94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Getting closer.


I would like to rub it into your face that I was right and won the bet. :P
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36964
Quoting GTcooliebai:
So I guess it is not rare for Major Hurricanes to form in May. Those 2 years were active in the EPAC.

On average 1 every 5 years.
But I did not know this until I READ THE BLOG ENTRY ABOVE FROM DR. MASTERS.
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Quoting Gorty:


Wow look at that! Isn't that what a TC needs high vort?
Have a defined LLC typically covered by convection for some time and 40MPH winds and you got a TS. Along with the storm being warm core.
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347. Gorty
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Wind shear backing off to the NW as well, slowly but surely.



imo wont really see development till this weekend as the low gets away from land more.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
That and it seems I just not keep track of time after school ends. There is no need to. Its awesome just having the days melt together.


Grothar used to say that about eons back before Light..

Press was still growing bac then too.
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Wind shear backing off to the NW as well, slowly but surely.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
344. Gorty
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Wow look at that! Isn't that what a TC needs high vort?
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
Time: 17:30:00Z
Coordinates: 18.6833N 99.2833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 314.7 mb (~ 9.29 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 9,350 meters (~ 30,676 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 510 meters (~ 1,673 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 273 at 24 knots (From the W at ~ 27.6 mph)
Air Temp: -27.0C (~ -16.6F)
Dew Pt: -43.1C (~ -45.6F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 24 knots (~ 27.6 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data

Plane currently over Morelos State nearing the coastal state of Guerrero, MX
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Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Last time 2 storms have formed in May was...never. There were 2 TD's in 1969 and that was the closest it ever got.
Edit: Talking about the Atlantic.
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340. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (T1202)
3:00 AM JST May 25 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Sanvu (985 hPa) located at 21.6N 139.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 23.7N 140.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 25.6N 143.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 28.8N 148.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
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Quoting gordydunnot:
It was interesting to watch the weather in Dade County today as soon as 94L started to intensify this morning, it pulled in dry air from the west.We will see as storm pulls away a little to the east if the gulf stream helps the west side.At any rate you can see what dry air does to these systems.
its probably good that happened, with the ground soaked and waterlogged, and 94's 60 mph wind gusts, tree's could start to come down, better this moves away from that area and let the sun do its drying act down there
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36964
It was interesting to watch the weather in Dade County today as soon as 94L started to intensify this morning, it pulled in dry air from the west.We will see as storm pulls away a little to the east if the gulf stream helps the west side.At any rate you can see what dry air does to these systems.
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Quoting pottery:

No, it was Alma in 2002.
So I guess it is not rare for Major Hurricanes to form in May. Those 2 years were active in the EPAC.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Up to 100kts!

EP, 02, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1065W, 100, 961, HU
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Quoting pottery:

See water vapour maps posted a little earlier.
That TropWave will need to bring along it's own liquids, and it doesn't seem to have much....

I have seen it however look at it this way it has its own moisture plus looking on the WV loop the TW is developing moisture there is still moisture in the NW caribbean plus moisture from the monsoon trough in the SW caribbean that will be no problem for it at all
shear is dropping and is expected to drop to a low 5-15kt through out the whole caribbean within the next 24 hours and beyond
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hurricane Adolph 2001

No, it was Alma in 2002.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hurricane Adolph 2001


thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114756
Quoting luvtogolf:
So NOAA is predicting 9-15 storms this year. Ok, so I'm playing golf tomorrow and I predict that I'll shoot somewhere between 72-100.

True!
May as well say "there will be several Hurricanes..."
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hurricane Adolph 2001
Jeez 2001 was 11 years ago. Feels like no time at all.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


2005, Arlene and Bret.
Yah asked the wrong question I wanted to ask May.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
when was the last major hurricane in the E PAC in may? some in tells me its been a long time
Hurricane Adolph 2001
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Getting closer.



if the NHC where too name this today it would go right too a TS or STS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114756
So NOAA is predicting 9-15 storms this year. Ok, so I'm playing golf tomorrow and I predict that I'll shoot somewhere between 72-100.
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Quoting Patrap:


I know dat feeling, I graduated in 78' so I'm as dense as chocolate ice cream usually on a Thursday, but development sharpens the ol BHG.

AKA( Brain Housing Group)
That and it seems I just not keep track of time after school ends. There is no need to. Its awesome just having the days melt together.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Hmmm...

AL, 94, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 253N, 804W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Getting closer.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31507
94 has the appearance of a screaming eagle
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Quoting pottery:

See Dr. M's post above....
ha.. yeah
we are here to Read his posts, right??
;)
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Also when was the last time there were 2 named storms in June?


2005, Arlene and Bret.
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Quoting pottery:

See Dr. M's post above....



2001 WOW it has been a long time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114756
Quoting Tazmanian:
when was the last major hurricane in the E PAC in may? some in tells me its been a long time

See Dr. M's post above....
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Out of school for a week and look what has happened to me.


I know dat feeling, I graduated in 78' so I'm as dense as chocolate ice cream usually on a Thursday, but development sharpens the ol BHG.

AKA( Brain Housing Group)
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Quoting pottery:
LOL Cosmic.


Good, I was not the only one.

The winds reported in coastal SE FL from 94L are quite impressive. Brief tropical storm conditions clearly occurred in some areas here. Kind of gusty here in the Orlando area now too actually.
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when was the last major hurricane in the E PAC in may? some in tells me its been a long time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114756


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Quoting Patrap:


Dunno as we're still in May..

: )

DUH !

:):))
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Quoting Neapolitan:
EP, 02, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1065W, 100, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 20, 20,


excellent! major hurricane
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Quoting Patrap:


Dunno as we're still in May..

: )
Out of school for a week and look what has happened to me.
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ATCF says that Bud is indeed a major:

EP, 02, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1065W, 100, 961, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 20, 20,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13461
Like I said before..I'll say it again..

I call Bud a major hrricane


94L could become Beryl
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Also when was the last time there were 2 named storms in June?


Dunno as we're still in May..

: )
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Quoting Tazmanian:



this will be the 2nd strom this year too skip TD if 94L can do a little better
Also when was the last time there were 2 named storms in May?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just noticed shear has dropped alot in the W caribbean plus a Tropical Wave is about to enter the caribbean I think we may get another spark of tropical development in the W caribbean by next week and the GFS is also showing some of that spark in the area as a low pressue area seem we may see a TD or TS as well

See water vapour maps posted a little earlier.
That TropWave will need to bring along it's own liquids, and it doesn't seem to have much....
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.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Excellent post, RitaEvac. We are expected to get some great beach going weather this weekend and we always seem to lose a few that venture into the waters and the rip currents get them. Usually it is the kids that quickly get into trouble and then the adults drown too while trying to save the kids.


Was down on Galveston Saturday and seawall was PACKED, and with the Pleasure Pier opening this weekend or next it's beginning to look like a tourist attraction down there.

Galveston's Pleasure Pier to open this weekend
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting Neapolitan:
Hmmm...

AL, 94, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 253N, 804W, 35, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 75, 75, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



this will be the 2nd strom this year too skip TD if 94L can do a little better
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114756
24hrs



72hrs

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well, so far for the most part it hasn't gotten any more favorable, in fact, it's become a bit more hostile.

It has to move away from the hostile conditions over FL. and position itself in the Atlantic just off the coast of NC & SC. Conditions there are more favorable for further development and that is where Alberto developed. Too much dry air and shear in the GOM. Once the Ridge builds in as depicted by the majority of the models the westerly winds will turn around and become more easterly pushing 94L/Beryl back to the west. Moisture will also return over FL. with the easterly flow. A west wind typically brings a drier airmass over the state.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
LOL Cosmic.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.