Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
for the ones that miss it early


524. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 5:15 PM PDT on May 23, 2012 24
Hello Bloggers!

Just a friendly reminder to stay on topic while commenting in Dr. Masters' blog. Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only.

For anyone who needs a review, I am including links to the Community Standards and the Rules of the Road, which includes information on what to expect if you do not follow the rules.

Thank you in advance for respecting Dr. Masters and your fellow weather enthusiasts!


Thanks for the reminder... Taz....
Interesting - Checking the Wunderblog Standards page

Link

It reads as follows:


------The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas about weather, the outdoors, and nearly everything.
Some blogs, such as Dr. Masters' Blog, have special community standards that apply only to them. For the blogs at large, as well as special or featured blogs, our Terms of Service apply. Please remain within the bounds of the Terms of Service. This document will strive to provide pointers for operating within the Wunderground community.-------------


Maybe the "Members to express their opinions and ideas about NEARLY EVERYTHING", is confusing and should be changed to specify that it "should be Weather related"



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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Is the circulation already over the Florida straights?


Yeah it looks to be south of Key Largo.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
90mph it is.
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

...BUD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting StormTracker2K:
People say hi to 94L. Looks to have a nice circulation to it.




Is the circulation already over the Florida straights?
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Waiting for the intermediate advisory..

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yep. Nearly made a 100% on both my English I and Biology I finals.


Great job!
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
90-100mph next advisory is my bet.
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People say hi to 94L. Looks to have a nice circulation to it.

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Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey buddy, how did you do on your exams. I bet you got A's right?

Yep. Nearly made a 100% on both my English I and Biology I finals.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:






Man talk about drought relief! The drought is extremely bad around the area the models show this coming ashore.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:






Hey buddy, how did you do on your exams. I bet you got A's right?
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:





DOOM!!!

JK. It actually could help Florida's drought situation quite a bit.
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Bud is a strong category 1 on its way of becoming a category 2. Very impressive and beautiful hurricane.


Also severe weather is something to watch today. 10% chance of tornadoes in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin and the SPC is considering upgrading to a moderate risk.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
407 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND


SUN-WED...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE WEEKEND HALTS THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT
OF THE LOW OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. THIS ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO
RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE FL PENINSULA SUNDAY
. FROM THIS POINT IN
THE FORECAST MORE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR AS SIGNIFICANT RUN TO
RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST WITH THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE 00Z GFS WHICH HAS
SHOWN BETTER CONSISTENCY AND HAS THE MORE PREFERRED SOLUTION OF A
WESTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE PENINSULA. IF THIS TYPE OF
TRACK HOLDS WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS THEN CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND.

THE GFS HAS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ELEVATED. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED...
AROUND 40 PERCENT. HOWEVER THESE MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS IF MODEL TRENDS HOLD. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL HOLIDAY WEEKEND SYSTEM
.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651




Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
morning guys
I see 94L is pretty much out of the caribbean and bud is a hurricane...wait...what...bud is a hurricane wow what took the NHC so long

anyway so when is the GFS or the other models forecasting 95L (the other W carib low)?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11843
Funny how 2004 was like this dryness wise across here then the tropical systems started coming and they never stopped. I remember picking up around 40" of rain from the 3 hurricanes that came thru C FL in 2004. I sure hope this isn't a repeat.
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
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Looks like C & N FL are in for a soaking according to the GFS 8 day precip accum.

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CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 975.9mb/ 82.2kt



Bud is likely approaching Category 2 status at this time. May make a run at C3 before it begins to weaken. The good news is recon will catch the system at its absolute peak this afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31917
Well it looks as I will deal with Beryl this weekend here in E C FL. Could be a strong tropical storm according to some of these models maybe even a minimal hurricane.



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Good Morning...
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Eye is now visible on Bud.
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713 CybrTeddy: Bud has a small eye, probably a Category 2 by now.

Definitely not a Cat.2 but I PLUSed ya anyways for the purty picture.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
94L weakened overnight: Pressure up 2mb, winds down to 25 kts
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Quoting Tazmanian:
for the ones that miss it early


524. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 5:15 PM PDT on May 23, 2012 +24
Hello Bloggers!

Just a friendly reminder to stay on topic while commenting in Dr. Masters' blog. Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only.

For anyone who needs a review, I am including links to the Community Standards and the Rules of the Road, which includes information on what to expect if you do not follow the rules.

Thank you in advance for respecting Dr. Masters and your fellow weather enthusiasts!
Thanks for the repeat, Taz. A lot of us have gotten used to the more relaxed situation during off season. Given the amount of traffic we had last year, I have a feeling Admin will be clamping down a bit more and a bit faster this year. IOW, I hope everybody enjoyed posting the OT pics and vids... but on Jun 1 u r likely to get into a few problems for them...

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Big storms on the way today:



WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CAPPED GIVEN PLUME OF VERY WARM AIR AT MID LEVELS STREAMING NEWD
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVERNIGHT RAIN AND
CONTINUED SLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOW 60S F AS FAR WRN WI. MLCAPE COINCIDENT WITH THE DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW MAY REACH INTO THE 500-1000 J PER KG RANGE AND...GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF FORCED ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE /DEEPENING AROUND 1MB/HR BETWEEN 18 AND 21Z PER LATEST
PROGS/...EXPECT POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS AND FAST-MOVING STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
RATHER SMALL...FROM ABOUT 19-23Z AND OVER A RELATIVELY CONFINED
REGION FROM EXTREME ERN MN INTO WRN/NWRN WI. FORECAST CONDITIONS IN
THIS TIME AND AREA APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF POSSIBLY STRONG
TORNADOES
AND/OR FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES NEAR THE LOW SUPPORT THE CURRENT
CORRIDOR OF HIGH TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND AN UPGRADE TO GREATER
PROBABILITIES/CONFIDENCE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LIGHT OF DAY AND A
CLOSE INSPECTION OF OVERNIGHT STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE


The SPC now has threat areas highlighted for Sunday and Monday.
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Wow, Hurricane Bud went from 40 mph to 85 mph in just 12 hours... Impressive.
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Here is the this morning's discussion of 94L by Crown Weather Services.

Link
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That is beautiful:

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Morning everybody.

I'm not staying long this a.m., as I want to get on the road before heavy downpours begin here. I will try to get on for a few minutes from time to time once I get to work. But it does look like when it does begin to rain here [as opposed to light drizzle] it's going to be a lollapalooza of a day....

I also notice Bud's making a bid for a real hurricane at last.... looks like an eye feature has developed per the infrared loop.

Ya'll have a good one.

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Good morning. It will be a facinating mission this afternoon to see how strong he is.

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 75
A. 24/2000Z
B. AFXXX 0102E BUD
C. 24/1415Z
D. 15.4N 107.7W
E. 24/1930Z TO 24/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

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Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for HurricaneBud for 24May6amGMT:
Bud's 24May12amGMT Position, MaximumSustainedWinds, MinimumPressure, and CycloneStatus have been re-evaluated&altered
from 14.0n107.8w : ~60knots(69mph)111k/h : 992millibars : TropicalStorm
. . . to 14.0n107.7w : ~65knots(75mph)120k/h : 987millibars : Hurricane

Its most recent (24May6amGMT) ATCF position was 14.7n107.6w
Its vector had changed from North at ~4.5mph(7.3k/h) to North at ~8.1mph(13k/h)
MaxSusWinds had increased from ~65knots(75mph)120k/h to ~75knots(86mph)139k/h
And minimum pressure had decreased from 987millibars to 980millibars

For those who like to visually track H.Bud's path... MZT is Mazatlan . PVR is PuertoVallarta
ZLO is Manzanillo . LZC is LazaroCardenas . ZIH is Ixtapa-Zihuatanejo

The easternmost connected dot is where TropicalDepressionBud became TropicalStormBud
The next dot to the northwest on that kinked line is where TSBud became HurricaneBud
The southernmost dot on the longest line-segment was H.Bud's most recent ATCF position

The longest line-segment is a straightline-projection through H.Bud's 2 most recent positions
to the coastline of a continent or an inhabited island
On 24May6amGMT, H.Bud was headed toward passing over IslaMariaMadre in ~2days7hours from now

Copy&paste ajs-26.727n113.42w, lap-23.56n110.33w, sjd, mzt, tpq, pvr, zlo, lzc, zih, 10.2n102.6w, 10.8n103.6w, 11.7n104.6w, 12.6n105.6w, 12.9n106.6w, 13.1n107.5w, 13.6n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w, 14.0n107.7w-14.7n107.6w, 14.0n107.7w-21.575n106.58w into the GreatCircleMapper.
For more complete info, replace the 'comma&space's between 10.2n102.6w and the first 14.0n107.7w with dashes, AND leave the comma&space between the first and second 14.0n107.7w,
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't leave a "copy&paste"able copy of what generated my map.)
The previous mapping for comparison.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Bud has a small eye, probably a Category 2 by now.


Bud could make it to major hurricane
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Bud has a small eye, probably a Category 2 by now.
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I think we're going to see an eye pop out of Bud within the next few hours. The latest frame seems to hint at the beginnings of the center clearing out.
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anyone else see the ecmwf-oper??
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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240857
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS
CONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE. A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE
RECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED
TO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5
AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.

BUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. AFTER THAT
TIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. AS BUD
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO
HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL
INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.

BUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER
CYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO. THE TYPICALLY
RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE
WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE IS IN
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER
THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
MEXICO. BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK
AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST
OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Bud is definitely try to build up a good eyewall as we approach Dmax.
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Quoting aspectre:
Thanks. Probably wouldna noticed the re-evaluation&alteration until after 12pmGMT


I know you love me. Everybody does.
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Thanks. Probably wouldna noticed the re-evaluation&alteration until after 12pmGMT
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Bud up to 75 kt according to ATCF.
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Blog update.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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