Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting SavannahStorm:


BOO!

He's HEREEEEEEE....
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Quoting yqt1001:


Not bad for a 45kts storm.

you mean 45 mph?
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What happened to the guy who said this was a poor excuse for a storm?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7376
1329. yqt1001


Not bad for a 45kts storm.
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Quoting MrstormX:


It's been forever since a Georgia landfall, some of the old Georgian members might even rear their heads on this blog because of Beryl.


BOO!
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Quoting Grothar:


Big LOL Dean!!

Thank you, thank you, I do shows every week! ;D jk
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Probably not going to be but 1 in June, maybe none at all.
I think we can squeeze one 1.I'm looking forward to July being active perhaps..But I don't know.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:

What...is it renumbered or not????? I have delayed my blog post...expecting this to be upgraded to Subtropical Storm Beryl in the next hour.

Has there been any other Atlantic season where two storms formed before June 1?

I think 2007 was closest...but since Barry formed right on June 1...I don't think 2007 counts.


Probably official at 11.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Are you freaking kidding me?

Beryl is FINALLY named, and we have people talking about Chris?

yep
Quoting cg2916:


We had people talking about 95L before 94L was declared.

yep


we are look at that coming from a tropical wave that is currently in the E-central caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11110
Link

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting nigel20:
I'm wondering how many storms we'll see in June

Probably not going to be but 1 in June, maybe none at all.
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1321. cg2916
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

What...is it renumbered or not????? I have delayed my blog post...expecting this to be upgraded to Subtropical Storm Beryl in the next hour.

Has there been any other Atlantic season where two storms formed before June 1?

I think 2007 was closest...but since Barry formed right on June 1...I don't think 2007 counts.


It's been renumbered.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
plzs re move that


Quoting wunderkidcayman:
it will look like

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 749W
ABOUT 1XX MI...XXX KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT XXX MI...XXX KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
wunderkidcayman, I would remove that.

Quick.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Why the "It may look likes"? Really not necessary.
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1317. nigel20
I'm wondering how many storms we'll see in June
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Quoting cg2916:


What are they doing?

What...is it renumbered or not????? I have delayed my blog post...expecting this to be upgraded to Subtropical Storm Beryl in the next hour.

Has there been any other Atlantic season where two storms formed before June 1?

I think 2007 was closest...but since Barry formed right on June 1...I don't think 2007 counts.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. 125 years since this has happened.... a strong possibility of a GA landfall... GA better look out this year, along with JAX and Tampa... this may be a year of the unusual wx pattern....



It's been forever since a Georgia landfall, some of the old Georgian members might even rear their heads on this blog because of Beryl.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
it will look like




Actually it looks like you'll be banned for posting fake cr@p constantly.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Are you freaking kidding me?

Beryl is FINALLY named, and we have people talking about Chris?
Why yes:)........
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1312. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Are you freaking kidding me?

Beryl is FINALLY named, and we have people talking about Chris?


Ha! XD

Bring on the D Storm
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1311. cg2916
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Are you freaking kidding me?

Beryl is FINALLY named, and we have people talking about Chris?


We had people talking about 95L before 94L was declared.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
1310. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Wonder if we will see a new blog tonight.
Dr. Masters might still be up.
sure he is and may be scratchin his head sayin why did i ever say wacky 2012 right doc
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Are you freaking kidding me?

Beryl is FINALLY named, and we have people talking about Chris?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Thats is about as abrupt a turn as they come
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Interesting.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Wow. 125 years since this has happened.... a strong possibility of a GA landfall... GA better look out this year, along with JAX and Tampa... this may be a year of the unusual wx pattern....

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1304. cg2916
Quoting Gorty:


Are you sure?


Long-term model support.
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1303. Gorty
Quoting washingtonian115:
We may have to deal with Chris in a week ya'll.


Are you sure?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
1302. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

I SAW IT FIRST! ;D


Big LOL Dean!!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25371
1301. cg2916
Quoting washingtonian115:
We may have to deal with Chris in a week ya'll.


May and June may be more active than July.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Wonder if we will see a new blog tonight.
Dr. Masters might still be up.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
We may have to deal with Chris in a week ya'll.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I was talking about 92L from earlier this month. :P

Yeah, that's not gonna happen.
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It will be Beryl at the next advisory per the NHC conference call. Doesn't really make a difference for the track but I'm just hoping to get some rain out of it. My pool is looking awfully low here in St. Pete.
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Quoting cg2916:


What does everything mean after LO, I can never figure those out.
Your best bet is PMing NRT because I have no idea LOL.
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1295. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I was talking about 92L from earlier this month. :P


not happening.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Tropical Storm Beryl - the first 'B' storm to develop before June 1st. This is the first time since the naming list was activated in 1950 that a 'B' storm has developed before June 1st. The closest before that was Barry in 2007.


This is also, as previously stated the first time in 104 years that this has happened - period.
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Mom nature knows no holidays, I imagine there are quite a few Mayors that are cursing ATM.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I was talking about 92L from earlier this month. :P



oh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
"Roll out the Beryl / We'll have a Beryl of fun
Roll out the Beryl / We've got the blues on the run..."

You probably know the rest.
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THE BLOG IS OVER 10,000!!!!!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



we olny have 6 more days in may too go going too come to be tight there

Well, I was talking about 92L from earlier this month. :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31502
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Could be three in the end.


Where 13?
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Looking good...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15788
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Could be three in the end.



we olny have 6 more days in may too go going too come to be tight there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
1284. cg2916
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Bet the NHC knew we were monitoring and searching desperately for renumber, so they waited and caused us anxiety, and then gave it to us, and pulled it away to see what we'd do xD
Those dirty NHC members! ;D jk, theyre good at what they do.


We all know the NHC just loves to mess with the blog. LOL
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Moving west per radar, which has 73 mph velocities at 19kft


45mph will be short lived IMO. As I stated earlier, 45 was observed in the NW quad some time ago, away from the T-storms.
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this is olny may
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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