Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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this is olny may
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Absolutely insane to have two named storms before June 1st even begins. Incredible.

Could be three in the end.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Moving west per radar, which has 73 mph velocities at 19kft

wow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Beryl cloud tops lowering ,but storm growing.
still needs to expand more to the S, but clouds seem to wrapping around from the W now.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
1278. yqt1001
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I can see it now...
mock NHC advisory


...Second Storm of the season forms off the carolina's...
Tropical Storm Beryl
45 Mph
1001 MB
NW @ 5


Will be more interesting.

I can't even write out the title of the advisory without being filled with joy and refusing to go on. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:
The ATCF might need some bug-testing. LOL

Bet the NHC knew we were monitoring and searching desperately for renumber, so they waited and caused us anxiety, and then gave it to us, and pulled it away to see what we'd do xD
Those dirty NHC members! ;D jk, theyre good at what they do.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I am seeing a definitive westward movement so, I can back up your slight.


Moving west per radar, which has 73 mph velocities at 19kft
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting washingtonian115:
Agreed.The Floridians are not happy hearing that.
Neither are the Bahamians.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Absolutely insane to have two named storms before June 1st even begins. Incredible.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
And the blog goes wild. =P
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Hey Beryl.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Lol at post 1261.
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Dunno if this is just a wobble or what, but it appears on the IR2 channel that 94L (soon to become Beryl) has halted its northward progress and appears to be moving ever so slightly westward. Am I seeing right?


I am seeing a definitive westward movement so, I can back up your slight.
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Quoting cg2916:


What does everything mean after LO, I can never figure those out.


32.3 N
74.9 W
40kt
1001mb

I think the rest has to do with either seas in each quad, or winds in each quad.
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Beryl is now the 2nd name storm of the season
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We good. We good.

AL, 02, 2012052600, , BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 120, 1012, 130, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M,

I can see it now...
mock NHC advisory


...Second Storm of the season forms off the carolina's...
Tropical Storm Beryl
45 Mph
1001 MB
NW @ 5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1266. cg2916
The ATCF might need some bug-testing. LOL
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1265. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We good. We good.

AL, 02, 2012052600, , BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 120, 1012, 130, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M,


What does everything mean after LO, I can never figure those out.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Confirm, Beryl 45 mph, pressure 1001mb.

Now we have to find out if it's tropical or sub-tropical.
AL, 02, 2012052600, , BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 120, 1012, 130, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M,
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
AL, 02, 2012052600, , BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1262. yqt1001
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
LOL @ the mass hysteria


Must agree here. :P

Oh well... BERYL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We good. We good.

AL, 02, 2012052600, , BEST, 0, 323N, 749W, 40, 1001, LO, 34, NEQ, 120, 100, 0, 120, 1012, 130, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, BERYL, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, you guys are quick, I was just there, didnt see a renumber, came her to see what was going on, saw a renumber here, went back and tada... Renumber...

I bow down to you copy/paste masters. xD


We compete, that and us WU knows when storms form 100x quicker than the general public.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Dunno if this is just a wobble or what, but it appears on the IR2 channel that 94L (soon to become Beryl) has halted its northward progress and appears to be moving ever so slightly westward. Am I seeing right?
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Alright who made fun of Beryl?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1257. cg2916
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's back.

BEGIN
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invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al022012.ren
FSTDA
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U
040
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0000
201205260151
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


What are they doing?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1256. WxLogic
There we go... making a little bit of history.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL @ the mass hysteria
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
...wtf?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting RuBRNded:

Watching him at the VA hospital in Mississippi scared poopless when his news van sank in tidal surge during Katrina was priceless. Especially when he broadcast he picked the location for its safety/location.


Staple of the tropical season. He is the tropical version of Steve Irwin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1252. hydrus
AMZ111-260830-
ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W-
506 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...GALE WARNING...
...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...N WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS.
.SAT NIGHT...N OF 29N W OF 79W...N WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING
NW TO N 25 TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...NW TO N WINDS 10
TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 15 TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 7
FT...BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SUN...N OF 29N W OF 79W...SE TO S WINDS 30 TO 40 KT.
ELSEWHERE...S WINDS 25 TO 30 KT...BECOMING SE TO S 15 TO 20 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN E SWELL N OF 29N W OF
79W...AND 6 TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.SUN NIGHT...N OF 29N W OF 79W...SE WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30
KT THEN BECOMING SE TO S 20 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO
14 FT IN SE SWELL. ELSEWHERE...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6
TO 9 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
.MON...SE TO S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT.
.WED...S TO SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. 000
ABNT20 KNHC 260042
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON
SOUTH CAROLINA...IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL
INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1251. cg2916
Come on NHC! Don't get our hopes up like that!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
It's back.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al022012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
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201205260151
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
1249. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
33.10N74.25W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 55972
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al022012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205260151
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

I love that key word.. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1247. JLPR2
Jeez, you guys are quick, I was just there, didnt see a renumber, came her to see what was going on, saw a renumber here, went back and tada... Renumber...

I bow down to you copy/paste masters. xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where'd it go? :S
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32802
Quoting Grothar:


You won't need a link, it will be posted on here about 300 times.
LOL Mr. Grothar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
They took back the renumber. What?

EDIT: Back up!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1243. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh wait...they took it back. LOLOLOL.


Come on! I was like "Why doesn't F5 work?"
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
1242. cg2916
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


wait, did it just get renumbered ?
I was reading the page then i pressed F5 and it doesnt work anymore, and it looked like it said renumber...


Same here. I was like "Wait, it works now?"
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Oh wait...they took it back. LOLOLOL.

...And now they put it back. LOL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Good lord who cares? lol.

Im playing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WOOT!!!!.HISTORY!!!!!!
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Hello Beryl!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942012_al022012.ren
FSTDA
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NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Renumber.

Beryl at 11pm

Yep. We got us a Beryl!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have 02L!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link


wait, did it just get renumbered ?
I was reading the page then i pressed F5 and it doesnt work anymore, and it looked like it said renumber...
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9756
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I heard of an un-tasked rowboat mission. Apparently Jim Cantore is going to the center to take real time samples before the upgrade. What a trooper.

Watching him at the VA hospital in Mississippi scared poopless when his news van sank in tidal surge during Katrina was priceless. Especially when he broadcast he picked the location for its safety/location.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I SAW IT FIRST! ;D


Good lord who cares? lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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