NOAA predicts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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NOAA forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, in their May 24 outlook. They give a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 15 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 3 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 65% - 140% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. Only five seasons since 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. The strongest Atlantic hurricane of 2011, Ophelia, as seen at 1:40 pm EDT October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. At 11 pm that night, Ophelia peaked at Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were near-average, and are expected to remain so during hurricane season, based on current observations, climatology, and long-range model forecasts.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): "During 1995-2010, some key aspects of the tropical multi-decadal signal within the MDR have included reduced vertical wind shear and weaker easterly trade winds, below-average sea-level pressure, a configuration of the African easterly jet that is more conducive to hurricane development from tropical cloud systems (aka Easterly waves) moving off the African coast, and warmer than average SSTs."

3) An El Niño event may occur this year: "Another climate factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane activity is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.) The three phases of ENSO are El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-Neutral. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña events tend to enhance it (Gray 1984). If El Niño fails to develop, the probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season will be higher and the actual seasonal activity will likely be toward the upper end of our predicted ranges." There is currently of lot of uncertainty whether or not an El Niño event will develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season--the latest NOAA El Niño discussion is giving a 41% chance of an El Niño event during hurricane season, and a 48% chance of neutral conditions.

4) NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts: "The outlook also takes into account dynamical model predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble. These models show large spreads in the ENSO forecasts for ASO, ranging from ENSO-Neutral to a moderate-strength El Niño episode. As a result, their forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season also show a considerable spread, ranging from slightly above normal to slightly below normal."

How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 2. Mean absolute error for the May and August NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts (1999 - 2009 for May, 1998 - 2009 for August), and for forecasts made using climatology from the past five years. A forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

I'll have an update on Hurricane Bud and Invest 94L Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning.
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Is there a center of circulation forming anywhere for 94? All I can see is a big blob.
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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31985
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. It's still raining here in Grand Cayman. We had quite a bit of lightning last night and I hear thunder off and on this morning.
Morning CI... from your house to mine.... lol Looks like we'll be dealing with this off and on all day...

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There is going to be a lot of rain across C & N FL over the next five days. What a drought buster this could be. By the way the CMC and Euro still have this further south.



Euro


CMC
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Good morning. It's still raining here in Grand Cayman. We had quite a bit of lightning last night and I hear thunder off and on this morning.
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Everyone have a great Friday!
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congrads to dr knabb for his appointment http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2012/20120518_ Rick_Knabb.html got a feeling we will see him at least a few times this summer
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38400
Good Morning. Here is Crown Weather discussion of this morning regarding 94L.

Link
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Crews ready to remove 40 tons of tsunami debris off the Alaskan coast

Link
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665. MahFL
Quoting nigel20:
Western Atlantic


That's the Eastern Atlantic, not the Western Atlantic.
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Hmmm... looks like the next round will be here around 8 a.m. our time, so I think I'll head out now.

Later, all.
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Should take another 24HR for shear to decrease further and allow a more Tropical/Sub-Trop char to develop:



There's a pretty good consensus in the models that it should happen a couple hundred miles E of the S/NC border.

In regards track... very likely that once it become a bit more consolidated that it should start slowing down and start moving N to NW to W to SW until it reaches a region between the FL/GA border before moving back W.

850MB:



700MB:



500MB:



If it's able to enter the N GOM then it could remain strong enough to bring quite a bit of Rain to the SE States.
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Bud is slowly weakening... It has an eye still but you can't really see it



I'm still uncertain about 94L... It has become better organized but is still elongated and has a lot of dry air to its west



According to ATCF the winds came down 5 knots last night and the pressure is up 2mb... I say 55% chance of development over the next 48 hours.
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94L's becoming better organized this AM.
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Good Morning...
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Not sure why NASA imagery isn't updating every 15 minutes the way it normally does.
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Whoa...



SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS
WELL AS CENTRAL CUBA. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Hmmm.... that is a very interesting track forecast for 94L... GA hasn't even had a TS strike that head on in the last howevermany years...
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Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for HurricaneBud for 25May6amGMT:
Its most recent (25May12amGMT) position was 16.8n106.1w
Its vector had changed from NNEast at ~10.1mph(16.3k/h) to NEast at ~7.2mph(11.7k/h)
MaxSusWinds had decreased from ~100knots(115)185k/h to ~95knots(109mph)176k/h
And minimum pressure had increased from 960millibars to 964millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Bud's path...
PVR is PuertoVallarta . ZLO is Manzanillo . LZC is LazaroCardenas

The southwesternmost dot is where TropicalStormBud became HurricaneBud
The southwesternmost dot on the longest line-segment was H.Bud's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Bud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline.
The CLQ-to-coast dumbbell was the endpoint of the 24May6pmGMT straightline projection
connected to its 2nd closest airport.
The ZLO dumbbell was the endpoint of the 25May12amGMT straightline projection
connected to its closest airport.
On 25May6amGMT, H.Bud was headed toward passing over the city of Manzanillo in ~17hours from now

Copy&paste pvr, zlo-19.307n104.823w, clq-18.982n104.21w, lzc, 14.0n107.7w-14.6n107.5w, 14.6n107.5w-15.2n107.1w, 15.2n107.1w-16.0n106.5w, 16.0n106.5w-16.8n106.1w, 16.8n106.1w-17.3n105.7w, 16.8n106.1w-19.016n104.305w into the GreatCircleMapper for more information
The previous mapping for comparison.
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This is a really cool light show going on out here... I just hope the power doesn't go out as a result.

Wonder if Thrawst is awake....
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Morning everybody.

This woke me up about 5 minutes ago...



It was just the booming of the thunder in the distance that jerked me awake. Now the rain is falling torrentially, and the wind is blowing quite fiercely.

Yesterday there was a lot of concern about the possibility of severe weather, but for the most part it stayed off to the NW of New Providence. Grand Bahama reported some severe flooding, with some people who went out to work in the morning unable to get back to their homes, according to the local news. I heard an unconfirmed report of as much as nine feet of flooding in some areas. There was a severe wx warning out for much of the NW Bahamas, but conversely here in Nassau we actually had dry conditions and even some weak sunshine in the latter part of the day, the first in days.

So this is a bit of a jolt first thing in the morning.

I gotta tell u, nothing like having one's early morning drive accompanied by heavy downpours, thunder, lightning and severe road flooding.....

LOL
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 250839
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012

THE EYE OF BUD IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND
THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE
ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. BUD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AIRMASS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. BUD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR
SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/07...AS BUD IS BEING STEERED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH
ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS BUD SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.
AFTER THAT TIME THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD...HOWEVER THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW-
AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF BUD WILL DECOUPLE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND BACK OFFSHORE UNTIL
DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION. AT 48 THROUGH 72 HOURS...A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-EMERGES
OVER THE WATER.

GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 17.6N 105.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 18.6N 105.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 19.7N 105.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 26/1800Z 19.9N 105.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 27/0600Z 19.8N 105.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 28/0600Z 19.5N 105.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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70%. Nice.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 250822
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. WHILE THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. THE LOW
SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Bud down to 95 kt according to ATCF. He's in no hurry to weaken.
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Not much change to 94L at this hour. No buoy or surface reports in the vicinity of the center to confirm organization of the low-level wind field.
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646. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
15:00 PM JST May 25 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Sanvu (980 hPa) located at 23.1N 139.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 25.0N 142.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 27.5N 146.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 31.8N 151.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
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645. TXCWC
0Z GFS says North of Jacksonville,FL 0Z Euro says South of. Think I will go with a NE Fl. landfall around JAX at this point, not GA.
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Euro still has a NE FL. landfall

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Good night all


...SPECIAL FEATURE...


A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N79W...BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. IT HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD...GRADUALLY...DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N78W 29N79W...TO THE
1008 MB LOW CENTER...TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 19N86W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W...AND FROM CUBA TO
ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION COVERS PARTS OF CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN
79W AND 82W. THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND RAINY FOR THE LAST
FOUR TO FIVE DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OVER
WATER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS
STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN SECTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...AND CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RESIDENTS
WHO LIVE ALONG AND/OR WHO OWN PROPERTY THAT IS ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE THAT IS IN YOUR AREA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SITUATION.
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Western Atlantic
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02E/MH/B/C3
MARK
17.55N/105.5W
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640. j2008
Well I'm out, later everyone. Hopeing Bud decides to play nice and spare Mexico from most of its damage and bring some needed rain. Looking for 94L to hopefully look better in the morning.
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hey kori u think that storm has a chance to get to the GOM?
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637. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i feel asleep at page 24


Right before 26? Determining scene scores..oh yeah, you already know how..
Eye score = FFTEye + BDEye + PrevEye + ΔTEye-Cloud + AdjT-12hr

Start toward the bottom of page 27.. eye scene definitions & pictures...pictures kids.
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Are you kidding 60%? 94L is badly sheared and looks like a front with an elongated low. NHC is getting over excited now. Maybe in 2-3 days it will hit more favorable conditions.
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Quoting Skyepony:


Start by reading page 27 til you fall asleep:)
i feel asleep at page 24
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633. j2008
Quoting Skyepony:


Start by reading page 27 til you fall asleep.
Thanks, I'll make sure to save that. Nothing quite like a little "light reading".
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632. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting j2008:
Yea, dvorak is my weak point, I will eventually catch on.......


Start by reading page 27 til you fall asleep:)
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
02E/MH/B/C3
RW FLAG ON
MARK
17.55N/105.5W

It look as if it could be rapidly weakening
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Quoting weatherbro:


Not one model brings it over central Florida.:)


The original poster also said North Florida was out of the woods because it would hit Georgia.
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629. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting weatherbro:


Not one model brings it over central Florida.:)


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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