94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Apparently feelings were wrong.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 241256
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012/

HAVE A
DEEP-SEEDED FEELING THAT S FLA WILL FALL SUBSIDENCE AGAIN TODAY...
LIMITING CONVECTION. WITH SW STEERING WINDS ALOFT...SUNSHINE WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SOME ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR
OF S FLA TODAY WHICH WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.


LOL!!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Warm anomalies seem to have gained momentum across the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past week:

May 24, 2012 Anomalies

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Quoting Patrap:
The Atlantic Hurricane Season needs to Begin May 15 as in the E. Pac. as it has begun early for many a year now.



Just had a quick count - in the last 13 hurricane seasons since 2000 (including this season), there have been 5 seasons (2003, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2012) in which a named storm has formed before June 1st. This includes 4 out of the last 6, and of course there is a reasonable possibility of having two this season.
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well we no longer have LA nina
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Final La Niņa Advisory
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
9-15. That's...quite a range
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32836
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOAA


Given the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts and possible competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2012:


9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.


Link
Wow, really going out on a limb there, aren't they? ;-) Anywhere from 9/4/1/65 to 15/8/3/140? That's a centerline of 12/6/2/102. The average from 1950 through 2011 is 10.7/6.3/2.7/102.6, so to summarize: right down the middle, with an ACE between tepid and hyperactive. (Or to be more precise, slightly more TSs than normal, but slightly fewer hurricanes and majors.)

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Quoting Patrap:
The Atlantic Hurricane Season needs to Begin May 15 as in the E. Pac. as it has begun early for many a year now.



I agree with you there. One could even argue a May 1st start date for both.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOAA


Given the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts and possible competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2012:


9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.


Link


Why not just say:

1-25 Named Storms
1-15 Hurricanes
1-5 Major Hurricanes

It's hard to believe that at this point with models and historical data that the NOAA can't narrow their prediction down further. 65-140% of median ACE? That is a joke.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been saying for a while that our part of the world seems to be a month or two ahead of climatology. Back in March, a lot of us were getting temps and weather we would normally get in April or May. The same thing happened in April. Now in May, it seems like the tropics are a month or two ahead of schedule as well, assuming we get our B storm this week/weekend.


It's not though, it really isn't. The large-scale circulation over the Atlantic is exactly as it should be for the month of May. Alberto and the possible development from 94L barely mean anything regarding the tropical circulation cell because they are cold-core transitions to warm-core, 94L less so than Alberto, but still a transition storm.

The reason they exist is because of the big eastern U.S. ridge which, yes, provided the warm winter and spring, and now is allowing upper disturbances to get blocked to the south over the waters off the SE United States, providing early incubation regions for storms like Alberto and 94L. The big eastern ridge is largely due to the negative PDO that has been developing, ushering in a pattern that we are not used to because it has not happened on the decadal scale since the 1970s.
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Quoting Patrap:
AL942012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Intresting...
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOAA


Given the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts and possible competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2012:


9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.


Link


65 to 140, lol, a bloke in the street could forcast that !
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AL942012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
@ Dr. Masters, I'm in Exceptional Drought which is worse than Severe Drought.


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Quoting ILwthrfan:
Today will be entertaining to say the least.  It does look so much better than it did yesterday, but it has a very long road to haul to get to any type of named status.  You can see the dry air already eating at its NW side.



IMO, This looks like a sheared tropical depression, winds are enough to support it.

I'm not a wish caster, just saying what I'm seeing.
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Patrap i agreen
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UK Met Office seasonal forecast'

Link
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"As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina." -- Dr. Masters
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The Atlantic Hurricane Season needs to Begin May 15 as in the E. Pac. as it has begun early for many a year now.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
Quoting MississippiWx:
I've been saying for a while that our part of the world seems to be a month or two ahead of climatology. Back in March, a lot of us were getting temps and weather we would normally get in April or May. The same thing happened in April. Now in May, it seems like the tropics are a month or two ahead of schedule as well, assuming we get our B storm this week/weekend.


Excellent point.
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Thanks doc.

I'm at school on my phone so correct me when autocorrect takes over.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32836
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOAA


Given the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts and possible competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2012:


9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.


Link


Always on top of things, thanks.

Mine is 12-14, 6-7, 3-4
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Apparently feelings were wrong.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 241256
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012/

HAVE A
DEEP-SEEDED FEELING THAT S FLA WILL FALL SUBSIDENCE AGAIN TODAY...
LIMITING CONVECTION. WITH SW STEERING WINDS ALOFT...SUNSHINE WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SOME ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR
OF S FLA TODAY WHICH WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.
I would think judging by the radar nobody is going to get much North of a SW to NE line crossing through Lake Okeechobee 
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NOAA


Given the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts and possible competing factors, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during 2012:


9-15 Named Storms,
4-8 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes
An Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median.


Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Apparently feelings were wrong.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 241256
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012/

HAVE A
DEEP-SEEDED FEELING THAT S FLA WILL FALL SUBSIDENCE AGAIN TODAY...
LIMITING CONVECTION. WITH SW STEERING WINDS ALOFT...SUNSHINE WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SOME ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR
OF S FLA TODAY WHICH WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Today will be entertaining to say the least.  It does look so much better than it did yesterday, but it has a very long road to haul to get to any type of named status.  You can see the dry air already eating at its NW side.
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The circulation of 94L is still elongated southwest to northeast because of the southwesterly shear. It's still going to take a couple of days for it to consolidate.

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24. 7544
hmm by looking at radar looks like this whole mess called 94l is heading more west than expected imo and right over so fla at this hour more to come latter
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I've been saying for a while that our part of the world seems to be a month or two ahead of climatology. Back in March, a lot of us were getting temps and weather we would normally get in April or May. The same thing happened in April. Now in May, it seems like the tropics are a month or two ahead of schedule as well, assuming we get our B storm this week/weekend.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Seems to be spinning up rather quickly as well. Pretty clear to see the location now on visible.


I agree, Convection appears to be wrapping around, it's no longer so elongated.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Seems to be spinning up rather quickly as well. Pretty clear to see the location now on visible.


30kts winds being reported just NE of the center. It's labeled as a Marine Warning.
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EP022012 - Hurricane BUD

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129853
GHCC Loop
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Thanks Jeff...
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Quoting TXCWC:
I see ALL major models from 0z run are now onboard for SE Coast development. B Storm before June...wow. Nice start to a "average to below average" season I'd say.


Could just be unrelated anomalies to the overall activity, but at any rate it would inflate the total number by two. I suspect we'll see very slight increases in the predictions from NOAA and CSU.

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Seems to be spinning up rather quickly as well. Pretty clear to see the location now on visible.
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Thanks Doc. I am in NE Florida right on the coast and will give weather observation updates over the weekend, especially for anyone curious about surfing conditions like myself. Hoping for some rain and also some offshore winds.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Just to the left of the southern most deep convection.



Agreed
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Thanks for the update.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Looks about right, looking at steering patterns and the ridge.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:
I said the circulation is SouthWest of Key Largo, other say it's North of Key West. Which is right, and which one is wrong.



Just to the left of the southern most deep convection.

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I said the circulation is SouthWest of Key Largo, other say it's North of Key West. Which is right, and which one is wrong.
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Maybe I should have went to FL instead of MO to chase a Storm :o) But anyway we are heading towards Northwest MO and Northeast Kansas today to chase that Storm..... I hope to get some great pictures..... Wish us Luck




Taco :o)
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Thank you
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I see ALL major models from 0z run are now onboard for SE Coast development. B Storm before June...wow. Nice start to a "average to below average" season I'd say.
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Thanks for the update Dr. Masters
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Thank you...Models did a good job with Bud.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22650
Any llc with 94l appears to be just south of everglades national park atm
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Georgia/ North Florida seems to be the consensus.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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