Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

Share this Blog
30
+

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 854 - 804

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Have a nice morning folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



Thanks, already some 25kts wind being reported in the keys and Bahamas.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



That's a pretty impressive circulation given the state it's been in for the last 24 hours.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



Present latitude is 23.8 which is close to mid way across the straits
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Half way up the Florida straits based upon visible imagery and close to a heading towards the Southern tip of Florida.


Thanks, Im not sure how to post an image correctly, but i'll try.



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


try 60 to 70


Click to view full size image.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Where is the Circulation right now?

I think it is South of Key Largo.

Just came off the coast of Cuba.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


It could be a wet summer for some. As Crown weather wrote, if this forms into Beryl, it would be the first time since 1887 that two storms formed before June 1.
Absolutely..An early start to the rainy season, or a drenching early season storm can have serious consequences for Florida. It has happened many times before, and will certainly happen again. In 1947 U.S.1 was closed when the Fort Lauderdale Hurricane dumped huge amounts of rain on already saturated soil. Some neighborhoods were under 6 feet of water. The same thing happened in 1948. The damage would have been much worse, but previous storms had already affected the region....Excerpt Wiki..Florida

At the storm's first landfall, an 11-foot (3.4 m) storm surge was reported along the Florida coast. Large stretches of State Highway A1A between Palm Beach and Boynton Beach were washed out by the wave action.[12] The Boca Raton Airport, known then as Boca Raton Army Air Field, received significant damage from the storm, reporting $3 million in damages.[13] The hurricane was unusually large: some reports indicate hurricane-force winds may have extended 120 miles (190 km) out from the eye center (from Cape Canaveral to Coral Gables).

At Lake Okeechobee a 20 foot (6 m) storm surge was reported along the south shore between Clewiston and Moore Haven, nearly overrunning the Herbert Hoover Dike that surrounded the lake. Unlike in the 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane, the dike held and a much larger catastrophe were averted. However, this 1947 storm prompted a further strengthening of the dike in the 1960s.

The storm was also slow-moving (about 10 mph) and dropped a prodigious amount of rain over the area–records for single-month rainfall were set in many areas, some of which still stand today (others were broken in the 1992 or 2004 seasons), and flooding was among the worst in southern Florida's history.[14] The storm killed 17 people in Florida.[15] The hurricane damaged Citrus crops in the Fort Pierce area, and losses were estimated at $4,000,000.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Where is the Circulation right now?

I think it is South of Key Largo.


Half way up the Florida straits based upon visible imagery and close to a heading towards the Southern tip of Florida.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
South of Key Largo, FL



Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Thu, 24 May 2012 13:00:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160°) at 26.0 kt gusting to 29.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in and falling
Air Temperature: 75.9 F
Water Temperature: 80.2 F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
moisture just starting to wrap around 94l center,then baaammmm 50-60kts of sheer,not gonna happen today,im thinking beryl starts off sub tropical and fairly quickly transitions tropical sometime saturday night/sunday


try 60 to 70
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting kmanislander:
What a difference a day makes. Here is the ASCAT pass from last night showing a much improved and well defined low with 94L. Good thing this isn't sitting in low shear in the South Central Caribbean




Where is the Circulation right now?

I think it is South of Key Largo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
moisture just starting to wrap around 94l center,then baaammmm 50-60kts of sheer,not gonna happen today,im thinking beryl starts off sub tropical and fairly quickly transitions tropical sometime saturday night/sunday
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
That is a big blocking high building up over this weekend. It will be interesting to see how far the system can move North.



Well, this tells us why 94L is on a heading of NNE and therefore likely to be trapped by the building high and forced off to the West.No open door to the East.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Umm, wow!!!!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 MAY 2012 Time : 121500 UTC
Lat : 15:10:27 N Lon : 107:00:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.9mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -4.7C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

For those that don't know, a raw estimate of 6.3 is at category four strength.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Its trying to break off of the southern low, and the vorticity looks even better. actually pretty surprising
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Grothar:
That is a big blocking high building up over this weekend. It will be interesting to see how far the system can move North.



GFS persists this blocking pattern through 144. Hopefully it doesn't decide to stick around for a while, that would be most troublesome. Granted, steering should be on a case by case basis but longer term patterns can be derived. Image below is the same setup that paved the 04 landfalls with a mean trough position in the Great Lakes region.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Go ahead, make my day :)


I am scared of Flying in bad weather, Specially if i have a window seat. Severe Turbulence makes me nervous. So i hope, that their will be a lull in the weather, so you can land.

But it seems that their will be many delays across the busy airports.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What a difference a day makes. Here is the ASCAT pass from last night showing a much improved and well defined low with 94L. Good thing this isn't sitting in low shear in the South Central Caribbean


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Go ahead, make my day :)


Good luck with your flight...
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Circulation is evident on the Miami Radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&ri d=AMX&loop=yes

The rain field also looks like it is expanding.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Wow, looking more and more that Beryl is on way. Let's hope North Florida can get some beneficial rains out of it. South Florida has certainly getting their fair share.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey all.

I noticed that there is a large amount of dry air in the GOM area, but, I don't think that it will affect 94L much because it has a huge amount of moisture in and around it. The trough that came of the East Coast fueled it with a huge amount of moisture.



Take a good look, in all the satellite loops you don't see the disturbance losing much thunderstorm activity. Lack of the bands and moisture is what really destroyed Alberto.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


That solid rain band is creeping up the coast..


Go ahead, make my day :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
morning!!,looks to me based on analysis that any faux center of 94l just above the surface is very close to the Key West area, and is getting tore up by high sheer values,that should change in approx 36-48 hrs as a ull over central gom right now moves off the se coastline and any llc heads ne towards the same area,imo saturday will be the day of development
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
That is a big blocking high building up over this weekend. It will be interesting to see how far the system can move North.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I betchya that the nhc upped the chances to 20% becuse it looks like its seperaating from the front
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Lovely.

Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


Circulation appears to be south of Key Largo and convection is strengthing to the north and east, most likely due to the warm waters of the gulf stream coupled with day time heating.



Gulf stream i guess day time heating not yet and by the time day time heating comes along its not long before DMIN hits
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Llueve
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks, Geoff. I'm flying into Fort Lauderdale today.


That solid rain band is creeping up the coast..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Circulation appears to be south of Key Largo and convection is strengthing to the north and east, most likely due to the warm waters of the gulf stream coupled with day time heating.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:


atcf has it at 105 mph


I meant the sun is almost up over it lol, but yeah, not far off major status either.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
856 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE KEYS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. WHILE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS SO FAR REMAINED OVER
BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SOME OF THIS HEAVIER
CONVECTION WILL SOON AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND PERHAPS BROWARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOW THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AREAS
BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG. DOWNBURST WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.


Thanks, Geoff. I'm flying into Fort Lauderdale today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bud is a Cat 2? I feel so smart right now! Map created when Bud was first a Tropical Depression:


The track is off, ( I initialized him too far east which took the track off 50 miles) but I still said he would make Cat 2 even after he failed to strengthen for a while and the NHC stopped saying he would make hurricane strength!
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Fresh JMA

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I haven't seen this posted so here it is.Up to 20%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG


You just beat me to it:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Almost.....



atcf has it at 105 mph
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Up to 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Almost make you want to cringe if we have this set up come July thru Sept.


It could be a wet summer for some. As Crown weather wrote, if this forms into Beryl, it would be the first time since 1887 that two storms formed before June 1.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
856 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...
...FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LATEST
RADAR/SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE STREAMING NNW ACROSS THE KEYS AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
MIAMI DADE COUNTY. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES IN EXCESS OF 1-2 INCHES
PER HOUR. WHILE THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY HAS SO FAR REMAINED OVER
BISCAYNE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS, SOME OF THIS HEAVIER
CONVECTION WILL SOON AFFECT AT LEAST THE EASTERN AND COASTAL
PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE AND PERHAPS BROWARD COUNTY OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES AND/OR FLOOD WARNINGS MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.

THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE HRRR, SHOW THE BAND OF
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE METRO AREAS
BY MIDDAY WITH PERHAPS ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FORMING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BE STRONG. DOWNBURST WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I haven't seen this posted so here it is.Up to 20%.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTracker2K:


94L is expected to develope under the upper trough with very little wind shear as it approaches FL from the east.



Im aware, he was just saying it if it went west it would bring florida rain, and if it did go west it wuld be torn apart
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
It looks like the GFS wants to keep 94L over Northern Florida, Georgia and Alabama for a few days.


Here is the animated link:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
GFS at 72 hours:




at 96 hours:



Almost make you want to cringe if we have this set up come July thru Sept.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Almost.....

Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting weatherh98:


If it goes west, it hits a pocket of 80 knot windshear. nothing survives it, not even dare i say emily and her descendents


94L is expected to develope under the upper trough with very little wind shear as it approaches FL from the east.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS at 72 hours:




at 96 hours:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 854 - 804

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Snow
36 °F
Light Snow