94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:


Glad to have ya aboard Mitt.

: )


Hahahaha movie quote Pat.
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Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I don't know... with advances in modern science and my high level income, it's not crazy to think I can live to be 245, maybe 300.


Glad to have ya aboard Mitt.

: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Looks like another "skip TD stage". Should they decide to classify, it would be Beryl.
but where is it? redevelop northeast?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What an awesome place to eat. They just opened a location in Jupiter, FL not too long ago, right on the inlet, I've been twice now. The Shrimp N'awlins I had last was amazing. You could go everyday for a month and eat something different every time, the menu is huge. Not the cheapest place in the world though. $15-$25 per plate with at least 80% towards the $25.


Just tell em there that you know the owner, Tillman Fertita. Galveston native
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
94L now up to 40 mph winds

AL, 94, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 253N, 804W, 35, 1008, LO


another TD skipper maybe, if convection wraps around center quickly enough.

The GFS is still calling for severe weather soon, on and off with the scenario, but fairly consistent,
weren't you going to post something about that hydrus?
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Quoting Patrap:
..from the Mayan Free Press.



"The Warming of Gaia continue's as planned"

The Transit of Venus is June 5-6.

The last one anyone alive today shall see.



I don't know... with advances in modern science and my high level income, it's not crazy to think I can live to be 245, maybe 300.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
94L now up to 40 mph winds

AL, 94, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 253N, 804W, 35, 1008, LO


Looks like another "skip TD stage". Should they decide to classify, it would be Beryl.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
434. CybrTeddy 3:51 PM EDT on May 24, 2012

If that does happen, and the circulation tightens up off-shore, Florida and Georgia will be on the dry side of the storm and we might not get the needed rain before it bolts off to the NE. Just Sayin..............


Not really as all the forecast are for this to retrograde back west due to a blocking high over the mid Atlantic.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting RitaEvac:


Bubba Gump opened today!


What an awesome place to eat. They just opened a location in Jupiter, FL not too long ago, right on the inlet, I've been twice now. The Shrimp N'awlins I had last was amazing. You could go everyday for a month and eat something different every time, the menu is huge. Not the cheapest place in the world though. $15-$25 per plate with at least 80% towards the $25.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5396
94L now showing up in the CPC forecast.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
434. CybrTeddy 3:51 PM EDT on May 24, 2012

If that does happen, and the circulation tightens up off-shore, Florida and Georgia will be on the dry side of the storm and we might not get the needed rain before it bolts off to the NE. Just Sayin..............
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9132
94L now up to 40 mph winds

AL, 94, 2012052418, , BEST, 0, 253N, 804W, 35, 1008, LO
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting Patrap:

EP022012 - Major Hurricane BUD

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Hope the hunters come back with some nice pictures while they were in the eye.
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Beryl??

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AND WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...


THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER S
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS
NOW BEING SHEARED ACROSS THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BETWEEN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE CURRENT EVOLUTION
OF THIS SYSTEM IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH TAKE
SHEARED LOW NORTHEAST NEAR GRAND BAHAMA OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC WELL EAST OF OUR COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. THOUGH GALE
FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS COASTAL SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN KEYS THIS MORNING...THE HIGHEST WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH MORE THAN
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO LAND AREAS.

THE BEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF
THE STORM...WHICH MEANS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER DEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOISTENING ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING AT LEAST
ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT THE
COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHIFTS ACTIVITY TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST IN THE EVENING. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILD AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 70S WITH A FEW MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY...INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM AND RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW
WITH ONLY ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO ONSHORE
MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH HEATING FOR HIGHS
TO REACH THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S INLAND.

FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY...AVAILABLE 12Z MODEL RUNS STILL INDICATING THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL BE
BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN THE LOW
RETROGRADING BACK TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THIS
SCENARIO HOLDS...THE AREA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE SPECIFICS THROUGH LATER
MODEL RUNS.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Bud is a really impressive hurricane.

Especially for May.
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EP022012 - Major Hurricane BUD

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
ECMWF is still very prudent on developing 94L into a Tropical Storm. 12z GFS also continues to support the development of 94L into a tropical storm, the 12z CMC now finally supports the development of 94L into a tropical storm off the US East Coast, then finally the UKMET also supports the development of 94L into a tropical cyclone.

In short, unanimous agreement at the moment of 94L developing into Tropical Storm Beryl.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Let's see them go through the deepest convection.

Bud is a really impressive hurricane.
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Let's see them go through the deepest convection.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
I think Bud is major but I am not so sure.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You may be right. I might be miss-reading the vis-loops. The sheer blowing over it may just be giving me the illusion of faster movement; I am over 50 so my eyes are not that good anymore........:)


It seems the Mlc is becoming the dominant center, the Llc is being left behind
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Was expecting more than 90 knots, but it's still impressive

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
This took a while, even Birmingham beat us:
...CODE ORANGE AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTA FOR
FRIDAY MAY 25...

This could be Beryl:


Tornado Watch
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img
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES18452012145 d6V7xP.jpg>
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Recon hit Bud and hasn't found anything over 90 knots as of now.

FULL IMAGE



Eye close-up

FULL




Maybe looks are deceiving... Or they just haven't found the strongest winds yet, which is probably more likely.
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Good afternoon everyone, 40% it is! Let's see if we can hit Beryl in May.
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Right now, recon supports a 105 mph hurricane. We'll see what the next pass brings.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32023
Sunny and Clear here in South Florida now...

Winds of 60mph were reported in Miami-Dade and Broward County...

This system was stronger than tropical storm Bonnie....
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


A few hours can make quite a difference. It was looking pretty impressive this morning in spite of the sheer (hence the 40%) but not looking as promising to me at the moment as it speeds off to the NE. Starting to wonder if the models might start to back off tomorrow on keeping it around. Guess it will depend on what is left over when it hits the ridge that is forecasted to turn it back around.


Still supposed to take a jog to the west briefly.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

VALID 12Z SUN MAY 27 2012 - 12Z THU MAY 31 2012


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/24 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS
3 AND 4...THEN SWITCHED TO THE 00Z/24 ECENS MEAN FOR DAYS 5
THROUGH 7 TO MITIGATE THE MODEL SPREAD WITH THE POSITIONS AND
INTENSITIES OF INDIVIDUAL POLAR WAVES. FOR THE TIME BEING...THE
MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON A LOCATION FOR THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST DAY 3...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN MIGHT BE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OF THE GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY DAYS 4 OR 5...THEN EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH BEARING DOWN ON THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES DAYS 6 AND 7. THE 00Z/24 ECENS
MEAN AND GEFS MEAN ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE POLAR OUTBREAK LATE IN THE PERIOD...SENDING THE PRIMARY JET
STREAM BACK SOUTH OF NORMAL EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE
WEST...PARTICULARLY THE NORTHWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
UNSETTLED...WITH THE POLAR JET ALSO DISPLACED UNSEASONABLY
EQUATOR-WARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

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Recon hit Bud and hasn't found anything over 90 knots as of now.

FULL IMAGE



Eye close-up

FULL



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting Tazmanian:




thanks but what was the point of that when i all ready said that they turn it off gussing they will turn it back on when they get closer too the storm
yeah they must not have gotten to the storm yet.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't think 94L is moving North all that fast. The center still looks to be south of the Florida peninsula. All the convection trucking North is just convection that's been blown off by the high shear. But, what do I know?


You may be right. I might be miss-reading the vis-loops. The sheer blowing over it may just be giving me the illusion of faster movement; I am over 50 so my eyes are not that good anymore........:)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9132
Bud is a very intense looking hurricane right now. I'm thinking recon might find a 115-120 mph major hurricane.
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**Tropical Update**




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Thanks Taz i see now
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I don't think 94L is moving North all that fast. The center still looks to be south of the Florida peninsula. What you see trucking Northeast is just convection that's been blown off by the high shear. But, what do I know?
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Quoting yqt1001:


100kts = 115mph so it's a category 3 hurricane.


right now its 110, so 111 is major hurricane
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
Quoting GTcooliebai:

Here ya go Taz Link




thanks but what was the point of that when i all ready said that they turn it off gussing they will turn it back on when they get closer too the storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115081
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am not geting any Live Recon dated


in fac they turn it off


Link

Here ya go Taz Link
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Quoting 7544:
94l now moving nne away from south fla but the ? will it make a return over the weekend and in what form ?


A few hours can make quite a difference. It was looking pretty impressive this morning in spite of the sheer (hence the 40%) but not looking as promising to me at the moment as it speeds off to the NE. Starting to wonder if the models might start to back off tomorrow on keeping it around. Guess it will depend on what is left over when it hits the ridge that is forecasted to turn it back around.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9132
EP022012 - Major Hurricane BUD

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128259
.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


They better hurry. The pier did not look anything like this 2 weeks ago! Many of the rides were on the pier, but not even in place yet.


Bubba Gump opened today!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9630
As 94L moves off shore, i think clouds will better wrap around the circulation and it will be named a TD
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Texas Star Flyer, tallest object on pier



They better hurry. The pier did not look anything like this 2 weeks ago! Many of the rides were on the pier, but not even in place yet.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.