94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Also, and looking at the water vapor loops, it is bone dry in the Gulf and over Florida at the moment as the low clears the coast and that dry air is feeding right into it at the moment.....That may hinder tropical development but maybe not sub-tropical or extra-tropical development if the low deepens. The next 72 hours will be interesting to watch.
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...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS
SHIFTED TOWARDS THE N AND CURRENTLY IS IMPACTING THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...SE FLORIDA...AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE
SYSTEM IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N81W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N78W TO
THE LOW AND CONTINUING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 20N85W. MOST OF
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
CURRENTLY STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE APPROACHING CENTRAL
CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO FARTHER N ACROSS SE FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS FROM 24N-29N
BETWEEN 73W-80W. REPORTS FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT AREAS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN REGION HAVE RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN UP
TO 8 INCHES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WITH MORE RAIN ON THE WAY
THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS POSSIBLE. SE FLORIDA
INCLUDING MIAMI...AND THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING FREEPORT HAVE ALSO
REPORTED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA AND THE
INCREASED RAIN TODAY WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED IN SOME OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO GET BETTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
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A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Miami-Dade and Broward Coast effective until 6 PM this evening. Wind gusts of 50-60 mph have been reported along portions of the Miami-Dade County coast this afternoon on the back side of a low.
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Quoting ClimateChange:
This spring will become the warmest on record for the contiguous United States. The current warmest spring occurred in 1910 with a mean temperature of 55.1F nationally. For March 1 through April 30, this spring averaged about 53.45F, compared to 52.65F in 1910. May 1910 was cooler than normal, whereas this month has been much warmer than normal and should rank among the top five warmest nationally. For the meteorological spring, then, this year should easily surpass the existing record by more than 1 degree Fahrenheit.

Another globally-warmed pocket of air moving is currently centered over the middle of the country today and will spread northeast over the Memorial Day weekend. Record-breaking temperatures of 15 to as much as 25 degrees above normal are possible in spots.

As I noted yesterday, much of the country has also been unusually dry, as depicted by streamflow, soil moisture, and drought indicator maps. The most recent U.S. drought monitor has picked up on this trend and currently lists 62.32% of the contiguous U.S. as unusually dry or in drought. This could pose problems as we head into the summer in the form of water restrictions and poor crop and field conditions.
Funny you should mention this; the Capital Weather Gang over at the Washington Post had an article today detailing how this spring has been by far the warmest ever recorded there (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weath er-gang/post/the-warmest-spring-on-record-in-dc--a gain/2012/05/24/gJQATW7TnU_blog.html)

FWIW, record daily highs have outnumbered record daily lows this year by 17,475 to 1,448, or better than 12 to 1. That's pretty impressive with nearly five months already passed.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13744
Quoting weatherh98:


Yea you can't have had a positive PDO and the get a negative PDO and call that normal because it's a pretty substantial climate change


The PDO is generally not considered an example of climate change.
Instead, it would be better referred to as internal variability because it is related to the movement of heat through various earth systems instead of a changing amount of total heat energy.
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Quoting FSUstormnut:
For some good news, this storm will bring well welcomed rain to north and eventually northwest florida.
Perfect scenario setting up for some relief.


It looks like this storm will track right over the hardest hit drought areas.

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845


whoo hoo 40% at 2 p.m.
Link to NHC Discussion
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


For the moment yes but 94L is expected to continue to grow and get shoved back west or WSW toward N FL or maybe even C FL. I would say anybody from Cape Canaveral up to Brunswick need to watch this closely.


You checked water vapor in GOM? it's a desert out there
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
For some good news, this storm will bring well welcomed rain to north and eventually northwest florida.
Perfect scenario setting up for some relief.
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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241735
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STILL INTENSIFYING...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EN ROUTE
TO INVESTIGATE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 106.5W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE NEAR OR
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BUD IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF
MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32721
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
looks like we will be clearing out in a few hours in south florida... drier days ahead...
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
236. Gorty
What is a map I can look at to see the different pressures?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting nola70119:
If development of lows in that area becomes systemic this summer we could have an interesting home-grown season.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Also note that Subtropical Storms are less affected by shear.


yep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Quoting RitaEvac:
Florida not gonna get rain, on dry side, most of rain is over water and wasting energy




Palm Beach Gardens has received nearly an 1" of rain in the last hour as has much of South East FL.
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Kind of difficult to "see" the center of the 94L low pressure area by looking at the hi-res loops. It's moving pretty fast at the moment and while the 1:00 PM NHC statement said that the low is "CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.", arguably, it looks to me like the center of the low (not the same as a center of circulation) has traversed across the lower Everglades and will be emerging off of the coast of South Florida later today.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



What is this showing?


An anomalously strong cold front pushing as far south as the NW Caribbean and stalling which this time of year is an excellent recipe for tropical activity(especially with an Upper Lever Ridge in the vicinity of Pueto Rico/Hispaniola) if/when it gets detached from the said frontal boundary.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
some of you guys need too stop downcasting 94L and look at the fac comeing in play here



94L is doing better its up too 40% it has a good ch of becomeing a STS overe the weekend may be late on friday wind shear is forcast TOO lower



Also note that Subtropical Storms are less affected by shear.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
If development of lows in that area becomes systemic this summer we could have an interesting home-grown season.
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Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for HurricaneBud for 24May12pmGMT:
14.7n107.6w has been re-evaluated&altered
14.6n107.5w, 15.3n106.9w are now the 2 most recent positions

Its most recent ATCF position was 15.3n106.9w
Its vector had changed from NNEast at ~7.2mph(11.7k/h) to NEast at ~10.5mph(16.8k/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from ~75knots(86mph)139k/h to ~90knots(104mph)167k/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 980millibars to 970millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Bud's path... ZLO is Manzanillo
LZC is LazaroCardenas . ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo . ACA is Acapulco

The easternmost connected dot is where TropicalDepressionBud became TropicalStormBud
The next dot to the northwest on that kinked line is where TSBud became HurricaneBud
The southwesyernmost dot on the longest line-segment was H.Bud's most recent position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Bud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline of a continent or an inhabited island
On 24May12pmGMT, H.Bud was headed toward passing over Tecoman in ~24hours from now

Copy&paste zlo, lzc, zih, aca, 10.2n102.6w, 10.8n103.6w, 11.7n104.6w-12.6n105.6w, 12.9n106.6w, 13.1n107.5w, 13.6n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w-14.6n107.5w, 14.6n107.5w-15.3n106.9w, 14.6n107.5w-18.78n103.84w into the GreatCircleMapper.
For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 10.2n102.6w and the first 14.0n107.7w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 14.0n107.7w,
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a "copy&paste"able copy of what generated my map.)
The previous mapping for comparison.
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227. unf97
Quoting StormTracker2K:


For the moment yes but 94L is expected to continue to grow and get shoved back west or WSW toward N FL or maybe even C FL. I would say anybody from Cape Canaveral up to Brunswick need to watch this closely.


Totally agree!
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Good morning all.....Thanks Dr. Masters. 94L is doing much better today...it's now up to 40%
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Quoting Tazmanian:



but its not stoping 94L it seems
Yeah I edited my post to show lower shear coming down from the East Coast into the Atlantic.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting LargoFl:
we sure can use it here ST..


Yup, forecast looks very wet across C & N FL as the storm may stall in the NE Gulf. That could set up a classic flood situation for the west coast from Tampa up to the Big Bend of FL.

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
WV-Loop shows ULL in the Central GOM after that you can see the ridge building in over the Central US. but look at the lower shear over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Wind Shear continues to be streaming fast from the west.



wind shear will blow past 94L.
As the NHC says, conditions will become more favorable as time goes on.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
WV-Loop shows ULL in the Central GOM after that you can see the ridge building in over the Central US.

Wind Shear continues to be streaming fast from the west.




but its not stoping 94L it seems
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
WV-Loop shows ULL in the Central GOM after that you can see the ridge building in over the Central US. but look at the lower shear over the Mid-Atlantic states.

Wind Shear continues to be streaming fast from the west.

Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This systems looks like it is going to dump lots of rain across FL over the next week or so.

we sure can use it here ST..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
some of you guys need too stop downcasting 94L and look at the fac comeing in play here



94L is doing better its up too 40% it has a good ch of becomeing a STS overe the weekend may be late on friday wind shear is forcast TOO lower
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439
anyone have rainfall totals for the bahamas>
I cannot find them.
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Quoting ClimateChange:
This spring will become the warmest on record for the contiguous United States. The current warmest spring occurred in 1910 with a mean temperature of 55.1F nationally. For March 1 through April 30, this spring averaged about 53.45F, compared to 52.65F in 1910. May 1910 was cooler than normal, whereas this month has been much warmer than normal and should rank among the top five warmest nationally. For the meteorological spring, then, this year should easily surpass the existing record by more than 1 degree Fahrenheit.

Another globally-warmed pocket of air moving is currently centered over the middle of the country today and will spread northeast over the Memorial Day weekend. Record-breaking temperatures of 15 to as much as 25 degrees above normal are possible in spots.

As I noted yesterday, much of the country has also been unusually dry, as depicted by streamflow, soil moisture, and drought indicator maps. The most recent U.S. drought monitor has picked up on this trend and currently lists 62.32% of the contiguous U.S. as unusually dry or in drought. This could pose problems as we head into the summer in the form of water restrictions and poor crop and field conditions.
i was reading up on Chaco canyon and the old ones and why they vacated the whole area..most think it was because of a 50..note..50 year Drought...if it happened once surely it can happen anywhere..can you imagine..a 50 year drought..geez
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41845
The wind map shows a little swirl in S Florida.

Don't forget that you can zoom in.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Florida not gonna get rain, on dry side, most of rain is over water and wasting energy



For the moment yes but 94L is expected to continue to grow and get shoved back west or WSW toward N FL or maybe even C FL. I would say anybody from Cape Canaveral up to Brunswick need to watch this closely.
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Quoting BigTuna:
In this morning's satellite pic of Bud linked in Dr. Masters' post, along the northern edge of the main convection there is an arc of striated clouds generally pointing in the direction of the eye. They look like tank tracks across the Pacific. Would someone mind explaining what mechanics are in play to cause that pattern? (gotta run but will check back, thanks in advance)

Nobody, really? Okay the best answer I've gotten elsewhere is that they may be forming in the shear at the inflow/outflow boundary layer.
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LLC is still just south of the keys. MLC visible in radar to the ENE due to heavy shear.



Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Florida not gonna get rain, on dry side, most of rain is over water and wasting energy

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9680
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



What is this showing?
I will post in a little bit.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
By the way Beryl does sound like she would be a "Big" lady.


no just a mean one.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This systems looks like it is going to dump lots of rain across FL over the next week or so.



We could use a good soaking in Orlando. Can live with out the sink holes that will surely follow.
Link

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By the way Beryl does sound like she would be a "Big" lady.
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Beryl could be a large system once she gets going.

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Quoting Tazmanian:




that will give else are 2nd name storm of the season and will be this about the same # with the E pac
Yup it would be 2 to 2
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Quoting Jrrtrollkien:


Shear is too high...




shear will be falling
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115439

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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