94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RitaEvac:


Texas Star Flyer, tallest object on pier



They better hurry. The pier did not look anything like this 2 weeks ago! Many of the rides were on the pier, but not even in place yet.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


you should stop telling the rain what to do.
It obviously doesnt listen.
lol mother nature is funny that way huh, maybe she wont hear all floridians wishing and hoping for a tropical storm and Its rains
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1117 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...KBYX RADAR SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS...30 NM TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF MARATHON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.
THIS BAND IS ONE OF TWO BROAD CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SITUATED OVER THE
UPPER KEYS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN BAHAMAS. THESE BANDS HAVE
BEEN PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN RATES AROUND THE REGION...WITH UP 2+
INCHES PER HOUR BEING REPORTED OVER SOME LAND AREAS. THE RADAR
RETURNS THAT CORRESPOND TO THESE LAND AREAS ARE NOT SEEING THE
STRONGEST OF THE RETURNS...SO IT IS BELIEVED THAT EVEN MORE
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED WHICH IS SURPRISING FOR THE RAIN RATES
GENERATED...BUT THIS MIGHT WELL HAVE BEEN EXPECTED WITH A WARM
SOUNDING THROUGHOUT...AND A VERY SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. WINDS ARE
VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
REPORTED OVER THE LOWER KEYS AND POINTS WESTWARD...AND MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER KEYS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SWIRL
IN THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY CENTERED NEARLY OVER THE SEVEN
MILE BRIDGE. WHILE THIS CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPLICITLY CLOSED ON ITS
SOUTHERN EXTENT...AND MUST ACCORDINGLY BE CHARACTERIZED AS A SHORT
WAVE...AT THIS POINT...THOUGH WARM RAIN PROCESSES ARE CLEARLY
DOMINATING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE REGION.
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am not geting any Live Recon dated


in fac they turn it off


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
Quoting LargoFl:
..................come on Rain..keep coming West..you Can do it


you should stop telling the rain what to do.
It obviously doesnt listen.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
It would be so awesome if 94l does end up becoming the second named storm in May and it is looking like that very well could happen. =D
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..................come on Rain..keep coming West..you Can do it
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395. 7544
94l now moving nne away from south fla but the ? will it make a return over the weekend and in what form ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6855
394. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
There appears to be some data that read 6.0 or 115 knots for tropical cyclone "Bud".

2012MAY24 190000 6.0 950.5/ +2.5 /115.0
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The 5PM intensity of Bud will depend on recon data though, not ATCF... That's why it's so important to get the recon information
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
313 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

NJC019-041-PAC017-077-095-242215-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0017.120524T1913Z-120524T2215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
WARREN NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-LEHIGH PA-NORTHAMPTON PA-BUCKS PA-
313 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
WESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
NORTHWESTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
LEHIGH COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 310 PM EDT...THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE OCCURRING IN
UPPER BUCKS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN HUNTERDON COUNTY. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEY WERE
HEADING TOWARD THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND WARREN COUNTY.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS
OF POOR DRAINAGE.

LAT...LON 4057 7485 4039 7544 4068 7590 4078 7570
4086 7531 4092 7523 4096 7515 4099 7513

$$

IOVINO
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
just by 1 darn mph its not major hurricane


100kts = 115mph so it's a category 3 hurricane.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
just by 1 darn mph its not major hurricane



oh yes it is
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
just by 1 darn mph its not major hurricane
weather guy said Bud will weaken as it approaches mexico
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Quoting Doppler22:
Do you think Bud will reach Cat 3 Status


I think so.

I guess 94L really will be the next Beryl, this is a very interesting non-season in the Atlantic... considering it hasn't technically started yet.
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just by 1 darn mph its not major hurricane
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Quoting Doppler22:

It has? The advisory still has it at a Cat 2



this has it at cat 3 so this will be upgrade at the next update

EP, 02, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 160N, 1065W, 100, 961, HU
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
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Quoting Tazmanian:



94L up too 40%

Wow, cool!
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Quoting Tazmanian:




it has

It has? The advisory still has it at a Cat 2
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Really overwhelming moment atm. Recon near Bud, Eurovision Semi Final 2 live and a potential storm in the ATL.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Yes. I was down there 2 weekends ago. Too much wind! I did see them bring in some equipment on the new pier. The Flagship is no more! Long live the Ferris Wheel?


Texas Star Flyer, tallest object on pier

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**THE LATEST**
(click to enlarge; all graphics can be further enlarged in Link window)


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Quoting StormTracker2K:
Euro is showing a strong TS coming ashore into NE FL on Sunday and the Euro shows TS Chris coming into FL next week from the Caribbean.





but will wind shear still be low at the time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
Quoting JeffMasters:


Two tropical storms had formed by the end of May in 1908 (one in March, one in May.)

Jeff Masters
Thank you for the info.
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Quoting Doppler22:
Do you think Bud will reach Cat 3 Status




it has
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
Euro is showing a strong TS coming ashore into NE FL on Sunday and the Euro shows TS Chris coming into FL next week from the Caribbean.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
wow look at the caribbean shear is pretty much dead if something was to come in the are like a low or a tropical wave we could see it quickly develop
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12138
Do you think Bud will reach Cat 3 Status
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372. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Your right. Seemed to have skipped over those dates. Still over 100 years sense it has happened.


Two tropical storms had formed by the end of May in 1908 (one in March, one in May.)

Jeff Masters
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Wow, Bud looks great!



What have I missed today?



94L up too 40%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
Quoting RitaEvac:


Was down on Galveston Saturday and seawall was PACKED, and with the Pleasure Pier opening this weekend or next it's beginning to look like a tourist attraction down there.

Galveston's Pleasure Pier to open this weekend


Yes. I was down there 2 weekends ago. Too much wind! I did see them bring in some equipment on the new pier. The Flagship is no more! Long live the Ferris Wheel?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Excuse me, sir, but today is not over. :p


Yeah, Tito won't win. :P Bud wont reach 140kts.

It looks nice though.



Recon will be what will determine Bud's peak intensity though.
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Quoting LargoFl:
hey stormtracker..you guys in Orlando getting some rain now? winds fron the east, hope it reaches Tampa bay with those showers
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Wow, Bud looks great!



What have I missed today?
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AL942012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery loop.

..click image for loop



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

1887 had two May tropical storms.
Your right. Seemed to have skipped over those dates. Still over 100 years sense it has happened.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I sometimes think that they put those up even if its the same as usual just because of the amount of people that will be at the beach for the holiday.


Perhaps, but very doubtful. I am quite familiar with Galveston and the surrounding waters. Galveston makes its tourist dollars largely by people getting into the water. The only thing worse for tourism than warning people out of the water is to not warn them and watch their tourist dollars drown.

I am over 6' tall and, at these times, I do not venture in over my knees due to the currents. Now, imagine a 3'-4' child trying to get into water that is up to my knees. Fortunately, I am still close to shore when I am in knee deep water. A small child, however, would be quickly carried down shore and further out from shore. Any adult trying to save them will quickly be put at risk and trying to save themselves. .... Sadly, I see this happen nearly every year.

That is just the rip currents. I have seen undertows get worse than this. These will pull you straight out from the shore instead of along the shore.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

NHC NOAA predicts near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 12 to 18 named storms, which includes 5 to 9 hurricanes, of which 2 to 5 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

Doubt that the 2012 Pacific season is near-normal...

NOAA 12-18 5-9 2-5

I think 20 10 6
since it's an el nino year...similar to 2009



it is not a el nino year yet or is it a la nina
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
I was looking back at some of the hurrican records when I found Hurricane Easy. It was a Cat 5 with 951Mb pressure. Must have been a small storm. Really small.
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Quoting yqt1001:


I would like to rub it into your face that I was right and won the bet. :P

Excuse me, sir, but today is not over. :p
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32226
looks like we need too to watch the Caribbean sea more now has wind shear is low are mode runs like the gfs or ECW showing any thing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115237
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Last time 2 storms have formed in May was...never. There were 2 TD's in 1969 and that was the closest it ever got.
Edit: Talking about the Atlantic.

1887 had two May tropical storms.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32226
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Last time 2 storms have formed in May was...never. There were 2 TD's in 1969 and that was the closest it ever got.
Edit: Talking about the Atlantic.


1887 is the one and only time 2 tropical storms have formed in May, In the Atlantic. You are correct in stating that in 1969 there were two tropical depressions that formed during the month of May.

Source. Link
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NHC NOAA predicts near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Seasonal hurricane forecasters estimate a 70 percent chance of 12 to 18 named storms, which includes 5 to 9 hurricanes, of which 2 to 5 are expected to become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

Doubt that the 2012 Pacific season is near-normal...

NOAA 12-18 5-9 2-5

I think 20 10 6
since it's an el nino year...similar to 2009

may get to the T, V, W maybe X, W and Z names
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Quoting Gorty:


imo wont really see development till this weekend as the low gets away from land more.


Possible within the next 24hrs according to the NHC.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Getting closer.


I would like to rub it into your face that I was right and won the bet. :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.