Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1182 - 1132

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Think this will bring a tropical storm forces winds to Charleston area?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1181. cg2916


Impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Both Storms in Kansas have a confirmed Tornado
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.


I'll go 70 - 80 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trey33:


Yep when a storm hits Tampa during the RNC


Yeah...then we could blame it on BHO!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. cg2916
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Tomorrow? I thought this was third gear?
C. 75 mph


We're still getting some lulls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Russell County in central Kansas...

* until 915 PM CDT

* at 830 PM CDT... a confirmed tornado was located 5 miles south of
Gorham... and moving northeast at 20 mph.

Hazard... damaging tornado and tennis Ball size hail.

Source... weather spotters confirmed tornado.

Impact... significant house and building damage possible. Mobile
homes completely destroyed if hit. Some trees uprooted or
snapped. Vehicles will likely be thrown by tornadic winds.

* Locations impacted include...
Russell... Gorham... Bunker Hill... Dorrance... Luray... Paradise...
Lucas... Milberger... Russell Airport... Wilson Lake and Waldo.

This includes Interstate 70 between mile markers 176 and 205.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This Tornado Warning replaces the Severe Thunderstorm Warning that
was in effect for the same area.

To repeat... a tornado is on the ground. Take cover now. Move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid
windows. If in a Mobile home... a vehicle or outdoors... move to the
closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.


Lat... Lon 3912 9904 3914 9849 3881 9848 3869 9889
3869 9904 3905 9905
time... Mot... loc 0131z 238deg 17kt 3881 9902

Tornado... observed
hail... 2.50in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:
Pretty much tells you where Beryl is heading... WSW to SW:



The Models have been preaching a landfall in North Florida.

Although the land falling point is in North Florida, the Brunt of the Wind and Rain will be felt in Georgia and the Southern Portions of South Carolina.

Expect a Tropical Storm Watch from Daytona Beach,Florida to Charleston, South Carolina
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting washingtonian115:
I just hope the rest of this hurricane season is as interesting...

true, With all this pre-season activity, i think we're in for a very quiet June. May still get chris out of the month though.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting washingtonian115:
The blog may go into 3rd gear tomorrow.

Tomorrow? I thought this was third gear?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.

C. 75 mph
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1172. nigel20
Good evening all...the blog is moving at snails pace...jk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1171. cg2916


WindSat says closed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
**TROPICAL UPDATE**





Think the cone will be a bit wider??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I'm sticking to my earlier prediction of a 75 mph. cane.

That would probably be the first time to get a May hurricane in a VERY long time. And i don't see it quite happening. But you you never know.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
I just hope the rest of this hurricane season is as interesting...
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15719
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Not everyone who reads this blog is a weather geek :)


So true. Guess I'll have to do my rides on the Harley in the early part of the weekend, since Jax seems to be in some of the crosshairs.

Love reading and seeing all the stuff you guys post, however, even though half of it goes over my head (actually, being weather, I suppose all of it goes over my head!)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.


Z, Enema
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1165. Thrawst
Omg. Best sunset ever after yet ANOTHER crappy day in the Bahamas. Getting really sick n' tired of it.

SUN :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
When's the last time the Atlantic and East Pac combined for 4 storms before June 1st?

2007 was very close. There were 3 storms and a 4th low pressure system (which would become TS Barry) prior to June 1st. However, the low that became TS Barry wasn't a tropical storm until 18UTC of June 1st.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:

B. 65-70mph.

Glad to see we're all in agreement here on the blog.
65-75 mph winds is the consensus of everyone.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1162. trey33
Quoting Cayman2010:
Should see the rain start to ease up, but may remain overcast for a day or so.


thx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


Remember 90L in 2009?

oh wait! I do remember that little sucker!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.
I'm sticking to my earlier prediction of a 75 mph. cane.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


And on that note, I'm going to bed :)

Night all. Don't let 94L get you too worked up ;)

I'll fight that to the best of my abilities... ;D
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


And on that note, I'm going to bed :)

Night all. Don't let 94L get you too worked up ;)


goodnight and good idea!
this season is not wasting any time getting started
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1157. trey33
Quoting cg2916:


Can't wait for August! ;)


Yep when a storm hits Tampa during the RNC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
206

WHXX01 KWBC 260002

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0002 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120526 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120526 0000 120526 1200 120527 0000 120527 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.3N 74.9W 32.5N 75.5W 32.3N 76.9W 32.3N 79.2W

BAMD 32.3N 74.9W 33.0N 74.8W 32.9N 76.0W 32.7N 78.0W

BAMM 32.3N 74.9W 32.4N 75.2W 32.2N 76.4W 32.0N 78.5W

LBAR 32.3N 74.9W 33.4N 74.1W 33.9N 73.6W 33.9N 73.2W

SHIP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS

DSHP 40KTS 42KTS 43KTS 43KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120528 0000 120529 0000 120530 0000 120531 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 32.6N 81.6W 33.9N 84.5W 35.3N 82.3W 35.8N 77.5W

BAMD 32.6N 80.2W 32.3N 83.0W 33.0N 81.7W 36.2N 75.8W

BAMM 32.0N 80.7W 32.6N 83.3W 34.0N 81.4W 36.3N 76.0W

LBAR 33.5N 72.7W 32.0N 71.7W 30.1N 70.5W 29.1N 68.6W

SHIP 40KTS 31KTS 25KTS 28KTS

DSHP 40KTS 28KTS 27KTS 33KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 32.3N LONCUR = 74.9W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 30.0N LONM12 = 75.6W DIRM12 = 39DEG SPDM12 = 20KT

LATM24 = 26.5N LONM24 = 78.7W

WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1001MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52282
1155. cg2916
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


If they dont name it at ll this blog will go completly crazy....
wouldnt want to be around for that.


Remember 90L in 2009?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.

B. 65-70mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1153. wxhatt
Quoting floridastorm:
Wow, this blog just blossomed! Looks like Beryl is getting ready for the spotlight! Now, the big question I have is how far south will this storm go....



I think florida is out of the woods now with the current modeling.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

FYI 94L will Develop xD
and B.

It'll peak somewhere near 65-70 mph kind of like Arlene, Bret, and Cindy did Last year! xD
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting floridastorm:
Wow, this blog just blossomed! Looks like Beryl is getting ready for the spotlight! Now, the big question I have is how far south will this storm go....


Wont go South of Daytona, Wont go North of Savannah
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting trey33:


Cayman what is the forecast for tomorrow there? Have some friends down there for a wedding, so just wondering.
Should see the rain start to ease up, but may remain overcast for a day or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Because this will help prepare you for longer nights during the actual season ;)


And on that note, I'm going to bed :)

Night all. Don't let 94L get you too worked up ;)
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.

I'll agree with your intensity forecast and say in between B an C.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5521
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.


B with 70mph is mine
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The blog may go into 3rd gear tomorrow.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15719
Quoting CosmicEvents:
So, we sit and wait for an hour or so.
Think of it as the blog being in labor...we know the water's broken and we wait for the baby to be born.


If they dont name it at ll this blog will go completly crazy....
wouldnt want to be around for that.

And to TA13, couldnt you just make your test a little bit harder?
You know we all will pick B...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9453
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.

FYI 94L will Develop xD
and B.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
1143. cg2916
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Because this will help prepare you for longer nights during the actual season ;)


Can't wait for August! ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Good idea.


And the dove with the nest in the hanging plant right under the roof where the rain spills over into it flew the nest today with her youngling.
Mother's usually know best!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.



D cat 5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114068
Quoting wxhatt:



I don't think so. The southern solution is become less likely. Recent models are shifting 'North'.


Recent Models have shifted South....

Besides all the major models have the Storm either coming in North Florida or Georgia.


Post 1060

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
1139. cg2916
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.


B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
So, will it be subtropical or tropical? How strong will it get? Where will it go?

But the real question:

Why am I still awake for the sake of an invest 4000 miles away from me at 2:22 am?

Because this will help prepare you for longer nights during the actual season ;)
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
So, we sit and wait for an hour or so.
Think of it as the blog being in labor...we know the water's broken and we wait for the baby to be born.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5459
I asked this earlier, but seeing as things have changed dramatically, let's give it another go.

Q: Assuming 94L develops, what will it peak as?

A. Tropical Depression
B. Tropical Storm
C. Hurricane
D. Major Hurricane

60-65 knots (70-75 mph) is my guess.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30268
1135. Grothar
Quoting Chicklit:


Bring it on, Mom changed the 2 p.m. pool party to 4 p.m. Sunday cocktail hour.


Good idea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, this blog just blossomed! Looks like Beryl is getting ready for the spotlight! Now, the big question I have is how far south will this storm go....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1133. wxhatt
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Looks like a Landfall around Jacksonville, Florida



I don't think so. The southern solution is become less likely. Recent models are shifting 'North'.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
So, will it be subtropical or tropical? How strong will it get? Where will it go?

But the real question:

Why am I still awake for the sake of an invest 4000 miles away from me at 2:22 am?
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970

Viewing: 1182 - 1132

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.