Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

Share this Blog
40
+

Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1432 - 1382

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1430. cg2916
...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Ameister12:
ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...BUT BERYL
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

NNNN

Aw you got me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
11:00 PM EDT Fri May 25
Location: 32.5°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
I know everyone is suuuuper excited about soon-to-be-Beryl, but we've got some fun in Kansas tonight.





both cells are tornado warned.


Northern cell is turning left thankfully but only because the lacrosse cell is moving right now and is cutting off the northern cell. Wouldn't suprise me if this one went on thru the night even though SPC says things should die down as the night goes on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

11:00 PM EDT Fri May 25
Location: 32.5°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Advisory numero uno!

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...BUT BERYL
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1422. Grothar
First picutre of Beryl

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting KoritheMan:


You have no idea how ecstatic I am right now.
Ohhhh I'm bouncing around now.This is Grothar's second time.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17836
Quoting Tazmanian:
94L went from nothing a few days a go too a TS

Good gravy, I go to pick up my truck from the mechanic and somebody zaps Bud? Whodunit?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Crashing the NHC site since 2005... ;D


Myself...been doing that since 2004....found it better than watching the weather channel's updates....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1418. Grothar
Poll time:

How many people do you think have their finger on the NHC button on their keyboard.

A. 235
B. Just the ones under age 60
C. Just the ones not watching reruns or the Sports
channel
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting naviguesser:


Navy has it as 02L.Beryl:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Link


Yep, we have Beryl.

So did I miss anything else in my absence? Looks like models trended slightly N. Including the 00z BAM suite. Central to N GA looking like a reasonable guess for now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Quoting allancalderini:
I knew we would have Beryl tonight.If we can get Chris and Debby in June it will be a very incredible season.Beryl will probably peak at 65 to 75 mph.

Thats 5 votes even for each person who thinks TS or Hurricane.

5 vote Hurricane Beryl
5 vote Tropical Storm Beryl
(This was as of TAWX13's poll about an hour ago.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, I went away for a while and was hoping to return so that I could be the 1,000th post. I was craving the crow Taz was going to cook up for the 1,000th poster. Looks like I was several hundred posts too late. The blog is scootin' tonight! Probably has a little to do with the naming of Beryl?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Ameister12:
The rotation is making a turn right for La Crosse, KS!


torndao seems to have shrunk, but i dont have the best radar.
Wish ScottLincoln was on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
Korithe man...you better be careful...wunderkidcayman earlier got crticized for pulling a similar stunt....LOL


I'll watch it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Read the end.

Oh I thought you meant gotcha as in you posted it before everybody else, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
For the regulars on the blog, and other weather watchers, who have been around for a few decades, we are witnessing history. Don't have a clue how the rest of the season will unfold but this is quite impressive.


You have no idea how ecstatic I am right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Korithe man...you better be careful...wunderkidcayman earlier got crticized for pulling a similar stunt....LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No that's Bud.


Read the end.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wedge on the ground in KS,

Source?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local news just said it was a tropical storm...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
Beryl!

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260236
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS BECOME VERY
DISORGANIZED...WITH NO CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT...BASED MAINLY ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER 12-24 H...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF BUD. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

A COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE
BUD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48
H. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BUD COULD DISSIPATE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.7N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Gotcha!

No that's Bud.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm still wondering that the water is warm enough, like someone really early in the day posted. Won't this storm live or die depending on it staying over the Gulf Stream?
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 42
Quoting Grothar:


Most of us never leave. Just shows you how interest ing our lives are. How you doing Galveston?
Lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17836
For the regulars on the blog, and other weather watchers, who have been around for a few decades, we are witnessing history. Don't have a clue how the rest of the season will unfold but this is quite impressive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:
F5 F5 F5!

DUN DUN DUUUUN

Crashing the NHC site since 2005... ;D
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1401. yqt1001
First IR image titled Beryl.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I know everyone is suuuuper excited about soon-to-be-Beryl, but we've got some fun in Kansas tonight.





both cells are tornado warned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The rotation is making a turn right for La Crosse, KS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Beryl!

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260236
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS BECOME VERY
DISORGANIZED...WITH NO CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT...BASED MAINLY ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS COULD BE
GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK
TONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER 12-24 H...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE
COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF BUD. THIS MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.

A COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE
BUD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48
H. IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BUD COULD DISSIPATE FASTER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 19.7N 105.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 20.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 19.7N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Gotcha!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman566:
Well, since it looks like we have Beryl...

Are we sure Dr. Jeff Masters isn't on vacation? =)


No, he's not, and that worries me.

No vacations for Jeff till November, got it Dr. Masters?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1396. Grothar
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
It's good to see the regulars are back for what could be a long hurricane season!


Most of us never leave. Just shows you how interest ing our lives are. How you doing Galveston?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:


You forgot reruns of "Frasier"!


Which is what I find myself watching while waiting the first advisories...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
we have Tropical Storm Beryl! LinkIt is on the Navy site
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wedge on the ground in KS,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1392. Grothar
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Too much going on...

...Devils Rangers game...

...Tornado on the ground in KS...

...Tropical Storm Beryl


You forgot reruns of "Frasier"!
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
It's good to see the regulars are back for what could be a long hurricane season!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I like how the Atlantic hurricane season has been one-upping the E-pac...

Atlantic to E-pac: Haha....90L in February...91L and 92L in April....ya big lazy...

E-pac to Atlantic: How about I throw out two Invests side-by-side...90E and 91E....and oh yeah...90E becomes Aletta.

Atlantic to E-pac: Fine then...I throw in Alberto

E-pac to Atlantic: Fine....I throw in Bud...which is the strongest hurricane in my territory in May!

Atlantic to E-pac: Take a look at Beryl!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, since it looks like we have Beryl...

Are we sure Dr. Jeff Masters isn't on vacation? =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1388. txjac
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Too much going on...

...Devils Rangers game...

...Tornado on the ground in KS...

...Tropical Storm Beryl


I know what you mean ..where does the time/wine go??? Drank a whole bottle of my favorite wine watching 94L become Beryl!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile in the Plains, we got a tornado still on the ground in Kansas. This storm has been producing tornadoes for a while and the rotation has actually ramped up recently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting naviguesser:


Navy has it as 02L.Beryl:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html

Link


So here I am, enjoying the hurricane "offseason," when along come Alberto and Beryl. Here we go again...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
F5 F5 F5!

DUN DUN DUUUUN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1384. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
T.C.F.W.
02L/TS/B/CX
MARK
33.10N74.95W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Too much going on...

...

...Tornado on the ground in KS...

...


Look Out LaCrosse:


In a county with 1324 people, but they should be careful:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Too much going on...

...Devils Rangers game...

...Tornado on the ground in KS...

...Tropical Storm Beryl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1432 - 1382

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
38 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron