have a great weekend!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Anyone wanna Guess where Jim Cantore will show up?

I'm Betting on Jacksonville,FL


savannah, right front quadrant...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Up to 80%!

.


I called it!

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
NHC is going to have to move their circle north and i think they will go to 80% when they do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
80% on 94L. Looks like we're going to get Beryl out of this system sometime tomorrow evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone wanna Guess where Jim Cantore will show up?

I'm Betting on Jacksonville,FL
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 251856
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW...OR EARLIER IF
NECESSARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Gotta go. Later guys!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Up to 80%!

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...IS PRODUCING WINDS TO GALE FORCE
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
SATURDAY OR SUNDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TOMORROW...OR EARLIER IF
NECESSARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
About an hour old

48hrs.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
could be nasty for kentucky to the mid atlantic if that GFS trough verifies. Combine this with 1500-2500j/kg capes.
I am surprised by the consistency:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The northwest quadrant should light up later tonight, as the moisture shield is getting wrapped around on that side. You can tell by the field of cumulus and new thunderstorms developing in North Carolina which extends a bit inland. Once the upper winds lighten, convection will likely start developing within the moist area northwest of the low, starting the process of wrapping convection around the center.

Zoomed Visible Loop
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


but that model track run has been consistent for about 5 runs now maybe more..and its the Euro..the only thing that has been changing is the pressure and it keeps lowering it when it heads back to us..




Reaches for xanax second time in 24 hours...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:



NC dont forget that particular model is 6 days out yet


but that model track run has been consistent for about 5 runs now maybe more..and its the Euro..the only thing that has been changing is the pressure and it keeps lowering it when it heads back to us..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, right here:



It's already almost up to the old 12z coordinates of the northern low, which is becoming less defined by the hour. They may be indistinguishable soon.



Thanks, been in and out all day. I didn't even realize a second location, I've only been looking at that one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

What about that 984mb low cutting through the US... That would be interesting.


Nasty tornado outbreak possibly if that where to verify.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Nice 1008mb low in the Yucatan Straight by 192 hours (June 1st). Not indicative of tropical cyclone development yet, but something to keep an eye on as pressures might be lowering in the Caribbean for true tropical development.

What about that 984mb low cutting through the US... That would be interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
East coast event.?


i see phasing jet streams.
No good comes of that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Lines Beaucoup


Quelle surprise!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I guess 55 kts for peak intensity and 50 kts at landfall. And 989 mb deepest pressure and 992 mb at landfall.

Have a great weekend.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nice 1008mb low in the Yucatan Straight by 192 hours (June 1st). Not indicative of tropical cyclone development yet, but something to keep an eye on as pressures might be lowering in the Caribbean for true tropical development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



When you say southern center are you referring to the one at 31N 75W or thereabouts?


Yes, right here:



It's already almost up to the old 12z coordinates of the northern low, which is becoming less defined by the hour. They may be indistinguishable soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:


It's a hurricane on its last legs, ir can be deceptive there are still some strong winds in there. Thankfully diminished amounts of rain as well.

Yeah Mexico dodged a bullet... And you're probably right, there's probably still some hurricane winds at the center as it takes these big hurricanes a while to spin down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This is not a hurricane:



It's a hurricane on its last legs, ir can be deceptive there are still some strong winds in there. Thankfully diminished amounts of rain as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:
As a NC'ian..this aint going to be pretty..it rides back up the coast and getting stronger..




NC dont forget that particular model is 6 days out yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Pat,it would help if we had some lines on this to look at!


Lines Beaucoup
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127804
Quoting swampdawg:


Being I live right in the SE corner of Georgia, this is really gonna be interesting to watch. Thanx Levi, you always put everything in total perspective...


Just a Curious question, Since i dont live or visit that area often.

When was the last time you were Directly affected by a Tropical System?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting ncstorm:
As a NC'ian..this aint going to be pretty..it rides back up the coast and getting stronger..



Should be interesting after it makes its first landfall, it looks like its forecast to get stronger before it heads up towards us.

I'm in ILM.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



Sounds like a good summation to me. I think the good things I heard about you are correct.


Now how deep and how strong the winds (best guess) :)



As I discussed in my blog entry this morning, I believe this should develop and attain around 60mph winds, a moderate tropical storm, technically the same peak as Alberto, but in reality stronger because it is a larger system, will remain stronger for longer, and has more moisture associated with it. Alberto was a flash in the pan and very small. This should be a more potent system than Alberto due to more moisture available, a well-defined pre-existing low-level center, and a track that will take it over the warmest SSTs of the southwest Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:
One thing that kills me about possible preseason development is the lack of a regularly issued Tropical Weather Outlook. I would love to get a look inside of the NHC's head right now and see if anything has changed since the last TWO, which was almost 12 hours ago.

Of course, they may have not updated it because nothing has changed yet and they don't need to... but I'm impatient. :P

They should have a new STWO out soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ecflweatherfan:
The models have this as a slow-moving system... IF it comes ashore (as nothing is etched in stone at this point), there are going to be some huge rainfall totals. I know anything north of Lake Okeechobee into GA/SC can REALLY use the rain.
I said on Levi32,s blog, if a system this size manages 60 mph sustained winds and is a slow mover, there may be serious beach erosion, tidal flooding and isolated tornadoes. It could get nasty over a large area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
The southern center, the one that is of tropical origin, is moving rapidly northward and is clearly becoming dominant, beginning to absorb the baroclinic wave which formed the 2nd center earlier this morning. This makes sense given that the southern center is closest to the low-level convergence zone, and is moving under and increasingly diffluent flow aloft as it moves northward.



Find GIF loops here



When you say southern center are you referring to the one at 31N 75W or thereabouts?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just say 995 mb on the ECMWF second pass by NC, that would probably be near 990 at the very center.
A moderate TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is not a hurricane:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 382 - 332

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
64 °F
Scattered Clouds