94L may develop this weekend; Hurricane Bud intensifies near Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) over South Florida, Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Western Caribbean is bringing gusty winds heavy rains to the region, and is headed north-northeast along the east coast of Florida. Miami is under an areal flood watch today for rains of 1 - 3 inches, and rains in excess of one inch have already fallen over Key Largo today. The disturbance is generating some impressive winds this morning along the Southeast Florida coast--Fowey Rocks recorded sustained southeast winds of 33 mph at 10am EDT, and Molasses Reef on Key Largo had 31 mph sustained winds. The disturbance is under a very high 40 - 50 knots of wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis, making development very unlikely today. As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina. NHC is giving 94L a 20% chance of developing by Saturday morning. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build in over the weekend off the East Coast, which will force 94L to the southwest back towards the coast. Heavy rains from 94L are likely to begin affecting coastal South Carolina, Georgia, and Northern Florida on Saturday and Sunday. If these rains do materialize, they would be welcome, considering the moderate to severe drought conditions in the area.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of heavy rains from Invest 94L affecting Southeast Florida.

Hurricane Bud heads towards Mexico
Hurricane Bud finally took advantage of its favorable environment of low wind shear and warm ocean temperatures and became a Category 2 hurricane this morning. Recent satellite loops show a well-organized storm with a prominent eye, cold eyewall cloud tops, and good low-level spiral banding. It is possible that Bud could attain Category 3 status later today. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Bud this afternoon to gauge Bud's strength. Hurricanes are uncommon in the Eastern Pacific in May; there have been just twelve since record keeping began in 1949--an average of one May hurricane every five years. The earliest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Alma of 1990, which became a hurricane on May 15. There have been only two major Category 3 or stronger May hurricanes. Here is a list of the twelve May hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific:

Hurricane Bud of 2012
Hurricane Adrian of 2005
Hurricane Alma of 2002 (major)
Hurricane Adolph of 2001 (major)
Hurricane Aletta of 2000
Hurricane Alma of 1990
Hurricane Agatha of 1986
Hurricane Adolph of 1983
Hurricane Aletta of 1978
Hurricane Agatha of 1971
Hurricane Adelle of 1970
Unnamed Hurricane of 1956


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Forecast for Bud
Bud will continue towards the coast of Mexico the next two days, pulled northwards by a trough of low pressure moving across the U.S. This trough will lift out and a ridge of high pressure will build in its place, and most of the computer models predict Bud will stall just offshore--or get pulled apart so that its low level center stays offshore, and its mid-level center moves inland. NHC is currently basing its track forecast on the ECMWF and GFS models, which were the two best performing models in both 2010 and 2011. An outer spiral band of Bud is already bringing a few heavy rain showers to the coast of Mexico near Manzanillo, and rains will increase in intensity on Friday and Saturday. The hurricane is expected to encounter more hostile condition--dry air, cooler SSTs, and higher wind shear--that will weaken the storm on Friday and Saturday. This should decrease the winds enough so that heavy rain will be the main threat from Bud. The coast where Bud is headed towards is very mountainous, and flash floods and dangerous mudslides will be a concern there. The region was not under drought conditions as of the end of April, but a number of wildfires are currently burning in the area, so Bud's rains may also do some good, by extinguishing these fires.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 7544:
we know it cant get too far north with the big high forcing it back to the wsw the question is if it did develope how far north it gets before making the west trip anyone wana take a shot at it



South Carolina, then it heads SW into Georgia/ North Florida, before the ridge gives way, and it exits over south Carolina and north Carolina.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
30% chance of rain for West Palm Beach today?...



NWS at least has been pretty off base the past couple days, lol. Not a perfect science however. Just seems mom nature was playing tricks doing exactly the opposite of the forecast.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 951 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012/

UPDATE...CHALLENGING FORECAST. LOCAL AREA HAS COME UNDER
SUBSIDENCE TODAY AS EVIDENCED BY LITTLE CONVECTION.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5578
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This stall in the NE Gulf could be interesting as well.




A 50 mph Tropical Storm making landfall in Georgia/ North Florida is definitely possible.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
99. 7544
we know it cant get too far north with the big high forcing it back to the wsw the question is if it did develope how far north it gets before making the west trip anyone wana take a shot at it
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Agreed. I have been lightly watering the pecan trees to help keep the soil from drying out around them. The storm that hit Winnie the other night did not make it as far west as me. Baytown caught some decent showers and I am only 5 miles west from there.


Was watching that thunderhead near Winnie from backyard that evening.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9769
I am looking at the hi-rez visible loops off the Keys and Florida and I would not call it a viable center of circulation (only an invest at this point). Something looks like it wants to get going just off of Key Largo but it is too close to land and the sheer is still a bit too high. I would imagine the really warm waters of the Gulf Stream are giving it plenty of warm fuel but the sheer is not cooperating yet.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. On the latest vorticity map it looks like 94L is leaving a piece of energy behind in the Caribbean. I don't know if there is any circulation with this but is there any chance something could develop from this ?


GFS & even the Euro have been hinting that this could become Chris before June 1st. Going to be an interesting week to say the least.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting Tazmanian:




your late
lol ok
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Africa dust way into Atlantic today. Dust storms in the Sahara are increasing. MODIS satellite photo. If there is a hurricane that forms here, which is doubtful, it will be raining mud.

Member Since: October 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1817
Quoting StormTracker2K:
This stall in the NE Gulf could be interesting as well.

that would be good news as it would keep dumping it rain on florida
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Getting better...

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Quoting LargoFl:
..............................we got our yellow Circle again,now up to 20%




your late
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This stall in the NE Gulf could be interesting as well.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



It's Amazing that it continues to develop in the fact of 60kt shear.


Mental Note: Subtropical Storms are less affected by shear.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5578
That same ridge which will steer 94L southwestwards towards Myrtle-Jacksonville Beach this weekend will also break-down by Monday-Tuesday. Which will enable Beryl to eventually go out to sea. So I don't think this'll penetrate far inland nor last too long there.
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
If it's this organized now just wait till Saturday.



Winds support a 30mph tropical depression.

What's your idea on track? Are the models still constant with bringing into into Northern Florida, Southern Georgia?

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Good morning. On the latest vorticity map it looks like 94L is leaving a piece of energy behind in the Caribbean. I don't know if there is any circulation with this but is there any chance something could develop from this ?
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looks close to td status as it makes landfall s fl.
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 5397
..............................we got our yellow Circle again,now up to 20%
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If it's this organized now just wait till Saturday.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:
94L is getting better organized and appears to be clipping S FL ATTM.




Center of Circulation is now west of Key Largo
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Looking like rush hour in South Florida on I-95 today is going to be a huge mess...........Leave early if you can.
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WOW


its going to be nuts this year in the E pac


12-18 named storms,
5-9 hurricanes,
2-5 major hurricanes,
An ACE range 70%-130% of the median
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
94L is getting better organized and appears to be clipping S FL ATTM.



I've been watching it, since 7am this morning. It had no rain around the center at that time. Now it continues to get better defined.

I believe it is close to tropical depression status...

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting Greenizz:


Thats what I thought yesterday morning but the local mets are now saying chance of rain going down...looks like heavy rain will stay to the north of us.......pooh


I would take their forecast with a grain of salt and let's face it some of the Tampa mets have a lot to be desired.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Not a good Beach or boating Day...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1049 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM
EXCLUDING THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF BAHAMAS
BISCAYNE BAY

* UNTIL 1245 PM EDT

* AT 1044 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS FROM 62 NM
EAST OF SEA RANCH LAKES TO 15 NM SOUTHWEST OF CONVOY POINT... FROM
62 NM EAST OF SEA RANCH LAKES TO 11 NM NORTHWEST OF BARNES SOUND...
MOVING NORTH AT 10 KNOTS
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

All of the models develop it.
ok ty..we sure could use its rains here
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Already dry here. Need rain and we're not even in drought. It's been said rains will come during the wrong times. And that's exactly what is happening.


Agreed. I have been lightly watering the pecan trees to help keep the soil from drying out around them. The storm that hit Winnie the other night did not make it as far west as me. Baytown caught some decent showers and I am only 5 miles west from there.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4935
72. 7544
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
30% chance of rain for West Palm Beach today?...




lol 94l trying to pull a fay keep your eyes open
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Quoting Chicklit:
"As 94L slides north-northeast along the coast on Friday and Saturday, wind shear is expected to decrease, and several of our reliable models predict that 94L could organize into a subtropical depression on Saturday or Sunday off the coast of North Carolina/South Carolina." -- Dr. Masters
my local weather guy says its going to slide back down into florida early next week..have to watch this carefully this weekend
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94L is getting better organized and appears to be clipping S FL ATTM.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting StormTracker2K:


It's coming this weekend as what looks like Beryl will cross the state and may stall in the NE Gulf for a time.


Thats what I thought yesterday morning but the local mets are now saying chance of rain going down...looks like heavy rain will stay to the north of us.......pooh
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Quoting Levi32:


It's not though, it really isn't. The large-scale circulation over the Atlantic is exactly as it should be for the month of May. Alberto and the possible development from 94L barely mean anything regarding the tropical circulation cell because they are cold-core transitions to warm-core, 94L less so than Alberto, but still a transition storm.

The reason they exist is because of the big eastern U.S. ridge which, yes, provided the warm winter and spring, and now is allowing upper disturbances to get blocked to the south over the waters off the SE United States, providing early incubation regions for storms like Alberto and 94L. The big eastern ridge is largely due to the negative PDO that has been developing, ushering in a pattern that we are not used to because it has not happened on the decadal scale since the 1970s.


Oh, I know. I'm not saying that the climate has suddenly shifted that much. Just one of those "it feels like it has" statements. I definitely agree on Alberto and 94L. They are just a result of the pattern across Eastern North America.
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Quoting Greenizz:
OMG...what is it going to take for the Tampa area to get rain????


I hear ya. We had that one good day of rain about 2 weeks ago. With the exception of a few scattered storms, it has been dry.
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30% chance of rain for West Palm Beach today?...

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Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks, question..when that thing in the carribean moves off the east coast and becomes a low..then heads back into florida, what do the models suggest it will become?..any chance it becomes a tropical storm when it gets to florida?

All of the models develop it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34093
Quoting Greenizz:
OMG...what is it going to take for the Tampa area to get rain????


It's coming this weekend as what looks like Beryl will cross the state and may stall in the NE Gulf for a time.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting carolinabelle:
Of course, this all looks to be happening on a weekend I have to travel, leaving Chas. SC area early Saturday for mid-Florida coast and coming back on Monday, any chance we can drive around it, lol?!?


Your going to go right through it. Lol
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That sure looks better than last year, RitaEvac! I hope our conditions only continue to improve, but this is Texas. Wait 15 minutes, and it will all change! Just as long as it is not a repeat of last year.


Already dry here. Need rain and we're not even in drought. It's been said rains will come during the wrong times. And that's exactly what is happening.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9769
Quoting Greenizz:
OMG...what is it going to take for the Tampa area to get rain????


You might get some when 94l is caught under the ridge and heads south west into north Florida/Georgia
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Quoting Greenizz:
OMG...what is it going to take for the Tampa area to get rain????
lower the Tampa shields..it sure is dry here huh..we need the rainy season to begin here
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Of course, this all looks to be happening on a weekend I have to travel, leaving Chas. SC area early Saturday for mid-Florida coast and coming back on Monday, any chance we can drive around it, lol?!?
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Quoting Patrap:
AL942012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery




It's Amazing that it continues to develop in the fact of 60kt shear.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
Good Morning folks, question..when that thing in the carribean moves off the east coast and becomes a low..then heads back into florida, what do the models suggest it will become?..any chance it becomes a tropical storm when it gets to florida?
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Quoting RitaEvac:


That sure looks better than last year, RitaEvac! I hope our conditions only continue to improve, but this is Texas. Wait 15 minutes, and it will all change! Just as long as it is not a repeat of last year.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4935
OMG...what is it going to take for the Tampa area to get rain????
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Quoting Patrap:
AL942012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



There's the center. Looking better today.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Thanks Dr. M. Quite an interesting start to the year on the E-Pac and Atlantic side so far. Have to see (over the long term) if these type of early season anomalous events become a more frequent event, or, just a reflection of current conditions. I will leave that question to the research papers that will be written on this season in the Journals later in the Spring of 2013................ :)
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Apparently feelings were wrong.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 241256
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012/

HAVE A
DEEP-SEEDED FEELING THAT S FLA WILL FALL SUBSIDENCE AGAIN TODAY...
LIMITING CONVECTION. WITH SW STEERING WINDS ALOFT...SUNSHINE WITH
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SOME ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE INTERIOR
OF S FLA TODAY WHICH WILL MOVE NE TODAY AND FRIDAY BUT WITH LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE LATEST GFS GUIDANCE.


LOL!!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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