Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Too much going on...

...Devils Rangers game...

...Tornado on the ground in KS...

...Tropical Storm Beryl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


muffins are more expensive then cookies...they were cut from the budget after the 2009 season when the inactivity made people eat more

Darn.....;)
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey,PP .....It looks like it is moving West


Link


Absolutely, and no birds in the air for 15 1/2hrs.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01XXA INVEST
D. 33.0N 77.0W
E. 26/1730Z TO 26/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Navy has it as 02L.Beryl:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Link
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Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

We only have one... How bout a muffin ;)
Quoting txjac:


And a hug (this coming from a mom) ...we all love his enthusiasm!
Yes.He done a good job sticking with his guns.
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1377. cg2916
Quoting Hurricanes101:


muffins are more expensive then cookies...they were cut from the budget after the 2009 season when the inactivity made people eat more


Let me check for some cookies. *Looks in cupboard* Dang it, there's only crow in here... I'll have to save that for later. Sorry!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
how about if I put in bold that it is fake

now truly people would be idiots if they don't see it in bold though


A lot of regular folks come on here for storm information when h-season comes along and a fake advisory is the worst thing you can post on here.

Please refrain from that type of post.
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Quoting yqt1001:


Hey that's my line. >:|

You were being too slow so I posted it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

We only have one... How bout a muffin ;)


muffins are more expensive then cookies...they were cut from the budget after the 2009 season when the inactivity made people eat more
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Aletta is born, Aletta dies, Alberto is born, Alberto dies, Bud is born, Bud dies, Beryl is born, _______.

I have noticed that
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1372. wpb
anyone check the navy site?
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1371. yqt1001
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Aletta is born, Aletta dies, Alberto is born, Alberto dies, Bud is born, Bud dies, Beryl is born, _______.


Hey that's my line. >:|
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not till late wed early thursday to ring in the start of the 2012 season jun1st

there is no real problem of having to ring earler
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Aletta is born, Aletta dies, Alberto is born, Alberto dies, Bud is born, Bud dies, Beryl is born, _______.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32065
1368. eye
it looks like a "screaming eagle" like Dr. Lyons used to call similiar systems.
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Okay everyone, you know the drill.

F5..F5..F5..F5..Fresca..F5..F5..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24031
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


And the 0% people who said, why are you talking about this, there is a reason it has 0%.

And the High Shear people who said the shear is only going to increase and 94L will be history.



Tampaspin comes to mind
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1365. txjac
Quoting washingtonian115:
wunderkidcayman needs a cookie.


And a hug (this coming from a mom) ...we all love his enthusiasm!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
wunderkidcayman needs a cookie.

We only have one... How bout a muffin ;)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Preview from my upcoming blog post on this situation...I agree....

"P8...A pair of tropical waves are in the tropical belt of the Atlantic...one that has entered the Caribbean from the Lesser Antilles...the other following behind hundreds of miles to the east. Both waves are suppressed by dry air mentioned at the end of paragraph P7 above. Upper easterlies (aligned with low-level easterlies) on the south side of paragraph P7's upper ridging means favorable low shear. If the western of the two tropical waves overcomes the dry air and starts to develop T-storm activity in this low shear environment...this may lead to yet another area of interest. Absolutely no signs of that at this time."


semd me link when you post it thanks
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I knew we would have Beryl tonight.If we can get Chris and Debby in June it will be a very incredible season.Beryl will probably peak at 65 to 75 mph.
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1361. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep

yep


we are look at that coming from a tropical wave that is currently in the E-central caribbean
not till late wed early thursday to ring in the start of the 2012 season jun1st
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53841
Quoting washingtonian115:
wunderkidcayman needs a cookie.

lol white chocolate please
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Quoting hydrus:
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 25 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)3-Hr Precip, Cloud, and Moisture Forecasts
North America 00 UTC cras45naP0372 hours..


Hey hydrus, look the gfs trough, i told you that thing would cycle back to the weaker run.
And it will stay there ;)
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1358. yqt1001
First IR image titled "02L.INVEST".

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1357. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Why the "It may look likes"? Really not necessary.


Hey,PP .....It looks like it is moving West


Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26150
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yep

yep


we are look at that coming from a tropical wave that is currently in the E-central caribbean


Preview from my upcoming blog post on this situation...I agree....

"P8...A pair of tropical waves are in the tropical belt of the Atlantic...one that has entered the Caribbean from the Lesser Antilles...the other following behind hundreds of miles to the east. Both waves are suppressed by dry air mentioned at the end of paragraph P7 above. Upper easterlies (aligned with low-level easterlies) on the south side of paragraph P7's upper ridging means favorable low shear. If the western of the two tropical waves overcomes the dry air and starts to develop T-storm activity in this low shear environment...this may lead to yet another area of interest. Absolutely no signs of that at this time."
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94L went from nothing a few days a go too a TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115119
Well, I guess I got something to do in downtown other than shopping, eating, and partying at my cousin's graduation party. Glad I'm making the trip from Raleigh down to Charleston for a reason... filming the storm ;)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8009
It's a beautiful baby Beryl!!!
Congrats to all.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Wunderkidcaymen, you still should take that down. Nobody likes them, including the admins.

I like them. :) I just would imagine them in my head.
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wunderkidcayman needs a cookie.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
Invest 94L just renumbered. We have Beryl. I'll do a blog later.

same here. Tired, so i'll post one later tonight(during the 11 advisory) or tomorrow morning.
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Quoting Ameister12:
Wunderkidcaymen, you still should take that down. Nobody likes them, including the admins.

ok I will take it down now
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
What happened to the guy who said this was a poor excuse for a storm?


And the 0% people who said, why are you talking about this, there is a reason it has 0%.

And the High Shear people who said the shear is only going to increase and 94L will be history.

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1346. hydrus
NSSL WRF 4 km grid initialized 00 UTC May 25 2012

36 h Total Precipitation (mm)3-Hr Precip, Cloud, and Moisture Forecasts
North America 00 UTC cras45naP03..Precip water now..72 hours..
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
how about if I put in bold that it is fake

now truly people would be idiots if they don't see it in bold though

Hey wunderkid!
we brought you a little piece of a cookie!
You know, becuase the economy, the blog could only afford one cookie, so we're having to share crumb, by crumb this year. Enjoy everyone! ;D
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Invest 94L just renumbered. We have Beryl. I'll do a blog later.
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1343. Gorty
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh I don't know. I think he finished ranting and left. :P


I been glued to this blog since 94l was declared I think :p well at least since Wed? If not wed then thursday! lol.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
At least we don't have to deal with three goose eggs up until August like we had to in 2009.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24031
Wunderkidcaymen, you still should take that down. Nobody likes them, including the admins. Trust me, I caused a flame war on April 1st for posting a fake NHC advisory.
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how about if I put in bold that it is fake

now truly people would be idiots if they don't see it in bold though
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.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


BOO!



Ahh
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1337. Gorty
Quoting Hurricanes101:
What happened to the guy who said this was a poor excuse for a storm?


I am here still. And it still looks bad. but it is slowly looking better.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
1336. yqt1001
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

you mean 45 mph?


I thought ATCF said 45kts? I don't remember sorry. :P
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wunderkid, we understand this is a prediction. However it could be mistaken for a real advisory. People might not see the "it will look like" part.
It seems people don't want that on here either...

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
it will look like

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1000 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS OFF THE COAST
OF SOUTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 749W
ABOUT 1XX MI...XXX KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT XXX MI...XXX KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 230 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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We are all going to see 10,000 times at 11pm what "it looks like"... and besides, it will probably say nearly stationary.
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OK I am sorry about that
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Quoting SavannahStorm:


BOO!

He's HEREEEEEEE....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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