NOAA predicts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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NOAA forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, in their May 24 outlook. They give a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 15 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 3 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 65% - 140% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. Only five seasons since 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. The strongest Atlantic hurricane of 2011, Ophelia, as seen at 1:40 pm EDT October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. At 11 pm that night, Ophelia peaked at Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were near-average, and are expected to remain so during hurricane season, based on current observations, climatology, and long-range model forecasts.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): "During 1995-2010, some key aspects of the tropical multi-decadal signal within the MDR have included reduced vertical wind shear and weaker easterly trade winds, below-average sea-level pressure, a configuration of the African easterly jet that is more conducive to hurricane development from tropical cloud systems (aka Easterly waves) moving off the African coast, and warmer than average SSTs."

3) An El Niño event may occur this year: "Another climate factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane activity is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.) The three phases of ENSO are El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-Neutral. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña events tend to enhance it (Gray 1984). If El Niño fails to develop, the probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season will be higher and the actual seasonal activity will likely be toward the upper end of our predicted ranges." There is currently of lot of uncertainty whether or not an El Niño event will develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season--the latest NOAA El Niño discussion is giving a 41% chance of an El Niño event during hurricane season, and a 48% chance of neutral conditions.

4) NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts: "The outlook also takes into account dynamical model predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble. These models show large spreads in the ENSO forecasts for ASO, ranging from ENSO-Neutral to a moderate-strength El Niño episode. As a result, their forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season also show a considerable spread, ranging from slightly above normal to slightly below normal."

How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 2. Mean absolute error for the May and August NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts (1999 - 2009 for May, 1998 - 2009 for August), and for forecasts made using climatology from the past five years. A forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

I'll have an update on Hurricane Bud and Invest 94L Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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All I read was Major Hurricane.... Annular....
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0z NAM is sticking with its previous solution of bringing 94L (Berryl) onshore around Jacksonville, taking it across the state into the extreme Northern Gulf.

Surface Map at 72hrs:



The 500mb map shows why the NAM predicts this. The 500mb ridge over the Mid-South gets squeezed and pushed to the north of 94L as a trough approaches from the West and 94L's low pressure invades from the southeast. 94L is then forced to go west on the southern periphery of the ridge.

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Now that is awesome to look at and watch
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


BUD doesnt really sound threatening, he sounds like a friend.


Well, he's certainly not Bud Lite anymore.
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ANNULAR HURRICANE
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
must read this...

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES.


What next, a pinhole?
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250240
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM
TAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN
AVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG
OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85
KT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD
90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME
NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM
OVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.
ALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...
THERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT
OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT
MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
TO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD
MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30
HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE
GFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE
ECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER
BY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE
SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS
CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY
TURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.

BUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE
BY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL
AIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL
OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...
IF NOT SOONER.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fmhurricane2009:
IDK if anyone posted this... but... CODE RED!!!!


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.





your vary late with that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


What??? Grothar tracked them and confirmed it himself In person!


LOL
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Anyways, I hope everyone has a goodnight and it doesn't have to be classified/named system to cause basically the same outcome as if it had been, I guess that is what I was trying get across most of all! will ck in tomorrow!Stay safe!
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must read this...

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING
FEATURES.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
For those of you who haven't got the memo (could be nobody) but... CODE RED!


SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
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Quoting Grothar:


The only ones I could find.

May 15-20,1887



May 17-21, 1887


Those tracks are identical. That can't be right.
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Downright Impressive, and in May!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, I'm not attacking you about it or anything. I respect your posts...you are a well-respected blogger here. I just want some information that would back your claim. I never saw any time that this system was deserving of any worry for tropical development while it was in the Caribbean. If it had been able to persist there a while longer, then yes. It would probably be well organized by now. However, it was never in a position to become a tropical cyclone in the conditions that were present. I know it brought a ton of rain to you in the Cayman Islands though.

Its ok don't worry about it, I don't hold malice at all, but when it was in this area and even had a LLC off and on all you you could hear about was the shear, now that is it moved away and shear is even worse there is 60% of development and I don't doubt that it probably will develop, but it was practically ignored until it began to move further north, like I said before just saying.... I could be totally wrong and accept that!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



geting overe a cold


me too. not fun. hope you feel better soon.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, the tracks depicted are identical, and the dates overlap. I would personally not trust a report like this from 1887


What??? Grothar tracked them and confirmed it himself In person!
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting trey33:


very true. hi taz. hope you are well.



geting overe a cold
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting Tazmanian:



we did not have laptop or destops back then


very true. hi taz. hope you are well.
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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:


Yeah, the tracks depicted are identical, and the dates overlap. I would personally not trust a report like this from 1887



we did not have laptop or destops back then
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT

MAJOR HURRICANE BUD!!!!!!!!!

YES FINALLY!!!


BUD doesnt really sound threatening, he sounds like a friend.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 105.9W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lobdelse81:

Wait, I am confused here. Those tracks seem almost identical. One could argue that they were probably the same storm. Plus, the calendar dates seem pretty close as well.


Yeah, the tracks depicted are identical, and the dates overlap. I would personally not trust a report like this from 1887
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"...BUD STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE..."
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I knew I would get some heat for this,but I stand by my comments!I'm not anti US at all, in fact I have stated here many times I'm pro US, but I have seen this scenario repeated year after year, like it or not! Caveat: This is just my personal opinion!


Yeah, I'm not attacking you about it or anything. I respect your posts...you are a well-respected blogger here. I just want some information that would back your claim. I never saw any time that this system was deserving of any worry for tropical development while it was in the Caribbean. If it had been able to persist there a while longer, then yes. It would probably be well organized by now. However, it was never in a position to become a tropical cyclone in the conditions that were present. I know it brought a ton of rain to you in the Cayman Islands though.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The elephant has an edge in terms of size, but the ant beats an elephant for tropical cyclones. There's many cases of unusual ant activity but nothing as far as unusual elephant activity.

Cosmic, trust you are doing well, as usual you make me laugh!
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Quoting Tazmanian:




or better yet you can put TampaSpin on ignore TropicalAnalystwx13 and move on


Thank you TAZ!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol. The storm was never as organized as it is now. Also, it hardly ever had only 20-30kts of shear. Most of the time it was in the 30-40kt range. Also, if you can point out when it ever had as much model agreement as it does now, then I might see your point a little. Point is, there is really no argument because 94L was never even close to being a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean.


I knew I would get some heat for this,but I stand by my comments!I'm not anti US at all, in fact I have stated here many times I'm pro US, but I have seen this scenario repeated year after year, like it or not! Caveat: This is just my personal opinion!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT

MAJOR HURRICANE BUD!!!!!!!!!

YES FINALLY!!!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Best looking hurricane in months goes to Bud:


The best since Hurricane Kenneth, for the Northern Hemisphere. I think Giovanna in the South Indian Ocean looked even better.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Surely you're not suggesting I attacked you? I was just presenting factual information to you.

Going to bed before me and him get into it again.




or better yet you can put TampaSpin on ignore TropicalAnalystwx13 and move on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya i am not sure what NHC is looking at for the increase either. Not bashing them as they may be right but, there is certainly not much model support before and currently not much either. Shear just does not appear to decrease to 20kts as needed. With the VERY DrY air in place as well i just don't see this developing. Guess i am about to be attacked by many i'm sure as it has already started!

Surely you're not suggesting I attacked you? I was just presenting factual information to you.

Going to bed before me and him get into it again.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
A wet Monday would suit me just fine... my sprinkler pump died a few days ago. Ugh.


Question: anyone have thoughts as to what type of wind speed & direction Tampa might experience on Saturday & Sunday? Have big kids regatta in Tampa and need wind. Hoping this system doesn't suck it all away from us.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Animals can tell a lot , they have an uncanny sense about the weather plus other things, sounds much like the crabs on Cayman Brac, ie: when the Tsunami hit Indonesia in 12/2004, the Elephants headed for higher grounds and some people went running towards the sea, maybe us humans just don't have that extra sense that the animals are blessed with.
The elephant has an edge in terms of size, but the ant beats an elephant for tropical cyclones. There's many cases of unusual ant activity but nothing as far as unusual elephant activity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
When 94L was in the Caribbean under 20-30 knots of shear , it was at near 0% for development and even though disorganized it looked quite impressive, now its at 60% and in 50-70knots of shear, one has to wonder if there is a bias towards systems very near to or that may impact the US, just saying.....


Ya i am not sure what NHC is looking at for the increase either. Not bashing them as they may be right but, there is certainly not much model support before and currently not much either. Shear just does not appear to decrease to 20kts as needed. With the VERY DrY air in place as well i just don't see this developing. Guess i am about to be attacked by many i'm sure as it has already started!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
When 94L was in the Caribbean under 20-30 knots of shear , it was at near 0% for development and even though disorganized it looked quite impressive, now its at 60% and in 50-70knots of shear, one has to wonder if there is a bias towards systems very near to or that may impact the US, just saying.....


Lol. The storm was never as organized as it is now. Also, it hardly ever had only 20-30kts of shear. Most of the time it was in the 30-40kt range. Also, if you can point out when it ever had as much model agreement as it does now, then I might see your point a little. Point is, there is really no argument because 94L was never even close to being a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Doom


December 21, 2012! lol
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
these things are surely related...

Quoting Skyepony:
Some of the Radiation readings are up a little in the NE this evening.

Quoting sunlinepr:
It all depends of the weather patterns in the area to where any contamination will spread, if any......




Local TV: Nuclear sub fire very difficult to fight Special operation team arriving on scene Heat creating significant amount of steam Burning for over 7 hours

Published: May 24th, 2012 at 1:16 am ET

See first report here: Nuclear sub burning 50 miles from Boston -- "It doesn t smell like a regular fire" -- Black smoke continues billowing (PHOTOS)
Update: 4-alarm fire less than 300 feet away from nuclear reactor -- Steam continues to be emitted from burning sub -- New aerial footage (VIDEOS)
Update: Fire extinguished, Commander reveals nuclear fuel on board burned sub -- Local News: He 'could not say how much'

Fire on nuke-powered sub at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard hurts 6 WMUR 12:59 AM EDT May 24, 2012


Fire crews responded Wednesday to the USS Miami SSN 755 at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard around 5:41 p.m.

[...]

Around 11:45 p.m. on Wednesday, Fuller said the fire was not out, but conditions were improving. He said heat from the fire was still creating a significant amount of steam.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
When 94L was in the Caribbean under 20-30 knots of shear , it was at near 0% for development and even though disorganized it looked quite impressive, now its at 60% and in 50-70knots of shear, one has to wonder if there is a bias towards systems very near to or that may impact the US, just saying.....


It still doesnt have a well defined LLC, go look up radar loops of this morning off south florida, their was no convection near the center... but then it ballooned.. it got better organized...
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting Grothar:


The only ones I could find.

May 15-20,1887



May 17-21, 1887

Wait, I am confused here. Those tracks seem almost identical. One could argue that they were probably the same storm. Plus, the calendar dates seem pretty close as well.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WHO SAYS WHAT FOR 11 PM?

INTENSITY ??
PRESSURE ??
ETC...

just your opinion


Doom
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
When 94L was in the Caribbean under 20-30 knots of shear , it was at near 0% for development and even though disorganized it looked quite impressive, now its at 60% and in 50-70knots of shear, one has to wonder if there is a bias towards systems very near to or that may impact the US, just saying.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
WHO SAYS WHAT FOR 11 PM?

INTENSITY ??
PRESSURE ??
ETC...

just your opinion
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
The WRF Shear never drops to 20kts....stays near the 30kt range!
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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115084
Quoting TampaSpin:
As i have already read the NHC update....Conditions do improve from a Shear of 50kts to 30kts of shear. That still is not very good as i just stated!

30 knots is not conducive for tropical development like the NHC says conditions will become. I'm not sure what you are looking at, but the latest SHIPS model forecast brings it below 20 knots by 48 hours.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting TampaSpin:
As i have already read the NHC update....Conditions do improve from a Shear of 50kts to 30kts of shear. That still is not very good as i just stated!



Awesome Avatar...I have never seen a cane that color tho
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Quoting washingtonian115:
If Beryl forms I can only imagine the Doc's blog title when that happens..."UNPRECEDENTED 2ND STORM FORMS BEFORE JUNE".Lol.


There is a precedent.

1887.
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As i have already read the NHC update....Conditions do improve from a Shear of 50kts to 30kts of shear. That still is not very good as i just stated!
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479. MahFL
I think I see the shear relaxing a touch over 94L, the cold ir clouds are moving west a touch.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.