NOAA predicts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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NOAA forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, in their May 24 outlook. They give a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 15 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 3 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 65% - 140% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. Only five seasons since 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.


Figure 1. The strongest Atlantic hurricane of 2011, Ophelia, as seen at 1:40 pm EDT October 1, 2011. At the time, Ophelia was a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. At 11 pm that night, Ophelia peaked at Category 4 strength with 140 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) Near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR), from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between between 10°N and 20°N. SSTs in the MDR during April were near-average, and are expected to remain so during hurricane season, based on current observations, climatology, and long-range model forecasts.

2) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO): "During 1995-2010, some key aspects of the tropical multi-decadal signal within the MDR have included reduced vertical wind shear and weaker easterly trade winds, below-average sea-level pressure, a configuration of the African easterly jet that is more conducive to hurricane development from tropical cloud systems (aka Easterly waves) moving off the African coast, and warmer than average SSTs."

3) An El Niño event may occur this year: "Another climate factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane activity is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO.) The three phases of ENSO are El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO-Neutral. El Niño events tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Niña events tend to enhance it (Gray 1984). If El Niño fails to develop, the probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season will be higher and the actual seasonal activity will likely be toward the upper end of our predicted ranges." There is currently of lot of uncertainty whether or not an El Niño event will develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season--the latest NOAA El Niño discussion is giving a 41% chance of an El Niño event during hurricane season, and a 48% chance of neutral conditions.

4) NOAA is increasingly using output from ultra-long range runs of the computer forecast models we rely on to make day-to-day weather forecasts, for their seasonal hurricane forecasts: "The outlook also takes into account dynamical model predictions from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the United Kingdom Meteorology (UKMET) office, and the EUROpean Seasonal to Inter-annual Prediction (EUROSIP) ensemble. These models show large spreads in the ENSO forecasts for ASO, ranging from ENSO-Neutral to a moderate-strength El Niño episode. As a result, their forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season also show a considerable spread, ranging from slightly above normal to slightly below normal."

How accurate are the NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts?
A talk presented by NHC's Eric Blake at the 2010 29th Annual AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology studied the accuracy of NOAA's late May seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecasts, using the mid-point of the range given for the number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and ACE index. Over the past twelve years, a forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Using another way to measure skill, the Mean Squared Error, May NOAA forecasts for named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes had a skill of between 5% and 21% over a climatology forecast. Not surprisingly, NOAA's August forecasts were much better than the May forecasts, and did significantly better than a climatology forecast.


Figure 2. Mean absolute error for the May and August NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts (1999 - 2009 for May, 1998 - 2009 for August), and for forecasts made using climatology from the past five years. A forecast made using climatology was in error, on average, by 3.6 named storms, 2.5 hurricanes, and 1.7 intense hurricanes. NOAA's May forecast was not significantly better than climatology for these quantities, with average errors of 3.5 named storms, 2.3 hurricanes, and 1.4 intense hurricanes. Only NOAA's May ACE forecast was significantly better than climatology, averaging 58 ACE units off, compared to the 74 for climatology. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

I'll have an update on Hurricane Bud and Invest 94L Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting cg2916:


Is this a bad sign for the blog or just May lag?


May lag, generally activity jumps tons June 1st.
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and i think the gfs and ecw are still trying too hit at some in next week
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
327. j2008
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good Night all. Hope to be on tomorrow morning for the 80% or the TD1.


the model intensity forecasts:
Dont you mean TD 2?
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Quoting hydrus:
We should know by the end of the weekend what is in the works. Coincidentally, the is a fairly potent low 192 hours out..lol
Tampa Bay residents are you ready to lower the shields?
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325. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting cg2916:


Now we don't have to joke, it's really a pinhole eye.


No, technically it's still just an eye.. Needs to be a little smaller.

Yay Bud..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37829
324. Gorty
Wonder what DMAX will do to 94l since its going pretty good in DMIN.
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Let's break the 1968 record for three! We can do it!

Thinking we'll see 1.
The way I see it work out:
May: Alberto, Beryl
June: Chris
July: Debby, Ernesto
August: Florence, Gordon, Helene
September: Isaac, Joyce, Kirk, Leslie
October: Michael, Nadine
November: Oscar
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Quoting yqt1001:


I'm surprised it isn't busier, hurricane landfall in the EPac and a second pre-season ATL storm. Should be nearly 3 times busier. :P

And it remains May....


Is this a bad sign for the blog or just May lag?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Good Night all. Hope to be on tomorrow morning for the 80% or the TD1.


the model intensity forecasts:
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Quoting cg2916:



Red crayon getting some practice early on.
lol yes from yellow to orange now red
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud is at least 120 mph right now it seems.

25/0000 UTC 16.8N 106.0W T5.5/5.5 BUD -- East Pacific
Another oddity from that vantage point.
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Quoting LargoFl:



Red crayon getting some practice early on.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Tazmanian:
wow


94L went from went from 0% to 20% too 40% now 60%


what did you expect when you broke the crayon box.
Now they will use the red crayon the rest of the way :)
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Quoting KoritheMan:

Let's break the 1968 record for three! We can do it!




i think will see 5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
Quoting Grothar:


That would make it right over our home right now. I just flew into FLL. Very rough, but there is not a leaf moving outside.
Bud is now a major. Someone mentioned a few days ago that this would happen..
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Quoting HurricaneDean07:

ALERT! ALERT! MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS AND HUNKER DOWN! THE BLOG IS PREPARING FOR A COMPLETE WAR! -prepare for the Red Alert RUSH!


I'm surprised it isn't busier, hurricane landfall in the EPac and a second pre-season ATL storm. Should be nearly 3 times busier. :P

And it remains May....
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Bud is at least 120 mph right now it seems.

25/0000 UTC 16.8N 106.0W T5.5/5.5 BUD -- East Pacific
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31982
Quoting cg2916:


Now we don't have to joke, it's really a pinhole eye.

Actually it just looks like one... There's been a big convective fire-up near the center, but they eye remains fairly normal size.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. &&

4. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
NNNN

ALERT! ALERT! MAN YOUR BATTLE STATIONS AND HUNKER DOWN! THE BLOG IS PREPARING FOR A COMPLETE WAR! -prepare for the Red Alert RUSH!
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129

Quoting Tazmanian:
i cant wait too see how many storms we call pull off in june
Let's break the 1968 record for three! We can do it!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's hard not to root for the XTRP :)



As a South Carolinian... help.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Holy crap @ 94L

HWRF completed its MAJOR upgrade today.

It is now the most advanced hurricane model available to the public.

Should lead the way this season.
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i cant wait too see how many storms we call pull off in june
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
304. xcool
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Quoting KoritheMan:

There hasn't been.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

This would be the first time.


Wow, we're living history then!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Definitely a pinhole:



Now we don't have to joke, it's really a pinhole eye.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


If so, youd better be prepared to rewrite the June record books for low temps.

He says the Less amplified ECMWF sagging N-S front is more likely than a trough digging across the E US in early June.

Plus, both of my swim teams swim outdoors, i cant afford for it to be chilly or stormy.
We should know by the end of the weekend what is in the works. Coincidentally, the is a fairly potent low 192 hours out..lol
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Quoting Patrap:


Wow!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
When's the last time the Atlantic and East Pac combined for 4 storms before June 1st?

This would be the first time.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31982
there are some posters here from sarasota/bradington south dont we..here is a weather alert for them... SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
827 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FLZ055-060-250115-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
827 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN
MANATEE AND NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA COUNTIES FOR A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID UNTIL 915 PM
EDT...

AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7
MILES NORTH OF PALMETTO TO LONGBOAT KEY...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES EAST OF FORT DESOTO PARK TO 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SARASOTA...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH WILL AFFECT ELLENTON...PALMETTO...
BRADENTON AND SAMOSET.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE MAY OCCUR. FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS
EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND
A LOW SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AND WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR TO YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2752 8270 2753 8266 2757 8262 2760 8263
2760 8259 2762 8258 2764 8258 2766 8256
2765 8245 2724 8233 2718 8250 2739 8265
2744 8270 2754 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 014DEG 4KT 2762 8261 2738 8262

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
wow


94L went from went from 0% to 20% too 40% now 60%


dont doubt things. Always hope:)

looks like Beryl might do a beryl-roll XD
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
When's the last time the Atlantic and East Pac combined for 4 storms before June 1st?
There hasn't been.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"NOAA forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, in their May 24 outlook. They give a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season."

When in doubt, split it right down the middle!
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Since Alberto went from 50% to formed, 94L has the honour of the first red circle of 2012 ATL!
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When's the last time the Atlantic and East Pac combined for 4 storms before June 1st?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
That should spark some juice in the blog in a bit.

Would truly be something if we get a second named storm before June 1st.
ty for that update teddy..now 60%
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wow


94L went from went from 0% to 20% too 40% now 60%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115069
AL, 94, 2012052500, , BEST, 0, 265N, 786W, 35, 1007, LO
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Quoting Patrap:


Thanks Patrap.

Looks due East of Ft.Lauderdale Florida.

However looking at the radar their isn't any convection around it..
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
94L to 60%
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
That should spark some juice in the blog in a bit.

Would truly be something if we get a second named storm before June 1st.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
RED ALERT for 94L!

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 250037
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

The first one for the Atlantic in 2012.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31982

Quoting CybrTeddy:
RED ALERT for 94L!

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 250037
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
I'm honestly rooting for this system to develop. I love to live unprecedented or unusual historical events, and this would be the first instance in 125 years that we've had two May storms in the Atlantic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

3. &&

4. HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART
NNNN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:

Plus, both of my swim teams swim outdoors, i cant afford for it to be chilly or stormy.
We call that wishful thinking, young man. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
RED ALERT for 94L!

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 250037
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH WITH WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AS WELL AS
CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. INTERESTS ALONG SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Come on down..Bob Barker say's..


Looks like a fast mover anyway....A little nostalgia from your graduatin from High School...
How Much things cost in 1978
Yearly Inflation Rate USA7.62%
Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average 805
Interest Rates Year End Federal Reserve 11.75%
Average Cost of new house $54,800.00
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Cost of a gallon of Gas 63 cents
1LB of Bacon$1.20
Dozen Eggs 48 Cents Popular Films

Grease
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I watched a lot of Rockford and Quincy for sure.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's hard not to root for the XTRP :)



It's funny when the average person doesn't understand what XTRP actually is, lol.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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