Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1032. cg2916
12:52 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Get ready for one wide cone of uncertainty.


Can't be worse than Bud's.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1031. Stormchaser2007
12:52 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting Skyepony:
.



Yeah must apologize~ I have totally trolled this storm every six years;)


No need to. Very well played and made me actually laugh.

I remember the OG-Bud from 2006. Didn't form until July.

Been here many-a-day.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
1030. cg2916
12:52 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
The blog is...OVER 9000!!!!!!!!.


What is the record on here for the most comments?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1029. weatherh98
12:52 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
I betcha they are trying to figure out wether it should be subtropical or tropical
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
1028. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:52 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
That ASCAT pass will push them over the edge.

Some crazy high RC reading in the convection.

What's RC?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31550
1027. Patrap
12:51 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Three Crow Recipes



AL942012 - INVEST

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1026. Skyepony (Mod)
12:50 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
The Windsat looks a bit elongated. North side of the version I posted looks a little troughy on the N end. It's very close.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
1025. KennyNebraska
12:50 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Oz just posted this on FB. He is listed as Cyclone Oz on FB.

94L UPDATE: I am in position to intercept this storm.

And now I have some hard work ahead of me as I set up for a marathon broadcast that will cover the entire history of this storm prior to and during its landfall and subsequent aftermath. WE ARE FULL ON THIS STORM. If you are extreme like Doug and I, you will not want to miss our broadcast. Expect a brief transmission sometime tomorrow, and when the storm is 18 - 12 hours from landfall, we will go non-stop until some time perhaps a day or two later.

Events will be listed on our Ustream.TV channel (xtremehurricanes,) but CrazyMother.TV will be the place to be, especially if you want to hear the pure sound of a landfalling tropical cyclone.

I will be seeing you soon, live from somewhere within the Cone of Doom!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 474
1024. washingtonian115
12:50 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
The blog is...OVER 9000!!!!!!!!.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16439
1023. GTcooliebai
12:49 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Woot. Seems we'll be having Beryl at 11pm.
Get ready for one wide cone of uncertainty.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1022. Stormchaser2007
12:49 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
That ASCAT pass will push them over the edge.

Some crazy high RC reading in the convection.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
1021. cg2916
12:48 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Up to 5 comments a minute. The blog has kicked into 2nd gear!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1020. cg2916
12:47 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


You managed to get that as the 1000th post! Nice job.


Perfection!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1019. cg2916
12:47 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


Convection cutting into the dry air.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1018. Skyepony (Mod)
12:47 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
PUERTO VALLARTA, Mexico %u2014 Bud weakened to a tropical storm Friday as it headed toward a string of laid-back beach resorts and small mountain villages on Mexico's Pacific coast south of Puerto Vallarta. Two people, one of them from France, were reported missing in a separate storm in Cuba.

94L has probably killed already...

& no real surprise Bud went for the laid back resorts..

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


This.


Yeah must apologize~ I have totally trolled this storm every six years;)
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
1017. WeatherNerdPR
12:47 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Woot. Seems we'll be having Beryl at 11pm.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5633
1016. cg2916
12:46 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Fresh scat:



Looks closed, but can't tell on the NE end.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1015. cg2916
12:46 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
ok where is the crow? lol


Come on, Taz!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1014. NICycloneChaser
12:46 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


You managed to get that as the 1000th post! Nice job.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
1013. cg2916
12:45 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting CybrTeddy:
100% on 94L. Advisories initiated later tonight.

There you go folks.


Heck of a start to 2012.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1012. LargoFl
12:45 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
well congrats folks, we did it, over 1000 posts in one day,Beryl..thank you for making this one interesting day,well have a great night everyone...and have a Safe Holiday weekend ok
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
1011. BrickellBreeze
12:45 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Owners of hotels, restaurants, marinas and such from Hatteras to Daytona, plus the owners of that Disney place in Florida, are hoping the guests get on the road at least before this borderline call gets made. Also, the longer the NHC delays and with each model run that looks to high confidence track to Jax area the further south the watches/warnings are needed.


Looks like a Landfall around Jacksonville, Florida
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1010. MiamiHurricanes09
12:45 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Fresh scat:

Still a bit broad, but passes as a tropical cyclone with flying colors.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1009. Patrap
12:45 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1008. GTcooliebai
12:44 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA...IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
What a post for the 1000th post! Looks like Beryl by the 11 pm. advisory.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
1007. cg2916
12:44 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
That's 1000!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3035
1006. CybrTeddy
12:44 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
100% on 94L. Advisories initiated later tonight.

There you go folks.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
1005. Stormchaser2007
12:44 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Fresh scat:

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
1004. LargoFl
12:43 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA...IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
ok where is the crow? lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
1003. Patrap
12:43 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1002. LargoFl
12:43 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
1001. ProgressivePulse
12:43 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA...IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31550
T.C.F.W.
00L/INV/TS
MARK
32.47N/75.15W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As far as track, I'm on the north end of the consensus; thinking a landfall near Savannah, Georgia is the most probable at the given time. Intensity wise, the 00z SHIPS foresees that upper-level winds vanquish to around 16kts in about 12 hours, and get as low as 9kts in about 24 hours. With that being said, I do believe that 94L will make a run for hurricane status, contrary to popular belief amongst the intensity models. Probably won't achieve 65kts, but will definitely get close, as far as I'm concerned.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's okay, Taz, I can go without seeing that.




LOL i was playing with you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
1020mb pressure readings north of 94L.
High Pressure building in over it I see.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Models have updated with the majority of them taking 94L into Georgia.



Models will shift north and south.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting Tazmanian:




we can both do a snow dace of some kind a round a camp fire too pass the time i even put on a dress for you

That's okay, Taz, I can go without seeing that.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31550
1020mb pressure readings north of 94L.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


I like Falcons:




slight similarity


Who dat
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6461
Owners of hotels, restaurants, marinas and such from Hatteras to Daytona, plus the owners of that Disney place in Florida, are hoping the guests get on the road at least before this borderline call gets made. Also, the longer the NHC delays and with each model run that looks to high confidence track to Jax area the further south the watches/warnings are needed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
989. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh ASCAT
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
Two EF-3s on May 19:
May 19th Kingman & Harper County Tornadoes
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9721
Shear dwindling further.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, more so than the National Weather Service is calling for. As 94L (Beryl) moves southwest tomorrow, we should get in on the heavy rainfall and gusty winds.


ok i have to get my neighbor to help me empty some containers in my yard then...Thank u
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37064
Quoting Skyepony:
The new TRMM of Bud is too sad to post. Kinda expected, usually you don't see sensational Mexican Bud.


This.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15790
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The wait is killing me.







we can both do a snow dace of some kind a round a camp fire too pass the time i even put on a dress for you
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.