Bud the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane so early in the year; 94L may develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

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Category 2 Hurricane Bud is weakening, but still presents a formidable rainfall threat as it continues north-northeast towards an expected landfall between Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta, Mexico late Friday night. Thursday night at 11 pm EDT, Bud peaked at Category 3 status, with 115 mph winds, becoming the earliest Category 3 hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Recent Satellite loops show that Bud has weakened, though. The eye has disappeared, and the cloud pattern has shrunk and appears squashed, due to an increase in dry air, wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures affecting the storm. These hostile conditions should continue to weaken Bud to a Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm by the time of landfall. Bud is projected to cross the coast in a rugged, relatively unpopulated area, so wind and storm surge damage will probably be light to moderate. Heavy rain will cover a much wider area, and will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and numerous flash floods and dangerous mudslides will affect the region, probably including the cities of Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta. I don't think Puerto Vallarta will see much in the way of wind or storm surge damage, since it is in a well-protected location and will probably be on the weak (left-front) side of the hurricane. Manzanillo is at higher risk, since it will probably be on the stronger right-front side of the hurricane.


Figure 1. True-color satellite image of Hurricane Bud taken at 12:25 pm EDT May 24, 2012. At the time, Bud was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record May for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Bud is the strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane on record for so early in the year, and is tied with Hurricane Alma of 2002 (115 mph winds) as the second strongest May hurricane on record in the Eastern Pacific. Only Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (145 mph winds) was stronger. Also, Bud's appearance on May 21 marked the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24, 1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large-scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Invest 94L off the Georgia coast could develop this weekend
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) a few hundred miles east of the Georgia coast is headed northeast at about 15 mph. The disturbance has not become more organized over the past day, due to very high wind shear of 40 - 55 knots. However, the latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Saturday and Sunday. Most of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of Georgia/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Sunday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the west back towards the coast, and heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. There is a lot of dry, continental air on the west side of 94L, so the rainfall amounts from the storm will be limited unless until the center makes landfall. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.

I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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The handle already tell you all who it is..Lol.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Are you talking back to your elder?


He always does that. Kids these days. :|
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The upper level low becoming stacked with the system will aid in more thunderstorm activity due to increased instability produced between cool air aloft and warmer air at the surface. Thunderstorm activity can lead to tropical transitions.


The latent heat of condensation can warm the core after awhile, yes, but there are a few factors arguing against a quick transition. Hell, Lee lost tropical characteristics last year, under a similar synoptic setup to Beryl.
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1529. Grothar
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
0300 UTC SAT MAY 26 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 74.8W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
1528. yqt1001
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Well there IS an 8% chance of Beryl making it to hurricane status...



Bud had a 10% chance of category 3 status on his first advisory. :P
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No love for me? ;D
I see how it is, Give me the cold shoulder ;D
Jk. Glad you're on too MiamiH09
See what I mean? Too many handles to name LOL. Glad you're still around too!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The upper level low becoming stacked with the system will aid in more thunderstorm activity due to increased instability produced between cool air aloft and warmer air at the surface. Thunderstorm activity can lead to tropical transitions.


Are you talking back to your elder?
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1525. ncstorm
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:
Don't worry, I got you guys covered.


I had to chuckle at the handle..
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Beryl even looks like a subtropical storm on satellite...
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MAJOR damage reported in La Crosse per storm chasers.

Houses heavily damaged.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting KoritheMan:


Um, what? If an upper low is stacked over a system like this, the result isn't going to be a warm core. At most, it would provide a region of low shear.

The upper level low becoming stacked with the system will aid in more thunderstorm activity due to increased instability produced between cool air aloft and warmer air at the surface. Thunderstorm activity can lead to tropical transitions.
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1521. ncstorm
Quoting Grothar:


I thought the cones were going top be smaller this season?





seems NHC didnt get the memo..
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Don't worry, I got you guys covered.
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Well there IS an 8% chance of Beryl making it to hurricane status...

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know...their basis for a conservative intensity forecast is that the upper level cold low to its west should act to shear it. However, isn't the low supposed to become stacked with Beryl and help induce the tropical transition? I'm pretty sure its supposed to.
Actually the cold low will only help in slowing the process of a tropical transition.
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Quoting Ameister12:
I think the advisory has been posted enough times. Just sayin'.

I think we were all competing to see who could post it first...and I must say...I lost BADLY...LOL....

I told myself I wouldn't engage....but I couldnt resist
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Quoting Grothar:


I thought the cones were going top be smaller this season?





I think that's in house.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Whether She can transition to tropical before landfall is an interesting prospect; the upwelling might keep water temps in the upper 70's all the way to the coast or She might pull it off at the last minute over the Gulf Stream. Either way might not make much of a difference in intensity at landfall (TS vs. minimal Cat 1).


She's not going to be affected by upwelling once she starts moving.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:


bold#1yes
bold#2kinda
bold#3 yes
your bold my italic#1 I say TW in Caribbean is do that
your bold my italic#2 I expect another AOI

lastly I waqs looking on the WV loop and I see 3 spots of moisture one with thw tropical wave one with the one that TS beryl left in the NW caribbean and one with the monsoon trough in the SW carib

if you loop it you will see all three and inbetwee are getting moist and when D-Max comes in I expect to se it even more

you may not see it now but you will see it by tommrow or sunday
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1513. Grothar
Quoting ncstorm:


I thought the cones were going top be smaller this season?



Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Whether She can transition to tropical before landfall is an interesting prospect; the upwelling might keep water temps in the upper 70's all the way to the coast or She might pull it off at the last minute over the Gulf Stream. Either way might not make much of a difference in intensity at landfall (TS vs. minimal Cat 1).
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Got Gro, SJ, StormChaser, TA13, MissWx, and Kori all here tonight. Like the ol' days haaha.

...and Cybr, and Progressive, and what the hell did I get myself into with naming too many handles for me to remember...LOL.

Good times, good times. LOL!
Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4499
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormBud for 26May12amGMT:
It's most recent position is 19.5n105.6w
Its vector had changed from North at ~8.1mph(13k/h) to North at ~6.9mph(11.2k/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from ~65knots(75mph)120k/h to ~55knots(63mph)102k/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 990millibars to 998millibars

For those who like to visually track TSBud's path...
MZT is Mazatlan . PVR is PuertoVallarta . ZLO is Manzanillo

The southernmost dot on the kinked line is where TropicalStormBud became HurricaneBud
The northernmost dot on the kinked line was H.Bud's last position as a hurricane
The nouthernmost dot on the shortest line-segment is where H.Bud was declared to be TSBud again and TSBud's most recent position

The northernmost line-segment is a straightline-projection through the
H.BuD-to-TSBud-transition line-segment to the coastline.
The PVR-to-coast dumbbell shows 2 endpoints of the 25May12pmGMT and the 25May6pmGMT
straightline projections connected to their closest airport.
On 26May12amGMT, TSBud was headed toward passing over VillaUnion in ~1day9hours from now

Copy&paste mzt, pvr-19.832n105.364w, pvr-19.832n105.366w, zlo, 14.0n107.7w, 14.6n107.5w, 15.2n107.1w, 16.0n106.5w, 16.8n106.1w-17.5n105.7w, 18.2n105.6w, 18.9n105.5w, 18.9n105.5w-19.5n105.6w, 18.9n105.5w-23.019n106.203w into the GreatCircleMapper for more*information.
The previous mapping for comparison.

* For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 9.1n99.3w and the first 10.2n102.6w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 10.2n102.6w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Getting off for a while. I could see some more surprises when recon arrives tomorrow.

Even I think 50mph is conservative...

Same.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't know...their basis for a conservative intensity forecast is that the upper level cold low to its west should act to shear it. However, isn't the low supposed to become stacked with Beryl and help induce the tropical transition? I'm pretty sure its supposed to.


Um, what? If an upper low is stacked over a system like this, the result isn't going to be a warm core. At most, it would provide a region of low shear.
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1507. Skyepony (Mod)
Tropical Storm Warning for atleast Volusia & Flagler..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36087
Quoting pottery:
Is someone gonna post the Track Image???

(oh, I see. It's been done 4 times so far)

:):))


You instigator :)

Good to see ya pottery!
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
1505. Grothar
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

CONE OF DOOM!

forecasted only to become 50 mph storm, i beg to differ. thinking 60-65.


I concur.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 63 Comments: 23724
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Got Gro, SJ, StormChaser, TA13, MissWx, and Kori all here tonight. Like the ol' days haaha.

...and Cybr, and Progressive, and what the hell did I get myself into with naming too many handles for me to remember...LOL.

No love for me? ;D
I see how it is, Give me the cold shoulder ;D
Jk. Glad you're on too MiamiH09
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Getting off for a while. I could see some more surprises when recon arrives tomorrow.

Even I think 50mph is conservative...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Subtropical storms typically peak between 50mph-60mph. Should the tropical transition occur sooner then it will likely be raised.


OOHHH
OK
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Agreed. Their reasoning behind it is somewhat valid though.

SHIPS has upper-level winds subsiding to around 16kts in about 12 hours and still keeps intensification very slow. Should be interesting.

I don't know...their basis for a conservative intensity forecast is that the upper level cold low to its west should act to shear it. However, isn't the low supposed to become stacked with Beryl and help induce the tropical transition? I'm pretty sure its supposed to.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


Hey Junky! Sorry I never got back to you. Just saw the WU mail, and my outbound email isn't working.

My guess is, you'll end up in Sav in if you want the weather associated with this system.


I wondered what happened to you! Check your WUMail!
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1498. pottery
Is someone gonna post the Track Image???

(oh, I see. It's been done 4 times so far)

:):))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Dry slot should close up by morning given current progress. I know the waters aren't that warm, but am I alone in think the intensity forecasts seem a bit modest?
Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:


True dat. We have lost some good bloggers. Anyone know what happened to Ike? I think I remember him getting banned, but I'm not totally positive. I might have dreamed that one...


Possible...Some get so caught up in their own ego or foot fetishes that they let it be their demise. Just sayin' ;)

Convection, while a little closer to the center, looks less dense than it did earlier this evening.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15472
1495. ncstorm
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Well the GFS seems to think the upper low will follow Beryl. Maybe that's why.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


True dat. We have lost some good bloggers. Anyone know what happened to Ike? I think I remember him getting banned, but I'm not totally positive. I might have dreamed that one...


I think IKE moved on. I miss his witty remarks during the madness of the season.

Last time I checked, Drak is in college and Lefty moved onto another forum.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Let's not bring up stories about old bloggers okay?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 32.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.2N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 31.2N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0000Z 32.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


what??? just 50 mph peak? It's 45 mph right now


Subtropical storms typically peak between 50mph-60mph. Should the tropical transition occur sooner then it will likely be raised.
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1490. ncstorm
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

CONE OF DOOM!

forecasted only to become 50 mph storm, i beg to differ. thinking 60-65.

thats almost the entire southeast coast..LOL..
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Tropical storm winds are so large that even if it hits border of Florida/Georgia, Charleston will feel the effects.
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7467
It seems the reasoning behind NHC's lack of strengthening forecasted for Beryl is more due to uncertainty, and if it will transition to a tropical storm, and WHEN. If we get a Tropical storm Beryl tomorrow, instead of Monday, we could see her get to 60 to 70 mph, Maybe.
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Quoting Grothar:


Hey 09, How's your globe?
I have it in a cage just above my fireplace. I might have to let it loose come July though. ;)
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Quoting Ameister12:
Funky track.
That graphic looks a bit like a sonogram.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


The late night crew never really changes...Except for poor Lefty, haven't seen him in ages.


True dat. We have lost some good bloggers. Anyone know what happened to Ike? I think I remember him getting banned, but I'm not totally positive. I might have dreamed that one...
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


Although maybe a little conservative, I think the forecast is really close based on the data I have seen.


we always get another ship to sail in....
some of you know what i mean
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Well... Charleston is just on the border of tropical storm watch/warning. Fun :)
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 7467
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 32.5N 74.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 32.3N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 30.5N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.2N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL
72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 83.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 30/0000Z 31.2N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0000Z 32.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


what??? just 50 mph peak? It's 45 mph right now
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.