Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Pressure seems about 5 -10 mb lower from surface observations than what the models show it as, which is not good for NC if the Euro wants this go down into the 995mb range ..

bouy has 1008.8 mb, models initiate 1012-1016mb
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the stronger it gets the more north it will end up correct?
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I think by 5 we will have a sts beryl,
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The Wilmington, NC NWS here is giving us a 30% chance of scattered showers tomorrow and a 50% chance of scattered showers Sunday.

Conservative much?


"Its all about money..dollar dollar bills.."
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427. 7544
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Key is going to be how strong that high is and if it's WSW or SW. If it dives SW right out of the gate, it could go even further south, IMO.


agree itg may just wind up back down south as far as orlando or even west palm wait watch and see on thisone could fool everyone imo
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The Wilmington, NC NWS here is giving us a 30% chance of scattered showers tomorrow and a 50% chance of scattered showers Sunday.

Conservative much?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting Levi32:
Visible loop reveals a well-defined northwest and westerly flow developing on the back side of 94L, indicating a strengthening circulation.


Consistent with this buoy closer to Charleston (41 NM Southeast) showing winds coming in from the North at the moment and pressures falling:

Station 41004
NDBC
Location: 32.501N 79.099W
Date: Fri, 25 May 2012 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: N (350°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.05 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.7 F
Dew Point: 70.5 F
Water Temperature: 79.0 F

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9413
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



I was making a statement, sorry Gro. I noticed earlier it hadn't moved much and said it was stationary, NHC confirmed that. Glad to be back in the sweltering heat today?


I'm always glad to be back PP. It's actually a nice day here. It just takes me a few days to adjust to the time change.
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Quoting Levi32:
Visible loop reveals a well-defined northwest and westerly flow developing on the back side of 94L, indicating a strengthening circulation.


Bouy confirms that.

Should be very close to the center, just a hair N and E of it maybe. 35mph sustained, gusting to over 40mph. Sat imagery still seems to be showing a slow drift to the NNW.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

I'm not so convinced that 94L will strengthen much either. Even with relaxing shear, there is still a sea of dry air it has to contend with. It has the opportunity to moisten up its environment around it, but I'm not so sure its going to be able to do it.



Once the large ridge to 94L's west begins to break down and move north, it will help eliminate the subsidence somewhat on 94L's western flank. It will probably have to deal with dry air most of its life to some degree, but I think it will be able to mix some of it out once the ridge begins to move and break down. That will probably be when "Berryl" reaches peak intensity.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Jacksonville westward can really use that rain..................URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
248 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND DUE TO POSSIBLE LOW HUMIDITIES AND ERC OF
35 OR GREATER...

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA DUE TO POSSIBLE LOW
HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR
GREATER PLUS A KBDI OF 500 OR GREATER...

.ERC VALUES OF 35 OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...HUMIDITIES MAY DROP TO BELOW 35
PERCENT THERE...BUT CRITICAL DURATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SO NO
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED...HOWEVER THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED IN
CASE ONE IS NEEDED LATER TODAY.

ON SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE LOCAL
REGION. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND LONGER
DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITIES. ERC IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AND DISPERSIONS MAY APPROACH 75 ACROSS SOME OF THESE
COUNTIES. THIS WOULD GENERATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH FLORIDA NECESSITATING THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...EXPECTED LOW HUMIDITIES COMBINED WITH 20 FOOT
WINDS OF AT LEAST 10 MPH PLUS ALREADY HIGH KBDI WILL ALSO LEAD TO
THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH.

FLZ007>010-012-017-027-108-112-127-251830-
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0029.120526T1800Z-120526T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-INLAND BAY-LEON-
INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL WAKULLA-
248 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 /148 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

* WIND...NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.

* HUMIDITY...28 TO 34 PERCENT.

* ERC...35 TO 40

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

&&

$$
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420. Gorty
Off topic but I really wanna know. If it is gonna be a cool June for me, does that mean my thunderstorm chances will be lower?
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
TVCN = NHC




SHIP, DSHP, LGEM = NHC Preliminary


Just check SHIPS Text and note "FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI"
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Quoting Levi32:
Visible loop reveals a well-defined northwest and westerly flow developing on the back side of 94L, indicating a strengthening circulation.


As you said the northern low s starting to dance around and into the main low
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Quoting ncstorm:
12z UKMET


agrees on reemergence into Atlantic, just takes more time.

RAP model gives it quite a large windfield with gusty winds at the carolina coast in 15-18 hrs.
30-35kts
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No thoughts on intensity?


I could definitely see moderate strength TS. The dry air to the west and marginal SSTs keep me skeptical about high end TS. However, if shear is low enough and isn't able to penetrate the center too much (causing dry air to be entrained as well) then I could see a 65-70mph TS before all is said and done.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Flooding in the midwest................FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

MOC037-260400-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FA.W.0004.120525T1609Z-120526T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CASS MO-
1109 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL CASS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FRIDAY

* AT 1100 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED EAST OF
THE WARNED AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WERE
COMMON ACROSS THE HEADWATERS OF BIG CREEK FROM STORMS EARLIER THIS
MORNING.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL CASS COUNTY...ALONG BIG CREEK. EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO
BEGIN RISING BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
PLEASANT HILL.

&&

LAT...LON 3864 9413 3872 9426 3877 9431 3877 9413

$$

SAW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Visible loop reveals a well-defined northwest and westerly flow developing on the back side of 94L, indicating a strengthening circulation.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Grothar:


It is, it won't really start moving much until tomorrow.



I was making a statement, sorry Gro. I noticed earlier it hadn't moved much and said it was stationary, NHC confirmed that. Glad to be back in the sweltering heat today?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting Levi32:
Intensity models still not convinced that 94L will strengthen:


I'm not so convinced that 94L will strengthen much either. Even with relaxing shear, there is still a sea of dry air it has to contend with. It has the opportunity to moisten up its environment around it, but I'm not so sure its going to be able to do it.

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Quoting weatherh98:


Stronger vorticities than dan, oops i mean Bud:)


ITs doing all of this with 50-60 knot windshear




convergence and divergence are decent






And the shear looks to start dropping




Imagine when wind shear drops to 10-20 kts....

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 120525000000
2012052500
26.5 281.4
33.5 285.0
100
26.5 281.4
250200
1205250200
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 250200
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.5N 78.6W TO 33.5N 75.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN
THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE LOW HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED HOWEVER THE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING OVER THIS AREA HAVE REMAINED
DISORGANIZED DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE HIGH WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
CURRENTLY INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE TO ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 80 TO 82 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 260200Z.//
9412052200 180N 860W 20
9412052206 180N 854W 20
9412052212 181N 849W 20
9412052218 185N 845W 25
9412052300 190N 841W 25
9412052306 196N 839W 25
9412052312 201N 835W 25
9412052318 206N 830W 25
9412052400 214N 824W 30
9412052406 227N 817W 25
9412052412 238N 813W 25
9412052418 251N 801W 35
9412052500 265N 786W 35

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Impressive system on visible. It won't be long until we have a TS out of this.



The eventual track is going to depend on how fast/slow the ridge to the west (and eventually to the north) moves. Here in MS, we are the recipients of some very hot weather due to the 500mb ridge centered over us. It is this ridge that will play the role of steering eventual Berryl. Of course, an incoming trough will also play a role. It's speed and strength will ultimately determine how fast the ridge breaks down and moves away to allow Berryl to reverse her course.

Current 500mb Setup




Dont have to tell me its 91 qalready
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from accuweather:

never mind didnt work.
it says developing saturday afternoon in a swath of lower windshear.
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Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting MississippiWx:
Impressive system on visible. It won't be long until we have a TS out of this.



The eventual track is going to depend on how fast/slow the ridge to the west (and eventually to the north) moves. Here in MS, we are the recipients of some very hot weather due to the 500mb ridge centered over us. It is this ridge that will play the role of steering eventual Berryl. Of course, an incoming trough will also play a role. It's speed and strength will ultimately determine how fast the ridge breaks down and moves away to allow Berryl to reverse her course.

Current 500mb Setup



No thoughts on intensity?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
How do sharp turns affect tropical cyclone vorticity and rotation?

Which turn should be best for Beryl?


I dont know about the turn back to florida but as the Euro depicts of the storm riding up the east coast..the curve from GA to NC actually increases intensity in a storm..
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm! It is 96 here in N C FL.
geez just walked the dogs, its sweltering alright, august temps in May
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Stronger vorticities than dan, oops i mean Bud:)


ITs doing all of this with 50-60 knot windshear




convergence and divergence are decent






And the shear looks to start dropping


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12z UKMET
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TVCN = NHC


Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
94L just keeps looking better and better with each refresh of the page. I wonder how strong it can get?
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Quoting weatherbro:


Not even central florida since it'll be in the dry slot.


??

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Impressive system on visible. It won't be long until we have a TS out of this.



The eventual track is going to depend on how fast/slow the ridge to the west (and eventually to the north) moves. Here in MS, we are the recipients of some very hot weather due to the 500mb ridge centered over us. It is this ridge that will play the role of steering eventual Berryl. Of course, an incoming trough will also play a role. It's speed and strength will ultimately determine how fast the ridge breaks down and moves away to allow Berryl to reverse her course.

Current 500mb Setup


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Quoting Levi32:
Intensity models still not convinced that 94L will strengthen:


I wonder why.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32855
Quoting weaverwxman:
I will be in Dayrona for the weekend might be interesting..Happy Memorial day weekend to you all DONT FORGET OUR TROOPS god bless
have a great time there and keep an eye on the weather..enjoy
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How do sharp turns affect tropical cyclone vorticity and rotation?

Which turn should be best for Beryl?
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


North and Central Florida...

South Florida.. not so much.


Not even central florida since it'll be in the dry slot.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


Thought it was nearly stationary.


If you can see this post in a flurry of others, I'd like to state that you are correct.

And that not much more northerly movement is expected, it will now stay stationary, untill the high moves into positon.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


94L/Pre-Beryl(Counting the trough portion extending through the Bahamas) now has more size then the entire state of Florida...
but it does not look impressive, so far just a rain maker.....................
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I will be in Dayrona for the weekend might be interesting..Happy Memorial day weekend to you all DONT FORGET OUR TROOPS god bless
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Intensity models still not convinced that 94L will strengthen:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT A
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


Thought it was nearly stationary.


It is, it won't really start moving much until tomorrow.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm! It is 96 here in N C FL.


Its 75 were I live in the UK, and I feel like I'm melting.
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**GRAPHICS UPDATE**
(click to enlarge; graphics can further be enlarged in Link window)


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Quoting ncstorm:
18z

Statistical



Dynamic


one of those statistical models has the remanant low practically getting to my house.

The Dynamicals are all in agreement though, and they are more accurate.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If this storm is large and possible a stronger TS, i wonder where its rains will extend to and if we could see some storms from the bands into N GA.

Several models takeit into central and south GA, but the ECMWF is insistent on taking the storm out of Florida and back toward NC


This is a large system so a large area will be affect by this. Again this could make a run a minimal hurricane strength. JMO however!

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
If this storm is large and possible a stronger TS, i wonder where its rains will extend to and if we could see some storms from the bands into N GA.

Several models takeit into central and south GA, but the ECMWF is insistent on taking the storm out of Florida and back toward NC


the Euro is sorta the outlier..I dont think I've ever seen it be in that case..
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Quoting MrstormX:


Hopefully nowhere, his smugness is a magnet for storms. (Yes he is smug, and that is not a personal attack...merely an observation.)


lol +1
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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