94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

Share this Blog
22
+

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 552 - 502

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

552. AllStar17
11:43 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge; all graphics can be further enlarged


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
551. hydrus
11:26 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


I know dat feeling, I graduated in 78' so I'm as dense as chocolate ice cream usually on a Thursday, but development sharpens the ol BHG.

AKA( Brain Housing Group)
I remember all the yip yap that this might hit New York....Hurricane Ella.....Not even close...Here some stuff that wuz happening when you graduated..:)...Cost of Living 1978
How Much things cost in 1978
Yearly Inflation Rate USA7.62%
Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average 805
Interest Rates Year End Federal Reserve 11.75%
Average Cost of new house $54,800.00
Average Income per year $17,000.00
Average Monthly Rent $260.00
Cost of a gallon of Gas 63 cents
1LB of Bacon$1.20
Dozen Eggs 48 Cents
Below are some Prices for UK guides in Pounds Sterling
Average House Price 13,650
Gallon of Petrol 0.79
Grease
Saturday Night Fever
Close Encounters of the Third Kind
National Lampoon's Animal House
Jaws 2
Heaven Can Wait
Star Wars Episode IV: A New Hope
Revenge of the Pink Panther
The Deer Hunter
Happy Days
Little House on the Prairie
The Rockford Files
Good Morning America
Jim'll Fix It (UK)
Saturday Night Live
Wheel of Fortune
Charlie's Angels
Quincy, M.E.
The Muppet Show
CHiPs
The Love Boat
Three's Company
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21175
550. aspectre
9:44 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 16
200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

175km/h is ~94.5knots. 110mph is ~95.6knots
So Bud's MazSusWinds have dropped from ~100knots to ~95knots?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
549. Autistic2
9:22 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
I hope that 94 gives us some rain here in St. Augustine. Maybee Monday?
Member Since: August 29, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 461
548. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
547. LargoFl
9:16 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud is not strong enough to be classified as a major hurricane yet according to recon, but it still has opportunity to strengthen over the next 12 hours or so.
yes this from CNN..........CNN) -- Hurricane Bud strengthened to become a Category 2 storm Thursday as it churned toward the southwestern coast of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.

Bud has maximum sustained winds near 110 mph and is moving north-northeast near 9 mph, the center said in a 2 p.m. ET advisory.

Some additional strengthening is possible Thursday afternoon. Weakening "should begin tonight or early Friday and continue through Saturday," the advisory said.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
546. TropicalAnalystwx13
9:13 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Bud is not strong enough to be classified as a major hurricane yet according to recon, but it still has opportunity to strengthen over the next 12 hours or so.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
545. hurricanehunter27
9:13 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting oracle28:


I doubt it would, don't most big storms leave a cool "wake"?

It looks like it would go right back over its cooler upchurned waters.
True but there is such a large cone it could go farther south than its original path. That is what I am wondering.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
544. LargoFl
9:12 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
................this could be bad for Mexico, its trying to miss those mountains, those people are not ready for this,believe me, in the 80's i drove all around the whole length of Mexico,this going to hit them hard
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
543. oracle28
9:11 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
It also seems like it will backtrack. Wonder in it will get far enough south to re-intensify at some point.


I doubt it would, don't most big storms leave a cool "wake"?

It looks like it would go right back over its cooler upchurned waters.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 596
542. DavidHOUTX
9:10 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol that REALLY confused me for a second. I thought it was saying it becomes a depression before landfall then gets hurricane status over land lol.


lol you and I both. How much moisture will that bring to Texas!!
Member Since: August 18, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 611
541. LargoFl
9:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A CLOSED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BY
FRIDAY MORNING. INITIALLY...THIS NON TROPICAL LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE LOW WILL BLOCK ITS FORWARD PROGRESS AND TURN IT BACK
TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST...TOWARD FLORIDA...LATER THIS WEEKEND.
AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS NON TROPICAL LOW MAY
BEGIN TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

IMPACTS FROM THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WOULD INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND INCREASING WINDS WITH DETERIORATING MARINE AND SURF
CONDITIONS SUNDAY OR MONDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES ON THIS POSSIBLE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
540. nigel20
9:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242055
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 106.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
LATE FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND BUD COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY. BUD IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN


Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
539. keithneese
9:05 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol that REALLY confused me for a second. I thought it was saying it becomes a depression before landfall then gets hurricane status over land lol.


Glad I wasn't the only one. Thought I needed to make an appointment with the eye doctor...
Member Since: February 7, 2008 Posts: 66 Comments: 184
538. Articuno
9:03 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol that REALLY confused me for a second. I thought it was saying it becomes a depression before landfall then gets hurricane status over land lol.

I know, I saw it that way too.
Member Since: October 22, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2413
537. hurricanehunter27
9:02 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

They totally changed it... Now instead of going back out to sea it is forecast to make landfall in Mexico as a hurricane.
It also seems like it will backtrack. Wonder in it will get far enough south to re-intensify at some point.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
536. canesugah
9:01 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Could very much use more rain, we are so far in drought in N FL. Hopefully from this system, didn't get much from the last one.
Member Since: September 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
535. MAweatherboy1
9:00 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


now Bud will landfall in Mexico....weird path

They totally changed it... Now instead of going back out to sea it is forecast to make landfall in Mexico as a hurricane.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
534. hurricanehunter27
9:00 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


now Bud will landfall in Mexico....weird path
Lol that REALLY confused me for a second. I thought it was saying it becomes a depression before landfall then gets hurricane status over land lol.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
533. trHUrrIXC5MMX
8:58 PM GMT on May 24, 2012


now Bud will landfall in Mexico....weird path
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
532. MAweatherboy1
8:57 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 106.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES AND A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO NORTHWESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO EAST OF
MANZANILLO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
LATE FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND BUD COULD BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS ON FRIDAY. BUD IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN


Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
531. LargoFl
8:56 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
530. trHUrrIXC5MMX
8:56 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.

no major
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
529. LargoFl
8:54 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
528. MAweatherboy1
8:53 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Also remember while Bud has been getting stronger the winds sometime take a while to catch up. Prime example is Hurricane Alex. If hurricane Alex had more time over water the winds would have matched the pressure it had.

Alex was totally a Cat 3... Alex was a Cat 3 as much as Igor was a Cat 5
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
527. Patrap
8:53 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
EP022012 - Major Hurricane BUD

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128252
526. LargoFl
8:52 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
409 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FLZ043-048-049-052-056-057-061-242115-
SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DE SOTO-
409 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

.NOW...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE WERE MOVING INTO THE INLAND COUNTIES OF
SUMTER...POLK...HARDEE AND HIGHLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND AFFECT EAST
HERNANDO...PASCO...AND DESOTO COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR. MOVEMENT
WAS WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WITH STRENGTHENING...EXPECT PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS.

$$

RHEA
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
525. Tazmanian
8:52 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I think i see another LLC closer to the cloud mass, just beginning to peek out.

I think it is near the northwestern most Bahama.



welcome too your 1000th post
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115076
524. MAweatherboy1
8:52 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting islander101010:
60mph gust already reported. whats going for us is usually when the systems move sw they tend to weaken

That 60 was probably found away from where the center would set up though... Around the center sustained winds wouldn't be that high, at least not at first.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
523. GeorgiaStormz
8:51 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
I think i see another LLC closer to the cloud mass, just beginning to peek out.

I think it is near the northwestern most Bahama.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
522. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:51 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
521. hurricanehunter27
8:50 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Also remember while Bud has been getting stronger the winds sometime take a while to catch up. Prime example is Hurricane Alex. If hurricane Alex had more time over water the winds would have matched the pressure it had.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
520. LargoFl
8:50 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
416 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FLZ040-242100-
MARION-
416 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN MARION
COUNTY FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL VALID UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 416 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES EAST OF WEIRSDALE...OR 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EMERALDA...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO AFFECT AREAS AROUND MOSS BLUFF...OCKLAWAHA...
WEIRSDALE...SUMMERFIELD...SILVER SPRINGS SHORES...LAKE WEIR AND
BELLEVIEW THROUGH 500 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO
55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.

REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OR YOU CAN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE DIRECTLY AT 1-800-499-1594.

LAT...LON 2896 8211 2912 8210 2912 8178 2896 8174
2895 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 066DEG 3KT 2897 8186

$$

ALLEN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
519. islander101010
8:49 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If it developed how strong could 94L get? Would a peak of 50mph or so be realistic?
60mph gust already reported. whats going for us is usually when the systems move sw they tend to weaken
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4572
518. StormTracker2K
8:49 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
you got a warning out there ST...........FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
428 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FLC069-242200-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0004.120524T2028Z-120524T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAKE-
428 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...THE VILLAGES...LADY LAKE...
EMERALDA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

* AT 425 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEARLY STAITONARY OVER NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY.

RADAR INDICATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL IS CAUSING OR IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND ELEVATE RIVER OR STREAM
FLOWS. MINOR FLOODING MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY LANE OR ROAD CLOSURES BUT
THE THREAT OF WATER ENTERING HOMES AND BUSINESSES IS LOW.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE
THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE
TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8195 2897 8179 2886 8196 2887 8196
2896 8196

$$



CRISTALDI


It's 91 here with a heat index of 100. So as you can so no rain here as well but there are some poppers west of me.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
517. TropicalAnalystwx13
8:49 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If it developed how strong could 94L get? Would a peak of 50mph or so be realistic?

I'd say a strong tropical storm. Possibly stronger than Alberto, but probably not a hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32003
516. GTcooliebai
8:48 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
18z NAM click for loop

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
515. GeorgiaStormz
8:48 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
If it developed how strong could 94L get? Would a peak of 50mph or so be realistic?


45 unless another stupid SHIP gets in the way :P
Then of course it will be 60....
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
514. LargoFl
8:47 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Got some streamers coming in from the east.

you got a warning out there ST...........FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
428 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FLC069-242200-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FA.Y.0004.120524T2028Z-120524T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
LAKE-
428 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWEST LAKE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...THE VILLAGES...LADY LAKE...
EMERALDA...

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT.

* AT 425 PM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEARLY STAITONARY OVER NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY.

RADAR INDICATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN...AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE ADVISORY AREA BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL IS CAUSING OR IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND ELEVATE RIVER OR STREAM
FLOWS. MINOR FLOODING MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY LANE OR ROAD CLOSURES BUT
THE THREAT OF WATER ENTERING HOMES AND BUSINESSES IS LOW.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER ON COUNTRY ROADS AND
FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE
THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE
TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2897 8195 2897 8179 2886 8196 2887 8196
2896 8196

$$



CRISTALDI
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38436
513. PlazaRed
8:46 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I wonder if sometime down the road the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season will be pushed back to start in May?

I don't think its in the realm of wonder really anymore. An advancement to mid May will probably become inevitable within the next few years as the earlier warming of the waters and other factors decrease.
As I have said on many occasions the warming of the Arctic and its underestimated, unpredictable effects will possibly play a major part in the earlier formation of high intensity storms and possibly hurricanes.
Only time as usual will tell but I would say in less than 20 years, the clock will have to be pushed forward to mid May!
Member Since: January 21, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2074
512. MAweatherboy1
8:45 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
If it developed how strong could 94L get? Would a peak of 50mph or so be realistic?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
511. Stormchaser2007
8:44 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
510. Patrap
8:43 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Good afternoon Pat!


Afternoon over dere in INVEST 94 Land.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128252
509. StormTracker2K
8:43 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Got some streamers coming in from the east.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
508. aspectre
8:42 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for HurricaneBud for 24May6pmGMT:
15.3n106.9w has been re-evaluated&altered
15.2n107.1w, 16.0n106.5w are now the 2 most recent positions

Its vector had changed from NNEast at ~8.2mph(13.2k/h)* to NEast at ~11.3mph(18.2k/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from ~90knots(104mph)167k/h to ~100knots(115)185k/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 970millibars to 961millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Bud's path... ZLO is Manzanillo
LZC is LazaroCardenas . ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo . ACA is Acapulco

The easternmost connected dot is where TropicalDepressionBud became TropicalStormBud
The next dot to the northwest on that kinked line is where TSBud became HurricaneBud
The southwesternmost dot on the longest line-segment was H.Bud's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Bud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline of a continent or an inhabited island
The unconnected coastline dot was the endpoint* of the 24May12pmGMT*straightline projection
On 24May6pmGMT, H.Bud was headed toward passing ~8miles(14kilometres) southeast of Manzanillo in ~20hours from now

Copy&paste zlo, 18.78n103.84w, lzc, zih, aca, 10.2n102.6w, 10.8n103.6w, 11.7n104.6w, 12.6n105.6w, 12.9n106.6w,13.1n107.5w, 13.6n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w-14.6n107.5w, 14.6n107.5w-15.2n107.1w, 15.2n107.1w-16.0n106.5w, 15.2n107.1w-18.982n104.21w into the GreatCircleMapper for more^information
The previous mapping for comparison.

^ For even more info, replace the 'comma&space's between 10.2n102.6w and the first 14.0n107.7w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 14.0n107.7w,
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a "copy&paste"able copy of what generated my map.)

* Because 15.3n106.9w was re-evaluated&altered to 15.2n107.1w, an incorrect vector(direction&speed) was previously calculated from using that previous incorrect postion.
Through recalculation using the correct position, the vector has been corrected to reflect that change.
Because an incorrect position produced an incorrect vector, the unconnected coastline dot shows an incorrect endpoint because of an incorrect straightline projection.
Nonetheless I am reposting it to maintain historicity with the previous map.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
507. StormTracker2K
8:40 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Some have been preaching dat for years here.

: )


Good afternoon Pat!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
506. StormTracker2K
8:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Careful now......


LOL! I figured I would wake you up there in St. Augustine,;)
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
505. MAweatherboy1
8:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Sanvu is up to 80mph but has little time left to strenghten... It has really struggled to clear out and maintain an eye...

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 83 Comments: 7779
504. StormTracker2K
8:37 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Those are statistical models not the dynamic models.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
503. StAugustineFL
8:37 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:


No it's not.. Consensus is St. Augustine.


Careful now......
Member Since: March 8, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 802
502. Patrap
8:34 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Some have been preaching dat for years here.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128252

Viewing: 552 - 502

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.