94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Jrrtrollkien:


Shear is too high...




shear will be falling
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
This spring will become the warmest on record for the contiguous United States. The current warmest spring occurred in 1910 with a mean temperature of 55.1F nationally. For March 1 through April 30, this spring averaged about 53.45F, compared to 52.65F in 1910. May 1910 was cooler than normal, whereas this month has been much warmer than normal and should rank among the top five warmest nationally. For the meteorological spring, then, this year should easily surpass the existing record by more than 1 degree Fahrenheit.

Another globally-warmed pocket of air moving is currently centered over the middle of the country today and will spread northeast over the Memorial Day weekend. Record-breaking temperatures of 15 to as much as 25 degrees above normal are possible in spots.

As I noted yesterday, much of the country has also been unusually dry, as depicted by streamflow, soil moisture, and drought indicator maps. The most recent U.S. drought monitor has picked up on this trend and currently lists 62.32% of the contiguous U.S. as unusually dry or in drought. This could pose problems as we head into the summer in the form of water restrictions and poor crop and field conditions.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This could become a [Sub]tropical storm as early as late tomorrow.




that will give else are 2nd name storm of the season and will be this about the same # with the E pac
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
This could become a [Sub]tropical storm as early as late tomorrow.
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Quoting hydrus:
216 GFS..This could be interesting. We should have a good idea by this weekend.



What is this showing?
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Quoting zoomiami:
Nice to see some familiar south florida faces today

It is definitely wet --- didn't even realize we were in an invest area!

Hi Taz!



hi
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Getting better and better organized as the day goes on.




Has a good shape for formation.
In a way it looks better than Alberto ever did.
I think it will become a TD on Saturday
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
This systems looks like it is going to dump lots of rain across FL over the next week or so.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The new crazy GFS is coming in, and i see no more than a TD for Beryl. Would that be TD1 since Alberto skipped it? I forgot how that went.

And the GFS wants to clash 60F air with 90F air, in a negatively tilted trough,similiar to a run earlier this week:


If this Grand Fail System(GFS)verifies, i will come out from the rubble of my destroyed home, find the ice covered crows falling from the sky and make a nice crow sandwich..
216 GFS..This could be interesting. We should have a good idea by this weekend.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Getting better and better organized as the day goes on.




Theres a reason NHC put a orange crayon on it, 1 it's on their backyard, 2 taz broke into the crayon box 3 it's looking good
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Getting better and better organized as the day goes on.




Circulation now East of Miami...

It continues to become better defined.
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Nice to see some familiar south florida faces today

It is definitely wet --- didn't even realize we were in an invest area!

Hi Taz!
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Getting better and better organized as the day goes on.


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Quoting Tazmanian:




i did
Lol
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GFS is a little more sane with the trough for the E Central US this run.

Shows 35kt winds at the surface as the tropical system moves south along the Carolina coast, weakening to 30kts or below as the system approaches Florida.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Link? Source?


Virginia Key
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well looking at the new vort map (15Z) show that it has actually split into two one which is by Fl and the other is in the NW caribbean so it is two circulations not one elongated


What is possible with the 2nd circulation in the NW Carib?
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Link? Source?


Outside my window in downtown Miami
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Quoting weatherh98:


Who the heck broke into the crayon box?!




i did
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Break out with the orange crayon.



Who the heck broke into the crayon box?!
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Break out with the orange crayon.

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looks like we may see a STS out oh this
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
As I said earlier, they were being conservative.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31466
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Not sure why people are referring to a defined center of circulation in association with Invest 94L when satellite imagery and surface observations both show that the circulation is quite elongated from northwest to southeast and, at least from what I've seen, is not a closed circulation either.

well looking at the new vort map (15Z) show that it has actually split into two one which is by Fl and the other is in the NW caribbean so it is two circulations not one elongated
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
from 0% too 20% too 40% not bad
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
Up to 40%!



ABNT20 KNHC 241654
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
FLORIDA KEYS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN
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Quoting AAPLTrader:
Winds gusting to 30 knots in Miami.


Link? Source?
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Winds gusting to 30 knots in Miami.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF:


under 1008mb

many of the models have the system approach florida, stop, and then shoot off the the NE while others have it getting into the GOM.



A landfall in northern Florida/ southern georgia is becoming more and more possible.
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Not sure why people are referring to a defined center of circulation in association with Invest 94L when satellite imagery and surface observations both show that the circulation is quite elongated from northwest to southeast and, at least from what I've seen, is not a closed circulation either.
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1008mb low over SE Fla.
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166. 7544
looking to the east of so fla another big blob of rain in about 2 more hours moving nw looks so of cuba another big red blob forming heading n ne and moving very slow at this hour get ready to get xtra wet miaimi
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6690
ECMWF:


under 1008mb

many of the models have the system approach florida, stop, and then shoot off the the NE while others have it getting into the GOM.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting gatorchomp:
Hey guys!

Lurked all of last hurricane season...

Going to Jacksonville Beach this weekend, hoping for some waves!



You'll get them thanks to 94L.
Goodnight
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Actually, he said he would be too busy today to be able to create one...



If you wanna get technical this is what he said




"I will not be able to cut a video discussing this until tomorrow due to my schedule."

But that means he's making one
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Quoting weatherh98:
Levi mentioned on Facebook that he's making a video for 94l


From Levi's Tropical Tibits Facebook page.

ECMWF, JMA, CMC, and UKMET are now all onboard with at least a (sub)tropical depression or weak storm developing off the SE U.S. coast underneath the upper trough mentioned a couple of days ago, and then getting blocked and coming back towards the coast. The models are now seeing the threat that we talked about before. As with Alberto, any development should peak in strength before landfall, and then be weakening as it nears the coast due to dry air entrainment. I will not be able to cut a video discussing this until tomorrow due to my schedule.
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:31Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)
Storm Number: 02
Storm Name: Bud (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 04

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Thursday, 16:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 22.1N 96.2W
Location: 106 miles (171 km) to the E (95°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 300° at 21 knots (From the WNW at ~ 24.1 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -19°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,560 geopotential meters
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The circulation of 94L is now due west of Miami.

I'm off to bed. Goodnight all Stay well, stay safe

:-)
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CMC:


Under 1008 mb
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting weatherh98:
Levi mentioned on Facebook that he's making a video for 94l


Actually, he said he would be too busy today to be able to create one...
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
The new crazy GFS is coming in, and i see no more than a TD for Beryl. Would that be TD1 since Alberto skipped it? I forgot how that went.
And it wants to clash 60F air with 90F air, similiarly to a run earlier this week:


Guess the 12z GFS keeps it meandering around the SW Atlantic off of the SE coast...And what is this! If it materializes, then rainy season will have to be on hold for another two weeks in Central Florida!
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There is the plane on route.

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Levi mentioned on Facebook that he's making a video for 94l
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The new crazy GFS is coming in, and i see no more than a TD for Beryl. Would that be TD1 since Alberto skipped it? I forgot how that went.

And the GFS wants to clash 60F air with 90F air, in a negatively tilted trough,similiar to a run earlier this week:


If this Grand Fail System(GFS)verifies, i will come out from the rubble of my destroyed home, find the ice covered crows falling from the sky and make a nice crow sandwich..
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9720
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
T-minus 3 hours 32 minutes until recon departs for Bud.


Plane is flying already.


Observation Time: Thursday, 16:01Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 24.0N 94.7W
Location: 235 miles (378 km) to the ENE (59°) from Tampico, Tamaulipas, México.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 7,310 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 310° at 13 knots (From the NW at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -21°C
Flight Level Dew Point: Is most likely too dry to measure. If it is instead colder than -49.4°C, it will appear in the remarks section.
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,530 geopotential meters
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.