94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Some have been preaching dat for years here.

: )
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I wonder if sometime down the road the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane season will be pushed back to start in May?
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Quoting WxLogic:


LOL... totally forgot. I guess my mind is in HURR season mode.

Well I don't blame you since it's pretty much been hurricane season for the last two weeks, lol... I don't think it will be too long until the start of the season is changed to May 15 like in the East Pac.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Let the wishcasting games begin...I choose the red one.



I think I would go with the CMC if the CoC develops much further NE
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Recon will head back towards the eye soon.

Data currently supports a 105 mph Category 2, so they likely won't upgrade to a major at 5PM.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There is no 8pm lol

Not until the regular season.


LOL... totally forgot. I guess my mind is in HURR season mode.
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Let the wishcasting games begin...I choose the red one.

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Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
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Quoting emcf30:


Where are you seeing that info stormtracker?
Link please. TIA





GFS

Euro

Nogaps

CMC
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Chris?! We haven't even gotten to Beryl yet.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


All the dynamical models say NE FL. Especially as both the GFS & Euro have this coming in the same area of NE FL.


What I posted was the 18z STORM SPECIFIC individual model runs.

Your talking about global models...
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Quoting WxLogic:
Most likely 50% to 60% by 8PM


There is no 8pm lol

Not until the regular season.
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...

Track record of NOAA May Predictions:

2005 Prediction: 12 to 15 tropical storms ACTUAL: 28
2006 Prediction: 13-16 ACTUAL: 10
2007 Prediction: 13-17 ACTUAL: 17
2008 Prediction: 12-16 ACTUAL: 16
2009 Prediction: 9-14 ACTUAL: 11
2010 Prediction: 14-23 ACTUAL: 19
2011 Prediction: 12-18 ACTUAL: 19


(With thanks to Pyrate Queen EmmyRose : )
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Quoting StormChaser81:



I guess the other lines moving it out to the northeast don't mean much.

How come only two model are saying St. Augustine.



All the dynamical models say NE FL. Especially as both the GFS & Euro have this coming in the same area of NE FL.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Incorrect, as 94L is predicted to retrograde into Jacksonville according to the models.

Florida would be getting much more beneficial rainfall from this than Alberto, plus 94L is much larger.
hope so
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4912
Most likely 50% to 60% later tonight (EDITED..) :P
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


i dont see anything
I dont think chris will form, nor do i think that 92L will be classsified, it was too much of a swirl with sporadic bursts of deep convection


I'll lay all my money on the table...

That chris will form
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Hmm... 40% now
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Quoting emcf30:


Where are you seeing that info stormtracker?
Link please. TIA





I think he is looking at the GFS ensambles.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Well, moisture has already increased across Central Florida, but only enough to support a few thunderstorms the next few days, however if you live near the coast like me expect the best chance for heavy showers and strong thunderstorms as the sea breeze comes across and collides over the area this weekend.


BTW, moisture values are amazingly high over the Bahamas with the trough of low pressure, PWAT values are anywhere from 2.2 to amazingly high 2.8 inches, that deep tropical moisture will move back west over Central and South Florida by Sunday and especially into next week, so don't worry there will be rain and plenty of it I think :)
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


No it's not.. Consensus is St. Augustine.



I guess the other lines moving it out to the northeast don't mean much.

How come only two model are saying St. Augustine.

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what is that bright looking thing in the sky? Never seen it before in my life.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


No it's not.. Consensus is St. Augustine.


Where are you seeing that info stormtracker?
Link please. TIA



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Quoting Levi32:
The surface low south of Miami will likely get thrown away with a new center forming to the northeast tonight and tomorrow.



What are your thoughts on track?

Northern Florida/ Southern Georgia Imo
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting StormTracker2K:


No it's not.. Consensus is St. Augustine.



???
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Some of the models are insistant the Chris will form in the NW Caribbean and move NNE toward SW FL.




When is this?
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Weak low in high shear could very easily be decoupled. The MLC is racing NE.



Surface low is being left behind.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Often in these weak sheared systems, we see the MLC become the dominate LLC. That is probably what will happen here, according to the models.


Sorry, CyberTeddy. My mouse went whacko and hit the (-) instead of the ( ). ....... Anyone have a few spare ( )'s they can loan me? Pass them on to Teddy, please.


Post #458
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4758
The surface low south of Miami will likely get thrown away, with a new center forming to the northeast tonight and tomorrow.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Some of the models are insistant the Chris will form in the NW Caribbean and move NNE toward SW FL.




i dont see anything
I dont think chris will form, nor do i think that 92L will be classsified, it was too much of a swirl with sporadic bursts of deep convection
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


What an awesome place to eat. They just opened a location in Jupiter, FL not too long ago, right on the inlet, I've been twice now. The Shrimp N'awlins I had last was amazing. You could go everyday for a month and eat something different every time, the menu is huge. Not the cheapest place in the world though. $15-$25 per plate with at least 80% towards the $25.


I'll be getting the $15 plate, as I don't believe in anything costing more than that for food...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
18z suite

Red line is the consensus



No it's not.. Consensus is St. Augustine.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll probably see Code Red for 94L tomorrow.

Having to raise my chances again.

I believe it has an 80% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and a ~100 chance of developing in its lifetime.


I'd still watch that shear and dry air. Also, the thing needs to get its LLC established before anything can REALLY take place.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is likely going to go down as our THIRD tropical storm before June 1 after this season is over. I truly believe that 92L will be classified as a tropical cyclone in the post-season.

That would break a record.


Some of the models are insistant the Chris will form in the NW Caribbean and move NNE toward SW FL.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Regardless of where it is, 94L is sitting in 60-70kts of shear ATM.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
18z model suite

Red line is the consensus

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We'll probably see Code Red for 94L tomorrow.

Having to raise my chances again.

I believe it has an 80% chance of developing in the next 48 hours, and a ~100 chance of developing in its lifetime.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
434. CybrTeddy 3:51 PM EDT on May 24, 2012

If that does happen, and the circulation tightens up off-shore, Florida and Georgia will be on the dry side of the storm and we might not get the needed rain before it bolts off to the NE. Just Sayin..............


Incorrect, as 94L is predicted to retrograde into Jacksonville according to the models.

Florida would be getting much more beneficial rainfall from this than Alberto, plus 94L is much larger.
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Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Weak low in high shear could very easily be decoupled. The MLC is racing NE.



Often in these weak sheared systems, we see the MLC become the dominate LLC. That is probably what will happen here, according to the models.
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This is likely going to go down as our THIRD tropical storm before June 1 after this season is over. I truly believe that 92L will be classified as a tropical cyclone in the post-season.

That would break a record.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32558
94L is taking 60 knots of shear like a champ! Well, considering it's still 60 knots.
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Weak low in high shear could very easily be decoupled. The MLC is racing NE.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5452
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453. wxmod
Quoting RitaEvac:


What's the coordinates on that? looks like an island about to rise above the surface


About -34.0,47.5

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Quoting Patrap:


Glad to have ya aboard Mitt.

: )


Hahahaha movie quote Pat.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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