94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
T-minus 3 hours 32 minutes until recon departs for Bud.


Plane is flying already.


Observation Time: Thursday, 16:01Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 24.0N 94.7W
Location: 235 miles (378 km) to the ENE (59°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 13 knots (From the NW at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,530 geopotential meters
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
T-minus 3 hours 32 minutes until recon departs for Bud.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
In this morning's satellite pic of Bud linked in Dr. Masters' post, along the northern edge of the main convection there is an arc of striated clouds generally pointing in the direction of the eye. They look like tank tracks across the Pacific. Would someone mind explaining what mechanics are in play to cause that pattern? (gotta run but will check back, thanks in advance)
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Quoting weatherh98:


That's 132 mph


In a few hours we will know more when the plane arrives.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


ADT says 115 knots



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2012 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 15:34:41 N Lon : 106:44:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.6mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE


That's 132 mph
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Dry air about to snuff out 94L's chances of developing more than an Invest.


Click image for loop.

ATL wide view.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is there something wrong that no HDOBs from the plane going to Bud?


May not have turned them on yet, last report I have seen:

000
URNT11 KNHC 241602
97779 16014 51240 94700 73100 31013 71//1 /5753
RMK AF308 0102E BUD OB 03
SWS = 24 KTS
DEW POINT NEG 52 DEGREES C
;
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Probably old news to everyone by now, but I just read it as I have been off all morning because of stupid school testing....

NHC Seasonal Forecast
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I would settle on 125 mph as well.



ADT says 115 knots



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2012 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 15:34:41 N Lon : 106:44:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.6mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -65.4C

Scene Type : EYE
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Looks like 100 knots... so agreement but slightly less in strength.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I would settle on 125 mph as well.

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Anyone notice how cloudy the ATL is?
Would hamper sst increase.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Bud is likely a Category 3 hurricane with winds around 125 MPH, which is probably a little bit conservative.



Slightly old, but I think Bud looks better than this now.


They will put it at 115
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Unfortunately that is the "state of the art" in seasonal hurricane forecasting at this timeframe, what they have demonstrated their accuracy to be from past forecasts. Colorado State (Grey) is not much better:

Storms: 6.6 - 13.4
Hurricanes: 1.6 - 6.4
Majors: 0.5 - 3.5
ACE: 17 - 123


Is there something wrong that no HDOBs so far have been released from the plane going to Bud?
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Quoting ScottLincoln:


So May is exactly as it should be, or it isn't?
Those two ideas seem like they might be contradictory.


Yea you can't have had a positive PDO and the get a negative PDO and call that normal because it's a pretty substantial climate change
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Well that certainlly explains things.  I've been taking weather reading and studying historic data and you have historically had a better accuracy rate than me.

Quoting Patrap:
I use a dartboard supplemented with a Ouija Board for my er, "Seasonal Forecast", it runs around 78% accuracy usually.

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, really going out on a limb there, aren't they? ;-) Anywhere from 9/4/1/65 to 15/8/3/140? That's a centerline of 12/6/2/102. The average from 1950 through 2011 is 10.7/6.3/2.7/102.6, so to summarize: right down the middle, with an ACE between tepid and hyperactive. (Or to be more precise, slightly more TSs than normal, but slightly fewer hurricanes and majors.)



Unfortunately that is the "state of the art" in seasonal hurricane forecasting at this timeframe, what they have demonstrated their accuracy to be from past forecasts. Colorado State (Grey) is not much better:

Storms: 6.6 - 13.4
Hurricanes: 1.6 - 6.4
Majors: 0.5 - 3.5
ACE: 17 - 123
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
Anyone notice the second voriticy just to the west of Tampa with 94L?



It maybe the upper trough.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
I would settle on 125 mph as well.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
It will be a useful tool for 94L and other disturbances near the Florida coast (or anywhere where they have the monitoring stations) to keep an eye on the buoy data in the relevant region.

Here is the link to the National Data Buoy Center.

Link

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
133. BDAwx
Quoting Patrap:
If one is using the SSS for Impact data and convenience, well, it was designed for wind loading on structures and has no account for surge values.

In other words, its useless for any determination of any singular impact.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Which is why there will be more than 1-3 major canes this year.


A hurricane with 1-minute sustained winds over 111mph is a major hurricane. Wind speed is the only defining factor. When I think about it, this is reasonable, because, right now, you can't accurately measure the other impacts of a hurricane before it makes landfall. But you can actually physically go out into the storm to measure the wind speed (hurricane hunters).

You can say a foot of rain is expected to cause extensive flooding and a destructive storm surge between 15 and 20 feet is likely, but that is your best guess based on a model. Compared to actual measurements verifying your claims of 115mph winds.

Public perception and the connotations of a major hurricane are what screws things up - and perhaps the NHC should work something out to resolve this issue because their products are there to warn the public as well as serve a scientific purpose. But then again, the media attention doesn't help with public perception very much.
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Anyone notice the second voriticy just to the west of Tampa with 94L?

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94L now heading NE, center is NW of Key Largo.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting weatherbro:
Strange how the GFS is a westert outlier. Usually it's the other way around.


Yeah it stalls 94L in the NE Gulf. It's more west due to the fact that the center of 94L is very near Miami and not out to sea as the other models are showing.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Bud is likely a Category 3 hurricane with winds around 125 MPH, which is probably a little bit conservative.



Slightly old, but I think Bud looks better than this now.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's not though, it really isn't. The large-scale circulation over the Atlantic is exactly as it should be for the month of May.

The reason they exist is because of the big eastern U.S. ridge... The big eastern ridge is largely due to the negative PDO that has been developing, ushering in a pattern that we are not used to because it has not happened on the decadal scale since the 1970s.


So May is exactly as it should be, or it isn't?
Those two ideas seem like they might be contradictory.
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Might make a run at MH status

FULL IMAGE

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Air pressure at Fowey Rocks, just off the coast of Key Largo, is actually rising but the wind is blowing at 22 knots.

Station FWYF1
NDBC
Location: 25.591N 80.097W
Date: Thu, 24 May 2012 15:00:00 UTC

Winds: ESE (110°) at 18.1 kt gusting to 22.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and rising
Air Temperature: 73.8 F
Water Temperature: 79.2 F
View Details - View History


Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
Quoting stillwaiting:
dont be fooled 94l is being heavily sheered,as noted by the majority of the convection and probably a mid level circulation off to the east of any llc near the everglades,50kts of sheer will do that:-) ,expect baroclonic lifting to induce lower pressures as 94l's energy quickly advects NNE tonight/tomorrow,sheer will still be a problem until saturday imo


I wonder if the LLC will relocate under the MLC when shear lessens, as has has happened in the pas with these sheared systems. However, it looks like my assessment of the Cuba low becoming dominant and shifting off of the Florida coast will turn out accurate, and I expect a subtropical or tropical depression around Sunday morning. It depends on how soon the shear lessens and if 94L can bring its centers together near or under convection and separate from the trough.
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Strange how the 6z GFS is a western outlier. Usually it's the other way around.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud is likely a major hurricane now.


Plane is on route and will confirm later this afternoon.
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Quoting wxmod:
Huge area of algae or something forming in Mid Atlantic. MODIS satellite photos today.





What's the coordinates on that? looks like an island about to rise above the surface
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting bluheelrtx:

Getting really dry here. The snakes at the pond are running out of frogs to eat.



Texas Copperhead
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
We aint going out like a lamb for 2012
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting stillwaiting:
dont be fooled 94l is being heavily sheered,as noted by the majority of the convection and probably a mid level circulation off to the east of any llc near the everglades,50kts of sheer will do that:-) ,expect baroclonic lifting to induce lower pressures as 94l's energy quickly advects NNE tonight/tomorrow,sheer will still be a problem until saturday imo


Nice Call. 50-60 knots of sheer will do that.

Link
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
Quoting RitaEvac:


Already dry here. Need rain and we're not even in drought. It's been said rains will come during the wrong times. And that's exactly what is happening.

Getting really dry here. The snakes at the pond are running out of frogs to eat.

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Quoting Patrap:
If one is using the SSS for Impact data and convenience, well, it was designed for wind loading on structures and has no account for surge values.

In other words, its useless for any determination of any singular impact.


Which is why there will be more than 1-3 major canes this year.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
If one is using the SSS for Impact data and convenience, well, it was designed for wind loading on structures and has no account for surge values.

In other words, its useless for any determination of any singular impact.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452
dont be fooled 94l is being heavily sheered,as noted by the majority of the convection and probably a mid level circulation off to the east of any llc near the everglades,50kts of sheer will do that:-) ,expect baroclonic lifting to induce lower pressures as 94l's energy quickly advects NNE tonight/tomorrow,sheer will still be a problem until saturday imo
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114. wxmod
Huge area of algae or something forming in Mid Atlantic. MODIS satellite photos today.



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Bud is likely a major hurricane now.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
NOAA released it's May outlook. 9-15 named storms,4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 Major Canes.

Link


Ike type storms with cat 4 surges, can and do occur out of this category that is bolded
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
This is a heavly populated area...




THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL METRO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1230 PM EDT

* AT 1141 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM PINECREST TO CUTLER BAY...AND MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* THE LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT...
PALMETTO BAY...
CUTLER RIDGE...
WEST PERRINE...
PINECREST...
ZOO MIAMI...
KENDALL...
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
I use a dartboard supplemented with a Ouija Board for my er, "Seasonal Forecast", it runs around 78% accuracy usually.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129452



Link




no doubt that 94L is producing TS force winds and according to this center isnt bad either
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Another good thing on the current proximity to Miami is that NHC can just walk out to their parking lot or drive to the beach and take a pressure reading..... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9377
NOAA released it's May outlook. 9-15 named storms,4-8 hurricanes and 1-3 Major Canes.

Link
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94L center of circulation is now North of Key Largo.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32720
nic eye






UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2012 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 15:31:16 N Lon : 106:45:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.0mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.1 6.1
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting 7544:
we know it cant get too far north with the big high forcing it back to the wsw the question is if it did develope how far north it gets before making the west trip anyone wana take a shot at it



South Carolina, then it heads SW into Georgia/ North Florida, before the ridge gives way, and it exits over south Carolina and north Carolina.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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