NOAA predicts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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NOAA forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, in their May 24 outlook. They give a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 15 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 3 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 65% - 140% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. Only five seasons since 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. The strongest Atlantic hurricane of 2011, Ophelia, as seen at 1:40 pm EDT October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. At 11 pm that night, Ophelia peaked at Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were near-average, and are expected to remain so during hurricane season, based on current observations, climatology, and long-range model forecasts.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): "During 1995-2010, some key aspects of the tropical multi-decadal signal within the MDR have included reduced vertical wind shear and weaker easterly trade winds, below-average sea-level pressure, a configuration of the African easterly jet that is more conducive to hurricane development from tropical cloud systems (aka Easterly waves) moving off the African coast, and warmer than average SSTs."

3) An El Niño event may occur this year: "Another climate factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane activity is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.) The three phases of ENSO are El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-Neutral. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña events tend to enhance it (Gray 1984). If El Niño fails to develop, the probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season will be higher and the actual seasonal activity will likely be toward the upper end of our predicted ranges." There is currently of lot of uncertainty whether or not an El Niño event will develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season--the latest NOAA El Niño discussion is giving a 41% chance of an El Niño event during hurricane season, and a 48% chance of neutral conditions.

4) NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts: "The outlook also takes into account dynamical model predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble. These models show large spreads in the ENSO forecasts for ASO, ranging from ENSO-Neutral to a moderate-strength El Niño episode. As a result, their forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season also show a considerable spread, ranging from slightly above normal to slightly below normal."

How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 2. Mean absolute error for the May and August NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts (1999 - 2009 for May, 1998 - 2009 for August), and for forecasts made using climatology from the past five years. A forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

I'll have an update on Hurricane Bud and Invest 94L Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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779. Chicklit
1:25 AM GMT on May 26, 2012
Shear tendency is on the downturn.


whoo hoo Jeff has a new blog!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
778. MahFL
3:00 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Looks like a coc is trying to consolidate on 94L, and the shear is slowly slowly abating.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3550
777. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
776. Skyepony (Mod)
2:12 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Lastnight's OSCAT pass after I fell out. Pulling together..

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 38216
775. Stormchaser2007
2:10 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
This is actually MUCH more warm core than I thought...

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
774. reedzone
2:08 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

I stand corrected. I was looking simply at current conditions, since those have a great impact for the next 24 hours.

Now that I've looked at everything (and made myself look stupid by jumping the gun earlier), I think development in 24 hours might be a bit premature, but the 24-48 hour period will feature a better chance. I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD at the end of 24 hours, but I'm not sure about a TS. If a TS does get going, I'm guessing it will be in the T-36 to T-48 hour period.


It's ok, I was just tryin to prove that I wasn't hyping anything haha... It even caught me in surprise last night when I saw a HIGH chance for development on my IPOD while at the bar... Subtropical at best first, could transition to pure Tropical. Wind shear expected to rapidly decrease in this area, which is hard to believe right now, but this is what every model is showing, and what the NHC is forecasting.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
773. NICycloneChaser
2:08 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I'm convinced that what the models have been showing on and off of tropical cyclone formation in the NW Caribbean might happen come mid next week because energy has been left behind and it appears that a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean might merge with this left over energy in NW Caribbean come Monday or Tuesday next week.



Just imagine if the 'C' storm formed before next Thursday (which I don't think it will), and if 92L was classified in post-season analysis (which I don't think it will be). Would give us 4 pre-season storms....
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
772. K8eCane
2:08 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting K8eCane:



Plus you have learned to quickly move indoors and how to accomodate the quick transfer to indoors what with these summer things we have in the south, but yall might need to go on and plan the thing inside or at least on a covered patio


But i have no clue how yall gonna get the pool indoors LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3210
771. K8eCane
2:06 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


I already told her and she brushed me off. Which means we're having the party whether it's raining or not.
Mom's a trooper. The fact that my sister lives in England and it's usually almost always raining there (or at least used to be) probably also has an effect because my sister is the same way. Her plans never change just because it's raining.



Plus you have learned to quickly move indoors and how to accomodate the quick transfer to indoors what with these summer things we have in the south, but yall might need to go on and plan the thing inside or at least on a covered patio
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3210
770. StormTracker2K
2:04 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Good luck having a Party in 35mph Winds... Lol


Some of the PWAT's east of FL are near 3" in some areas and it's this high octane tropical moisture moving in that is going to create a very wet Sunday & Monday for much of FL.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
769. BrickellBreeze
2:02 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


I already told her and she brushed me off. Which means we're having the party whether it's raining or not.
Mom's a trooper.


Good luck having a Party in 35mph Winds... Lol
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
768. BrickellBreeze
2:01 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting jeffs713:

I stand corrected. I was looking simply at current conditions, since those have a great impact for the next 24 hours.

Now that I've looked at everything (and made myself look stupid by jumping the gun earlier), I think development in 24 hours might be a bit premature, but the 24-48 hour period will feature a better chance. I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD at the end of 24 hours, but I'm not sure about a TS. If a TS does get going, I'm guessing it will be in the T-36 to T-48 hour period.


Everyone makes mistakes, don't sweat it.

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
767. StormTracker2K
2:01 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and then comes the C storm if the B storm forms


I'm convinced that what the models have been showing on and off of tropical cyclone formation in the NW Caribbean might happen come mid next week because energy has been left behind and it appears that a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean might merge with this left over energy in NW Caribbean come Monday or Tuesday next week.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
766. Chicklit
1:58 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting K8eCane:



When ya gonna break the news to her?


I already told her and she brushed me off. Which means we're having the party whether it's raining or not.
Mom's a trooper. The fact that my sister lives in England and it's usually almost always raining there (or at least used to be) probably also has an effect because my sister is the same way. Her plans never change just because it's raining.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
765. StormTracker2K
1:57 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I think many people need to keep in mind that 94L won't be purely tropical when it develop. 94L is in a region of high wind shear right now, but it also is in the right entrance region of a subtropical jetstreak. This is an area of enhanced divergence aloft. This upper divergence forces convergence at the surface and large scale rising motion. This strong baroclinic zone is also why you see so much dry air on the water vapor image. As the jet slides off to the E and S, wind shear will lessen, and 94L/Beryl will then have the chance to acquire tropical tropical characteristics as it spins over the warm waters of the Gulfstream and gain energy from latent heat released from condensation. So for now, instead of looking at wind shear and dry air, look at if pressures are falling and if a circulation can solidify.


Great post!! That exit region of the jet is what's firing these thunderstorms on the SE Side.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
764. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:57 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
As Beryl forms tomorrow, it will be a historical storm.. Historical in being the second named storm before the official start date since 1887..
and then comes the C storm if the B storm forms
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54499
763. jeffs713
1:56 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
Oh and Jeff... I'm not kidding..


I stand corrected. I was looking simply at current conditions, since those have a great impact for the next 24 hours.

Now that I've looked at everything (and made myself look stupid by jumping the gun earlier), I think development in 24 hours might be a bit premature, but the 24-48 hour period will feature a better chance. I wouldn't be shocked to see a TD at the end of 24 hours, but I'm not sure about a TS. If a TS does get going, I'm guessing it will be in the T-36 to T-48 hour period.
Member Since: August 3, 2008 Posts: 16 Comments: 5886
762. SouthDadeFish
1:54 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
I think many people need to keep in mind that 94L won't be purely tropical when it develop. 94L is in a region of high wind shear right now, but it also is in the right entrance region of a subtropical jetstreak. This is an area of enhanced divergence aloft. This upper divergence forces convergence at the surface and large scale rising motion. This strong baroclinic zone is also why you see so much dry air on the water vapor image. As the jet slides off to the E and S, wind shear will lessen, and 94L/Beryl will then have the chance to acquire tropical tropical characteristics as it spins over the warm waters of the Gulfstream and gain energy from latent heat released from condensation. So for now, instead of looking at wind shear and dry air, look at if pressures are falling and if a circulation can solidify.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
761. aspectre
1:54 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneBud for 25May6amGMT:
17.3n105.7w has been re-evaluated&altered
17.5n105.7w, 18.2w105.6 are now the most recent positions
Its vector had changed from NNEast at ~9.1mph(14.7k/h) to North at ~8.1mph(13k/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from ~95knots(109mph)176k/h to ~90knots(104mph)167k/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 964millibars to 970millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Bud's path...
PVR is PuertoVallarta . ZLO is Manzanillo . LZC is LazaroCardenas

The southernmost connected dot is where TropicalStormBud became HurricaneBud
The southernmost dot on the longest line-segment was H.Bud's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Bud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline.
The coast-to-ZLO dumbbell was the endpoint of the 25May12amGMT straightline projection
connected to its 2nd closest airport.
The ZLO-to-coast dumbbell was the endpoint* of the 25May6amGMT* straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
On 25May12amGMT, H.Bud was headed toward passing over the LaPrimaveraCentro in ~12hours from now

Copy&paste pvr, zlo-19.307n104.823w, zlo-19.016n104.305w, lzc,14.0n107.7w-14.6n107.5w, 14.6n107.5w-15.2n107.1w, 15.2n107.1w-16.0n106.5w, 16.0n106.5w-16.8n106.1w, 16.8n106.1w-17.5n105.7w, 17.5n105.7w-18.2n105.6w, 17.5n105.7w-19.832n105.364w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.

* 17.3n105.7w was re-evaluated&altered to 17.5n105.7w. So an incorrect vector(direction&speed) was calculated for 25May6amGMT from using the original incorrect position.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector has been corrected to reflect that change.
The original incorrect vector produced an incorrect straightline projection leading to an incorrect endpoint on the ZLO-to-coast dumbbell
Nonetheless I am reposting it to maintain historicity with the previous map.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
760. Stormchaser2007
1:53 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Once 94L interacts with the ridge and starts to bend around itself, is when the real organization will occur.

For the first time in a long time, I have full confidence in the development of this system.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
759. K8eCane
1:53 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


My mother thinks we're having a pool party barbecue Sunday over here on the ECFL coast.



When ya gonna break the news to her?
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3210
758. BrickellBreeze
1:52 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I don't think anyone was getting too hyped up, but yes, nothing today will give too much evidence for or against development. Everything is as predicted at this point.


The models really have a good consensus on track... The major models have been steady taking it into Jacksonville,FL.

The Dynamic models take 94l into Southern Georgia.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
756. NICycloneChaser
1:47 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting TXCWC:
Some on here need to calm down. Wind sheer was completely expected for today nor was any serious development from 94l expected. Tomorrow is the day to watch.


I don't think anyone was getting too hyped up, but yes, nothing today will give too much evidence for or against development. Everything is as predicted at this point.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
755. BrickellBreeze
1:47 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


When was the last time a tropical system directly hit the Southern Georgia/ Northern Florida area?

Over 100 years ago?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
754. Chicklit
1:46 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting TXCWC:
Some on here need to calm down. Wind sheer was completely expected for today nor was any serious development from 94l expected. Tomorrow is the day to watch.


My mother thinks we're having a pool party barbecue Sunday over here on the ECFL coast.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
753. StormTracker2K
1:45 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting 10Speed:


Who's actually historic? Ruth, Maris or any of the others since?


Here I tell ya. "1 2 3 and to the 4 Snoop doggy dog and Dr. Dre is at the door."
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
752. Barefootontherocks
1:45 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
We'll see what this 94L does and doesn't. Hopefully will take its rain to GA and N FL where (edit) exceptional drought is.


(Add: drought monitor, May 22, 2012.)

Have a good one, wu weather watchers.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 154 Comments: 18770
751. TXCWC
1:44 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Some on here need to calm down. Wind sheer was completely expected for today nor was any serious development from 94l expected. Tomorrow is the day to watch.
Member Since: May 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
750. NICycloneChaser
1:43 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


Yeah, sorry spoke too soon.


Maybe Dr. Knabb will get him a job at the NHC ;) Haha
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
749. K8eCane
1:41 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Bud is going to be a nightmare for the Western Mexican coastline.


yes im afraid it is
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3210
748. Chicklit
1:41 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Unfortunately for him, that was Dr. Rick Knabb.


Yeah, sorry spoke too soon.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
747. DavidHOUTX
1:40 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Bud is going to be a nightmare for the Western Mexican coastline.
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 635
746. NICycloneChaser
1:40 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


Didn't Forbes just leave to become head of the NHC?
He must be thanking his lucky stars!


Anyway, 94L right now is looking awful on WV Loop.
LinkWVLoopFloater

Also shear is about as bad as it can get.


But 850 mb vorticity isn't too bad. And shear is supposed to let up.



Unfortunately for him, that was Dr. Rick Knabb.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
745. Stormchaser2007
1:39 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
744. 10Speed
1:39 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting reedzone:
As Beryl forms tomorrow, it will be a historical storm.. Historical in being the second named storm before the official start date since 1887..


Who's actually historic? Ruth, Maris or any of the others since?
Member Since: June 14, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
743. Minnemike
1:38 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting Chicklit:


Didn't Forbes just leave to become head of the NHC?
He must be thanking his lucky stars!
that was Knabb.. Forbes still stuck with the grilling specialists :P
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1320
742. tampahurricane
1:38 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Yeah in St. pete it was the hardest rain I have seen in a while. Had to pull over at times. Plus was hard telling if there was standing water in areas.
Member Since: May 28, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 288
741. Chicklit
1:36 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting MrstormX:


Exactly, whenever I do turn it on it is usually two giggly anchors barely talking about weather. They will talk about cars, grilling tips, flowers etc. etc. and when they do talk about weather, they have like 2 minute left before a commercial break. Forbes is about all that is left of the golden era, and the only one I have ever seen put arrogant Jim Cantore in his place.


Didn't Forbes just leave to become head of the NHC?
He must be thanking his lucky stars!
Oops, no sorry. MIAMI %u2013 Richard Knabb, the tropical weather expert at The Weather Channel, will be the next chief of the U.S. government's hurricane forecasting hub in Florida, federal officials said Friday.

Anyway, 94L right now is looking awful on WV Loop.
LinkWVLoopFloater

Also shear is about as bad as it can get.


But 850 mb vorticity isn't too bad. And shear is supposed to let up.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11356
740. NICycloneChaser
1:31 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting weatherh98:


Something forming in your typical 50-60 knot windshear


Won't do much today, but the shear was never meant to fall until tomorrow anyway.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
739. MrstormX
1:30 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
BWS had this pegged Monday, I put faith in their charts for this weekend as well.




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738. NICycloneChaser
1:28 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I think he is putting a bit of exaggeration on it.  If it does develop it may just be sub-tropical storm Beryl.  It certainly is a unique feature.  Still looks to be attached to a front or trough as well. The the shear is ridiculous and the dry air that it is pulling in off the coast will definitely limit it's strengthening potential. The shear will subsided, but that dry air isn't going anywhere.


I'm not saying it's going to intensify much, and it may be sub-tropical, but with lower shear and warm gulf-stream waters it could be able to mix out the dry air enough to become a low-end TS/STS. Alberto managed it in very similar conditions.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
737. LargoFl
1:27 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
736. LargoFl
1:25 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
735. weatherh98
1:25 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's a big jump to the NE

.
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
734. nrtiwlnvragn
1:25 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


That's a big jump to the NE


TAFB subtropical, low confidence position


AL 94 201205251145 DVTS 2950N 7650W DVRK TAFB 1515 ///// S LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUITY PSN BSD ON ANIMATION OF CO
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
733. LargoFl
1:24 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting icmoore:



It was strange! I thought we were going to get hammered or at least get something out of it. I have noticed St Pete gets hit a lot lately and points north of here like Clearwater as well.
yes maybe our turn will come monday or tues, gee i sure hope so, we need that rain
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39349
732. ILwthrfan
1:24 PM GMT on May 25, 2012

Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Good model support, weakening shear, and a 70% probability from the NHC means it's fairly likely that it will become TS Beryl. Far from a foregone conclusion, but it's likely. Not magic, just how the weather works.

I think he is putting a bit of exaggeration on it.  If it does develop it may just be sub-tropical storm Beryl.  It certainly is a unique feature.  Still looks to be attached to a front or trough as well. The the shear is ridiculous and the dry air that it is pulling in off the coast will definitely limit it's strengthening potential. The shear will subsided, but that dry air isn't going anywhere.
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731. weatherh98
1:23 PM GMT on May 25, 2012


Something forming in your typical 50-60 knot windshear
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
730. StormTracker2K
1:23 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 94 2012052506 BEST 0 281N 781W 30 1009 LO
AL 94 2012052512 BEST 0 314N 763W 30 1011 LO


That's a big jump to the NE
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
729. icmoore
1:23 PM GMT on May 25, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
it was strange last night, the storms were coming down the coast, right towards largo,madiera beach etc, then stopped, and moved east out into the bay and sat there, while yet another one, sat on top of st Pete and dumped tons of rain..as the storms died out, I got just enough rain, to slightly wet the grass..gee



It was strange! I thought we were going to get hammered or at least get something out of it. I have noticed St Pete gets hit a lot lately and points north of here like Clearwater as well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.