Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...and the topic is?


The American Experience. English 11 course title in Fairfax County....
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3481
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is. It is an eye.


Looks like it. Can't wait for it to completely clear.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I've just completed a NEW BLOG!!!! containing my thoughts on all the tropical activity occuring right now if you're interested.
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It is. It is an eye.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33460
its so dry here,guess we are going to see more of these alerts............................URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
316 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES...

FLZ051-052-240000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0029.120523T2100Z-120524T0000Z/
HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
316 PM EDT WED MAY 23 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
HILLSBOROUGH AND POLK COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES.

* WIND...VARIABLE AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.

* HUMIDITY...20 TO 25 PERCENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&

$$
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Quoting WxGeekVA:


I am... 4 pages with 8 sources and NO DOUBLE SPACING 12pt font max....



It takes a long time, might be in for a long night...

...and the topic is?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33460
Quoting Ameister12:

Lol. Well you should probably get on it. =)


I am... 4 pages with 8 sources and NO DOUBLE SPACING 12pt font max....

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should probably start on that bud. (wink)


It takes a long time, might be in for a long night...
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3481
Quoting Patrap:
Patrap Jr. has finished with High School save for the Graduation.

Congratulations and Welcome to the Machine Son.




YAY PAT! Congrats!!!!
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Quoting K8eCane:




I think its Fay looking for Florida


lol, both painfully persistent storms.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5459
Patrap Jr. has finished with High School save for the Graduation.

Congratulations and Welcome to the Machine Son.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


The remnants of Hurricane Karen?




I think its Fay looking for Florida
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Quoting WxGeekVA:
That moment when I realize I have a huge paper due in English tomorrow and I haven't started because I've been too busy on weather blogs and chilling with my GF....


You should probably start on that bud. (wink)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33460
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Quoting WxGeekVA:
That moment when I realize I have a huge paper due in English tomorrow and I haven't started because I've been too busy on weather blogs and chilling with my GF....


Well you should probably get on it. =)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
PANICKING OMG WHAT IS THAT THING
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Quoting hurricanic:
Do any of you guys know what this strange artifact is?



The remnants of Hurricane Karen?
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5459
Well it darn sure looks like spaceships and they are headed my way
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
Do any of you guys know what this strange artifact is?

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


Of course not! Why would you evacuate based off of fake models?


Tongue firmly in cheek there.
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Quoting Grothar:


I actually didn't pick it as an analog year. I do not believe 2004 is an analog year for 2012. I just posted it because while Dr. Gray was close to the actual number, there were far more intense hurricanes that year than had been anticipated. But in all fairness they did show an above average landfall activity.


Personal opinion is that the quantity may be good, I have 12-14. I do think, as you do, that they are low on the canes and majors. My thinking is 12-14, 6-7, 3-4. I believe they are hedging their bets too much on El Nino which I don't think will be much of an influence until it's too late. Moisture and instability have returned to areas that have been lacking the past few years and that is the basis for my thinking.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5459
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will Invest 94L develop? (If so, proceed to Q2)

A. Yes
B. No

Q: What will Invest 94L peak as?

A. Subtropical/tropical Depression
B. Subtropical/tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

Q1: A
Q2: B


A and B/C
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
An eye, or is Bud tricking me again?

Looks more like an eye as deep convection has been firing in its eyewall and its likely it has been fully constructed once again.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33460
Typhoon Sanvu.



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Watching the Atlantic for New Tropical Activity

Nice to see AccuWeather is on top of things. :)

When aren't they? They are my second most trusted source for all things tropical, behind only TWC of course.
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Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know one could see pollen?


When the pine and oak pollen are flying in the spring in north Florida, you can watch little puffs of it coming out of the trees.

All the cars (and anything slow moving) are coated in yellow.
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Quoting Grothar:


No, I believe that would be a waiter or waitress from New York.
aaaahhhaaaaaaaa!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Watching the Atlantic for New Tropical Activity

Nice to see AccuWeather is on top of things. :)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33460
I have spot the surface level COC how ever the circulation is moving WSW-SW
this one was at 1715

2231 the center is displaced to the W-WSW on sat due to time

that low is moving WSW-SW
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

no he's not well not that I know unless he just move here
No. He lives in Florida . Sorry for answering on yoru behalf Grothar.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's been so lack-luster lately that I'm starting to think it runs one week in July.



Well I was talking about south Florida, in Central Florida it is shorter, June through September, so, its normal for it to be wet down there before us, like I said before, May has actually featured rather normal weather so far, and everything is on track for the rain season to arrive for the end of this month into June.

I expect great chances for rainfall around here starting Monday.
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Quoting allancalderini:
La Ceiba Honduras, and you are in Cayman islands correct?

Hes on a aeroplane, halfway between the spirit world and the deep blue sea!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We shall see what NOAA thinks of the upcoming hurricane season tomorrow.


It will be interesting to see what they have in the abstract, not only the numbers.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15303
Quoting allancalderini:
La Ceiba Honduras, and you are in Cayman islands correct?

no he's not well not that I know unless he just move here
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We shall see what NOAA thinks of the upcoming hurricane season tomorrow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33460
Quoting Grothar:


Unfortunately, we were not. Where are you, again?
La Ceiba Honduras, and you are in Cayman islands correct?
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
Quoting Grothar:


I didn't know one could see pollen?


when there is enough of it , you can.
Especially when it coats your shoes and ankles.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9764
Quoting winter123:
Pollen season has started in upstate ny. The amount of pollen on my car after work was measurable, and those white fluffy things gave the appearance that it was snowing. :)

*blows nose*

And it is HOT. (for this area in May)


I didn't know one could see pollen?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27484
454. Grothar 6:07 PM EDT on May 23, 2012

Thanks for the clarification. Headed home. See Yall Tomorrow.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9843
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will Invest 94L develop? (If so, proceed to Q2)

A. Yes
B. No

Q: What will Invest 94L peak as?

A. Subtropical/tropical Depression
B. Subtropical/tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

Q1: A
Q2: B


A and B.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15303
Pollen season has started in upstate ny. The amount of pollen on my car after work was measurable, and those white fluffy things gave the appearance that it was snowing. :)

*blows nose*

And it is HOT. (for this area in May)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting allancalderini:
Central America was really spare that year.


Unfortunately, we were not. Where are you, again?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27484
I posted this in another forum, so I'll just post it here although y'all have already gotten the main points.

Models are starting to come into better agreement on the prospects of yet another tropical storm off the southeast coastline late this week and this weekend as Invest 94L (located in the west Caribbean) combines with an upper level low pressure system that becomes "stuck" in the region due to a strong ridge of high pressure that develops across the East USA and moves east.. Due to the fact that the disturbance would be located north of the Subtropical Jet Stream, wind shear would have very little effect on whatever tried to develop. One limiting factor will be dry air, just like Alberto faced, but without the effects of strong wind shear, I doubt it will inhibit development much. Sea Surface Temperatures are still marginal because we are in May, but warm enough to sustain at least a mid to upper-grade tropical storm.

The latest Special Tropical Weather Outlook gave 94L a Low chance, ~0%, of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. I agree with this percentage.

I am giving this system a High chance, 60%, of ever developing into a tropical cyclone. If it does indeed develop, it would likely meander off the Southeast coastline until the ridge of high pressure breaks down and pulls it northeast out to sea.

Here is a noteworthy face: If this system does indeed become "Beryl", it would be the first time since 1887 in which two tropical storms formed before the official start date of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33460
Big boom of thunder outside.Nothing server.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 18873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will Invest 94L develop? (If so, proceed to Q2)

A. Yes
B. No

Q: What will Invest 94L peak as?

A. Subtropical/tropical Depression
B. Subtropical/tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

Q1: A
Q2: B

B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will Invest 94L develop? (If so, proceed to Q2)

A. Yes
B. No

Q: What will Invest 94L peak as?

A. Subtropical/tropical Depression
B. Subtropical/tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

Q1: A
Q2: B


Nope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
435. Grothar 5:41 PM EDT on May 23, 20

I know you live in Florida like I do; that particular analog year you chose (to show the blocking pattern that season I assume) is a really bad one to pick....Lol.


I actually didn't pick it as an analog year. I do not believe 2004 is an analog year for 2012. I just posted it because while Dr. Gray was close to the actual number, there were far more intense hurricanes that year than had been anticipated. But in all fairness they did show an above average landfall activity.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27484

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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