Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

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to prove my point...

And I expect Broward and Dade to go "Blue" when it updates this afternoon around 4pm.

I found out, these maps are measuring fire hazard and soil moisture, not necessary drought according to rainfall.





You can see that Central and North Florida are in bad shape.. they need rain so badly.

----------------------






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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think 94L may even be drop later today


Don't think there would be much point in dropping it when it could be hanging around in some form for quite a while. Was quite suprised they'd invested it already though.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Quoting Buhdog:
Any rain at all in South Florida is a bonus... the Rainy season does not really kick in on the coast till late june and early july.

Good to see you all again this year my 8th tracking on this site! wow...


This would be my 7th hurricane season on here, and boy it's very hard to believe 6-7 years ago I knew virtually nothing about the tropics. Now I have actually helped others gain an understanding about tropical systems, patterns, etc. . Very petrifying to know I was in their shoes once. I've definitely come a long way.
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Quoting Buhdog:
Any rain at all in South Florida is a bonus... the Rainy season does not really kick in on the coast till late june and early july.

Good to see you all again this year my 8th tracking on this site! wow...


What????
Thanks for the update Dr Master.
Hi everyone,
Just a quick post.

I live in Ft Lauderdale area.. and we have had a very wet wet wet spring this year. much wetter than normal. Remember all those pictures I posted from like 8" in April?

in My neighborhood we got 3" Fri, Sat and Sunday and another 1" yesterday.
And Miami Dade got a lot more.
On the moisture Map all of South Florida and especially SE Fla is green and we are not in any type of drough.

Now Central and North Florida are so dry and in dought conditions. We need to send some of this rain to them.
I expect Broward and Dade Counties in SE Fla to be "Blue" on map when we get updates.

Your neighborhood may not be getting rain in South Florida but over all we are very wet...
and way above normal for the "dry" season.
We did not even have a "dry" season in SE Fla this year.

I do know some people just do not get a drop of rain when it is flooding all around them.
Cannot answer for that but overall we are exceptionally wet this year.

I also heard on news that our "wet spring" usually means fewer storms... but I think that is just guessing! not sure about that..

Hope those areas that need rain get it and we can see the sunshine for just a little while here in South Florida.
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i think 94L may even be drop later today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Hey...HWRF is one of our reliable models!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1393
All the heavy convection is located to the east of where the low is located. So with that taken into consideration with the model tracks, it would make sense if we didn't get much out of this... right? Please say wrong lol
Quoting LargoFl:
I have to agree with you there, Tampa bay is in the same fix, not a drop for us
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I know. As I said this morning, bud is in the process of rapidly intensifying.

Should be a hurricane this afternoon.




YAY
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Because it's an elongated, disorganised mess, with no dominant CoC and under 30-40 knots of shear that isn't likely to abate any time soon. Not gonna develop in the near future.
I would reword that and say not gonna develop within 48 hrs. Computermodels are developing it after it passes cuba so the'll cercul it late Thursday or Friday if Computer models and surface anaylisis look like there is a better chance of Developing right now its at near 0 % in the next 48 hrs.
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The result of nations fighting terrorism and
engaging in war, along with the devastation caused by
earthquakes and the destructiveness from weather, will place a
greater burden on a crushing global economy.

Add to all these economic woes the problem of trade deficits,
money manipulation, volatile oil markets, and a list of other
global ailments; and you have a sure formula for global economic
upheaval, the likes of which this world has never seen. The world
has experienced times of great economic upheaval, but it has
always bounced back in one way or another. This time there will
be no bouncing back because the world will experience a
complete economic meltdown to a level which not even the
hoarding of gold and silver will solve.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting Tazmanian:



EP, 02, 2012052312, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1074W, 55, 997, TS

Yeah, I know. As I said this morning, bud is in the process of rapidly intensifying.

Should be a hurricane this afternoon.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Quoting Tazmanian:



94L is weak right now is not even worth of a update on the outlook




i think the SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS in the off season are ues when the storms has at lest 20% or higher ch of fourming likey 94L has at lest 10% or below


Yeah you're right, something that poses a greater threat to develop in the near future should be mentioned. 94L is something to watch nearly a week down the road.
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Quoting BrickellBreeze:



What are the chances of 94l reaching td status?


not very likely at all. Pretty hostile environment very typical for may still in place. More rain for sfl through thurs.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
What's the latest satellite look like for bud?



EP, 02, 2012052312, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1074W, 55, 997, TS


Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
In terms of an economic impact on property, and even loss of
life, one of the most destructive forces that is taking a dramatic
turn for the worse is being caused by an escalating change in
our weather. Some will argue that the current weather
conditions are a reflection of normal cycles of change over
time. It is true that the weather follows cycles. Yes, there have
always been times of intensity when destructive powers have
been unleashed. However, now is different because the
destructiveness and change in weather patterns is going to
continue to increase dynamically, not following normal
patterns.

Some areas will experience abnormally large amounts of
rainfall, while others, that normally receive large amounts, will
receive none. The consequences of this will be a marked increase in
flooding and mudslides in some areas, while other areas will
experience growing problems with drought, which as we have seen
this past year, results in widespread fires and extensive damage to
livestock and crops. Some areas will experience normal amounts of
rain, but it will come at the wrong time to benefit agriculture. Too
much cold and too much heat at the wrong time will also add to this
destructive power. Those who have their livelihood in agriculture
have always had to contend with such things, but over the next
couple of years these conditions will become the worst yet!
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,
The season is starting early this year.
I wonder what it will bring.
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What's the latest satellite look like for bud?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32862
Any rain at all in South Florida is a bonus... the Rainy season does not really kick in on the coast till late june and early july.

Good to see you all again this year my 8th tracking on this site! wow...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


:)... given the current position of the 500MB low over SC... an east coast rainmaker is definitely not out of the question.

Hope I get some rain out of it before it heads out.


Same... just don't want the wind. Dealt with that enough during Irene here in central VA. We have about a 2 or 3" deficit as measured at the airport but I suspect that it's greater at my house because somehow the storms do manage to dodge me. Heck I had storms split last night right before it reached my house, and all I saw was 15-30 minutes of steady rain. Very fustrating living in the bubble. But in any case I just want a nice beneficial rainfall that will have us covered for the summer if we do have a drought, but given what the NWS extended outlook has projected, that doesn't look likely. Still it would be nice if we saw an all day soaker :).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Well... with all the invests so far in the off season taz NHC has color coded it. So why should this be any different?



94L is weak right now is not even worth of a update on the outlook




i think the SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS in the off season are ues when the storms has at lest 20% or higher ch of fourming likey 94L has at lest 10% or below
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Where's Press?



Kinda reminds me of this. Not talking intensity wise of course, just referring to the similarity in track

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Quoting tropicfreak:
So I see we finally have 94L. About time! Why hasn't NHC color coded it?


Because it's an elongated, disorganised mess, with no dominant CoC and under 30-40 knots of shear that isn't likely to abate any time soon. Not gonna develop in the near future.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1971
Question for Dr.JeffMasters and others who have contacts at the NationalHurricaneCenter:
When storms are still just Invests, is the ATCF purely automated for the night shift? ie Is it's publicly posted data derived strictly by computer algorithms like the initial USGS earthquake alerts?

I ask because -- before an Invest becomes a TropicalDepression or a TropicalStorm -- I've noticed a very strong tendency for the ATCF overnight data to be (often, dramaticly) corrected by the NHC morning crew, while I recall very few such shifts by the "night*crew" upon data produced during the day.

* If there is one for Invests: hence the scare quotes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


Can you say an east coast rainmaker? :P


:)... given the current position of the 500MB low over SC... an east coast rainmaker is definitely not out of the question.

Hope I get some rain out of it before it heads out.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting Tazmanian:




has i keep saying we are still in the OFF SEASON the nhc dos not start doing norml updates on the outlook in tell june 1st and right now 94L is not worth of a update on the out look


Well... with all the invests so far in the off season taz NHC has color coded it. So why should this be any different?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
So I see we finally have 94L. About time! Why hasn't NHC color coded it?




has i keep saying we are still in the OFF SEASON the nhc dos not start doing norml updates on the outlook in tell june 1st and right now 94L is not worth of a update on the out look
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting WxLogic:
00Z ECMWF is pretty similar to 06Z NAM... heads NE from its current position and stalls E of NFL/CFL and then heads back W as a High builds N/NE of it.

Very similar setup like the one we had back with Fay.


Can you say an east coast rainmaker? :P
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Quoting hurricane23:


Wow and didn't juyst imagined it was drier than a bone down their a while ago and now it looks like a tsunami took aim.What a difference 12 months makes.
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Morning Everyone!, had quite a bit of rain last night and looks like Grand Cayman is about to get slammed again!

Looks to be rotation at 20N 83.5W and also still some down at 16.5N 82.5W between the 2 convective bursts

Omit frames 1-18 of this vis loop to get rid of the night hours

Link
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Quoting hurricane23:





What are the chances of 94l reaching td status?
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
So I see we finally have 94L. About time! Why hasn't NHC color coded it?
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Quoting hurricane23:




My friend is in Miami on vacation, he took some pics and I'll upload them later.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Where's Press?

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Sure looks to me like 94L isn't going to do anything beneficial for SW Florida. We have been roasting under brilliant blue skies in Cape Coral for days now. I love the idea of all the rain everyone's talking about for the weekend and next week, but in our little corner I'm starting to think we've borrowed the Texas Death Ridge!
I have to agree with you there, Tampa bay is in the same fix, not a drop for us
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00Z ECMWF is pretty similar to 06Z NAM... heads NE from its current position and stalls E of NFL/CFL and then heads back W as a High builds N/NE of it.

Very similar setup like the one we had back with Fay.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Miami good to go for about 2 months with no rain to get back to normal.





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Totally agree with Dr. M on this one. Shear is too high which is normal for May. Looks like a good rain maker for SE Florida.
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Good Morning...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
That has to be an eye.



Maybe TAWX wasn't crazy for ringing the RI alarm a few hours ago.
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Thanks Dr. Masters...good morning all
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Miami good to go for about 2 months with no rain to get back to normal.



Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 15 Comments: 11346
EP, 02, 2012052312, , BEST, 0, 132N, 1074W, 55, 997, TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
For the past two days--and again this morning--Naples has been mostly clear and dry, while, tantalizingly close, the southeastern sky has been jam-packed full of giant and roiling cumulonimbus clouds shuttling off to the northeast (though, thankfully, our view of those beautiful clouds was obscured by the smoke of a brush fire that broke out). The tale of the tape rain gauge:

NAPLES PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 2.11

MIAMI PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 9.70R
MONTH TO DATE 12.19
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Sure looks to me like 94L isn't going to do anything beneficial for SW Florida. We have been roasting under brilliant blue skies in Cape Coral for days now. I love the idea of all the rain everyone's talking about for the weekend and next week, but in our little corner I'm starting to think we've borrowed the Texas Death Ridge!
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blog2100comment805 aspectre: [94L mapping]
blog2100comment806 wunderkidcayman: Hey, can some tell me what the hell is going on? 'cause I know for sure that 94L is not at 20N 83W

The NHC gives itself a very generous 0.5degrees margin of error on its storm*positions. So when it makes a correction of ~57miles(92kilometres) or ~0.83degrees upon a storm's previous coordinate, the gap is a very strong signal that the NHC doesn't have a good handle on the system.
Read below, where 20N 83W was re-evaluated&altered to 19.6n84.1w

Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for 94L on 23May12pmGMT:
18.0n84.9w, 18.2n84.5w, 19.1n83.7w, 20.0n83.0w has been re-evaluated&altered
18.4n85.0w, 18.7n84.8w, 19.2n84.5w, 19.6n84.1w, 20.0n83.7w are now the newest positions
23May6pmGMT's minimum pressure of 1009millibars has been re-evaluated&altered to 1008millibars

Its ATCF position was 20.0n83.7w
Its vector had held steady to NEast at 6.3mph(10.2k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady at ~25knots(29mph)46k/h
And minimum pressure had held steady at 1008millibars

For those who like to visually track 94L's path... EYW is KeyWest
LYB is LittleCayman . PND is PuntaGorda,Belize . BHG is BrusLaguna,Honduras

The southwesternmost point on the connected line-segments is where NHC initiated 94L
The nothernmost point on the connected line-segments is its most recent position

Copy&paste eyw, lyb, pnd, bhg, 18.0n86.0w-18.0n85.4w, 18.0n85.4w-18.4n85.0w, 18.4n85.0w-18.7n84.8w, 18.7n84.8w-19.2n84.5w, 19.2n84.5w-19.6n84.1w, 19.6n84.1w-20.0n83.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
And the most recent previous mapping for comparison.

* To be corrected later, after the original posting times, sometimes well after.
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94 a big rain maker
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
Quoting weatherh98:


Can't decide if it's a dry air intrusion or an eyewall but more likely aliens:)


There's been no MW for hours. :( So until then there is no way to know for sure.
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Quoting yqt1001:
Latest IR image of Bud.



Can't tell if that's half of an eyewall or just... aliens?

First vis will be soon.


Can't decide if it's a dry air intrusion or an eyewall but more likely aliens:)
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539
Quoting Seastep:
HWRF on takes 94L over SE FL and then up and into SC.

Link

I am not taking the models on 94L yet not till it develop a proper central low level center and that seems to be taking shape just N and E of honduras so you should too
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Latest IR image of Bud.



Can't tell if that's half of an eyewall or just... aliens?

First vis will be soon.
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Thanks doc!
Member Since: June 17, 2011 Posts: 11 Comments: 6539

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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