Invest 94L bringing heavy rains; Bud finally strengthening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on May 23, 2012

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An area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean is bringing heavy rains to the Cayman Islands and Central Cuba. This disturbance was designated Invest 94L by NHC this morning. The disturbance is under a high 30 - 40 knots wind shear, according that the latest SHIPS model analysis. This high shear is not expected to diminish over the next few days, and 94L will have a tough time developing in the face of such high wind shear. The disturbance should move north-northeast across Cuba today and Thursday, bringing heavy rains to Cuba, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Miami received a hefty 9.7 inches of rain on Tuesday, a record for the date, and moisture streaming northeastwards from 94L today and Thursday will contribute to the widespread street flooding the city is experiencing. An areal flood watch has been posted for Miami, and an additional 1 - 2 inches of rain are expected today.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Tropical Storm Bud continues as a minimal-strength 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, ignoring seemingly favorable conditions for strengthening. However, recent satellite loops show a more organized appearance to the storm, with increased low-level spiral banding, so Bud may finally be responding to the favorable conditions for intensification--low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and SSTs of 28 - 29°C. On Thursday and Friday, wind shear will rise to the moderate level, SSTs will cool, and total heat content of the waters will decline, which may limit Bud's potential to reach hurricane strength. Almost all of our reliable models are now forecasting that the trough of low pressure pulling Bud towards the coast of Mexico will not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days. The potentially still exists for Bud to deluge the coast near Manzanillo with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides on Friday and Saturday, but the delayed intensification of Bud is making this prospect look less likely.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Jeff Masters

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904. mangroveman
6:21 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
We got about 2 feet of rain in the past 3 days from the low now heading your way.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 2
903. weatherbro
2:53 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
NEW BLOG!!!
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
902. MahFL
2:41 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
I also think shear is a lot less that the 60 or 70 reported.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
901. WxGeekVA
2:41 PM GMT on May 24, 2012


If Bud could wrap that convection all the way around the eye then we could be dealing with a major hurricane...
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900. stillwaiting
2:39 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
i have any llc just south of everglades national park atm
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
899. ProgressivePulse
2:39 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Now wondering if this low doesn't end up just west of lake o.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
898. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
897. MahFL
2:37 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:


About to cross over into Florida bay/ Everglades.


Hey, it better back up a bit, not to make me incorrect !
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 2913
896. MahFL
2:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.


The Special Tropical Weather Outlook states that condictions will improve in the next 2 days. It's not going to form in the next 59 minutes, so be patient......
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895. BrickellBreeze
2:35 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting MahFL:


12 UTC is 3.5 hours ago I think, it's moved NNE since then, nearly at the FL keys.


About to cross over into Florida bay/ Everglades.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
894. MahFL
2:32 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just came off the coast of Cuba.



12 UTC is 3.5 hours ago I think, it's moved NNE since then, nearly at the FL keys.
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893. BrickellBreeze
2:32 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Correction: The Center of Circulation of 94L is to the Southwest of Key Largo, to the SouthEast of Ismalarda. It's moving NorthNorthEast.

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
892. NICycloneChaser
2:30 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.


Shear is forecast to drop fairly substantially when 94L makes it up to the east of Florida/SC, and with low shear, dry air won't be such a huge problem, particularly if it gets over the gulf stream. There's also fairly substantial model support that a deep enough low will develop. Not gonna happen just yet, and 20% for the next 48 hours perhaps is a little generous, but in 72 hours, conditions will improve.
Member Since: August 10, 2010 Posts: 2 Comments: 1970
891. stillwaiting
2:30 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Pinpointing the circulation is harder than it seems.. I'm Guessing it's now due south of Key Largo, but I'm judging by radar. So I'm not sure.
,use the visible satellite,the radar can be decieving when dealing with locating any llc,any llc is clearly evident just north east of kw
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
890. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:30 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.

Conditions will be MUCH more favorable for tropical development by the weekend as the system pulls north of the subtropical jet stream underneath an upper level low. I'd anything, their current percentage is /conservative/ as 48 hours takes us to early Saturday morning at which time we will probably be dealing with a well defined system.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30310
889. BrickellBreeze
2:28 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
.Quoting afj3:



Their is a Heavy Rain band that has just been parked north of key largo for three hours, with rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour.

I bet their is some flooding there.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
888. ILwthrfan
2:25 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Everyone sure seems big on 94L.... 70-60 knots of shear just to the west along with VERY DRY AIR.  If anything does come of it, it will likely just be a rain producer.  I'm thinking the 20% is a little generous given the extremely hostile conditions.  Not to mention its going to be hugging the coast pulling in more dry air kinda like how Alberto and Irene struggled with.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1404
887. Chicklit
2:23 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Nice coverage of 94L this morning everybody, thanks.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11047
886. BrickellBreeze
2:23 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting OneDrop:
Ahh, the Boca Pavilion. I miss that place. I'm in Ormond By The Sea now and we have a waist high swell out of the south but Boca has a small wave coming in out of the north.


Looks like the Surf is picking up.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
885. BrickellBreeze
2:19 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Pinpointing the circulation is harder than it seems.. I'm Guessing it's now due south of Key Largo, but I'm judging by radar. So I'm not sure.
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
884. RitaEvac
2:18 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
15 days till utter chaos

"I give it 15 days. If the European Union doesn't release the loans it has promised by then, there will be scenes of utter chaos here," said Dimitris Karageorgiou, secretary general of the Panhellenic Pharmaceutical Association.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
883. OneDrop
2:13 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting BrickellBreeze:
Meanwhile off the coast of Florida:

Ahh, the Boca Pavilion. I miss that place. I'm in Ormond By The Sea now and we have a waist high swell out of the south but Boca has a small wave coming in out of the north.
Member Since: May 25, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
882. LBAR
2:11 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Charleston, SC NWS is always descriptive.

THE FORECAST GETS MUCH TRICKIER ON SATURDAY AS THE MODELS GIVE A
VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
EVOLVE. THEY ALL RETROGRADE THE LOW BACK TOWARD THE COAST AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TRAPPING THE LOW AND
PREVENTING IT FROM MOVING NORTH AND EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. AT THIS
TIME...I PREFER A GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH
FLORIDA COAST BY LATE SUNDAY. THAT WOULD PUT US ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES ON SUNDAY... AS WELL AS AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS AND MORE
CLOUDS WOULD ALSO MEAN LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO I ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

MY MAIN REASONING FOR PREFERRING THE GFS IS THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION
CURRENTLY SHOWN ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. FOR THE NAM SOLUTION TO
WORK OUT...THERE WOULD ALREADY HAVE TO BE A DISTINCT SURFACE LOW
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND I DO NOT SEE THAT
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. ALSO...THE LATEST ECMWF IS JUST COMING IN...AND
SO FAR IT LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS THAN THE NAM.

THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. PHASE SPACE
DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MAY WELL DEVELOP A WARM CORE AS IT
MOVES BACK TOWARD THE COAST...AND THE LATEST MODIS SST IMAGES SHOW
WATER TEMPS IN THE EXPECTED PATH AROUND 80F...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THE
SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

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881. nrtiwlnvragn
2:10 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
25.0N 80.4W


Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
880. islander101010
2:10 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
its been wet in the everglades wont hurt the circulation much
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879. stillwaiting
2:10 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the low run a bit further inland than previously thought looking at visible.
,a nne movement across the glades imo,sheer's giving 94l no chance atm,should provide for more precip than currently forcast over the central and southern peninsula imo,its analyized a bit to east imo,its much closer to the area just north of the kw
Member Since: October 5, 2007 Posts: 20 Comments: 4970
878. BrickellBreeze
2:08 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the low run a bit further inland than previously thought looking at visible.


South of Key Largo, heading north with a small east component. Possible
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
877. ProgressivePulse
2:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Well, guys, I am about to get on the plane. I should be home by this evening. I will give you a first hand account of all the rain. I just hope I don't get diverted to West Palm Beach.:)


Have a safe flight Gro.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
876. WxLogic
2:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Convergence is not bad as of 12Z:

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875. BrickellBreeze
2:07 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
Well, guys, I am about to get on the plane. I should be home by this evening. I will give you a first hand account of all the rain. I just hope I don't get diverted to West Palm Beach.:)


The Rain will reach there too
Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
874. Chucktown
2:06 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Patrap:
"crap-out"


Is this a TV met term or do you use it here to make you look big and smart sport?



A little bit of both - It's actually in the English dictionary according to Presslord, found just above the entry "the carolinas."
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1664
873. Grothar
2:06 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Well, guys, I am about to get on the plane. I should be home by this evening. I will give you a first hand account of all the rain. I just hope I don't get diverted to West Palm Beach.:)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 64 Comments: 23755
872. ProgressivePulse
2:04 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
I wouldn't be surprised to see the low run a bit further inland than previously thought looking at visible.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 4863
871. BrickellBreeze
2:04 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting chrisdscane:




hmmmmm interesting packing 35 mph winds

Link


Once the low becomes closed, it will have a good chance of becoming a tropical depression.

But with 50knts+ of shear at the moment, highly unlikely.
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870. chrisdscane
2:03 PM GMT on May 24, 2012




hmmmmm interesting packing 35 mph winds

Link
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869. Stormchaser2007
2:02 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Surface Analysis:

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868. islander101010
2:02 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
94 likes the deep and warm water of the fl. straights seems on the upswing despite the shear
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867. BrickellBreeze
1:59 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Meanwhile off the coast of Florida:

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
866. Patrap
1:59 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
"crap-out"


Is this a TV met term or do you use it here to make you look big and smart sport?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125753
865. BrickellBreeze
1:57 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
North Miami Beach: (Rain and Webcam shaking)

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamibeach/?c am=miamibeach5


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864. afj3
1:52 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

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863. BrickellBreeze
1:48 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Heavy Rain and Some decent wind (Webcam Shaking) at Coconut Grove, FL

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamibeach/?c am=miamibeach5

Member Since: March 22, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 723
862. Chucktown
1:47 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting AussieStorm:
Interesting loop. HWRF takes 94L into SC after a slight trip up the coast.


Saw that, it would "crap-out" the end of our Memorial Day weekend here, but we need the rain in the Lowcountry - Bring It On !!
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861. AussieStorm
1:43 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Interesting loop. HWRF takes 94L into SC after a slight trip up the coast. Believable?
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860. Tazmanian
1:43 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
EP, 02, 2012052412, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1069W, 90, 970, HU,
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
859. AussieStorm
1:41 PM GMT on May 24, 2012

Click for loop.
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858. AussieStorm
1:40 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15750
857. weatherh98
1:39 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:
Have a nice morning folks.


you too kman
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856. weatherbro
1:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting Grothar:
It looks like the GFS wants to keep 94L over Northern Florida, Georgia and Alabama for a few days.


Here is the animated link:

Link


GFS is an outlier, the rest keep it dwindling in the southwest Atlantic/just off the southeast coast.
Member Since: May 26, 2007 Posts: 47 Comments: 1214
855. weatherh98
1:38 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:
Have a nice morning folks.


You to kman
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854. kmanislander
1:36 PM GMT on May 24, 2012
Have a nice morning folks.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.