Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

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GFS at 72 hours:




at 96 hours:

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26130
Quoting weatherh98:


If it goes west, it hits a pocket of 80 knot windshear. nothing survives it, not even dare i say emily and her descendents

That's correct.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF confirms that Bud is indeed a Cat 2:

EP, 02, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1069W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1008, 270, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, D,


So thats 103.7 mph so its 105mph getting close to cat 3
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think El nino will maybe form to late in the season to have any real impact on it.So if el nino forms in late September the effects won't be felt until early November due to the lagging effect.
That is my guess also.. El-Nino does not have much effect on November storms. They usually form in areas where El-nino has little or no impact on them. So we could get a storm or two in November. Nino mostly affects the MDR .
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Day 3 of misery in Nassau. already 2 inches at least has fallen.
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Quoting islander101010:
if 94 makes the move west and not just stall out all of central fl. should get heavy rain the low should drag deep moisture out of the deep tropics


If it goes west, it hits a pocket of 80 knot windshear. nothing survives it, not even dare i say emily and her descendents
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
ATCF confirms that Bud is indeed a Cat 2:

EP, 02, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1069W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 1008, 270, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, BUD, D,
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if 94 makes the move west and not just stall out all of central fl. should get heavy rain the low should drag deep moisture out of the deep tropics
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Hes trucking it
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


I'm guessing there should've been a 'major' in his comment.


TA13... Explain yourself...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting weatherh98:


Weve had two?


I'm guessing there should've been a 'major' in his comment.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We are close to having the first northern hemisphere Hurricane of 2012.



Weve had two?
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493


No chance this puppy develops today or tomorrow...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
We are close to having the first northern hemisphere Hurricane of 2012.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks better than Irene ever did...


Irene never looked really good, but it did havesome really low pressure
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6493
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes I agree.More land will be affected.I mean storms will recurve..they do every season..but not like they did in 10,and 11.


Agreed.
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Quoting yqt1001:




Upper category 2 anyone?

Looks better than Irene ever did...
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
I am not complaining, that Florida will get some rain.
It just looks much tamer on other radar systems.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILL AS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/05Pilon/plnMAXw01a.gif
And the model keeps moving it farther and farther east over where you can see the storms already are.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Judging by the Ridge and past neutral years, and the current trend, I'm assuming their will be a lot of landfalls from the Carribean, the gulf coast, and the east coast.

Not that many fish storms this year, not good. Specially later, when shear will not be as high.
think your right but not sure about 94 got a ways to go
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From Crown Weather.

Tropical/Sub Tropical Storm Beryl Likely To Develop This Weekend Off Of US Southeast Coast:It is looking more and more likely that we will have Sub-Tropical or Tropical Storm Beryl located off of the Southeastern coast of the United States during the Memorial Day weekend. Should this happen, it will be the first time we have had two named tropical storms before June 1st since 1887.

Low pressure, designated Invest 94-L, was located near the south coast of Cuba this morning. Satellite imagery showed some deeper convection firing in an area between Jamaica and the south coast of Cuba, however, the convection is not organized or consolidated. Additionally, satellite loops showed that most of the convection is occurring on the eastern side of the low pressure system.

As of early this morning, wind shear values across the northern Caribbean are running between 20 and 30 knots and I do not think we will see any type of development from it until it is north of the Bahamas just off of the US Southeast coast on Friday and into Saturday.

All of the global model suite is now in agreement surrounding both the development of a sub-tropical or tropical storm this weekend off of the US Southeast coast and the track of this storm which looks to be southwestward into northeastern Florida or far southern Georgia on Monday morning. It should be pointed out that both the GFS and European model guidance are forecasting a storm that is quite a bit larger in size than Alberto. (EDIT: That's a loose statement)

The European model guidance, which is my forecast model of choice, is fairly aggressive with development of what could be Beryl. It forecasts a southwestward track this weekend and forecasts this storm to make landfall very near Saint Augustine and Palm Coast in northeast Florida on Monday morning. From there, the European model forecasts that this storm will come inland into northern Florida during the day Monday before tracking northeastward back into the Atlantic just south and east of the North Carolina coast during Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as an eastward moving frontal system picks it up.

So, my thinking is that Invest 94-L will track north-northeastward today and tonight from the south coast of Cuba and across the northwestern Bahamas. Most of the moisture and convection with this system is on the eastern side, so most of the Bahamas are in for a pretty stormy day with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms while most of the Florida peninsula should stay fairly dry, although the normal scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected across central and south Florida this afternoon.

By Friday into Saturday, I think we will see Invest 94-L spin up into a tropical entity and I suspect it will be Tropical Storm Beryl as it first tracks north and then westward just off of the Georgia coast. Tropical Storm to be Beryl is then expected to push southwestward along the Georgia coast on Sunday before coming ashore in northeastern Florida near Saint Augustine and Palm Coast on Memorial Day.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Judging by the Ridge and past neutral years, and the current trend, I'm assuming their will be a lot of landfalls from the Carribean, the gulf coast, and the east coast.

Not that many fish storms this year, not good. Specially later, when shear will not be as high.
Yes I agree.More land will be affected.I mean storms will recurve..they do every season..but not like they did in 10,and 11.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think El nino will maybe form to late in the season to have any real impact on it.So if el nino forms in late September the effects won't be felt until early November due to the lagging effect.



Judging by the Ridge and past neutral years, and the current trend, I'm assuming their will be a lot of landfalls from the Carribean, the gulf coast, and the east coast.

Not that many fish storms this year, not good. Specially later, when shear will not be as high.
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Upper category 2 anyone?
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Radar for S FL
Link
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4520
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Unusually Active. I agree, but maybe we will have a less active later part of the season.
I think El nino will maybe form to late in the season to have any real impact on it.So if el nino forms in late September the effects won't be felt until early November due to the lagging effect.
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CMC also shows a strong tropical system here off of St. Augustine.


Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Quoting islander101010:
waters plenty warm in the straights and in the bahamas



Could become a TD over the gulf stream tommorow.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Rip currents comes to mind...And i keep forgetting that its only May.Feels so much like late June.


Unusually Active. I agree, but maybe we will have a less active later part of the season.
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waters plenty warm in the straights and in the bahamas
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Quoting StormTracker2K:
This here is US 1 and mile marker 116. This is some serious rain coming down on this shot.


Nah. I can see 6 or 7 power poles, at least. If it were one, maybe two, it would be serious rain.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
First visible will reveal a beautiful hurricane.



@washingtonian115: As for 94L, I am upping my chances to 70%. It looks very likely Beryl will form as a tropical storm off the southeast coastline this weekend and into next week.


With an IR like that, visible will be epic. And I'll probably win too! :D
Member Since: November 19, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 1286
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


The Ridge will block it before it gets that north, it will most likely become a tropical storm and then get shoved, SW like Alberto into georgia or north Florida.

Everyone south and Everyone north will be left out.
Rip currents comes to mind...And i keep forgetting that its only May.Feels so much like late June.
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with this, Bud, and possibly Beryl, we will be busy
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Quoting washingtonian115:
762,and 763 thanks for the response.This could spoil many beach goers plans.I was planning to go to Virginia beach but have decided to stick to the theme parks.


The Ridge will block it before it gets that north, it will most likely become a tropical storm and then get shoved, SW like Alberto into georgia or north Florida.

Everyone south and Everyone north will be left out.
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This here is US 1 and mile marker 116. This is some serious rain coming down on this shot.



US 1 and mile marker 102
Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
762,and 763 thanks for the response.This could spoil many beach goers plans.I was planning to go to Virginia beach but have decided to stick to the theme parks.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Has anybody else noticed that the models have the storm center almost 200 miles too far west of the storms?
Some of that is because it is from 2am but not all of it.

That's because it IS. Strong wind shear is affecting the disturbance right now, but should let up as it moves off the SE coast.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Here's a webcam from key Largo

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Has anybody else noticed that the models have the storm center almost 200 miles too far west of the storms?
Some of that is because it is from 2am but not all of it.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Are they getting any wind, the heaviest band is right on top of them.


no winds just heavy rain
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Quoting StormTracker2K:


winds are gusting between 23 & 26knts in and around the upper keys. This view is looking east toward South Beach.



It Could become a tropical depression off the Florida coast on those warm gulf stream waters.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I know people are excited about Bud becoming a hurricane..But what about future Beryl?.I herd that it could even become a minimal hurricane...


I'm excited, although I live in South Florida, I think this is one of the most Intresting tracks I have ever seen.

The storm goes out to sea, is blocked, and heads southwest into north Florida/ Georgia.

When was the last time a real tropical system made a landfall north of cape caneveral and south of savvana georgia (fay doesn't count)
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First visible will reveal a beautiful hurricane.



@washingtonian115: As for 94L, I am upping my chances to 70%. It looks very likely Beryl will form as a tropical storm off the southeast coastline this weekend and into next week.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 241200 CCA
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BUD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022012
500 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012

CORRECTED SPELLING OF PUNTA SAN TELMO IN WATCH/WARNING SECTION

...BUD STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 107.0W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO WESTWARD TO CABO
CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BUD WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. BUD IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BUD IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BUD IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST TODAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY
FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 978 MB...28.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...BUD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM THE
STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BUD WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO TODAY. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN
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There will be a Moderate Risk of severe weather today for the area around west Wisconsin.

Damaging winds appear to be the main threat with a squall line, and tornadoes, some possibly strong, and hail are also possible.
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Quoting sunlinepr:


Thanks for the reminder... Taz....
Interesting - Checking the Wunderblog Standards page

Link

It reads as follows:


------The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas about weather, the outdoors, and nearly everything.
Some blogs, such as Dr. Masters' Blog, have special community standards that apply only to them. For the blogs at large, as well as special or featured blogs, our Terms of Service apply. Please remain within the bounds of the Terms of Service. This document will strive to provide pointers for operating within the Wunderground community.-------------


Maybe the "Members to express their opinions and ideas about NEARLY EVERYTHING", is confusing and should be changed to specify that it "should be Weather related"






Thank You
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3132
I know people are excited about Bud becoming a hurricane..But what about future Beryl?.I herd that it could even become a minimal hurricane...
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Are they getting any wind, the heaviest band is right on top of them.


winds are gusting between 23 & 26knts in and around the upper keys. This view is looking east toward South Beach.

Member Since: October 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2651
Been a while since I've seen a storm actually look decent on this ir image.

It tends to really bring out the ugliness in tropical systems.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32033
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah it looks to be south of Key Largo.




Are they getting any wind, the heaviest band is right on top of them.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
for the ones that miss it early


524. WunderBlogAdmin (Admin) 5:15 PM PDT on May 23, 2012 24
Hello Bloggers!

Just a friendly reminder to stay on topic while commenting in Dr. Masters' blog. Please save your off-topic imagery and commentary for your private blogs. This blog is intended for serious weather discussions only.

For anyone who needs a review, I am including links to the Community Standards and the Rules of the Road, which includes information on what to expect if you do not follow the rules.

Thank you in advance for respecting Dr. Masters and your fellow weather enthusiasts!


Thanks for the reminder... Taz....
Interesting - Checking the Wunderblog Standards page

Link

It reads as follows:


------The WunderBlogs are a forum for our members to express their opinions and ideas about weather, the outdoors, and nearly everything.
Some blogs, such as Dr. Masters' Blog, have special community standards that apply only to them. For the blogs at large, as well as special or featured blogs, our Terms of Service apply. Please remain within the bounds of the Terms of Service. This document will strive to provide pointers for operating within the Wunderground community.-------------


Maybe the "Members to express their opinions and ideas about NEARLY EVERYTHING", is confusing and should be changed to specify that it "should be Weather related"



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.