Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

Share this Blog
30
+

An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 454 - 404

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

454. Grothar
10:07 PM GMT on May 23, 2012
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
435. Grothar 5:41 PM EDT on May 23, 20

I know you live in Florida like I do; that particular analog year you chose (to show the blocking pattern that season I assume) is a really bad one to pick....Lol.


I actually didn't pick it as an analog year. I do not believe 2004 is an analog year for 2012. I just posted it because while Dr. Gray was close to the actual number, there were far more intense hurricanes that year than had been anticipated. But in all fairness they did show an above average landfall activity.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28706
453. Tazmanian
10:07 PM GMT on May 23, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: Will Invest 94L develop? (If so, proceed to Q2)

A. Yes
B. No

Q: What will Invest 94L peak as?

A. Subtropical/tropical Depression
B. Subtropical/tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

Q1: A
Q2: B



A and D
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5096 Comments: 116605
452. allancalderini
10:04 PM GMT on May 23, 2012
Quoting aspectre:
Inre 421 and 426, WxGeekVA, careful of what you put up during hurricanes and other emergency conditions.
The moderators tend to get more annoyed by the amount of page space being used by an irrelevant pic than by the bytes. Many WUbers have gotten temporary bans for irrelevant pictures, especially large pictures, especially during HurricaneSeason.

I got temp-banned for posting pictures of famous female "Alex"s -- three across and two down -- when another WUber insisted that the hurricane be talked of as a "he" because "Alex is a man's name."
Alex could also be for a girl and can be use as short for Alexandra.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4538
451. TropicalAnalystwx13
10:03 PM GMT on May 23, 2012
Q: Will Invest 94L develop? (If so, proceed to Q2)

A. Yes
B. No

Q: What will Invest 94L peak as?

A. Subtropical/tropical Depression
B. Subtropical/tropical Storm
C. Category 1/2 hurricane
D. Major hurricane

Q1: A
Q2: B
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34469
Quoting Grothar:



You may have a good point. I think 2004 was a weak el Nino year. I have not agreed with a below average season since the intial reports came out. My figures are a lot higher.


Central America was really spare that year.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4538
WOW it's pouring outside!!!!.With loud thunder!.Post 448 Yes.And that map is about to change for the better.Our local met just said that the ground is really saturated now.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19566
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thunder is currently rumbling out side.Can someone post the drought map please?

Your in DC right?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another yellow area highlighted in May. Strange. Will take a look Saturday and see if something comes of it. I hope that any damage will be outweighed by helping end the drought in the SE.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


That year was no picnic for us here in the mid-atlantic either.... all those storms that hit florida would always come up the east coast and be big rainmakers, sometimes tornado makers, especially Ivan. I remember when Frances' remnants came through we had a mini tornado outbreak across central VA.... in fact there was one tornado that passed a couple miles to my north. Scary year that I hope to never repeat. A lot of rain and a lot of severe weather. Gaston was the worst for us, over a foot of rain fell in 14 hours, flooded shockoe bottom and other suburbs.
I know that the hurricanes also contributed to a above average tornado season and flood season on the east coast.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19566
Quoting washingtonian115:
A Floridians worst nightmare :).


No, I believe that would be a waiter or waitress from New York.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28706
I say 14 to 15 name storms 6 to 8 hurricanes and 3 to 4 major hurricanes that`s my call for now.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4538
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Well, The difference in my mind is that, though the 2004 season may have been an el nino, it wasn't a el nino season coming off back-back La Nina seasons..
This year will likely be a Nuetral-El Nino season, which will result in Average amount of hurricane activity, but slightly above average storm formation activity. 2013, my guess with El nino conditions in full effect, will be more like a inactive, and quiet year to cope with, 2012, not seeing it.


I bet you read that in Wiki: :) I have to agree with that. I believe they have underestimated this year. It will be interesting to see the revisions in June.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28706
The 18Z GFS at 69 hours positions the low pressure area/tropical cyclone in the same area as the 12Z ECMWF did.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34469
Quoting washingtonian115:
A Floridians worst nightmare :).


That year was no picnic for us here in the mid-atlantic either.... all those storms that hit florida would always come up the east coast and be big rainmakers, sometimes tornado makers, especially Ivan. I remember when Frances' remnants came through we had a mini tornado outbreak across central VA.... in fact there was one tornado that passed a couple miles to my north. Scary year that I hope to never repeat. A lot of rain and a lot of severe weather. Gaston was the worst for us, over a foot of rain fell in 14 hours, flooded shockoe bottom and other suburbs.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6913
Quoting Grothar:



You may have a good point. I think 2004 was a weak el Nino year. I have not agreed with a below average season since the intial reports came out. My figures are a lot higher.



Well, The difference in my mind is that, though the 2004 season may have been an el nino, it wasn't a el nino season coming off back-back La Nina seasons..
This year will likely be a Nuetral-El Nino season, which will result in Average amount of hurricane activity, but slightly above average storm formation activity. 2013, my guess with El nino conditions in full effect, will be more like a inactive, and quiet year to cope with, 2012, not seeing it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
435. Grothar 5:41 PM EDT on May 23, 20

I know you live in Florida like I do; that particular analog year you chose (to show the blocking pattern that season I assume) is a really bad one to pick....Lol.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11100
Quoting Dodabear:


It says it won't develop within 48 hours. Doesn't say it won't in 49 hours or shortly thereafter. Read the whole statement.
Exactly. And it also doesn't say zero...it says close to zero. Probability 1-5% as per NHC protocol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:



You may have a good point. I think 2004 was a weak el Nino year. I have not agreed with a below average season since the intial reports came out. My figures are a lot higher.


A Floridians worst nightmare :).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19566
Quoting aspectre:
Inre 421 WxGeekVA... Careful of what you put up during hurricanes and other emergency conditions.
The moderators tend to get more annoyed by the amount of page space being used by an irrelevant pic than by the bytes. Many WUbers have gotten temporary bans for irrelevant pictures, especially large pictures, especially during HurricaneSeason.

I got banned for posting pictures of famous female "Alex"s -- three across and two down -- when another WUber insisted that the hurricane be talked of as a "he" because "Alex is a man's name."


I know. I've been here long enough to be aware of that, and wouldn't do that during peak season.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3482
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The number of storms in any given season takes a backseat to the trajectory and possible landfall location and we will have to see how the El Nino pans out this season in terms of that outcome. I was surprised to get an e-mail yesterday from a University Met expecting a near average season with 14-16 named storms (when juxtaposed against the current Gray prediction for El Nino conditions vs. an early season "A" storm that has some folks excited about a higher number of storms).

Regardless of the outcome of that debate, I share the concern noted here regarding the current ridging pattern emerging in the A-B high. It will fluctuate between now and August-September but if we get into a blocking pattern out there, there might not be a many Cape Verde fish storms as we have seen in recent years.

We really have to hope for the best this year; Florida and the Gulf coast have had a nice break so to speak over the past few seasons.



You may have a good point. I think 2004 was a weak el Nino year. I have not agreed with a below average season since the intial reports came out. My figures are a lot higher.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28706
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't know what compelled me to search it after reading this, but look what I found...






HAHAHA! yes thats the one LOL...yes we do have fun and everybody lets support portlight if we can! Wonderful organization that is there when you need them
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3497
Inre 421 and 426, WxGeekVA, careful of what you put up during hurricanes and other emergency conditions.
The moderators tend to get more annoyed by the amount of page space being used by an irrelevant pic than by the bytes. Many WUbers have gotten temporary bans for irrelevant pictures, especially large pictures, especially during HurricaneSeason.

I got temp-banned for posting pictures of famous female "Alex"s -- three across and two down -- when another WUber insisted that the hurricane be talked of as a "he" because "Alex is a man's name."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 72 Comments: 28706
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Dry air looks be be intraining into Bud now. He might now be capable of making it to Hurricane status until he gets rid of the Dry air. I think he'll come close if he can't make hurricane status.

as for 94L... Could call from the NHC saying 0%, I agree that it's not currently a threat to develop and won't be for at least 48 hours, but as time goes on conditions might open up for it to develop if it can linger long enough. I give it a 20% chance of becoming Beryl at any point in time as of now.


I'm thinking more along the lines of 14-7-4. But your forecast seems somewhat reasonable to me. Those who say 16+, or 10- are a little off this season. The Storm count will likely be from 11 to 15, hurricanes: 4 to 7, and intense hurricanes: 2 to 4. Im on the highside of some of them, but i do have faith in my predictions. and Will have my Full on sumbition of this number on June 1, that i will stick to during the season. Curious to see if my numbers are close.
Just think about it.We get Beryl and Chris in these two weeks and have 12 storms during the season..=15 storms.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19566
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My friend's prediction is 14-16 named storms, 7-8 hurricanes and 4-5 majors. I am going to e-mail him back tonight to ask if he is taking Dr. Gray's numbers and the most recent ENSO forecasts into consideration.... :)
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11100
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Hey Buddy any rain by you last night? As the lightning was insane by me but no rain.


Yep...It was the opposite with me. Rain with thunder in the distance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Meanwhile, thunderstorms are trying as hard as they can to hit everywhere but my area...



You and me both, only 100 miles south of you..... got 0.06" of rain so far today, and 0.12 last night lol when I should have gotten more. Those storms always manage to dodge my area....


Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6913
Quoting Dodabear:
Where is the eye bleach???????????


Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3482
Quoting sunlinepr:

Dry air looks be be intraining into Bud now. He might now be capable of making it to Hurricane status until he gets rid of the Dry air. I think he'll come close if he can't make hurricane status.

as for 94L... Could call from the NHC saying 0%, I agree that it's not currently a threat to develop and won't be for at least 48 hours, but as time goes on conditions might open up for it to develop if it can linger long enough. I give it a 20% chance of becoming Beryl at any point in time as of now.

Quoting washingtonian115:
That is why I'm sticking with my guns of 15 named storms.I will eat crow at the end of the season if this forecast does not come to pass.

I'm thinking more along the lines of 14-7-4. But your forecast seems somewhat reasonable to me. Those who say 16+, or 10- are a little off this season. The Storm count will likely be from 11 to 15, hurricanes: 4 to 7, and intense hurricanes: 2 to 4. Im on the highside of some of them, but i do have faith in my predictions. and Will have my Full on sumbition of this number on June 1, that i will stick to during the season. Curious to see if my numbers are close.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where is the eye bleach???????????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting K8eCane:



Careful What You Say You Will Do. Ive Known Grown Men Who Had To Wear Dresses Around Here


May have to see if BF still has those pictures of Bob and Damon in their WU Dresses! LOL

and don't forget Aubie in the Pink Tutu a few years ago at a Destin gathering!

Yes, we have men wearing dresses around here!!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


You never know, could be. The 12 UTC run only shows that feature as a low that moves out to the North without developing in the Caribbean. 186 hours is still far out.


If anything, it leads me to believe the current overall pattern is going to be around a while.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 6026
The number of storms in any given season takes a backseat to the trajectory and possible landfall location and we will have to see how the El Nino pans out this season in terms of that outcome. I was surprised to get an e-mail yesterday from a University Met expecting a near average season with 14-16 named storms (when juxtaposed against the current Gray prediction for El Nino conditions vs. an early season "A" storm that has some folks excited about a higher number of storms).

Regardless of the outcome of that debate, I share the concern noted here regarding the current ridging pattern emerging in the A-B high. It will fluctuate between now and August-September but if we get into a blocking pattern out there, there might not be a many Cape Verde fish storms as we have seen in recent years.

We really have to hope for the best this year; Florida and the Gulf coast have had a nice break so to speak over the past few seasons.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11100
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I'm a female so even if I have to wear a bunny suit I'll.....let's not go their..:).



LOL ok i will leave it alone MISS Washingtonian LOL
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3497
Ahhhhh...There's no place like home...lol

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ADVANCING EAST OF THE AREA WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE...EVOLVING INTO A STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SYSTEM WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL SQUASH ANY RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE MODERATING SOUTHERLIES...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE THE NORM AS SUBSIDENCE ADDS A FEW EXTRA DEGREES FOR
AFTERNOON HIGHS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thunder is currently rumbling out side.Can someone post the drought map please?
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19566
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


where are you, hemdon?


Fairfax City
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3482
Quoting K8eCane:



Careful What You Say You Will Do. Ive Known Grown Men Who Had To Wear Dresses Around Here
Well I'm a female so even if I have to wear a bunny suit I'll.....let's not go their..:).
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19566
Quoting aspectre:
386 washingtonian115: Pinhole eye!!!!
392 hydrus: I am putting up my shutters.

Forget that. I'm getting industrial-grade safety-glasses. Pins can squeeze between shutters.


industrial grade?
Im getting military grade.
I can handle ANYTHING with full battle gear :)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
386 washingtonian115: Pinhole eye!!!!
392 hydrus: I am putting up my shutters.

Forget that. I'm getting industrial-grade safety-glasses. Pins can be poked between shutters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Meanwhile, thunderstorms are trying as hard as they can to hit everywhere but my area...



where are you, hemdon?
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
Quoting washingtonian115:
That is why I'm sticking with my guns of 15 named storms.I will eat crow at the end of the season if this forecast does not come to pass.



Careful What You Say You Will Do. Ive Known Grown Men Who Had To Wear Dresses Around Here
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3497
**5:00PM ADVISORY**
(click to enlarge)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting superweatherman:


What is the point of given it 0%?


It says it won't develop within 48 hours. Doesn't say it won't in 49 hours or shortly thereafter. Read the whole statement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile, thunderstorms are trying as hard as they can to hit everywhere but my area...

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3482

The trough is now coming weaker per the GFS than yesterday, but it might still do something.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9770
405. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting superweatherman:


What is the point of given it 0%?


the point of issuance of TWO because of this information..

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IF we do get to Beryl before June, and Chris in June - there's no doubt in my mind 2012 will be more active than 2009 and 2006, certainly no 2011 or 2010, but more on pair with 2002 or 1999. I'm not liking the setup either, it's much more dangerous than in 2009 and 2006, at least the way it is now. Look at the high being portrayed by the ECMWF, if that where to stay in place in Hurricane season it would be very hard for systems to recurve until they reached 60W or so.
That is why I'm sticking with my guns of 15 named storms.I will eat crow at the end of the season if this forecast does not come to pass.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 19566

Viewing: 454 - 404

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Overcast
66 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Gust front cloud, SE Michigan
Thunderstorm over Grand Teton
Double rainbow over Old Faithful
Rainbow in Riverside Geyser