94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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LOL Cosmic.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24389
301. wunderkidcayman
6:36 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
hey guys just noticed shear has dropped alot in the W caribbean plus a Tropical Wave is about to enter the caribbean I think we may get another spark of tropical development in the W caribbean by next week and the GFS is also showing some of that spark in the area as a low pressue area seem we may see a TD or TS as well
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12151
300. VAbeachhurricanes
6:36 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Excellent post, RitaEvac. We are expected to get some great beach going weather this weekend and we always seem to lose a few that venture into the waters and the rip currents get them. Usually it is the kids that quickly get into trouble and then the adults drown too while trying to save the kids.


I sometimes think that they put those up even if its the same as usual just because of the amount of people that will be at the beach for the holiday.
Member Since: September 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6598
299. Neapolitan
6:36 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Hmmm...

AL, 94, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 253N, 804W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13554
298. Patrap
6:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

Pic from a FB post,as it's underway.

Space shuttle replica sets sail for Houston

The high-fidelity space shuttle mockup, which was known as "Explorer" for the 18 years it was displayed at NASA's Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex in Florida, will sail into Houston's Clear Lake on Friday, June 1.

A three-day public "Shuttlebration" is planned to mark the replica's arrival, which will build up to the shuttle's delivery to Space Center Houston, the visitor center for NASA's Johnson Space Center. Once there, the mockup will be on display outdoors, where it will offer guests the opportunity to tour the shuttle, both inside and out.

The replica will eventually become the star attraction of a new educational exhibition themed around the now-retired space shuttle program. In Florida, its departure cleared the way for the arrival of the real space shuttle Atlantis, which will open for display at the Kennedy Space Center Visitor Complex in the summer of 2013.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
297. CosmicEvents
6:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting pottery:

I think KMan must be waxing his clubs for this w/e.
Or whatever it is they do.....
lol..well, you don't wax your clubs. Not unless you want the club to fly down the fairway like the ball. You do clean your balls.
.
And in South Florida, the rain has stopped and light wind.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5608
296. hurricanehunter27
6:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Btw we have a moderate risk for severe weather today.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
295. LargoFl
6:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
......................this Bud's for you or so they used to say
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
294. Some1Has2BtheRookie
6:34 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:

RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT TODAY AND ON
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1031 AM CDT Thu May 24 2012

... Elevated Risk Of Rip Currents At The Beaches Today And On
Through The Memorial Day Weekend...

.Moderate To Strong Onshore Winds And Waves Will Result In An
Elevated Risk Of Rip Currents Along The Upper Texas Coast Today
And On Through The Memorial Day Weekend.




Excellent post, RitaEvac. We are expected to get some great beach going weather this weekend and we always seem to lose a few that venture into the waters and the rip currents get them. Usually it is the kids that quickly get into trouble and then the adults drown too while trying to save the kids.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4745
293. BDAwx
6:33 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Anything from recon yet?
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 526
292. Tazmanian
6:33 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
and here it is found it on page 8


524. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 5:15 PM PDT on May 23, 2012 +24
Hello Bloggers!

Just a friendly reminder to stay on topic while commenting in Dr. Masters' blog. Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only.

For anyone who needs a review, I am including links to the Community Standards and the Rules of the Road, which includes information on what to expect if you do not follow the rules.

Thank you in advance for respecting Dr. Masters and your fellow weather enthusiasts!

BlogAdmin
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
291. pottery
6:33 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
yes bone dry for sure

I think KMan must be waxing his clubs for this w/e.
Or whatever it is they do.....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24389
290. dearmas
6:32 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
We need rain so bad here in Wesley Chapel Fl (30 mins from Tampa)
Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 121
289. Patrap
6:31 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting txjac:


I get he dry air in this chart (I think) however what does the does blue and black mean?

Thanks


The Blue Key is the -24C areas usually along the shear Boundaries I believe.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
288. LargoFl
6:31 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
287. LargoFl
6:30 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting pottery:

...or lack of.
yes bone dry for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
286. RitaEvac
6:29 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Looks like a giant black sword into Florida, as if saying "think you're gonna get rain? not on my watch"

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
285. pottery
6:29 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
............................Water Vapor

...or lack of.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24389
284. Tazmanian
6:29 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting tropicfreak:


Wunderadmin did come on here yesterday reminding us that we needed to stay on topic. This is a tropical weather blog.



yes and am trying too find that in the other blog and when i do i will post it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
283. LargoFl
6:27 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
............................Water Vapor
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
282. hurricanehunter27
6:27 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Bud is really starting to intensify. Eye is starting to shrink from overshooting convection.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
280. stillwaiting
6:26 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
94l's convection being enhanced by ul divergence from that ull in the gom,sheer is just to high atm.
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
279. tropicfreak
6:25 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Has this been posted here yet?

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Yes it has.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
278. GTcooliebai
6:25 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If this is a 110MPH hurricane, I will eat my shorts. I have seen less organized Category Fours...

And I agree with the 40% on 94L, good call by the NHC.
I snorted when you said you would eat your shorts. Remember the HWRF model I posted the other day predicted Bud to get up to a category 3? Doesn't seem unrealistic now.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
277. RitaEvac
6:25 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT TODAY AND ON
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1031 AM CDT Thu May 24 2012

... Elevated Risk Of Rip Currents At The Beaches Today And On
Through The Memorial Day Weekend...

.Moderate To Strong Onshore Winds And Waves Will Result In An
Elevated Risk Of Rip Currents Along The Upper Texas Coast Today
And On Through The Memorial Day Weekend.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
276. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:25 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Has this been posted here yet?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT shtml/241654.shtml

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1255 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY...HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH AND WIND
GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
OVER WATER. CURRENTLY...THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS DISORGANIZED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
275. HurrMichaelOrl
6:24 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I don't know about N FL but the mets here in orlando are really watching what could be Beryl in 36 hours.


Are they discussing the possibility of significant rains from this system at some point over the next few days? It currently appears that all the action will stay well east of Central Florida and the computer models are looking slightly less certain of it turning back west and making it to the coast. I hope we get some good rain out of this.

Even the rain in SE Florida looks to be ending shortly as the rain/storms head NNE.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1129
274. tropicfreak
6:23 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's real world son, nothing to remove or hide about it, it's what's going on in this world


Wunderadmin did come on here yesterday reminding us that we needed to stay on topic. This is a tropical weather blog.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
273. icmoore
6:23 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
I appreciate all the info. I am in Madeira Beach and my husband is currently in Melrose (about 25 miles north and east of Gainesville. Thanks again.
Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4146
272. txjac
6:23 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Patrap:


I get he dry air in this chart (I think) however what does the does blue and black mean?

Thanks
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2538
271. RitaEvac
6:21 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
Yeah, Porn Stars and Politics go well in a Invest/Hurricane entry.


LOL


lol, it was perfect timing for him saying that's hot, and I just came across it on CNN, what can I say
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
270. tropicfreak
6:21 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


wind shear will blow past 94L.
As the NHC says, conditions will become more favorable as time goes on.


Well, so far for the most part it hasn't gotten any more favorable, in fact, it's become a bit more hostile.

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
269. LargoFl
6:21 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
268. Patrap
6:20 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128648
267. RitaEvac
6:19 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Tazmanian:




i would re move that if i where you


It's real world son, nothing to remove or hide about it, it's what's going on in this world
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
266. stormpetrol
6:18 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Today is much more blustery here than yesterday, even though 94L has moved North away from our area!
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265. Tazmanian
6:18 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


No this is hot



A photo of Bill Clinton posing with adult film actresses in Monte Carlo, Monaco is circling after one of the stars, Brooklyn Lee, posted the picture on her Twitter page Wednesday.





i would re move that if i where you that dos not have any thing too do with this blog
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115239
264. LargoFl
6:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
263. ProgressivePulse
6:17 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
000
FXUS62 KMFL 241805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

.UPDATE...HIGH WIND WARNING ISSUED AS INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WIND GUSTS AROUND 60
MPH HAVE BEEN RECORDED ALONG AND NEAR THE MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTY COASTS.
GALE WARNING ALSO REQUIRED FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHEAST.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
262. WxGeekVA
6:16 PM GMT on May 24, 2012


If this is a 110MPH hurricane, I will eat my shorts. I have seen less organized Category Fours...

And I agree with the 40% on 94L, good call by the NHC.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3475
260. LargoFl
6:14 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
.................................Texas is Baking like We are this whole weekend
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
259. stormpetrol
6:14 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7930
258. LargoFl
6:13 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I don't know about N FL but the mets here in orlando are really watching what could be Beryl in 36 hours.
same here around tampa bay
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39162
257. CaicosRetiredSailor
6:13 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
256. StormTracker2K
6:12 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
I don't know about N FL but the mets here in orlando are really watching what could be Beryl in 36 hours.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
254. weatherh98
6:10 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting RitaEvac:


You checked water vapor in GOM? it's a desert out there

Maybe drier
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253. weatherh98
6:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
The chart!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
252. weathermanwannabe
6:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Also, and looking at the water vapor loops, it is bone dry in the Gulf and over Florida at the moment as the low clears the coast and that dry air is feeding right into it at the moment.....That may hinder tropical development but maybe not sub-tropical or extra-tropical development if the low deepens. The next 72 hours will be interesting to watch.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.