Bud a heavy rain threat for Mexico; 1-year anniversary of Joplin tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:07 AM GMT on May 22, 2012

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Tropical Storm Bud intensified into a 40 mph storm this morning in the Eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico, and poses a significant flooding threat to the country late this week. The storm has been slow to organize due to its large size, as seen on satellite loops. But with favorable SSTs of 29 - 30°C and light to moderate wind shear in the 5 - 15 knots range expected along its path, Bud should steadily organize today and Wednesday, and become Hurricane Bud by Thursday. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing north of the storm late this week, turning Bud to the north towards the Mexican coast between Manzanillo and Acapulco. However, the trough of low pressure may not be strong enough to bring Bud ashore, and the storm could linger near the coast for several days, potentially deluging the coast with very heavy rains capable of triggering dangerous flash floods and mudslides, beginning on Friday.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Bud.

Record earliest date for formation of the season's second named storm
Bud is the second named storm to form in the Eastern Pacific in 2012--Tropical Storm Aletta, which formed on May 15, was the first. Bud's appearance on May 21 marks the earliest date since record keeping began in 1949 for formation of the season's second named storm. The previous record was set in 1984, when the second named storm formed on May 29. Only two other years have had two named storms in May in the Eastern Pacific--2007 and 1956, which both had the second named storm of the year form on May 30. If Bud ends up making landfall in Mexico as a hurricane, it would be only the second Eastern Pacific May hurricane on record to hit Mexico. The other was Hurricane Agatha of May 24,1971, which hit the same stretch of coast that Bud is threatening. Agatha made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane about 45 mi (75 km) from Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The village of Playa Azul was hard hit by the storm, with up to half of the village's homes destroyed. Ocean temperatures this year in the region where Aletta and Bud formed are only slightly above average, so the large scale atmospheric patterns are probably more to blame for this year's exceptionally early start to hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific.


Figure 2. True-color visible satellite image of Alberto taken by the Aqua satellite at 2 pm EDT Monday May 21, 2012. Image credit: NASA.

Alberto headed out to sea
Tropical Depression Alberto is racing northeastwards out to sea, and has been substantially weakened by very high wind shear of 50 knots and passage over cool ocean waters of 24°C (75°F). Alberto will not trouble any land areas, and does not have long to live before being completely dismantled by the high wind shear.


Figure 3. Aerial view of damage from the May 22, 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado. Image credit: Wikipedia.

One-year anniversary of the Joplin, Missouri EF-5 tornado
May 22 marks the 1-year year anniversary of the deadly Joplin Missouri tornado. The massive EF-5 tornado with winds in excess of 200 mph mowed a 14-mile path of destruction up to one mile wide across the southern portion of the city. The tornado killed 161 people--the highest death toll from a U.S. tornado since 1947, and the seventh deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The tornado did $3 billion in damage, making it the most expensive tornado in world history. The death toll from the tornado undoubtedly would have been higher had the National Weather Service not issued a tornado warning a full 24 minutes in advance of the tornado. This is nearly double the average tornado warning lead time of thirteen minutes.

Links
The most remarkable audio I've ever heard of people surviving a direct hit by a violent tornado was posted to Youtube by someone who took shelter in the walk-in storage refrigerator at a gas station during the Joplin tornado. There isn't much video.


Video 1. Video of the Joplin, Missouri tornado of May 22, 2011, entering the southwest side of town. Filmed by TornadoVideos.net Basehunters team Colt Forney, Isaac Pato, Kevin Rolfs, and Scott Peake.

Jeff Masters

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Woops....just as I say that....we have 94L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


why would you say that?

Its in a favored area for development with plenty of moisture and warm SSTs, shear is expected to drop and it has model support

Id say it has a decent shot
water temps are in the low 80's, sure warm enough huh
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I'm stunned... I really don't think this has a chance, very interesting they'd tag it.


why would you say that?

Its in a favored area for development with plenty of moisture and warm SSTs, shear is expected to drop and it has model support

Id say it has a decent shot
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so where is 94L at
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
we have 94L how ever they should have droped it down to 17N
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
I'm pretty surprised the Caribbean area doesn't at least have a mention by the NHC.
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Quoting cg2916:


Yes! Finally! Yellow circle soon?

Eh, don't push your luck, Maybe later this week.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 94L!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

I'm stunned... I really don't think this has a chance, very interesting they'd tag it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


Yes! Finally! Yellow circle soon?

More than likely.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31998
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting LargoFl:
at Last

ITS ABOUT TIME!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't take 2 more days of this, I've had enough! Why can't this just move to NE as fast it can :(
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Cool beans. Now we can get additional model information and tracks.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31998
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
We have invest 94L!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Yes! Finally! Yellow circle soon?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
WE have invest 94L!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
at Last
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
We have invest 94L!!!

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201205230010
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012052300, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14243
.....................Tampa and orlando, Lower your shields pls we NEED the rain..gee
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Caribbean AOI still not a Invest, though it has lower pressures and strong winds, they should atleast tag it.


The low is either too broad or not well-defined enough. Even if they did tag it, the models would have a heck of a time with this system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherh98:

This bad boy looks better than 45

CIMSS ADT T-numbers support a 45 mph tropical storm at the current time. The final ADT position analyzed in the wrong spot however, so those numbers are likely a little higher, as usual.



We'll see what SAB/TAFB come back with.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31998
Quoting islander101010:
there is some turning there just sw of west cuba its a wet one too

yes has some turing but no real spin to it
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Bud is finally becoming better organized with a large spiral band in the NE and SE quadrant, and a developing Central Dense Overcast.


This bad boy looks better than 45
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Looks like the low near Roatan is actually moving a bit south of due east!
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there is some turning there just sw of west cuba its a wet one too
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Still no anticyclone:/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Caribbean AOI still not a Invest, though it has lower pressures and strong winds, they should atleast tag it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bud is finally becoming better organized with a large spiral band in the NE and SE quadrant, and a developing Central Dense Overcast.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31998
I say as the night progresses we should see the low take really good shape and not really elongated broad area of low pressure
and looking at it this well...

someone I don't really remember who but someone on here told me that these types of systems need convection yes right I agreed with that and lower wind shear to survive yes also so looking at sattelite out of the two spins the one NW of Cayman and the one E of rotan which one has developing convection and which has dying convection well it will have to be the one by rotan and which one is in lesser shear that would be the one near rotan so with this I expect the one NW of me to go bye bye as convection falls apart as we speak as we are going through D-Min and I'll keep my eye on the one that is near rotan which has at this moment developing convection plus grabing convection fron the one to my NW and lower shear
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Here flooding usually isnt life threatening more of an inconvenience as the island is very flat. Sure peoples homes/cars will get flooded these things can be cleaned/fixed or replaced. Thankfully we never get the flash floods you would see in areas with mountains/hills which takes lives with rains like this.



Yes, you're quite correct!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Wow that is broad lol


Ooorrrr there aren't enough stations in the area, but generally yes its a very broad low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting opal92nwf:
So when do you think this season's second storm will form?

A) May

B) June

C) July

D) Anytime before August

E) August


B
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Wind in East sustained at 31 mph now. Nasty as I have seen it with this AOI.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
45 mph at 8 pm PDT? I think so.



No joke it looks like a pinhole
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Quoting reedzone:
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
736 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

FLC035-230015-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-120523T0015Z/
FLAGLER FL-
736 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN FLAGLER COUNTY...

AT 736 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ESPANOLA...OR 6 MILES EAST OF ANDALUSIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ESPANOLA...BUNNELL AND PALM COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2939 8140 2949 8146 2967 8121 2949 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 235DEG 26KT 2947 8137

$$


You're getting some of that severe weather too? We need the rain!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




Elongated vortmax.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24016
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
736 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

FLC035-230015-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0076.000000T0000Z-120523T0015Z/
FLAGLER FL-
736 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN FLAGLER COUNTY...

AT 736 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ESPANOLA...OR 6 MILES EAST OF ANDALUSIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ESPANOLA...BUNNELL AND PALM COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

LAT...LON 2939 8140 2949 8146 2967 8121 2949 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 235DEG 26KT 2947 8137

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here flooding usually isnt life threatening more of an inconvenience as the island is very flat. Sure peoples homes/cars will get flooded these things can be cleaned/fixed or replaced. Thankfully we never get the flash floods you would see in areas with mountains/hills which takes lives with rains like this.



Quoting nigel20:
I hope so too!
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 362
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:




REALLY broad, elongated low pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31998
.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
quite a bit for sure and more to come by the looks of things hopefully Jamaica doesnt see that kind of rain it would be far worse there with the mountains/hills with flooding!




I hope so too!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
Another huge problem with the Carribean AOI is that not only is it very broad, but it's very poorly organized. I'm pretty sure we haven't been able to pin a CoC in the past few hours.
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:
couldn't ask for a better frame than this.



Wow that is broad lol
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451. aspectre
11:35 PM GMT on May 22, 2012
Derived from (NHC)ATCF data for TropicalDepressionAlberto for 22May6pmGMT:
The NHC has since declared Alberto to be post-tropical, so this is its Final Mapping
Its ATCF position was 33.4n73.2w
Its vector had changed from NEast at ~17.9mph(28.8k/h) to ENEast at ~17.2mph(27.6k/h)
MaximumSustainedWinds had held steady ~30knots(35mph)55k/h
And minimum pressure had held steady 1008millibars

As mentioned previously, TDAlbert was like a 15knot cyclone being pushed along by a 15knot windfield.
Since such a large part of its MaxSusWinds had been its travel-speed, it should have been weakening-to-extinction over the past 18hours.
So I'm surprised at its (former) persistence, especially in relatively cool water.
But then, Invest92L hung around the Azores as a (spinning)closed-Low for 3&1/2 days. So I'm kinda wondering whether these two storms are indicative of the NewNormal.
ie Is the ocean and troposphere being relatively warmer in comparison to the stratosphere (than back in the good ol' days) a main factor in cyclonic storms that "keep going and going and going..." long past what-shoulda-been their expiration dates.

For those who like to visually track TDAlberto's path... JAX is Jacksonville,Florida
HNC is CapeHatteras,NorthCarolina . NYC is NewYorkCity,NewYork . BDA is Bermuda

The northernmost dot on the counter-clockwise loop is where NHC declared 93L to be TSAlberto
The southernmost dot on the same loop is where TSAlberto became TDAlberto
The longest line-segment was a straightline projection thru its 2 most recent positions to
the eastern edge of the mapping area.
The easternmost dot on the longest line-segment was its most recent ATCF position...
...and ~3hours before reaching the position at which NHC declared Alberto to be expired.

Copy&paste jax, hnc, nyc, bda, 32.3n77.6w, 32.0n78.2w, 31.8n78.7w, 31.7n79.3w, 31.1n79.9w, 30.7n80.1w, 30.4n79.8w,30.4n79.1w, 30.5n78.3w, 30.7n77.1w, 30.7n77.1w-31.6n76.1w, 31.6n76.1w-32.6n74.7w, 32.6n74.7w-33.4n73.2w, 32.6n74.7w-39.87n57.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info. For more complete information, replace the 'comma&space's between 32.3n77.6w and the first 30.7n77.1w with dashes, AND leave the comma between the first and second 30.7n77.1w
(The forum program inserts spaces into overly long strings of letters&numbers&characters.
So I couldn't post a 'copy&paste'able copy of what generated my map.)
The previous mapping for comparison
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
450. Saltydogbwi1
11:34 PM GMT on May 22, 2012
quite a bit for sure and more to come by the looks of things hopefully Jamaica doesnt see that kind of rain it would be far worse there with the mountains/hills with flooding!




Quoting nigel20:
That's quite a bit of rain saltydog!
Member Since: October 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 362
449. K8eCane
11:32 PM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Southern Pender County near Rocky Point (just south of Burgaw).



Hey Im just down toward wilmington from you by about 15 miles (in Wrightsboro near Castle Hayne) and i swear i think i heard that when it happened to you today
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3121
448. wunderkidcayman
11:27 PM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting kmanislander:


This system is not organized though. The surface low is down near Roatan island but the strongest vorticity at the 850 and 925 mb levels in the atmosphere is stretched out from the North Coast of Honduras to the South coast of Cuba. Until they all align or one area becomes dominant not much is going to happen.

Quoting kmanislander:
The visible loop suggests more than one gyre within a broad area of low pressure over the NW Caribbean. One area is near Honduras and another is just to our NW. In fact pressure near Roatan seems to be higher than in our area if the obs there are believable.

I am wondering if the area of dominant surface low pressure is becoming more established near 20 North to our NW given the readings at buoy 42057 and here, all being around 1008.3 approximately.

give it time the one by rotan just started to get its act together and that on NW of us is in the dead zone and I am not too concerned about it by late tonight that one should be gone plus it looks elongated unlike the one by rotan perfectly rounded the only thing is the convection which it is taking care of that as we speek it is drawing convection from the blob to its N
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952
447. nigel20
11:25 PM GMT on May 22, 2012
Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
12.57 at Spotts on Grand Cayman since sunday midnight most of that fell yesterday. Pretty windy here right now moderate-heavy rain just started again .6 inch/hr




That's quite a bit of rain saltydog!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8000
446. ProgressivePulse
11:18 PM GMT on May 22, 2012
couldn't ask for a better frame than this.

Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5395
445. wunderkidcayman
11:17 PM GMT on May 22, 2012
hey guys that low near Rotan is spining good it just need to develop more convection it has a really good ball of it on its E side and its got alot to its N and E shear is falling in the area now running at 10-15kts so keep a very close eyeon it and truly first I see this system keeping control of the convection more so close to the center as we hit Peak D-Min
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11952

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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